Stirrings In Syria – 2 Years On

18 Comments

1. 

   Oui on May 17, 2013 at 3:48 pm

   Breaking News: Seventy-six killed in and outside Baghdad in a string of bombings

   Sectarianism in Iraq stoked by Syrian war

   BAGHDAD (WaPo) May 17, 2013 — A recent tide of sectarian tensions that erupted into the worst violence seen in Iraq in five years is testing the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose ability to contain the crisis could hinge on a conflict raging beyond his control in Syria.

   The prospect of a regional power shift driven by the bloody civil war next door, where a mostly Sunni rebel movement is struggling to topple the Shiite-dominated regime, has emboldened Iraq’s Sunni minority to challenge its own Shiite government and amplified fears within Maliki’s administration that Iraq may soon be swept up in a spillover war.

   Sectarian bombings and assassinations targeting both Sunnis and Shiites increased last month after government forces raided a Sunni protest camp in northern Iraq, killing more than 40 people. Bombings continued Wednesday and Thursday, leaving more than 30 people dead in Shiite neighborhoods of Baghdad.

   Meanwhile, Iraq’s embittered Sunnis say the successes of the Syrian rebels have given them the confidence to challenge what they call worsening government discrimination and abuse against the minority that once ruled this country under Saddam Hussein.

   Iraq’s Sunnis have been staging a growing wave of anti-government demonstrations in Sunni-majority provinces across the country for five months, raising tensions that some say could reignite the civil war that peaked in 2006. The combustible situation, underpinned by what critics call mistakes of the decade-long U.S. occupation that enshrined sectarianism, has been aggravated by Maliki’s increasingly authoritarian policies, analysts say.

   • No doubt about Turkey’s gold trade with Iran
2. 

   Oui on May 17, 2013 at 3:52 pm

   Russian warships enter Mediterranean to form permanent task force

   (Hürriyet) – Aiming to build up a permanent fleet in the region, Russia has sent warships from its Pacific Fleet to the Mediterranean for the first time in decades.

   The vessels, including the destroyer Admiral Panteleyev, two amphibious warfare ships, the Peresvet and the Admiral Nevelskoi, as well as a tanker and a tugboat, have entered the Mediterranean and are currently heading to Cyprus to make a port call in Limassol.

   The ships left the Far Eastern port city of Vladivostok on March 19 to join Russia’s Mediterranean task force, which currently consists of vessels from the Northern, Baltic, and the Black Sea Fleets, including a large anti-submarine ship, a frigate and a Ropucha-II Class landing ship, Russia Today has reported.

   …
   In a separate Agence France-Presse report, Russia’s foreign minister said May 17 he did not understand the international uproar created by Moscow’s continuing weapons cooperation with the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

   …
   The New York Times reported on May 17 that Russia had sent Syria a shipment of upgraded Yakhonts anti-ship missiles that would make any naval blockade of Syria more difficult.

   • US to double size of Bahrain naval base
3. 

   Oui on May 17, 2013 at 5:54 pm

   Joint Press Conference by President Obama and Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey

   (White House Briefing Room) – Finally, we spent a great deal of time on an issue that has racked the region — the issue of Syria.  Under the Prime Minister’s leadership, the Turkish people have shown extraordinary generosity to the Syrians who have found refuge in Turkey.  And I know this is a heavy burden.  I’ve made it clear again today that the United States is going to keep on helping countries in the region, including Turkey, shoulder this burden, doing our part as a major donor of humanitarian aid to the Syrian people, including those refugees in Turkey.  And we’re going to keep working with our Turkish partners to deliver the food, shelter and medicine that’s needed to save lives.

   At the same time, we’re going to keep increasing the pressure on the Assad regime and working with the Syrian opposition.  The Prime Minister has been at the forefront of the international effort to push for a transition to a democratic Syria without Bashar Assad.  And Turkey is going to play an important role as we bring representatives of the regime and opposition together in the coming weeks.

   We both agree that Assad needs to go.  He needs to transfer power to a transitional body.  That is the only way that we’re going to resolve this crisis.  And we’re going to keep working for a Syria that is free from Assad’s tyranny; that is intact and inclusive of all ethnic and religious groups; and that’s a source of stability, not extremism, because it’s in the profound interest of all our nations, especially Turkey.

    

   • Kerry In Moscow – A Breath of Fresh Air
4. 

   Oui on May 17, 2013 at 6:15 pm

   Qatar offers billions in aid for Arab uprising

   DOHA, Qatar  — Qatar’s emir looked over an assembly of Arab leaders Tuesday as both cordial host and impatient taskmaster. His welcoming remarks to kings, sheiks and presidents across the Arab world quickly shifted to Qatar’s priorities: Rallying greater support for Syrian rebels and helping Palestinians with efforts such as a newly proposed $1 billion fund to protect Jerusalem’s Arab heritage.

   …
   Almost nothing happens in the Syrian opposition without a voice from Qatar, which has played matchmaker for a broader political coalition against Syrian President Bashar Assad and leads appeals to provide rebel fighters more heavy weapons in attempts to turn the tide in the 2-year-old civil war. On Tuesday, Qatar led the official transfer of Syria’s Arab League seat from the Assad government to the opposition Syrian National Coalition.

   The New York Times reported Monday that the CIA has helped Turkey and Arab governments, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, to sharply increase military aid to Syria’s opposition in recent months with secret airlifts or arms and equipment. The Associated Press also reported, citing American officials and others, that the U.S. is training secular Syrian fighters in Jordan in a bid to stem the influence of Islamist radicals in the splintered Syrian opposition.  

   • 

     Marie2 on May 17, 2013 at 8:31 pm

     Who elected the emir?  Oh, that’s right Qatar is a monarchy that seized control in a war and established its Al Thani dynasty with a bit of help from the Brits.  Oh, no wait a moment.  The current emir, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani rose to power through a peaceful coup against his father.  Basher Assad at least had the decency to wait until his papa died before stepping into his role.

5. 

   Shaun Appleby on May 17, 2013 at 6:24 pm

   Not sure I’m getting your point.

6. 

   on May 17, 2013 at 7:09 pm

   UN General Assembly Vote Reflects Shift in Syrian Public Opinion

   after nearly 27 months of turmoil, the public opinion pendulum is markedly shifting back in support of the current regime. […]

   Opinion in Damascus and surrounding areas visited this past week, confirms this observers experience the past five months of a sharp and fairly rapid shift in opinion that now strongly favors letting the Syrian people themselves decide, without outside interference, whether the Assad regime will stay, and indeed, whether, the Baathist party will continue to represent majority opinion, not through wanton violence but rather via next June’s election.

   Sure, this is Counterpunch, and the author isn’t basing his view on a poll but just on talking to people, but at least he’s in Syria.

   For different reasons, foreign powers, including the USA, Turkey, European Union, the UK Jordan and even the majority population of the six Gulf Cooperation Council family run countries, according to Pew Research, are shifting their earlier positions which were based in part of the US administration, NATO, and Israeli assurances that the Assad government would surely fall quickly, “A matter of days, not weeks” US President Obama promised. That was two years ago.

   This is the first I hear of an election in June. I’m not sure how that would work. As far as I know, there aren’t any opposition political organizations that would be willing to participate in any election run by the government. But there is still time: the election is next June, i.e., in 2014. According to Wikipedia:

   The new Syrian constitution of 2012, approved in popular referendum, introduced multi-party system without guaranted leadership of any political party.[1] In a new article 88, it introduced presidential elections and limited the term of office for the president to seven years with a maximum of one re-election.

   That means that as of now, Syria has never had a presidential election. That’s encouraging, because it means that Syria doesn’t have a history of bogus elections. It’s typical of Western powers that instead of working to make sure that Assad holds a fair election, they just say “he has to go”. So much for democracy and the will of the people. National sovereignty be damned.

   Iran says Syria’s Assad will fight in 2014 election

   Syria’s close ally Iran said on Saturday that President Bashar al-Assad will take part in next year’s presidential election and that it is up to the Syrian people to choose their own leader. […]

   At a news conference with Muallem, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said “in the next election, President Assad, like others, will take part, and the Syrian people will elect whomever they want.”

   So Iran and (I’m guessing) Russia think that whether Assad stays or not should be decided by an election, but according to Booman, they’re the bad guys here.

7. 

   on May 17, 2013 at 8:17 pm

   CIA chief John Brennan makes surprise Israel visit for Syria talks

   CIA chief John Brennan ‘was sent to Israel to prevent it from taking action on its own in Syria’, according to reports in Israeli media. […]

   On Wednesday, the New York Times quoted a senior Israeli official as saying the Jewish state was considering further strikes to prevent the transfer of advanced weaponry to Islamist militants in the region.

   I don’t know if anyone actually believes that. Why would the Syrian government transfer weapons to people fighting against it? Israel wants Assad toppled, so that the West can move on to Iran. It is aiding the Islamist rebels. Hopefully Sunnis who are not jihadists will realize that.

   • 

     Shaun Appleby on May 17, 2013 at 8:53 pm

     About Hezbollah. Israel claims, probably correctly, that Iran is providing resources to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria.

8. 

   Marie2 on May 17, 2013 at 10:30 pm

   Must be heard to believe it.

   Kai Ryssdal was polite but didn’t let Rumsfeld merely pimp his latest book of simplistic sayings.  But Ryssdal did let him flap his gums — and out popped this gem:

   If intelligence were a fact, it wouldn’t be intelligence.

   No wonder this country keeps getting into disastrous foreign adventures — we act on “intelligence” not facts.

   • 

     Don Durito on May 18, 2013 at 1:41 pm

     Ah yes…from the genius who brought us such gems as “unknown unknowns.”

     • 

       Marie2 on May 18, 2013 at 3:14 pm

       Another term for “unknown unknowns” may be “black swans.”  So, it’s not as stupid as “if intelligence were a fact, it wouldn’t be intelligence.”  The right, and some of the MSM, seems to use a secret dictionary with unique definitions for generally accepted words.  (Unique along with unprecedented are two of those words in their secret dictionary.)

       • 

         Don Durito on May 20, 2013 at 1:47 am

         Actually, that does seem reasonable enough. Hadn’t thought of it quite that way before with regard to the “unknown unknowns” = “black swans”.

9. 

   Oui on May 18, 2013 at 2:33 am

   Who gets to build/renovate this pipeline: Russia or the Seven Sisters. The oil transport royalties were to be a welcome economic profit for Syria.

   The Kirkuk – Banias Pipeline

   (Pipelines Int’l) – Construction was completed in early 1952 and was commissioned throughout the year. Iraq’s King Feisal declared the pipeline officially open at a ceremony attended by foreign dignitaries. The pipeline raised the capacity of Iraq’s export pipeline system to 1.2 Bbbl/a.

   In 1956, the pipeline was badly damaged by the Syrian army in response to the Anglo-French seizure of the Suez Canal zone, but it was eventually repaired.

   Tariff disputes close pipeline

   In 1972 Iraq nationalised the IPC prompting the Syrian Government to nationalise IPC’s assets in Syria, including the Syrian section of the Kirkuk – Banias Pipeline. Tariff negotiations commenced with Syria pushing for a doubling of transit fees. While initially Iraq was forced to agree to these conditions, the country decided to construct a new pipeline to expand its export options.

    « click to enlarge

   The Strategic Pipeline was constructed in 1975, which comprised two parallel 700,000 bbl/d pipelines capable of transporting crude from Kirkuk south to the Arabian Peninsula. In 1976 Iraq ceased pumping oil through the Kirkuk – Banias Pipeline. Oil flow through the pipeline resumed in February 1979 but again ceased following the Iraqi invasion of Iran in September 1980. In March 1981 Iraq once again resumed pumping oil through the pipeline to Syria; however when Syria concluded a deal with Iran to import significant volumes of crude oil, the pipeline was shut down in 1982.

   Syria’s transit future: all pipelines lead to Damascus?

   • Iraq: Regional perspectives and U.S. policy
   • Syria says Iraq oil, gas pipeline tenders to be issued soon – January 2011

   Cross-posted from BooMan’s fp story and comment – No blood for oil!.

10. 

    on May 18, 2013 at 4:45 pm

    Syria’s Nusra Front eclipsed by Iraq-based al Qaeda

    (Reuters) – The most feared and effective rebel group battling President Bashar al-Assad, the Islamist Nusra Front, is being eclipsed by a more radical jihadi force whose aims go far beyond overthrowing the Syrian leader.

    Al Qaeda’s Iraq-based wing, which nurtured Nusra in the early stages of the rebellion against Assad, has moved in and sidelined the organization, Nusra sources and other rebels say.

    Al Qaeda in Iraq includes thousands of foreign fighters whose ultimate goal is not toppling Assad but the anti-Western jihad of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri – a shift which could extend Syria’s conflict well beyond any political accord between Assad and his foes. […]

    The break-up of an important part of Syria’s opposition, already splintered into hundreds of armed groups, worsens the dilemma faced by the West as it debates whether intervention to support the rebels will result in arms being placed in the hands of hostile Islamist militants. And if the West were to intervene, it may now be under pressure to attack al Qaeda opposition forces rather than Assad.

    So it looks like if Assad’s regime collapses, the result will be al Qaeda controlling large swathes of Syria.

    • 

      Marie2 on May 18, 2013 at 5:17 pm

      And the US and Saudi secret funding of the 1980s war in Afghanistan just keeps on giving.

11. 

    on May 18, 2013 at 6:12 pm

    The Observer: Bashar al-Assad issues defiant message: ‘I’m here to stay’

    Assad gives an interview to an Argentine newspaper, and The Observer covers it. I don’t remember the Western media picking up RT’s interview with Assad last November. There was virtually a news blackout of Syrian government sources: the only people the Western media would talk to were “activists”. In the new interview, he says pretty much what he said in the earlier interview.

    Asked about the possibility of stepping down, he said: “I don’t know whether [US secretary of state] John Kerry or anyone else has received a mandate from the Syrian people to decide whether someone should stay or go. Any decision about reforms in Syria will come from Syria and neither the US nor any other state can intervene. In any case, to resign would be to flee.” […]

    Assad again blamed Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey for driving the insurgency, insisting that ending such support for the opposition must be a priority if the summit goes ahead. “There cannot be a unilateral solution in Syria; two parties are needed at least. In practice, the opposition forces are linked to foreign countries and cannot make a decision for themselves. They are one and the same, and it is they who announced that they don’t want a dialogue with the Syrian state, most recently last week. Believing that a political conference will stop terrorism on the ground is unreal.” […]

    “The west lies and falsifies evidence to engineer wars, it is a habit of theirs.”

    Really? Assad always sounds more reasonable than Western leaders (although Obama says more reasonable things about Syria than the Brits or the French; I guess they are nostalgic for when the two of them carved up what was left of the Ottoman Empire). He may be lying however when he says that Hetzbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are not helping with the fighting against the (Sunni) Islamists, though.

12. 

    Oui on May 29, 2013 at 2:49 pm

    J Street is no longer on outs with Netanyahu

    (Mondoweiss) – The Netanyahu government used to be against the liberal Zionist lobbying group J Street. The Israelis said J Street was anti-Israel, here. And Netanyahu refused to meet with a congressional delegation that J Street organized, and the Israeli embassy boycotted the J Street conference in 2011.

    Times have changed. J Street’s head Jeremy Ben-Ami sent out an email after a recent trip to Israel by a J Street delegation, stating:

    “Finally, the Netanyahu government allowed ministers and senior political figures to meet with J Street on this trip, including Deputy Foreign Minister Zeev Elkin (the highest-ranking government officials at the ministry) and Minister Yuval Steinitz.

    The government put out the word to journalists following these meetings that “Israel is moving closer to J Street” in recognition “that J Street has become a major player in the US political arena which can no longer be ignored.” (See this clip from Israel’s leading daily newspaper, Yediot Ahronot.)

    Conclusion
    Our trip confirmed that Kerry has re-injected energy into peace efforts and that the coming months will put to the test J Street’s core hypothesis that vigorous American engagement and leadership could be the key factor in bringing about an end to this most difficult conflict.”

    • Kerry holds meetings with Abbas, Livni in Amman