The White House has a page on their website that discusses their Chained-CPI proposal. I find it a little confusing, but at least some parts of it are clear. First, the offer is contingent on two things. It will be rescinded if the Republicans do not agree to a “package that includes substantial revenue raised through tax reform.” And it will have to be “coupled with measures to protect the vulnerable and avoid increasing poverty and hardship.”
You won’t find much about it on Google or the blogs, but the protections for the vulnerable are called “benefit enhancements.” Here’s where things get a bit fuzzy. It appears that people would begin receiving a benefit enhancement at the age of 76 which would max out when they reached 85. Then, if they reach the age of 95, they’d receive another enhancement. Because of these enhancements, the White House claims, “the Budget proposal would not increase the poverty rate for Social Security beneficiaries, and would slightly reduce poverty among the very elderly according to SSA estimates.”
So, taken on it’s face, the Budget proposal would reduce Social Security benefits overall, but it would not increase the poverty rate. In fact, it would reduce the poverty rate.
This is only a proposal, obviously, but we should discuss the proposal in a reality-based way. If you start talking about cat food, you probably are listening to the wrong people or you are just fighting a straw man. The administration has no intention of impoverishing anyone.
There are two remaining critiques of the proposal that have some merit, or are at least debatable. The first is that it is bad politics. This critique can take various forms. Some think it’s stupid to propose slowing the growth of Social Security because the Republicans won’t agree to it and then will run against Democrats who support it. Others think it’s poor negotiating to offer up something the other side wants without getting them to agree to giving something in return. Others think it hurts the party brand or causes needless internal divisions. I can’t anticipate every critique, but one of the dumbest is this idea that the Republicans will get mileage out of accusing the Democrats of attacking Social Security. They will attack us no matter what we do. Besides, every one of their leaders lined up to praise the president (however faintly) for offering Chained CPI. All of that is on tape.
Chained CPI is in the budget for two reasons. The White House doesn’t want to keep the sequester, and they think Chained CPI is the least painful thing they can give the Republicans on entitlements. If they don’t offer something, the sequester will continue it’s slow-motion destruction of the federal government and all of our most cherished programs for the needy. The second reason it is in the budget is because it is proof that the president is willing to invite the vociferous criticism of his base in order to make a deal. This is something Republican senators told him they didn’t believe he would do. They told him that they would believe he was serious if he put it in his budget. It’s a signal, nothing more.
The final critique is that this is just stupid and unfair policy. Maybe it won’t impoverish anyone, but why should Social Security recipients be the ones to help balance the budget? Why should they take any kind of haircut? Why not the rich? Why not defense?
Well, the answer to that is partly that the proposal does insist that the wealthy pay more, and partly that we can’t get the Republicans to do what they don’t want to do. They want this change in the Consumer Price Index. I’d rather give it to them than raise the retirement age. If it were up to me, I’d raise the highest marginal tax rate substantially, raise the capital gains tax, massively raise the percent of profits corporations pay in taxes, and make more income subject to the Social Security tax. But it’s not up to me. It’s not even up to the president. He has a country to run, and he has to have some Republican cooperation in order to run it.
I can’t tell you how bored I am by people who throw around terms like “neo-liberal” and whine about the unfairness of it all.
Even John Boehner can’t control his caucus, and yet the president is supposed to be able to give the Republicans a take it or leave it budget proposal that offers them nothing that they want and have them agree to it?
Some people need to grow up.
I don’t mind the progressive outrage about Chained CPI when it is self-conscious lobbying. But when it is diverted into the “Obama is the devil” crap, I get irritated.
Let me be one of the first to say 100% agree, let’s be reality based on the totality of what’s in the President’s budget.
I think the universal pre-K is a big deal and a major addition to our social safety net.
Well said Booman.
This is one of the reasons I come here.
If he wanted to save more money, he would have cut the F-35 and the Littoral Combat Ship series. Not dangle Social Security. Hell, he could have supported raising the income cap over 106K or whatever it is.
Finally, the optics are bad. I think it’s a monumental fuckup in a series of economic fuckups by this Administration.
Offering the Republicans the Atrios budget plan would help how?
The President has already made headway in cutting military spending by capping F-22 production. He and Secretary Hagel can make a convincing argument to the entire country that both programs are boondoggles and cannot continue.
Make the goddamned effort. Not give in to the GOP terrorists.
I wasn’t responding to you military suggestion but your Social Security suggestion.
It’s a page out of the GOP’s playbook. Gain ground whenever you can. If this budget won’t pass and is a symbol, then add a marker to our side by raising the cap. Keep the idea in play for the next time.
It’s a morale booster for our side. Instead, he fucked up by cutting our best program.
Again, he is trying to pass something, not make political statements.
But why? He knows it won’t pass, or ought to by now. Heck, the sympathetic analyses (Ezra, for example) are basically saying the WH did this as a political maneuver, because they know the GOP won’t accept revenue. As a political maneuver, I just can’t see how it doesn’t suck donkey balls.
Big picture, things will only pass if we get Pelosi her gavel back, which was always going to be a reach as it was. This budget…doesn’t make that any easier.
As a political maneuver it is just slightly different from all his previous political maneuvers. This isn’t the first time the Chained CPI cat has been let out of the bag, it is only the most concrete example.
But he is trying to get a deal. You need to get that through your head. He is working the Senate to accept revenue. That’s why the Republican senators dined with him tonight.
How is he trying to get a deal? He knows this won’t fly. So what’s the next step? Backing down on the revenue side? Once he bought into the deficit fear mongering it all became a giveaway, not a deal.
He doesn’t know it won’t fly. It may very well fly in the Senate. And that’s the prerequisite for ending the sequester. The Senate is significantly less radical than the House and much closer to the financial sector and the Pentagon.
The president is making progress with the Senate on guns and immigration, even though those things still have a rough ride to get through the House.
All this analysis based on the idea that the president is only positioning himself is errant. He is looking to break this impasse on everything. And he is winning right now. He is bending them.
Making progress in the Senate? So what? That doesn’t get anything passed. And frankly, passionate as I am about gun control and immigration, those can wait while we fight against economic policy that’s so regressive it won’t matter whether the guns are blazing as immigrants fight to get out of a failed nation.
Do you understand how pitiful your “he is winning right now. He is bending them” sounds? Like something out of a flying saucer cult — “this time it will come, it will be here any minute now”.
But don’t worry .. Fred Hiatt is now jerking off over Obama’s budget .. yup .. Freddie is now lauding Obama’s “seriousness” .. I hope that makes Booman thrilled
“I hope that makes Booman thrilled”
What the fuck kind of comment is that? Keep it civil.
What does it mean? It means Boo is now on the same side of the debate as Fred Hiatt!!!! Is that where you want to be on anything? Most likely not.
I can get it through my head that you think that’s what he’s doing. Heck, maybe even he thinks he can get a deal, though I’m leaning against that given what Sargent, Ezra, and the like are saying about the state of play.
But it’s a fool’s errand to try to get a deal. None is coming, unless it’s truly horrendous. So offering to cut SS anyway makes no sense. Even less sense if they KNOW there’s no deal to be had.
Anyway, between this and my remarks below, I think we risk going in circles on the topic. We shall see how it plays out.
So, you didn’t read the post at all and proceeded to repeat the same progressive whine that has been said for days now.
You aren’t going to get a 100% progressive budget through this Congress. If Chained CPI is too much for you, what would you offer that the GOP want in exchange to eliminate the sequester? If you can’t answer that question, you aren’t serious.
We do not have the sequester because the GOP demanded it. The sequester is law because Obama tried getting a deal on entitlements by being too cute by half. He miscalculated, and we’re all paying the price. Regardless, he wants entitlement cuts. That was the point of the sequester.
You’re really editorializing here. Obama wasn’t trying to be “too cute by half”. His administration came up with the idea for the sequester, but it wasn’t as if they thought it was good, preferred policy. It was a desperate gambit to get the House Republicans to raise the debt limit, not destroy our credit rating, and avoid a worldwide economic meltdown.
Yes, the sequester is dumb policy. But it was a last-ditch response to the incredible irresponsibility of the GOP. So in that sense, they GOP did “demand” it. Maybe the Obama administration miscalculated by going with the sequester, but it was a creative response to an impossible situation. It wasn’t driven by some slavering corporatist desire of Obama to cut social spending.
I say “too cute by half” because he tried using the debt limit to force those entitlement cuts. As a last ditch effort, he came up with the sequester thinking it would be too painful to the military community that we would avoid it (that would be the miscalculation). He made the mistake of negotiating on the debt limit when he should have told them to pound sand. That wasn’t a miscalculation; that was preferred policy. Unless you count Boehner not being able to deliver a miscalculation…
I disagree that the administration saw the debt limit as a vehicle for entitlement cuts they preferred. Entitlement cuts were the price for raising the debt limit.
And I totally disagree that Obama should have told the GOP to pound sand. Where do you get that idea? You know how irresponsible the GOP is, and how powerless John Boehner is. Without some kind of carrot to feed to his members, the House would’ve refused to raise the debt ceiling and we’d be in a 2nd great Depression right now.
Wow–people have forgotten entirely that the Republicans were holding us hostage with the debt ceiling. The President wasn’t angling to cut SS and Medicare–he wanted a clean bill to raise the debt ceiling.
No, he didn’t.
I’m beginning to think you are just kind of an ass. Seriously, I would not want you in my foxhole with me.
You may be completely ignorant–but the Republicans certainly were paying attention.
There are plenty more if you need additional proof that you are completely wrong.
http://majorityleader.gov/blog/2011/08/debt-limit-tick-tock.html
“Today, the House is poised to vote on a debt limit package that cuts spending more than it increases the debt limit, does not raise taxes, and implements spending caps to restrain future spending. This agreement marks considerable progress from President Obama’s original stance which was asking for a clean debt limit increase without spending cuts, and then his insistence on raising taxes on families and small business people. The final package demonstrates that House Republicans have begun to change the culture in Washington and get our fiscal house in order so that this economy can grow and create jobs.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903999904576465843244525786.html?mod=djemEditorialPage
_h
“Then again, it has long been clear that Mr. Obama isn’t interested in spending reform. In February he proposed a budget that spent more than any in U.S. history. In April he demanded that Congress pass a “clean” debt ceiling hike that included no spending cuts whatsoever.”
A “100% progressive budget”? Is that a joke? I’d settle for 30%, Get serious.
Only Booman is watching this at the speed at which it is actually happening–everybody else is watching too fast. You can’t judge the optics until they are actually there. I’m watching Axelrod on Maddow as I type, so this is pretty weird, but what Obama is doing is what he always does, and it always starts to look pretty good after the bill is passed and the Republicans are stamping their little feet in rage, the ACA, the 2011 budget, and so on, and this will be the same. Raising or removing the income cap on FICA contributions will still be available when Social Security really needs fixing, too.
I can’t tell how you bored I am by people who throw around terms like “neo-liberal” and whine about the unfairness of it all.
Because you can’t stand the truth?
Because I don’t like debating morons.
Sure, then why do you act like one with this post? We should be expanding Social Securtiy, not cutting out. Also, is this a budget that will help get people to the polls next year? No!!
the ads are already underway, starting with this guy.
Oooh. I am so scared.
Hmmm, well looky looky…time for popcorn?
“Club For Growth Questions GOP Rep. For Attacking Obama On Social Security Cuts”
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/club-for-growth-questions-gop-rep-for-attacking
Why is “what we should be doing” even part of this conversation. We should be doing a lot of things that we cannot do.
And the Dems have no responsibility for being in this situation, no doubt. What we should be doing belongs in every political conversation. Otherwise politics is worth nothing at all.
Those would be the “morons” that pointed out that Clinton’s Telecom dereg wouldn’t lead to lower cable and phone bills and better service.
The same “morons” that objected to the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the “modernization” of commodity futures. How’s the recession/depression working out for you?
And just wait until ACA kicks in and public schools are replaced with charter schools.
The same “morons” that point out the real problems this country has RIGHT NOW that need attention and not some possible problem that’s decades, if ever, in the future.
The same “morons” that were conscious before the Thatcher/Reagan Revolution and had to work damn hard to rid our brains of all the WWII and Cold War propaganda.
A “moron” like Elizabeth Warren?
“Overthinking” doesn’t serve you well.
I don’t mind progressives arguing against this policy. It’s bad policy. It’s just better than the available alternatives.
wrt
1. She’s a Senator and they are always polite even to their worst foes. She is speaking to an audience larger than right of center bloggers and therefore, terms such as “neo-liberal” would be a communication fail. So she settled for “shocked” at Obama’s budget instead of calling him a granny starving monster. But she’s saying the same thing as those you dismiss as “morons:”
2. Not seeing what you claim she said.
“Disabled and orphans” would be your first clue.
Means tested social security programs
(Are you now arguing that “means testing” is preferable to chained CPI?)
You seriously think that chained CPI won’t play a role in those “means testing” calculations?
Right. They would not.
Whatever makes you think that such calculations would independent of each other and there would be no interaction?
How about the explicit promise that those programs will not be subject to Chained CPI?
Ha, ha. Would that be like the explicit promises Obama made to close Gitmo, reject an individual mandate for healthcare, and not cut Social Security?
How much more income and wealth inequality would you consider reasonable and desirable in your fools errand of appeasing the “haves” and their crazy-ass lackeys in Congress?
So, now I am supposed to debate you on the premise that their proposal isn’t their proposal?
We’re not engaged in a debate as you refuse to respond to my direct questions and then get all huffy about challenges to your beliefs. And your principle belief seems to be that Old Age Social Security Retirement isn’t solvent and therefore, benefit cuts are necessary. That’s as factually challenged as what the global climate change deniers spout.
Well, would you like to define solvency for me then so I know what the word means?
You can go to the Social Security page on solvency provisions and see what our options are for dealing with the insolvency. But that is probably a pointless exercise since the program isn’t insolvent at all.
I don’t know why they calculate all those different ways to address their insolvency. They must be wankers.
I know that the program is very solvent, but here is the latest report on its insolvency.
I know all those words about don’t compute for you, but they are not same thing as saying that climate change doesn’t exist because Noah’s Ark.
Can you interpret the first sentence?
1983? Oh, yes that was the year we raised our payroll taxes to build a trust fund to cover the baby boomer retirement bubble. So, there was no trust fund and therefore no interest earnings in 1983. Projections out 75 years are mostly worthless.
That’s three years earlier than projected before the recession, but many years further out in time than was originally projected for the trust fund. It’s working, albeit better, than expected. The trust fund is supposed to run out and the system returns to pay-go.
The problem with DI is separate from that of retirement coverage. Major contributors to the problem are offshoring jobs, poor health care for low wage workers, failure to recognize that the bodies of people engaged in physical labor wear out faster than those that sit at a desk, and welfare “reform.”
Interpret the first sentence?
Yes. We’ve reached the point where SS is paying out more than it is taking in, and this is disguised by the fact that we make a lot in interest on the surplus. So, for the next ten years or so we will actually still be making more money from Social Security than we are paying out. Then we will spend 10 years bankrupting the system. After that, benefits will be reduced.
So, the system is insolvent and will be totally broke in about 20 years.
We can deal with that fact now or later.
Wrong. After that we return to pay-go. Possible that it wouldn’t need any fix at that point to continue paying full benefits. However, if a shortfall materializes, we’ll have plenty of advance notice and time to consider all the possible remedies.
I don’t have any idea what you mean.
Social Security operated on a “pay-go” basis for forty-five years. As benefits were increased, contribution rates were increased as well. Revenues and distributions were generally in balance. Had there not been such a huge baby boom (larger in the second half than the first) followed by a baby bust a pre-paid trust fund may not have been prudent. Had the cash collected for the trust fund not been squandered on income tax cuts and the Pentagon, we wouldn’t have the Pete Petersons freak-out. It’s not enough for them to have had the luxury of our trust fund monies in their pockets or portfolio accounts for three decades, they have every intention of not paying it back. All they have to do is convince the dumbasses in this country that starving granny is necessary.
Why pay-go is viable twenty years from now is that the senior population will be in decline for at least ten years.
We have significant current economic problems that if not tackled will metastasize into monsters and starving granny will do nothing alleviate.
I would love to see this thread resurfaced as a top-level discussion. So much of the discussion on this issue has been disputed in terms of personal character. I’d like to see a technical discussion continue on the practical prospects for maintaining social security benefits in light of increasingly unfavorable demographics. In particular I’d like to explore what it means once payments exceed interest income and it becomes necessary to redeem the assets of the trust in order to continue to fund benefits.
I am skeptical that we can be assured of a market for the liquidation of those assets. Refusing to redeem them would be one particularly effective way to “starve the beast”, achieving the goal of many on the right to dismantle Social Security once and for all. As W said: “There is no trust.” If those guys have their hands on the levers when the time comes, I would expect them to exploit the situation to achieve their goals while pretending there’s no other choice.
Can’t even discuss Social Security broadly and mostly conceptually without accounting and that’s when any meaningful discussion ends.
First, it wouldn’t be “a market.” It would be the same market that the Treasury uses everyday.
Second, if refinancing from intergovernmental debt to public debt could not be done, that would be the least of the economic problems this country would face.
Third, relying on the market to fund the SSI trust fund would be privatization and therefore, that’s not what we should even be entertaining.
By “a market” I mean whatever means is available to convert the social security trust assets into benefit payments. My understanding is that because the assets are special issue bonds, the treasury is the only market. This has its advantages, but also also subjects the redemption of treasury assets to the cooperation of the treasury and ultimately the budget process. A hostile treasury and/or congress could and would exploit this situation — not only to the detriment of social security, but also other programs. This ought to be plain enough from the budget showdowns as well as the proposals of Rep. Ryan and others.
Social security’s enemies exploit fear about its solvency as a near term strategy to undermine the program as well as discretionary programs they don’t like. But in the longer term, neglecting the question also works in their advantage. It’s like placing a double or nothing bet on future control of the government. Should the GOP control the White House and Congress when things come to a boil, we will have lost some of the counterweights that otherwise might have kept their intentions in check.
YES!
Cuts for veterans too.
Do you like debating senior citizens?
Is Rachel Maddow a moron?
Moron? No. Wrong sometimes? Yes. For example, see her howling that Obama was doing DADT repeal wrong.
They will attack us no matter what we do. Besides, every one of their leaders lined up to praise the president (however faintly) for offering Chained CPI. All of that is on tape.
You really don’t get it, do you. They were daring him to put it in writing, and he took the bait. The better question is why Obama values the opinion of Bob Rubin and Pete Peterson of the American people. Also, you do know that Obama has been saying that Social Security needs to be fixed since 2006, right? Also, it’s a tax increase for the middle class.
It’s not a tax increase. It’s a benefit cut. It’s not even a benefit cut as that is usually understood, but I’ll accept it is a cut to avoid being contentious. And Social Security does need some tweaks. It’s not an emergency but that doesn’t mean it is sustainable.
Finally, the Republicans were not daring him to put it in print. They were saying that they thought Obama’s offer was insincere.
The GOP is the party that wants cuts to Social Security and everyone knows it. That isn’t going to change.
Do you think people think the GOP is pro-stimulus just because some of their lawmakers took credit for stimulus projects?
It doesn’t work that way. They attacked us for cutting Medicare to pay for Obamacare, even though they wanted to cut Medicare to pay for nothing. They have no shame, and we can’t operate as if they do.
The GOP is the party that wants cuts to Social Security and everyone knows it. That isn’t going to change.
And so is Obama. He has put it into print. Then again, he’s been saying this since 2009, if not 2006. Are you going to deny that? So it’s obviously something he wants. Sorry Boo, you’re wrong on this.
This is a joke. Really. Where progressives got this idea that Obama, personally, has this active desire to cut social spending is beyond me. If that’s the case, why wasn’t the administration pushing to cut SS during the productive 2009-2010 Congress?
It’s because today they are acting within the confines of a much worse Congress. That there will be needless, stupid cuts to social programs is the price of the 2010 elections. It’s the price of power: Republicans still have a lot and we can’t wish that away.
That’s where progressives (reality-based people, which evidently means not most of the people on this blog) got the idea that he wants to cut social spending.
There are plenty of recent diaries at Daily Kos that make perfectly clear that Obama wants to cut social spending. I can’t believe that this blog is now to the right of Daily Kos. It used to be the other way around. This blog is now a ghetto for Obama dead-enders.
clear that he wants to cut Social Security while he was still president elect.
But hey, facts are “boring”.
Social Security needs tweaks? Why, so Republicans don’t have to pay back what they borrowed from the fund?
Bob, I hate to do this but you aren’t being serious. You just aren’t. The right wing is a force that must be reckoned with. We cannot make meritorious arguments about ideal policy and then expect those policies to be enacted. Policy decisions must be made with a view to attracting enough bipartisan support for those policies to become law.
I hate to do this to you, Booman, but are you saying that if you can’t lick ’em, join ’em?
I don’t argue that the right wing isn’t a force to be reckoned with, and most others here aren’t arguing that. They are saying that the right is intransigent and offering them a little isn’t going to satisfy them. It only makes Obama look weaker and hurts Dems running in 2014.
Chained CPI is a bad policy, quite the opposite of what should be done, and it only weakens the Democrats’ position.
I would rather the country go into default and let the Republicans own it than the slow starvation of old people.
How about the slow starvation of old republican people? It doesn’t sound so bad like that.
Hmmm, well looky looky…time for popcorn?
“Club For Growth Questions GOP Rep. For Attacking Obama On Social Security Cuts”
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/club-for-growth-questions-gop-rep-for-attacking
Yup. There it is.
Yeah – time for popcorn if you want to sit and watch CNN talking about Obama cutting SS all day. Nobody pays attention to the CFG.
I agree with the thrust of your post – the “Obama is a monster” stuff is quite tiresome. They can just stick to “Obama’s being a real idiot on this one”…because I think that is true.
I can see what their thinking is on this, but I just think it’s stupid politics in light of the sad fact that winning the 2014 elections is the whole ball of wax. Pretty much everything Obama and the Dems do should be with that in mind, I think. And Chained CPI blows that game to hell, in my view.
Mostly, I do think you’re way off-base on this part, however:
“one of the dumbest is this idea that the Republicans will get mileage out of accusing the Democrats of attacking Social Security.”
How can you have lived through 2010 and 2012 and believe this? They’re already using it – the congressman chairing their House campaign committee couldn’t get in front of a camera fast enough today to say Obama’s reaming seniors.
“They will attack us no matter what we do.”
True enough. But their attacks are more likely to stick when they’re plausible or have a kernel of truth. Being able to say “it’s right in Obama’s budget” should more than do the trick.
“Besides, every one of their leaders lined up to praise the president (however faintly) for offering Chained CPI. All of that is on tape.”
First, those dickheads are coverying themselves by being very careful not to use the magic words (“cut” “chained CPI” etc.) when expressing support for entitlement cuts – they say “reforms” or “savings” – that makes it harder to cut ads quoting them, and low information voters won’t respond to nuance on this.
And second, this doesn’t matter anyway. The zombie-eyed granny starver himself ran against Obama’s “raid” of Medicare, and fairly successfully, just by kicking a bunch of sand in the air and lying about what the ACA did so much that people got tired of correcting it. I know they lost the election, but the “better on Medicare” numbers were unnervingly close considering they put Paul fking Ryan on the fking ticket. A large minority of the country actually believed the fox should be the one to guard the hen house and not the farmer, so to speak. Now, they won’t even have to lie!
These assholes ran and won by mendaciously posing as the principled defenders of Medicare in 2010 – by being able to characterize the ACA’s Medicare savings as cruel cuts (there’s that kernel of truth), even though Obamacare didn’t touch benefits and actually closed the donut hole. Now they can pose as staunch defenders of SS and be able to point to real cuts in the president’s budget. I think it’s extremely naive to think they won’t do this, and succeed.
In the end, I think Obama’s budget takes the wind out of Dems’ sails as far as attacking the Ryan budget. Now, the GOP can say “oh yeah? Obama wanted to cut Social Security! We stopped him!” The White House’s belief that their “reasonableness” will box the GOP in is the kind of naivety I thought they’d been disabused of. I don’t think Obama’s a monster who has always wanted to kill the New Deal. And I still support him in general. But I agree with the outrage brigade that this is a massive unforced error.
you contradict yourself when you agree with me that the Medicare attacks were shameless distortions and that it didn’t matter and then insist that the kernel of truth is so damaging on Chained-CPI.
Plus, you miss the point that the idea is to get a deal. I think so many progressives have been hoping for no deal that they think sequestration is preferable. I assure you that sequestration is far deadlier, literally, than Chained CPI.
Obama is trying to get a deal and he has to offer something.
Your argument assumes that no Republicans will vote for this deal. Well, if they won’t, then it will never be voted on at all. And then it will just be a he said/she said about who wanted to cut Social Security, which was the case before the budget was produced.
I guess the distilled version of my anxiety is that in my lifetime, the GOP tends to win the “he said she said” battles in campaigns, even when they should be laughed off the stage for trying. They just ran as the true protectors of Medicare, twice, and got away with it both times, and won big one of the times. And here, they can say Obama proposed to cut Social Security and they never did. That’s….not good.
And my post is not contradictory – they’ll say anything to attack Dems, true, false, ridiculous, or otherwise. I agree, I get that. But the attacks work better when they can actually say something that’s true, or at least true if you squint and look at it from a certain angle. The Medicare “raid” line of attack was bullshit of course, but was based on something that actually happened. Here, they can point right at Obama’s budget when they scream. It’s a fucking smoking gun, whether it gets voted on or not.
You are right that Obama’s budget is better than the sequester. But that’s irrelevant. We aren’t getting Obama’s budget or getting rid of the sequester. There’s no deal to be made, unless Obama lets Ryan draft it. That’s the premise I’m working from. With that as a starting point, there’s nothing good that can come from offering a budget that cuts the safety net.
You’re also probably right that some of the “manic progressive” set wants no deal, sequester or no. I wouldn’t count myself among them. I just think the reality we face is that there will be no deal regardless. The GOP has decided to hold their breath and ride the sequester out rather than give an inch on anything.
Given all of this, like I said, I can only see this as a massive blunder. I’d love it if we could just go about our business and govern, but we can’t and won’t until the teabagger domestic terrorists are kicked to the curb where they belong -and this makes it harder to get rid of them. That’s just how I see it.
you were wrong. As I noted in the other diary, in January 2008 I wrote:
Your reply:
Obama is worse than Bill Clinton. There is no doubt of that now
…….
I don’t know what Obama is. I think he wants good things for the country, but what he does vs what he says makes no sense anymore at all, politically or policywise.
But worse than Clinton? No. Not even close. He’s serially shattered the hopes of his most hopeful supporters, but hasn’t (yet?) done anywhere near the kind of damage Clinton left behind. But “not as bad as Clinton” won’t get him near the top of history’s “best president” lists. Shoulda coulda got there. And at least this fall has some of the dignity of true tragedy.
He is responsible for the foreclosure crisis.
I don’t think Clinton would have walked away from that deal.
Obama was not even President, and you wanted him to agree to the demands of Bush’s Secretary of the Treasury? Getting what in return? Something the Bushies were going to structure on their way out the door?
Only a naive fool would have taken that deal. It was bad economics and bad politics, let alone insulting and desperate.
Aha. Now this is why I’ve been lurking here for months, and why I’ve signed up here today.
I dunno about the politics, although I’m pretty sure the O-Team has already scoped out how they plan to play it, but I do know that if we can get those “enhanced benefits” for the very poor elderly, it’s worth doing a chained-CPI for the better off folks.
Progressives have been trying to get a guaranteed income at some level for decades. Here’s a gateway to just that.
But no, they freak out. Thanks, Booman.
My concern with this is that there are going to be fewer and fewer “better off folks” on Social Security as we go forward and more people are retiring with underfunded 401ks rather than stable pension benefits – or to put it another way, the “better off” people will be comparatively poorer than earlier SS beneficiaries. So, yeah, the enhanced benefits aspect is good, but won’t be nearly sufficient to cancel out Chained CPI, because even the comparatively better-off folks coming into the system with smaller and smaller nesteggs will be harmed by those cuts.
I’m not an expert on how the numbers would crunch – so I could be wrong about how it plays out, but on a sort of big-picture level, this is my worry.
The GOP leadership has no problem publicly marketing the most subversive, destructive extremist neo-fascist bullshit around, while Obama starts with weak tweaks on rightwing ideology and negotiates from there. If he mirrored the GOP, he’d have started with returning to Eisenhower/FDR tax brackets, ending corporate subsidies, increasing SS, Medicare, and Medicaid payments, and all the things you say you’d do.
Instead we get strong rhetoric about how we will not allow “entitlements” to be touched, followed a week or two later with a plea to the GOP to do just that. It’s heartbreaking to say it, but he’s acting like a crazy person. Why would he set himself up like that? The GOP will certainly attack, but now he’s given them concrete evidence to claim that Obama/Dem rhetoric about the “most vulnerable” is just cynical politics of the worst kind — that Obama agrees that it’s the old and disabled and poor who need to pay for the “job creators'” crimes against America.
Obama has now officially endorsed the rightwing lie that SS has something to do with the budget, the deficit, or anything else. The payment cut will not lower the deficit by even a dime. He obviously knows this, but chooses the lie anyway. He’s also exponentially increased the truth-sound of the hoary GOP meme that SS won’t be there for current workers. How better to undermine support for the programs until they can finally destroyed? I still don’t believe he’s evil, but but how do your argue that SS’s demise isn’t what, deep down, he really wants? Tough sell.
There are no details, but it sure sounds like the plan is to means-test SS, and probably Medicare and Medicaid — Make it just another kind of food stamp/public housing ghetto for the oligarchs to escalate the attack on the “takers”.
A president’s real job is to be the nations’ philosopher-with-clout. By endorsing the GOP lies that taxes are bad, big government is bad, the old and poor somehow deserve to pay for the economy that the oligarchs broke, he shatters all hope that there is anywhere in the system to turn to. In all but the pettiest of details, he’s now the one waving the flag for the Reagan revolution.
If anyone needs to grow up and be reality based it’s those who scrabble endlessly to figure out how Obama means well, but has no choice, merely being the president of the United States. I really thought he had a shot at being one of the great presidents whose legacy would be a better America. What he’s left us instead is between a quick bullet to the head and a long, slow drink of hemlock.
Dave, you are freaking out, plain and simple.
You are totally overreacting.
I want to be concise her, so for now I leave your opening bit about negotiating style by the wayside.
His rhetoric about the “most vulnerable” is not cynical for the simple reason that his proposal provides benefit enhancements for the most vulnerable.
If he’s agreeing that the elderly need to help pay for the oligarchy’s screwups, well, the elderly overwhelming vote for the oligarchs’ preferred policies. I see a lot of Social Security recipients at Tea Party rallies and the Republican National Convention. They aren’t generally “vulnerable.”
As for Social Security not having anything to do with the budget deficit, that’s only narrowly true, and it’s misleading to push it too far. Money the government doesn’t borrow from Social Security, it must find elsewhere. And, long-term, the government will have to loan money to Social Security rather than borrow from it. Don’t take a left-wing talking point and turn it into scripture.
In any case, these enhanced benefits are an alternative to means-testing. Rather than lower some people’s benefits or cut them off, you actually raise some people’s benefits. Obviously, that’s within the context of the reset COLA, but from that point forward, that’s how it would work.
What we should work on is getting them to create a COLA index specific to seniors and use that as the replacement for Chained-CPI.
“Long-term” is decades away before the government “has to” loan money to SS. That may or may not happen if we ever get more than a half dozen progressives in power. It’s irrelevant to the present manufactured crisis, which is about taxes and the existence of the debt ceiling itself.
So the old folks deserve to sink deeper into poverty because some of them are morons? Nice. A new frontier for collective punishment.
And yes, I am freaking out. But overreacting? I don’t think so. We were promised just weeks ago that “entitlements” were absolutely not on the table. Now this. Somehow to you it is somehow not a problem that Obama, with no sense of shame, can shift between talking like FDR lite one week and proposing laws like Reagan the next. I think it’s worth freaking out about.
You choose to ignore the ideological consequences of having a president, once the last hope for a reversal of the neocon/reactionary mindset that has become the new normal, now accepting Reaganism hook, line, and sinker. If you think this is good for the direction of the country or the political outlook for the Dem Party, I think you’re just whistling past the graveyard. Or you’re just fine with Reaganism cementing its place as the undisputed “reality”.
Whatever made you think that “means testing” is necessary? It’s just another proposed solution in search of a problem. Accepting it as a given is sloppy and ignorant thinking.
Your concession that it’s OK for progressives to argue against chained CPI in the abstract (“It’s bad policy”) is falling apart here as you’re determined to fend off any criticism of the President.
You’re doing two very dangerous things here:
I’ll just make this my one comment. Your post referred to the criticism that the President’s actions are creating needless internal divisions, but it was the one criticism you didn’t counter. The omission (presumably unintentional) is interesting given how focused you’ve been on the cracks in the Republican party.
It appears that you’d respect only one kind of criticism of Obama’s including chained CPI in his budget: one that offers a less damaging budget proposal that the Republicans would accept in order to end the sequester. I don’t know that that’s possible. Once Republicans knew that Obama would be willing to break the Democrats’ promise to defend Social Security, there could be no scenario in which they would accept less. Unfortunately, Obama telegraphed this before the election when he said that Social Security needed to be “tweaked” (a deliberately obfuscating word).
So I concede that I can’t meet the conditions of your debate. But this should offer you very little solace. Whether you think it’s fair or not, something has just broken between President Obama and every demographic in the country outside of Obama’s acolytes, the Democratic establishment, and the associates of Lindsey Graham or David Brooks. For Democrats to regain the House or even to keep the Senate, Democrats will have to either run against the administration or the administration and its defenders will have to make extraordinary efforts to lead on popular issues and pray that it works. Unfortunately, I expect what we’ve seen in the past: an unpopular decision combined with a lack of ownership of the political consequences. Resources devoted to spin combined with an unmasked contempt at having to spin. Following this route of treating Obama’s disappointed base with derision would only contribute to the defeat of the Democratic party. I’d be interested to hear how you’d advise the administration to minimize the political damage from his budget, whether the Republicans accept it or not.
Since neither side of this debate will know for a long time who’s right, I propose that we agree to some criteria. I’ll admit that I was wrong if Republicans end the sequester under Obama’s budget conditions and if we don’t lose a significant number of seats in either the House or the Senate in 2014.
Look, it’s the job of progressive organizations and spokespeople to oppose any diminution of Social Security benefits. That’s understood. The official line is that these cuts are unnecessary, unfair, wrong, bad policy, and all arguments in the furtherance of that stance are fair game.
So, that’s what you are going to hear from progressives and progressive organizations.
That’s a luxury that they have because they don’t have to govern. All I ask my readers is to be a little more sophisticated. Absorb the arguments against this policy, digest them, and then put yourselves in the shoes of the administration. Judge them by what they do in the context of what is possible.
That’s all I ask.
My comment did what you ask. I conceded that once Obama expressed his openness to cutting Social Security and Medicare, there is no budget that Republicans would accept to end the sequester that doesn’t include those cuts. I’ve got nothin’.
But pragmatism isn’t the only thing asked of me by a long shot. I’m asked to swallow that a cut not be considered a cut, that Social Security be associated with budget deficits because the budget won’t be able to continue raiding it indefinitely, that the “vulnerable” as they’re advantageously defined will be protected, that the intended consequences of the cut will be the actual consequences, that this budget can be fairly described as “balanced”. And if I refuse any of these additional asks or allude to why we’re in this no-win situation in the first place, I’m met with condescension.
Look, it’s the job of this administration and its spokespeople to deflect any criticism of their actions. That’s understood. All I ask from you is to be brutally honest in your analysis. Be sophisticated about the larger context in which cutting Social Security and Medicare plays out. Put yourself in the shoes of all of the people who are directly affected by these decisions. That’s all I ask.
Dave – you did freak out a little bit, but I agree with you on the strategic aspect of this. PBO is so focused on a Grand Bargain that he is willing to “break the seal” and offer to cut social security. He seems remarkably naive as to how this will be perceived in the press and public.
This is destructive to the democratic party because part of their “brand identification” was that they would never cut SS. This has been their primary source of support among older people, many of whom have always wanted to figure out a reason to vote for republicans because of their close identification with social issues. PBO has now handed them that reason. There is now no difference between the dems and reps on old people’s issues except that the dems want to cut SS.
Hello 2014 elections!
Chained CPI is based on the idea of “substitution behavior” where people make different purchasing decisions as prices go up. It sounds like real science. Lemme explain it in layman’s terms: When prices go up faster than your income, you are forced into a lower quality of life. Just as the “when beef is more expensive people eat chicken” example says, people have to select other options that they obviously think are less desirable – this is a plan that leads to a lower quality of life – no? And what happens when chicken becomes too expensive? Catfood.
Obama doesn’t have to face re-election, but a lot of other dems do. This is the political equivalent of fragging. Talk about all the fine points of protecting the vulnerable with complicated plans all you want with all kinds of charts and analysis, but that’s a really weak defense against: “Democrats want to cut social security and we stood against it.” It has already started.
This was just a really bad move by the administration that will not succeed on any level. It won’t even convince the public that it’s the reps that are the obstacle.
Of course it won’t help the Dems. What’s their campaign slogan going to be? Reaganomics destroyed out economy, but we fixed it by keeping the ideology and giving a couple little policy tweaks here and there? Or maybe they could just go with “Compassionate Conservatism” if nobody else copyrighted it first.
There is only one legitimate proposal for Social Security that Democrats should make during a recession.
Expand it.
Put the expansion up for an up-or-down vote and dare Republicans to vote against it.
BTW, expansion unlike all of the legerdemain cutting would in fact — reduce the deficit.
That’s the reality-based argument.
The question is whether the White House really has another agenda than what they ran on. If they don’t, they better drop this political loser of chained-CPI faster than a hot potato. Because it is still political suicide to even blow a kiss to the third rail of US politics. It might not matter to the White House, but I bet it matters to a bunch of Democrats up for election.
A million times this.
Really? How?
Filibuster in the Senate, so no vote and not enough signatures for a discharge petition in the House, so no vote there either.
So what’s the point?
I hate this budget item, but I think there’d be a way to make it more effective:
Step 1) change the filibuster rules as Reid is still threatening to do.
Step 2) hold a preceding up-or-down vote on increasing Social Security.
Step 3) when this doesn’t pass, submit a budget that includes chained CPI in exchange for a lot.
This would at least give Democrats the cover of defending the program.
Both of those are pathetic excuses until the Democrats in Congress: (1) announce support for expansion, (2) make the case to the public about how it deals with the deficit, (3) hammers the Republicans and the President for the idea that Social Security is a deficit problem, (4) tells the people the truth about how Social Security operates (it holds public debt; cuts are a form of default), (5) allows the public to respond (hint:they are already in favor), (6) force the issue into debate in the media, (7) and get the AARP off their butts and moving on the issue.
This is a case where conventional wisdom about procedure is just defeatism.
at some point it will occur to to wonder if “progressives” aren’t every bit as invested in opposing Obama, as teabaggers are. as a famous man once said, “not a dime’s worth of difference”.
This is an interesting context in which to approvingly quote George Wallace.
Politics Aside, the Good and Bad Economics of Chained CPI
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jodi-beggs/chained-cpi_b_2297631.html
Mapping Out the Arguments Against Chained CPI
http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/mapping-out-arguments-against-chained-cpi
5 Reasons Chained CPI Is Bad For Social Security
http://blog.aarp.org/2013/02/11/5-reasons-chained-cpi-is-bad-for-social-security/
Robert Reich
Chained CPI for Social Security would hurt seniors
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Robert-Reich/2013/0404/Chained-CPI-for-Social-Security-would-hurt-
seniors
Wonkbook: The trick of chained-CPI
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/08/wonkbook-the-trick-of-chained-cpi/
What is the Chained CPI and Why Does It Matter to Your Mom?
http://www.momsrising.org/blog/what-is-the-chained-cpi-and-why-does-it-matter-to-your-mom/
“Chaining” inflation gauge would hurt Social Security recipients
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505146_162-57560374/chaining-inflation-gauge-would-hurt-social-security-
recipients/
Don’t let Washington Cut Veterans Benefits
http://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/work/social_security/2013-02/Chained-CPI-Veterans.pdf
Don’t let Washington Hurt Women by Cutting Social Security Benefits
http://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/work/social_security/2013-02/Chained-CPI-Women.pdf
How many times has Obama made a suggestion that the left wing hated, only to be proven right a few months later? I haven’t any idea what he’s up to, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and see what happens.
And thank you to everyone for trying to have a civilized conversation. Kos has once again become a rox/sux battlefield. It’s nice to have an alternative.
Can you give examples of Obama making “a suggestion that the left wing hated, only to be proven right a few months later?” Or are you suggesting that Obama has been proved right that he has the power to summarily kill Americans? That he has been proved right that a single payer option is bad policy? Have people stopped going bankrupt because of medical costs thanks to ACA?
And no, dKos is not currently a battlefield. Very few people are saying that Obama “rocks”. It is more like a place after a battle, where mopping up operations take care of a few dead-enders, than a battlefield.
When did the president suggest that single payer was a bad policy? But given that you couldn’t even get a public option through the senate, at what point was that within reach?
The suggestion that if the U.S. had a chance to go after Bin Laden in Pakistan, we should take it regardless of Pakistani sovereignty — I don’t remember that being especially popular in leftist circles. But that’s a rare example. It’s pretty difficult to “prove” something to an interlocutor who is not willing to accept the constraints of what is actually possible.
Why don’t folks who are so outraged do something besides vent spleen on the Internet? Indignation is cheap. People enjoying stroking themselves. And the web makes that easier than ever.
I have little doubt that the president would be over the moon if the power of popular sentiment forced him to veer left on just about any issue.
why didn’t he try to implement it?
Nope, no pattern of dissimulation and betrayal here at all.
It wasn’t remotely possible for him to do so. You’re arguing the president’s bad faith on the basis that he didn’t do what he could not do. Make a serious argument that there was a path to single payer.
For example?
Progs…
Party Time!
April 15th must be Y’alls Nirvana!
Rich Ass Holes like me have to write BIG checks to the Gestapo… Whoops… IRS…
Have to send the Ge…IRS….FOUR HUNDRED FUCKING THOUSAND MOTHERFUCKING DOLLERS on Monday…
Motherfuckers already withheld 180,000 from my salary…
I have given your precious Federal Government FIVE HUNDRED SEVENTY THOUSAND DOLLARS..
For What?
I could have opened 2 gyms and employed 90 people with that money…
What did your pathetic government do with that money?
Most Americans don’t make 400K in their lives. You probably need to pay more.
Boo, you know I love what you do, but this deal stinks.
If, as you say, the repubs will attack us no matter what we do, why do we stand on ground easily targeted by their messaging artillery?
This might make sense if there’s a deal to get rid of the sequester, but where is it?
Krugman has it right, Obama is playing to disingenuous thugs in the Beltway establishment.
And also: the sequester is now Obama’s albatross. He can’t apologize to us about it but he needs to, and you’re right that nothing will work til it’s gone. But the proper time to get rid of it is not until after 2014. Until then it should be constant campaign mode, and that doesn’t include making serious proposals to reduce SS outlays, no matter how wonkishly they might claim to do magic.
Krugman:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/imaginary-grownups/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto
This proposal doesn’t mean shit unless it eliminates the sequester.
Why do you think Obama is having dinners with Republican senators? The whole point of the sequester is that we can hold out longer than they can.
the word “neoliberal”.
Honestly, I didn’t think I would get troll-rated for quoting an Obama speech and then saying how the site seems to me to have changed since the last time I visited it.
This is a very scary thread to a post defending the indefensible. It also has echoes of what self-styled liberals/progressives have done every time Obama champions a version of some policy originally advanced by Republicans.
You say this deal stinks — but we’re very far from any deal.
I think Charlie Pierce sums up my view of Obama pretty well. http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/The_President_And_His_Crystal_Ball?src=rss
The President has basically ceded the argument that SS and Medicare are obsolete programs in need of radical restructuring.
Chained CPI is, I agree, fairly modest but the optics mean much more. Instead of standing up for these programs he has contributed to the narrative that the Paul Ryans of this world and their media fluffers have been writing. The “reforms” will not stop after his Presidency his over.
Amidst all the hollering, there’s precious little discussion about what the proposed change to “chained CPI” would mean in actual dollars and cents. Any of you “Obama-is-a-granny-starving-corporate-sellout” want to take a crack at it? Or are you too busy sharpening your pitchforks?
No need for pitchforks when there’s no credible intention of taking the indignation to the street. Nope, this outrage is purely for the consumption of the safe, left-leaning blogosphere.
http://www.thenation.com/blog/173724/23-million-petitioners-urge-rejection-chained-cpi-social-securi
ty-cut
US Senator Bernie Sanders, Congressman Mark Takano, Congressman Mark Pocan, Congressman Rick Nolan and leaders of organizations that oppose President Obama’s anticipated assault on Social Security went to the White House Tuesday to present petitions signed by 2.3-million Americans who reject the president’s proposal for “chained-CPI.”
The “chained-CPI” scheme would restructure cost-of-living adjustments in a way that cuts Social Security benefits for millions of seniors and veterans.
Sanders has vowed to “do everything in my power to block President Obama’s proposal to cut benefits for Social Security recipients through a chained consumer price index.”
And he’s got allies. Joining the senator and the House members at the White House were representatives of Social Security Works, the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare, the National Organization for Women, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Democracy for America, the Campaign for America’s Future and MoveOn.org.
I love Bernie Sanders. Wish we had more self-proclaimed socialists in the Senate. Alas, we’re not the United States of Vermont. (But imagine all the craft bakeries and organic produce!)
I had thought that BoomanTribune was left-leaning, so I couldn’t make any sense of the abject, desperate defense here of Obama’s assault upon the New Deal, something which is not just liberal, but a core American institution.
But you have cleared up my misunderstanding. This blog takes a DLC point of view, even though the DLC no longer exists, because Democrats who for all intents and purposes are Republicans on everything except for gay rights turned out not to be appealing to most people.
Pretty sure with the invocation of the DLC, some variant of Godwin’s Law must have been invoked.
I’m all for defending, nay, expanding the New Deal. Get thee to the barricades and I will have your back, comrade. But it’s going to take more than online outcry to convince me that you care more about the outcomes than this president.
Did you somehow get here from Red State by clicking on a link by mistake?
You do understand that Godwin’s Law is about Nazis, don’t you? Why would anyone but a Teabagger think of Godwin’s Law when Democrats are being discussed?
I get what you’re saying BooMan, I really do. Problem in a nutshell is what I heard this weekend from my dad while visiting my parents. He doesn’t read blogs or surf the net and is generally not the most political guy. He voted for Bush but then voted for Obama, twice, the last time largely because he did not “trust” Romney. The news I heard from him, which he no doubt picked up from a news alert on sports radio, was that Obama wanted to cut Social Security. Mentioning Republican intransigence, chained CPI as a technical fix (not that I think it’s a “fix”), meant nothing to him–the President’s proposed Social Security cuts did.
Sometimes optics take over everything. There are lots of voters like my dad out there who went for the President. I fear many of them will see what the President is doing the same way as my dad. Trying to screw with Social Security hurt our last president pretty badly, I fear the same for this one.
Thanks for passing along some important details. I don’t have time to study the situation closely, but I do have the feeling that Obama enjoys taking away with one hand what the GOP thinks he gave with the other. He has done it before.
I see way too much imprecise language in most of the discussions and only superficial knowledge of the budget.
Last week when we were discussing who believed what conspiracy theories I said that in 1963 we had a coup. I said that once you understand that that you could begin to understand the last fifty years of American history. It would certainly explain why we keep getting Republicans to the right of center, or more accurately, working for the wealthy. Top to bottom is a better representation of the political turf than left or right.
That coup in 1963, when Obama was still in diapers, is why the American working class has gotten it in the neck for the last fifty years. That’s why our civil liberties are being eroded. That’s why the social safety net has been stripped away. That’s why we get Democrats like Clinton and Obama, who are handmaidens to the corporatists. In some ways social issues like marijuana and gay marriage and abortion are distractions from the bigger issue, which is the slow starvation of the working class.
That’s why they had to change the definition of “fascism” in the dictionary.
I agree with everything you say here, with one exception. I do not believe Obama matches your description. Clinton yes. I think we’re very fortunate to have Obama as president in these dangerous and complicated times.
Hopefully, David Axelrod’s appearance on Maddow today will be posted somewhere. It should put a chill up grandma’s spine.
I’m more concerned about Maddow, to tell you the truth.
http://www.ctka.net/rachel_maddow_gun_control.html
Agree on that, but I’m sure Axelrod would support both Chained CPI and Oswald as lone assassin.
“The power of the states and Congress has gradually been abandoned to the Executive Department, because of war conditions, and we’ve seen the creation of an arrogant, swollen bureaucratic complex totally unfettered by the checks and balances of the Constitution. In a very real and terrifying sense, our Government is the CIA and the Pentagon, with Congress reduced to a debating society.” Jim Garrison, 1967.
Garrison was a courageous and farsighted man. And what he said was true for over 4 decades and is still true in many ways. Yet all of a sudden Congress and the States, or some of them anyway, are giving THIS executive a pretty hard time. And I don’t believe it’s from love of liberty.
I discovered this looking at two American Heritage dictionaries.
The 1975 edition defined fascism this way: “A philosophy or system of government that advocates or exercises a dictatorship of the extreme right, typically through the merging of state and business leadership, together with an ideology of belligerent nationalism.”
By 1993 the definition of fascism in The American Heritage Dictionary had changed to this: “A system of government marked by a totalitarian dictator, socioeconomic controls, suppression of the opposition, and usu. a policy of belligerent nationalism and racism.”
Notice the changes.
Ask yourselves why they changed what they did.
Remember, the definition changed. What else changed?
Reich: http://robertreich.org/post/47580510045
Krugman: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/imaginary-grownups/
I pretty much agree with Booman on this one. Obviously there are problems with the political “optics”. But I don’t think it’s going to happen, any more than so many other things the left was regularly freaking out over during Obama’s first four years.
Obama at the Hamilton Project:
The left is a big place, and yes, Obama is on it. Just ask the Republicans. So no, I’m not against it, but my point is, not everybody on the left is making sense. For example, the ones that keep accusing the president of selling us out. There is more to this issue than we hear about.
http://www.thepeoplesview.net/2013/04/for-ideologue-left-social-security.html
Protein diät
Major error by Booman. The administratioin calls it “Superlative CPI“, as shown in this PDF document from the White House website link.
Booman’s failure to use the “sounds good to me” language regarding CPI – after all, what could be better than a “superlative” adjustment? – means he’s not fully on board with promoting this policy.
For shame!
money trough to me.
The Progressive Movement is a PR Front for Rich Democrats
Re Booman’s
They can bolster their case by pointing to liberals protesting Obama’s move. That will get them additional mileage. It will validate their charge that Democrats are attacking Social Security.
Does Booman want progressives unhappy with the Superlative-CPI policy to remain silent on this issue? Sounds like he should “mind the progressive outrage about Chained CPI when it is self-conscious lobbying”, for tactical reasons.
I eagerly await a post explicitly calling for Digby, Atrios, Krugman to shut up about Superlative-CPI.
Wake up.
Their bitching is welcomed because it is exactly what gives permission to Republicans to agree to a deal.
This is about getting a deal, not posturing.
All analysis premised on the assumption that this isn’t about a deal is fatally flawed.
That doesn’t mean a deal will definitely happen, but that is what this is about. The president and conservative Republican senator are attempting to execute a complicated dance here, and the bloggers you mentioned are unwittingly playing their assigned roles.
Your job is to see one step beyond the surface.
You can bend yourself into a pretzel trying to rationalize this, Booman, but you can’t change three things:
So … you reply … it’s easy for me to bitch about this without offering a solution.
The solution is to go on television every day and say “I’m not going to cut social security or medicare … period – we need to end Exxon’s tax breaks and we need to end them today” and keep yelling that at the top of his lungs and let the chips fall where they fall. When the only thing that will help you politically is a principled stand and you still won’t do it, that’s a disease.
You’re reaching when you argue that the losses in 2010 were due to perceived deficiencies in the ACA, and you’re off base if you pin them on the president. The president would have very gladly signed the bill that Pelosi shepherded through the House. It was Senator Lieberman who blocked that bill in the Senate, not the president. Or do you image that there is some other version of health care reform that would have made it through the process that less audacious bills alternately couldn’t?
We lost big in 2010 because the right successfully enraged its base that the president would do anything about health care except create tax write-offs for the well-off, and because Democrats can’t be bothered to turn out for off-year elections. This latter issue is why the Republicans have so many blue state legislatures and governor’s mansions and were able to redraw the map so favorably for themselves after the 2010 census.
The idea that if we keep repeating the things we believe that our enemies will somehow crumble away or convert seems to be a bipartisan article of faith. The reality of governing, let alone creating a context for political change, is much messier.
People want change, but they can’t be bothered to do the work to make change possible. They want somebody else — the president in particular — to do all the work for them, while giving him no backup and no cover.
You obviously don’t like it, and I don’t like it either, but there was a national election around 5 months ago. The people he has to deal with in the House won their seats in an election. They’re going to be there for another 20 months or so.
If you think Obama is going to announce a maximalist policy and dig his heals in and say “my way or the highway”, then you haven’t been paying attention to him. He’s been very clear, since his 2004 convention speech, that his biggest goal is to bring the country’s government together to get over these stupid party battles we’ve had (flag burning, balanced budget amendments, DOMA, etc., etc., etc.) and address the real problems that we have.
We can’t address climate change, or the future of the DOD, or shipping hundreds of billions of dollars overseas to buy transportation fuels, or having a modern infrastructure that doesn’t fail whenever there’s a storm, or any of the other real problems until we can have a sensible budget. That means forcing the Republicans to accept changes to the tax code that make the well-off pay more.
Once Grover is crushed, other things become possible.
And there are ways to crush Grover and give the Republicans a talking point (“We finally reigned in entitlements!!!”) while still protecting the poor and vulnerable. Remember the first round of “$100B” in spending cuts that the Republicans were crowing about forcing on Obama a few years ago? The cuts that turned out to be less than $10B in reality? They got their headlines, he won the battle.
The CPI is just a number. There are ways to change the inflation adjustments and still protect the poor and vulnerable. That’s what Obama’s trying to do here.
We don’t like the circumstances, but Obama respects the institutions of our government and the people’s representatives enough to work with the hand he’s dealt.
Ever read the Br’er Rabbit stories? It seems to me that he’s a fan – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Br%27er_Rabbit
That’s what this budget is about. He’s working within the constraints he has to cut the Gordian knot.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Boo, I have been waiting for you to address this issue. I am not a firebagger and more an Obot. It is simple, bad politics, shitty ass policy, immoral governing and potential to give away the next election. I get the emails from all the liberal groups and they just make me feel like a sucker. I know they are money grabs, but shit man, they have a bunch of truth in them. My 88 year old Grandma lives on 1K a month. She would be dead without it and she will die soon. So that money should be a poker chip by a Democratic President? Sorry man, no matter what you write honestly will ever change me from my belieft that money she survives on or what my parents will likely live on is up for some deal to exchange for this new so called Obama belief in small revenue increases, which he already caved on, that will be quickly wiped out by our corrupt Congress.
Serious Question, when the President approves the XL pipeline and threatens my family in Nebraska’s water supply so an international company can get hooked up, will you write the same type of defense? I sure hope not.
In 2021 SS output will be greater than income +interest and the treasury will start redeeming assets.
In 2023 the SS deficit will be 13%–those funds will have to come from the General Fund.
In 2033 we will have to implement 25% across the board cuts.
So here we have a President who has only expanded benefits for seniors – the PPACA expanded Medicare and Medicaid tremendously who puts forward a plan that protects low income Seniors and progressives are screaming about it.
That scenario is
a.) in the unlikely event it comes to pass (their projections are always too conservative)
b.) 20 years from now
c.) Should be dealt with then, not now
d.) Chained-CPI won’t do shit about it
So wait until 2021–and who knows who our President will be or what the composition of the Congress will be.
We wait until we need to use general fund monies to pay SS benefits to make some changes.
And let’s say that the projections are incorrect and in 2023 we are only looking at an 8% shortfall? If the cuts are at 8% that is greater than lower COLA of a cumulative benefit!
From an article at thepeoplesview.net.
http://www.thepeoplesview.net/2013/04/the-lefts-math-problem-truth-about.html
“AARP assumes that chained CPI will result in approximately 0.29% smaller COLA against current schedule. Taking only the difference into account makes the math easy, because you can hold a constant dollar value. Again, let’s use AARP’s numbers. In their calculator, they say the average social security benefit is $15,190 – no need to adjust this as we are using current dollar. Use that as a constant dollar value, and over 30 years, there is a total benefit of: $455,700. What AARP is saying is that under Chained CPI, this beneficiary would lose $20,000. That is a loss of approximately 4.4% of cumulative benefits. The same calculations show an approximately 1.5% loss against scheduled benefits over 10 years, and a 3% reduction in cumulative 20 years’ benefits.”
Let’s assume we do it. And then let’s assume the Republicans are in charge then. What do you think they’re going to do? “Oh, Obama already fixed it back in 2013. So it’s kewl, we won’t go after it.”
The People’s View. Why not just link to WH.GOV?
Why not just read it and do the math for yourself?
Well, first it is probably not going to happen because Chained CPI is tied to tax increases. The point is that we have to do something–and we have to end the sequester because it is causing tremendous pain and suffering.
And frankly we will need to do more things to shore up Social Security and Medicare. I am frankly sick and tired of the magical thinking on the left because we are in a battle with Republicans who have been trying to kill these programs since they failed to stop them in the first place.
And somewhere around 2036 or so there will be a slackening in the number of new people on Social Security because of the end of the Boomer generation. And somewhere around 2060 the Millennials will start expanding the number of folks on Social Security.
The further out the actuarial projections, the more the margin of error. It is not a certainty that in 2033 we will have to implement across-the-board cuts. A strong economy that exceeds the economic assumptions in the analysis would avoid that. But the current policy seems to be to keep the economy as weak as policy so the bankers won’t freak out about inflation (which they are doing anyway).
Funny about those expanded Medicare benefits–I can’t afford the co-pays and deductibles because Social Security is my primary income.
There is a practical disconnect here in how people are thinking about this. People do depend on these programs for survival. But the conventional way that that analysis is presented is very much from an upper middle class perspective in which there are other retirement resources or people are sitting in paid off homes or are not still paying their kids’ student loans.
In addition, as Duncan Black says, “Contractionary policy is — contractionary.”
“There is a practical disconnect here in how people are thinking about this. People do depend on these programs for survival. But the conventional way that that analysis is presented is very much from an upper middle class perspective in which there are other retirement resources or people are sitting in paid off homes or are not still paying their kids’ student loans.”
I could argue the same thing about the people who are freaking out about chained CPI. They conveniently leave out that this plan establishes a minimum benefit for the first time which means that all seniors will receive an SS benefit that is above the poverty line. That has never been the case before. They also leave out that benefits are increased for people as they get older.
I have also seen people throw around the idea of raising or lifting altogether the income cap. It is now at about 114,000. I am all for this but it doesn’t solve the problem unless you also change the way the benefits are determined so that at some income level–the SS benefit does not increase proportionately with the level of contribution into the SS insurance pool. This is more complicated than people realize. At what level do you flatten out the payout?
I am all for debating this issue but I think it does a big disservice to the progressive cause if people pretend that this is simpler than it really is.
The other thing that I think is important to remember is that this budget has some incredible services for young people–like universal pre-k. When you look at graduation rates, lifetime earnings, rates of incarceration–universal pre-k is a big factor in all of these issues and something I would have thought progressives would be championing especially since this will improve tremendously the outcomes for children who live in po
When you say that you can’t afford the expanded Medicare benefits, have you checked the list of services that are now covered without co-pays?
Don’t know why my comment left out poverty at the end–but that was the word.
others “neo-liberal”
I’d say he established his credentials as soon as he made the Rahm Emanuel appointment and all the others I need not cite here. Silly me, I was actually encouraged before voting for him by his telling the DLC to take his name off of their member list.
Given that Boehner, Cantor, Ryan, etc have taken ownership of the “take it or leave it!” sequester http://www.google.com/search?q=Boehner+and+Cantor+take+credit+for+sequester&rls=com.microsoft:en
-us:IE-SearchBox&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=ie7&rlz=1I7GGHP_en that has prompted this economy-stifling, austerity-promoting effort the neo-liberal pres is in avid pursuit of as a “Grand Bargain” with those devils, it seems to me like he’s already got a foot in their camp.
MR. CARNEY: … The President’s budget will replace the sequester, which was designed to be bad policy for everyone with not just $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction, but $1.8 trillion in deficit reduction. In other words, it will go further than the sequester.
So I’d ask, if we move from the sequester they have ownership of to BHO’s more “austere” budget proposals, and the anti-austerity, more spending at this time people are correct, who gets credit going forward for whatever negative economic consequences occur? It seems to me like we’d have an example of rightwing/neo-liberal policies and the damage being pinned on your precious “liberal” pres while the rightwingers will escape not only responsibility for the sequester that prompted it, but also the measure of blame for the economic puckjob they deserve that would ensue.
This is why I suspect, so many here have focused on the “optics” of it all. Hell, they have already successfully convinced nearly half of this country that BHO owns Bush’s debt and deficits, or that the debt that has aqccumulated under his stewardship is due to “HIS” NEW spending programs, (as opposed to fallout from the Bush failures) etc, and you think they’re gonna have trouble exploiting quite energetically, that it was a dem that put SS on the chopping block? Your “they’ll attack us no matter what we do” provides no cover wahtsoever for the fact that in this case, they’re right — he put it on the table. At the very least it makes the SS cuts a bipartisan affair, as opposed to something only they should have ownership of.
ANd of what value is his willingness to attract the ire of his base? His lowest popularity level http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/04/09/1200432/-Seriously-what-the-hell-is-Obama-thinking?detail=h
ide corresponds to the last time tried to appear to be “the adult in the room”.
So, once again our neo-liberal pres appears to be weak, is violating a taboo by diminishing or cutting the current to the third rail, all in an effort to impose austerity in excess of the sequester he wants to avoid. I suppose there is an argument to be made in regards to what is targeted and cut, but only time will tell what the economic impact of all that will be. Ownership of it should it have a negative impact though, will be widely known. Just ask those “socialist” European leaders.
And it bears noting that it has been said that the greatest lie the devil ever told was convincing the world he doesn’t exist.