For a brief period, Rep. Paul Ryan emerged as a potential deal-maker who could solve the impasse in Congress before a catastrophic default on our country’s debts. But any hope of that ended yesterday when Ryan spoke against a Collins-Manchin proposal under consideration in the Senate and complained:
“They’re trying to cut the House out, and trying to jam us with the Senate. We’re not going to roll over and take that,” said House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.).
In truth, senators from both parties had no choice but to conclude that the House of Representatives is incapable of agreeing to anything acceptable to the president so long as they insist on adhering to the Hastert Rule (no bill will be brought to the House floor unless it has the support of the majority of the Republican caucus).
With such fervor still rampant among House Republicans, there was bipartisan agreement in the Senate that Boehner’s House had lost its ability to approve anything that could be signed by Obama into law. Republicans decided the Senate must act first, hoping that the pressure of the Thursday debt deadline would lead to the House passing the measure even if it meant just a small collection of the GOP’s House majority joined with the Democratic minority to approve a deal.
“At this point, they have dealt themselves out of this process. They cannot agree among themselves,” Durbin said. “And that makes it extremely difficult to take them seriously.”
Again, the backdrop logic here is that default is an impossibility. The Senate will not fail to extend the debt ceiling, and they’ve given up on the idea that the majority of House Republicans will vote for an extension of the debt ceiling. Speaker Boehner now faces a choice between allowing a vote the majority of his caucus opposes or being responsible for a global financial meltdown. That’s an easy choice.
House Republicans are hopping mad, with different factions pointing fingers of blame in all directions: at the administration for being intransigent, at Ted Cruz for leading them astray, as the Senate Republicans for selling them out, at the Tea Party for being unrealistic, at the moderates for undermining their message, at the Speaker for ineffectiveness, at the press for being biased, at the polls for being skewed, and at the Democrats for being mean.
It’s no wonder that some people are calling these the Last Days of the GOP.
The battle over the shutdown has highlighted the cracks and fissures within the party. The party’s leadership has begun to lose control of its members in Congress. The party’s base has become increasingly shrill and is almost as dissatisfied with the Republican leadership in Washington as it is with President Obama. New conservative groups have echoed, and taken advantage of, this sentiment by targeting Republicans identified with the leadership for defeat. And a growing group of Republican politicians, who owe their election to these groups, has carried the battle into the halls of Congress. That is spelling doom for the Republican coalition that has kept the party afloat for the last two decades.
At this point, only one thing can still go wrong. If the Senate isn’t careful, they will delay things to the point that a single senator could cause a default by refusing to grant their consent to speed along the process of passing a bill before we hit the deadline. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell knows this, which is why he loses leverage with every minute that goes by without a deal.
Also available at the Washington Monthly.
I’m sure you have noticed that SteveM disagrees with the GOP breakup theory: “Trust me, these folks are going to work this out. First of all, crazy-base disappointment with the GOP is not exactly new. Crazy-base voters thought John McCain was a pathetic RINO. Did they bolt for a third party? No. They felt the same way in 2012 about Mitt Romney. Did they bolt then? No. They never bolt, because they hate liberals, Democrats, and the Democratic voter base as they perceive it (i.e., non-white moochers) far more than they hate one another.”
http://nomoremister.blogspot.com/2013/10/no-there-is-not-going-to-be-republican.html
Steve M. has a pessimistic lean while I have an optimistic lean. I think we’re rarely very far apart, but our temperaments are different.
What I’d like to see from Steve is a definition of what he’d like to see before he could be convinced that he’s seeing something he hasn’t seen before.
In the lead-up to the 2006 midterms, I kept expecting the Republicans to splinter and run for cover, but they never did. They walked in lockstep over into the abyss. It seemed that no degree of failure could divide them.
That has completely changed. We could write stories for the next month on all the ways that has changed.
We always look to political history as our crystal ball. That’s about all we have. But I think Nate Silver had at least one thing right in his analysis the other day. This situation is without any strong recent precedent. And as such, looking for meaning in other historically similar situations is, at most, an even bet.
I don’t know, but at this point, I am a bit worried. I don’t see the GOP breaking ranks and doing what’s right for the country.
I think I read someone’s comment the other day, here or someplace else, that the what the GOP covets above all else, even government small enough to “drown in the bathtub”, is being in charge. So, they didn’t break with Bush because he was the Commander-in-chief. Now, I fear they won’t break because their visceral hatred of Obama and the ever rightward and cocooning effect it has had on their ability to grasp reality is even less than it was in 2006.
I was on my Congressman’s town hall-by-phone call the other day, and his ability to delude himself (he’s not crazy;just not altogether bright) seems limitless. Like saying he didn’t vote for the sequester (he’s a huge military base with lots of civil service employees in the district)and laying all the blame on Harry Reid for not bringing up all those voting bills that the House keeps passing. That his party doesn’t want the government to be shut down. Yeah, and I’m Alice in Wonderland.
Much as I’d like to be wrong, I have to agree with this. The institutional pull is just too strong – I really don’t think that the various nutters comprising today’s Republican Party want to break up the existing party and guarantee themselves massive electoral losses for the foreseeable future by virtue of splitting the non-Democratic vote multiple ways.
BooMan, I have agreed with you analysis throughout this whole affair with one notable exception, your high level of confidence in the individual and group rationality of the Republicans in the Senate and the House. How can you be so sure that they will not screw up and let us default by taking us too close to the eleventh hour and 59th minute? You even describe one such potential screw up in the form of one too many senators not allowing a debt ceiling increase to proceed. Please walk me back from the ledge.
Well, if you’re on the ledge, what you want to look for is how much time a senator can chew up simply by refusing to grant his consent. But most things can be moved with 60 votes. To change the rules, it would take 67. So, things could get perilous, but the Senate can ultimately overcome one senator’s nihilism if it becomes necessary.
Getting pretty close to midnight, isn’t it?
Yeah, the possibility of incompetence and stupidity working together to push us off the cliff is increasing slightly. I’d ask why, if McConnell is acutely aware that he is losing leverage by the moment, he has not taking the Senate’s finger off the red button. But of course, that’s rhetorical: the biggest TEA Party organization in Kentucky has already withdrawn their endorsement of the Turtle, and he’s about to explode the collective heads of his insane base voters.
McConnell and Boehner, in their Job Preservation Strategies, are like the bomb expert who decides that it’s strategically beneficial to wait to defuse the bomb when the timer gets under one minute. This is no way to run a country.
Speaker Boehner now faces a choice between allowing a vote the majority of his caucus opposes or being responsible for a global financial meltdown. That’s an easy choice.
For a sane person, yes, it is. But when I read this all I could think of was how utterly gutless Bohener is, and how it’s just possible that drunken jackass will opt for the “Hastert Rule.” He’ll have a lot to cry about if he does.
I do hope these are the “Last Days of the GOP.” The Party really deserves to be destroyed.
Granted that I tend to be very pessimistic when it comes to these people – I know them, well – but I would actually fear for Boehner’s well-being if he allows a Senate bill to pass the House with minimal GOP support. They only thing these people hate more than a liberal is a traitor…
I’m with you, Oscar. Boehner’s constituents are basically my neighbors. I have grown up in the middle of this political crazy. And Boehner knows, too, what is lurking in his back yard when he returns home. I would not dare try to predict what the reaction will be among his base. One thing is certain, it will be very visceral.
One LARGE caveat here,
Newt didn’t “return home” he is lobbying and scamming the GOtPers as much as he can.
Neither did Denny Hastert. He’s a lobbyist
Dick Armey didn’t go back to Texas, he’s still mucking up the works as a lobbyist and scammer for the right wing fringe.
Dick Gephardt ain’t living in Missouri, he’s a lobbyist
Nor was Robert H. Michel slumbering on his back porch after leaving in 1995 ….. he’s a lobbyist
They don’t return home,
They become lobbyists,
It is that simple.
Bo”h”ner ain’t “going home” he’s gonna stay in DC.
Unless he really is stupid enuf to screw it all up, that nobody wants him like Tom Delay did …….
Paul Ryan has never looked like a deal-maker and always like a slick little weasel who thinks he can pull the wool over the eyes of Democrats. But he more than Ted Cruz is the guy that led the gang into the box canyon with his intellectual “brilliance”.
Except that it still takes 217 votes or so to actually avoid calamity and the Democrats can deliver only 200 of them. And the “moderates” that you are counting on are from the Jesse Helms-Newt Gingrich wing of the party (essentially anyone elected before 2004). These are the folks that invented the reign of “No”.
I’m not saying that when these guys stare into the abyss they won’t finally grasp reality. Just that it runs counter to all of their political habits and instincts for the past quarter century.
If you think there are 17 GOP representatives who will break ranks, it’s time to suss out who they might be. Even if the House votes out a clean debt ceiling bill, Boehner will not be one of the Yes votes. Drunken “principles” and all that.
Two things can go wrong. The Senate fails to vote in time. The House fails to vote in time. And the reason for both of those is GOP insistence on getting something out of the vote except capitulation. But that is a problem of GOP psychology; there is no concession that Democrats could offer that will change that–because the GOP would then assume that could hold out and get more.
It is unconditional surrender time for the GOP if we are to avoid a financial meltdown. That’s the way they have painted themselves into the corner.
You have absolutely no idea what Speaker Boehner or Minority Leader McConnell knows–only what they ought to know if they were responsible leaders, which is exactly what is at question in the upcoming days.
This perfectly synopsizes what is eating away at my gut, in spite of the optimistic takes which I so badly want to believe will play out. It feels like we are assuming that we know the exact maximum temperature we can allow on the rods of the political nuclear reactor before the meltdown starts. And I think it is plain this is one of worst possible assumptions we can make. But there seems to be a certain level of confidence among some that we can flip the switch at the exact perfect moment to avoid this meltdown calamity. I just don’t think we can presume to know that. The guys running the show for the GOP cannot be counted on to be responsible. That should scare the hell out of everyone.
Agree with this. I’m still sanguine, but the crosscutting pressures on McConnell and Boehner are excruciatingly high, and their characters and competence were shaky to begin with. There is an unhappy possibility of unintended consequences.
I can’t imagine the GOP will break up or anything like that … too much money involved, too many powerful forces. But they do seem to have navigated themselves into a political Kobayashi Maru scenario.
There are many possibilities but they ultimately condense down to two classes of scenario: 1) the Dems throw them a lifeline, 2) the Dems hold firm.
If (1) all it does is postpone the inevitable day of reckoning – the realization even amongst the Republicans with a hint of remaining sanity that the Tea Party-Evangelical base is crazy enough to blow up the world in the hopes that they’ll be king in the aftermath. We all are hoping that the Dems don’t cave – the longer you put off this day of reckoning the worse it will be when it comes.
If (2) happens someone on the GOP is going to have to reprogram the Kobayashi Maru computer … and that will be very interesting, in the proverbial curse sense.
Wow. The Republicans in the House ought to be embarrassed that less than a week away from the deadline they haven’t passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling, not even one an extortionary one with a ridiculous wish list of GOP demands attached. That is there job, isn’t it? And yet Ryan is now griping about the Senate passing one instead?
Perhaps House Republicans want to pass a bill on Wednesday before closing, figuring the Senate will have no choice but to pass whatever they propose, or the country goes into default? In the mean time, Senate Republicans can filibuster anything Democratic Senators propose.