I can kind of, sort of, understand David French’s mystification. Back in 2011, he wrote a piece that questioned why Muslim countries were so universally hostile to Israel and so universally uninterested in the crimes of Sudan’s president Omar al-Bashir. Why would a Malaysian Muslim care about the Palestinians and not the suffering Sudanese?
In reading public opinion pieces about Syria, I occasionally come across some evangelical Christian who is aware that Syrian Christians have been more supportive of the Assad regime that they have been of the rebels. Some of these evangelicals support the Assad regime for this reason. They may not know anything about the conflict, but they identify and side with the Christians. I always find this a little jarring. And it’s jarring in the exact same way that Malaysian Muslims’ support for the Palestinians is jarring for David French. This kind of religious solidarity is foreign to me. But it exists, and it must be understood.
In that 2011 piece, Mr. French asked a few speculative questions. Among them:
For some time our elites, on both sides of the aisle, have argued that our problems in the Muslim world have been caused by the so-called “few extremists” who’ve “hijacked” a great faith. But the Arab Spring may very well show the emptiness of that rhetoric. When the crowd (and not the military) finally rules in Egypt, what kind of government will it produce? If the Syrian protestors overthrow Assad, will they recognize Israel? Will they forsake their support for Hezbollah’s terrorist mini-state?
Egyptian politics are still in flux, but nothing very threatening has happened to U.S.-Egypt or Egypt-Israeli relations. At least, not yet. But Hezbollah’s recent entrance into the fighting in Syria, on the side of the Assad regime, shows how little imagination Mr. French had a mere two years ago. Should the rebels prevail in toppling Assad and defeating Hezbollah, how likely is it that the new government will maintain Syria’s support for Hezbollah?
It’s more likely that they will pursue the Shiite organization right to the border of Israel.
Leap forward to today’s National Review Online piece by David French and you enter a different world.
In Syria we face a series of terrible choices. If we do nothing, we further impair our credibility (who will believe any future declaration of a “red line” — will Iran as it builds its bomb?), miss a golden opportunity to diminish Iranian power, and instead potentially grant its key allies a prestige-boosting military victory.
If we intervene by arming or otherwise providing military assistance to the rebels, we will be empowering a motley crew of Sunni jihadists, many with direct ties to al-Qaeda.
But, since this is appearing in the National Review Online, you know that this must be all President Obama’s fault. The invasion of Iraq and the instigation of Sunni-Shi’a conflict cannot have anything to do with the spillover of sectarian fighting into Syria.
So, a myth arises. The myth says that things in Syria may have deteriorated to the point that nothing can be done, but it didn’t have to be this way. Obama could have been more decisive or intervened at an earlier stage when things might still have come out smelling like roses. It goes something like this:
Was there a brief window when decisive aid to early opponents of Assad’s regime would have engineered the outcome we wanted? There was certainly a much greater chance than exists now, and — at the very least — tens of thousands of lives could have been saved.
There’s a logically fallacy in there for you philosophy students, if you care to find it. It’s called “begging the question” and it doesn’t mean “I really want to inquire about something.” Look it up.
To really unpack how stupid Mr. French is, we can look at this paragraph.
That’s not to say that anything is easy in that region, but some choices are more difficult than others. A SOFA for Iraq should have been a top priority. Opposing an Iranian regime that’s been fighting a low-intensity war against the U.S. since 1979 should be a top priority. Opposing Iranian client regimes should have been a top priority. Oh, and diminishing al-Qaeda should always be a priority.
Why was it important to get a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with Iraq when Obama ran for president on the promise to get our forces out of Iraq? It wasn’t a pleasant experience when we were occupying their country, and we elected a president to get us out of that quagmire.
If opposing the Iranian regime is supposed to be such a high priority, then why did we take out the one guy in the region with the balls to invade them, and thereby turn his country over to the Iranians’ religious brethren?
It’s all fine to argue that we should oppose Iran’s proxies, but why create them for them? And if our choice in 2011 was whether to side with an Iranian proxy or the al-Qaeda forces opposing him, that is still our choice today.
If there is any potentially valid point to Mr. French’s attempt at an argument, it is that two years of sectarian fighting have hardened sectarian feelings. But let’s not try to use that as an excuse to blame America or the president for the tragedy in Syria. America’s primary fault in this conflict is that we kick-started sectarian violence in the region by toppling a Sunni strongman in a majority-Shi’a country. If we help topple a Shi’a-aligned strongman in a Sunni-majority country, we will merely repeat our mistake.
Under the circumstances, it seems that the only productive thing to do is to stop thinking about prestige and saving-face and to focus on tamping down sectarian rage. It’s clear that Mr. French cares more about kicking Russia and Iran in the teeth than he does about the humanitarian crisis in Syria, or about the eventual fate of Christians, Shiites, and Alawites should the regime fall. In denying the war theater American weapons, Obama has followed the advice that people like Gandhi, King Jr. and Mandela would have given him. Don’t feed the violence.
In reluctantly agreeing to supply small arms, he is hoping to buy time to create the conditions for mediation. It’s the wrong decision, but people like Mr. French, who constitute the common wisdom in Washington, are doing everything they can to force Obama into putting our skin in the game.
He obviously doesn’t understand the region. But the administration does.
For two years, President Obama has resisted being drawn deeper into the civil war in Syria. It was a miserable problem, he told aides, and not one he thought he could solve. At most, it could be managed…
…White House aides on Friday again ruled out sending United States troops and dismissed calls for a no-fly zone over Syria, calling it “dramatically more difficult and dangerous and costly” than it had been in Libya in 2011, as Mr. Rhodes put it. And there is little domestic constituency for another American adventure abroad.
Idiots like Mr. French have already pushed Obama too far. Z-Big is right.
Zbigniew Brzezinski, who was President Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser, said he was “baffled” by Mr. Obama’s decision to become more deeply involved. “What exactly is our objective?” he asked. “It’s not clear to me that every nondemocratic government in the world has to be removed by force.”
The way Obama has resisted this has been admirable, but they are pushing him inch by inch to the point where we go down the slide.
Mr. French is a cheerleader for direct force and for the type of idiot Emperors that truly ruin either their country’s standing, or their own political party. See: LBJ, Bush II, McCain (if elected), etc.
The United States Empire is owned and operated by people who profit from warfare, regardless of which countries are involved in warfare.
Therefore, The United States Empire will continue to pursue policies that encourage warfare. The United States Empire created Iran. Don’t forget that. And let’s not pretend that Israel isn’t our vassal state situated right smack dab in the middle of one of the most troublesome and religious areas on Earth.
Smart Emperors, like Obama, will project power by “speak[ing] softly and carry[ing] a big stick” (Emperor Roosevelt I). This has the benefit of causing the least amount of costs to The United States Empire itself, and often (but not always) creates the least amount of political blowback, given the imperial actions.
Idiot Emperors, like LBJ or Bush II, get a hard-on for using actual force, rather than reaping the rewards through indirect action. They also tend to cause the most amount of political blowback, whether it is in terms of direct costs, or damage to the political party that the Emperor belongs to. Sometimes both.
Mr. French is just a cheerleader for idiot Emperors, and clearly doesn’t like how Obama uses his soft power. He probably has daddy issues and was likely bullied as a child.
Nothing to see here.
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Great article, I need a bit of time to “chew” on the many facits. It sounds to me you are trying to get a grip on the reasoning behind Obama’s policy towards Syria, and the region, during his administration. You are putting forward more questions than providing answers. I like that because the decisions made by the US in foreign policy are a grave matter.
Has it changed since 1980 when Brzezinski helped craft it? Except for the blowback from funding the majahideen, goading the USSR into Afghanistan worked out well for the US objective. Using Iraq as a proxy against Iran was less successful. Then the Bushes muffed that up completely. Is Syria now the bait that several powers are dangling for each other and a tempting prize for others?
Marie, I don’t remember the US pushing the USSR to go into Afghanistan. That was a little bit of home-grown Russian imperialism.
A friend of mine served with the Soviet Army in Afghanistan and he said that they were sure that when they got there they would be fighting Americans.
Adding, it didn’t really drain them of resources. The better policy would have been to allow them to set up a socialist satellite state like they had done elsewhere. They fell a decade later anyway; and their involvement (or lack thereof) in Afghanistan wouldn’t have changed that.
It was about three times as bad as our Iraq adventure and about one fifth as bad as our Vietnam adventure. It was significant, and it totally discredited the government because the denied casualties until the mothers of veterans got organized and defied their censorship.
Z-Big deliberately provoked the Soviets into invading Afghanistan and then Carter turned around and boycotted the Olympics. Brilliant!!
The great humanitarian:
Ah, I see it now:
Step 1: wheat embargo
Step 2: collect underpants
Step 3: Soviet invasion of Afghanistan!
How?
Supplying arms to the muhajideen to overthrow the socialist and USSR aligned government in Kabul. Well enough that the USSR sent in troops to stabilize the situation that appeared to have devolved into a civil war.
Then the timeline is:
That’s the way I remember it. It sounded like Booman was saying Z caused step 1 rather than step 3 which was what prompted my question.
Z-Big sent aid to the mujahideen in part to take the heat off Poland but also as an incitement. He wanted them to commit their troops there.
No doubt. I just questioned/misunderstood the timeline.
More of #2 on the way led to #3. Before #1 and for several years the US and USSR competed in Afghanistan for infrastructure contracts.
While there are some similarities, the US-Vietnam and USSR-Afghanistan stories are different. We entered Vietnam to thwart the wishes of the people of S. Vietnam for unification with the North and installed a series of puppets and in violation of the Geneva Accords. The USSR went into Afghanistan by invitation and to bolster the government. What the people wanted is unknown.
I greatly doubt that the Soviets were so altruistic.
No altruism in geo-politics.
Merely recognizing that the USSR was reluctant to intervene on behalf of a friendly government that was being destabilized by indigenous rebels supported and supplied by third parties and did so at the request of that government.
The same euphemisms were used in VietNam.
Your point? If it’s that what precipitated the US military actions in Vietnam are similar to the USSR action in Afghanistan, you couldn’t be more wrong. How the US and USSR sold the invasions to their citizens may have been similar and the disaster both the US and USSR experienced as a consequence of their boneheaded actions were similar. I honestly can’t think of example where a country rebelled against a king, dictator, or imperialist occupier and won and the resulting government chose to align itself with the US and some third country hostile to the US supported and funded the losing faction sufficiently to destabilize the country to the point where the US intervened to stabilize the friendly government.
My point is that Russia didn’t go into Afghanistan to help a friendly government from a foreign supported fifth column. They went in to retain control of a puppet.
In real time, US activities in Afghanistan via Pakistan were covert; so, none of us saw much of anything beyond the PR demonizing the USSR for invading Afghanistan and cheering for the mujahideen.
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It’s not about Palestine or Palestinians … it’s about the holy city Jerusalem.
Jihad against heretics … clerics call to kill Shiites and Alawites.
Easy to brainwash certain youth and young men, convert them to fundamental Islam and to travel to a warzone where “Muslims” are killed. See my recent comment about European nationals traveling to Syria by the hundreds and join the rebel factions. Doing the will of the Syrian people who started the protest against dictator Bashar al-Assad? I don’t think so.
Empire is about exerting military power and raping the nation of its cultural or mineral riches.
The occupying power (=Israel) manages to humiliate Palestinian people by its military force (IDF), rendition and detention of “terrorists” (also called freedom fighters) and deprive the people from all human dignity. Determined not to learn lessons from history how to treat indiginous people: American-Central America-Amazon Indians, African people during European colonialism, same for all areas where the riches were stolen in South-East Asia.
The American Empire manages to be on the wrong side of history most of the time and give their support to tirany. Too many instances to be specific.
Syria was all about regime change under George Bush and the same policy was encouraged under Hillary Clinton. Look at her advisors and how few changes there are from a Republican to a Democratic administration. Look at the American think tanks and the elite people who determine US foreign policy by their influence.
Regime change for Iraq was under Bill Clinton the same policy as under George Bush. Syria was part of the Neocon playbook, Hillary just abided by the book to get support for her policy. Susan Rice by extension was her advocate, look at her present position as close advisor to Barack Obama.
The support the Reagan administration gave to Saddam Hussein to teach the Iranians a lesson is the same failure to understand the region and have a vision of future developments and change in regional power structure.
The proxy war in Lebanon and Syria has ravaged the region since 1982 and involved the United States, Israel, France and Great Britain versus Iran. The Sunni Gulf States with Saudi Arabia became involved at a much later date, closer to the year 1999/2000 and joined in to rid Lebanon from Syrian occupation and influence. George Bush and Dick Cheney attacked Baghdad and made a mess of the region after crown prince and later King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia warned the US not to invade Iraq. The Saudis undermined the US forces in Iraq by trafficking arms and funds to their Sunni compatriots in Anbar province. Look where the protests and massive car bomb attacks are continuing today.
I pretty much have covered all lessons that should have been learned throughout recent years here at Booman Tribune. A series of six diaries was completed with this recent diary – US Will Be Ousted by Saudi King Abdullah in Middle-East. One crucial element Americans fail to understand, for the Middle-East countries policy and time are expressed in centuries, not in 4 more years.
A latest diary explained what the Western powers should do or refrain from doing in Syria. An excellent article written by Lord David Owen, he learned the hard lessons from mistakes made in the nineties with Bosnia and Kosovo. The Russians and Chinese are concerned whenever Western powers enter a conflict for regime change. It use to be illegal under UN and International Law. How times have changed.
Remember all the colour revolutions initiated under Bush during his failed eight years in the White House. All have failed – Ukraine and Georgia. Western influence on domestic policy through NGOs have now been aborted in Egypt, Israel and Russia. Puts Israel in great company, doesn’t it?
Israel is not the democratic state with all freedoms it pretends to be, the US is used as fig leaf for all abuses in the region by the Israelis. That’s why John Kerry tries to get a deal with the Russians for a political solution in Syria and at the same time get a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians which the Arab states can support. Great craftmanship by Kerry, but will he get a chance to achieve this goal? Depends on who gets Obama’s ear.
Neither is the USA.
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See my earlier comment – Samantha Power: Her Gentle Manner on Israel.
“The way Obama has resisted this has been admirable, but they are pushing him inch by inch to the point where we go down the slide.”
Even when you disagree with the president you find a way to blame it on someone or something else. Almost as if he’s a helpless child. The president always wants to do the right thing but it’s always someone or something pushing him to do something else. Isn’t that a question of leadership? I respect your loyalty but I’m not sure I buy this, as bad as I want to support him there are just too many issues where I disagree with him. I just can’t convince myself that his being half Black is good enough anymore.
Think of a scale.
On one side of the scale is the President.
On the other side of the scale is the former president Bill Clinton and his wife, the former Secretary of State. Also on that side of the scale are the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the neo-cons, and probably a majority of cabinet. Also, on the other side of the scale, the Washington Post and the majority of the beltway press corp. Also, a not insignificant rump of congressional Democrats.
Who is on Obama’s side? Probably his new Secretary of Defense and possibly his new Secretary of State, and maybe his new CIA director, although I don’t really know where Kerry and Brennan stand.
Obama did reset his second term cabinet to assure he had some backup, but that town is itching to take on Iran. And it pulls so hard on him that it begins to tip the scales.
You can also think of a tug-a-war with a giant pit in the middle. The president is pulled and pulled and pulled, and even as he uses all his might to keep us out, he finds himself getting closer and closer to that pit.
He’s been defying the national security consensus for over two years on this, and now he’s finally forced by the last concession (a red line) to make a new one (small arms).
That’s how that town wears on you.
WaPo says he made a decision in April to do this, and the “redline” made for an easy excuse.
Could be. The NYT’s piece colors the decision-making differently. Who knows when he first knew that the IC was going to give him no cover?
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If we weren’t so dependent on oil from the Middle East, maybe, just maybe, we wouldn’t have so much at stake as to which religious faction is in control, where, and when.
I am no advocate of fracking, so please don’t misunderstand me, and think I’m suggesting that that’s the solution.
Green energy could be.
I think if we’re going to give tax breaks to fossil fuel companies (and, without a Democratic Congress and President, we’ll continue to give them those breaks – hell, we couldn’t even cut them when we did, from 2009-2011), the only way to justify them is that the money HAS to be used for researching green energy – and then applying that research, making it a reality.
I strongly suspect that the oil company executives know that they and their companies are dependent on a rapidly depleting resource (hell – fracking here proves that point) – they may be greedy sociopaths, but I doubt they’re THAT stupid.
The only reason that they want/need to frack, and drill in America in places that have been forbidden to them before, is that, not only is it something they know how to do, and it’s cheap, but there’s a short-term payback.
Investing in green energy means taking the long-term view – something that no one seems to remember how to do in 21st Century American Capitalism (Fascism).
So, unless the US Government uses those idiotic tax breaks less idiotically, things will remain as they are.
Maybe there’s SOME way to redirect those tax breaks away from the subsidizing the importation of more oil from outside the US (thus forcing us to stay in the Middle East more than we really shoud), or looking to drill off-shore and in National Parks, or fracking-away at mountains and hilltops, but use that tax money ONLY for research and application of green energy.
They won’t unless they’re force to.
Yeah, I know – good luck with THIS Congress!
Maybe more people will wake-up, and we’ll be able to do something sooner, rather than later – before we’re all Moore, OK, or the Jersey Shore – or have our military hip-deep in IED’s in Syria, Lebanon, etc.
Good question. Before I read the comments I was thinking that oil is the key ingredient to this entire situation, and indeed everything in that part of the world. Without oil those regimes don’t have the cash for their current militaries. Without oil the US doesn’t care about any of those countries – well, except for the Israeli lobby in the US. Without oil it’s just another humanitarian crisis to be ignored, like those in central Africa.
But you won’t get any American government doing anything but lip services and token gestures with small impact to change the oil-based status quo in the middle east. Too many powerful interests make way too much money to let that kind of change happen.
And so it goes ….
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Just as Hillary gave her support to George Bush to invade Iraq in 2003 and Bill Clinton gives support to President Obama, the great British magician Tony Blair is also expressing support … Thus all old colonial powers are aligned to give support to the
Syrian peopleforeign fighters to overthrow President Assad. John Kerry concedes today a political solution is beyond reach, war it will be!The surprise win in Iran’s election of a new president, should make the political option the number one priority. Israel’s nemesis Ahmadinejad is gone and can’t be used as cover to attack the state of Iran. My diary – – Iranian Surprise in Presidential Election – Rohani Wins!!.
John Kerry concedes today a political solution is beyond reach, war it will be!
That is completely not what the link shows.
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Depends on your comprehension of political statements where Kerry looks for a butt-out and puts blame on
foreign fightersHezbollah and Assad’s lack of commitment – read General Salem Idriss interview with CNN’s Amanpour. The words and conditions are identical. When the FSA has the advantage, we’ll place our conditions on the table and won’t negotiate with the Assad puppets. We need weapons immediately, or we’ll be defeated by the dogs of Assad.John Kerry wasn’t aware of the surprise election result in Iran, which illustrates once again the democratic fiber of the Shia population are centuries ahead of the medieval Wahhabists in Saudi Arabia or the Salafists rebels who run the countries in the Arab Uprising. Kerry postpones Mideast visit amid Syria talks.
Lots of words, none of which support the claim that Kerry is giving up on a negotiated solution.
BooMan, please don’t forget your dead certainty that the UN mission over Libya was going to push us down a slide, too.
This makes want to grab my head with both hands and say “WHY?! WHY?!” and I am someone who does worry about what will happen to the Syrian Christians though I don’t back either side.
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Don’t feel sorry for the Obama administration as the loss of life in Syria has topped 100,000. The lack of decisiveness while permitting an agressive stance in support of foreign rebels has back-fired. The quagmire has worsened and Obama has performed an about-face in the last week after John Kerry had worked the Middle-East for a comprehensive deal on Syria and a renewed start for peace talks between Israel and Palestine.
Obama has opted for the Qatar-Saudi Arabia axis of Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists who have interfered in the North African countries, similar how Europe and the USA used to have influence with tyrant regimes. How times have changed and letting world affairs catch up with historical faults in US policy.