Sam Stein reports in the Huffington Post that the Democrats are now moving on to the offensive as the Republicans’ leverage has all but vaporized.
Under the Budget Control Act, annual spending will be reduced to $967 billion around Jan. 15, regardless of the budget at the time. Democrats want to avoid that. They’ve concluded that it would be a misstep to put off a motivating moment (such as a budget deal ending) for those negotiations for six months, or to go on record supporting a six-month, $988 billion budget.
“[Waiting] would dis-incentivize the negotiation. It would put Democrats on a weaker ground,” said a top Senate Democratic aide. “If, in the next few days, we break the will of [Speaker] Boehner and Senate Republicans, and we pass both a clean CR and debt limit increase, I think that there is a belief within the Senate Democratic caucus that there is absolutely no way that they would have any leverage to make major demands in future negotiations about this, that we would be in a better position.”
Republican senators want to end the shutdown, but I doubt that they can capitulate to the degree that this Democratic aide would like. Republican Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, appearing on this morning’s Meet the Press, made clear that the Republicans will fold on the debt ceiling, even if it is only a short-term extension. There’s simply no way that the Republicans can allow a default. But they can hold out a little longer on the government shutdown, and I expect that they will if they aren’t offered anything tangible. The reason is exactly as the Democratic aide describes; if their will is completely broken, they will be in a very weak position on the budget.
Regardless, the Democrats have always seen that as a two-step process. First, break the Republicans of their habit of hostage-taking. Second, have a major battle on sequestration. They seem to be holding firm on that, and maybe even getting a little more aggressive a little earlier than I expected.
Love what I’m hearing from Senate Dem leadership. They aren’t just supporting the President’s position, they’ve got their hand on Obama’s back and are pushing him forward. What was the FDR quote? “I agree with everything you want me to do, now go out there and make me do it”? There’s a little of that going on here.
There’s a Democratic aide who should be told to shut up lest he derail the messaging.
I would not read one aide talking out of turn as anything unless you know which part of the Democratic caucus the aide is from. It makes a hell of a difference if its Alan Grayson’s aide or Jim Matheson’s aide just to take two examples. Or if it’s Charles Schumer’s or Dick Durbin’s or Jim Clyburn’s aide.
I think the point Senate Dems are making is that if Republicans want a concession right now, they won’t get it in exchange for opening the government and raising the debt ceiling. The consistent messaging from Obama and Dems is that those are not bargaining chips. If the GOP getting something now makes it easier for their leaders to sell a deal to enough of their members that they will provide the guaranteed bipartisan votes to walk away from this latest cliff, then they’ll have to give us something too.
To be clear, I’d prefer a clean reopening and ceiling raise to a bigger deal. Negotiating something bigger under extremely short notice sound dangerous to me, and is not the simple defeat we need. Putting sequester adjustments on the table, and not other spending less digsted and more complicated, is effective in pushing back against the GOP negotiation strategy, though.
I’m surprised the Republicans filibustered the debt limit increase (as opposed to the usual suspects letting cloture squeak by). At this point, if he chooses to, Reid can simply keep calling cloture votes with Democratic Senators asking for unanimous consent to proceed to a vote every hour or so. The politics of the Republican Senators not even allowing a vote as a default approaches would be catastrophic for them and they’d be forced to fold humiliatingly. Reid’s not choosing to do this at present but the Senate Republicans’ bargaining position is absolutely terrible.
They have no leverage over the CR, either, because the Senate has already passed a very reasonable compromise short-term CR. It’s odd that they put their heads on the chopping block for the debt limit after purposefully keeping it off for the CR.
I certainly like your optimistic view BooMan that the debt limit will be passed. I’ve read so many articles the last few days that I don’t know where I saw this. I remember Boehner saying something about having a plan for Oct. 15th and that he wouldn’t let the country default. Maybe that was even one of your posts.
I grew up in a red/KKK county/state and my family was big into conspiracy theories so I heard them all when I was growing up. The very irrational, illogical actions and words of the GOP makes me wonder what they are doing and why. It doesn’t make any sense to me.
I read this Dana Milbank piece from the 9th:
The shutdown’s enforcer-in-chief
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-the-shutdowns-enforcer-in-chief/2013/10/09/0b86d
924-312d-11e3-89ae-16e186e117d8_story.html?hpid=z3
….At the moment, Needham is fighting alongside Republicans. But Heritage Action’s broader goal is to turn the GOP into a “libertarian populist” party freed from Wall Street and K Street…..
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It’s all been so strange that the only wingnut plan I can think of for shutdown/default is that maybe they are trying to push POTUS to invoke some extraordinary measure to avoid default and then try to impeach him. A long process, but if their ideas was that the CR still wouldn’t have passed then chaos would be increased. Maybe this has been a part of an intention of the Koch’s or whoever is backing Heritage for some power grab. We’ve certainly seen a path of judicial judgments and voter suppression as well as dysfunction in congress that have led to this point that could have had a goal of a backdoor coup. An incredibly messy, stupid Wiley Coyote plan that would depend on everyone in the world not watching anything but Fox News, but they seem detached enough from reality to think it would work.
If so, then it’s out in the open and people who aren’t Fox News watchers are able to see it. Media is seeing it. Voters see it. Democrats are mobilized and energized. I know I personally would like to crush them like a bug.
Well, we do know that large swaths of the right wing have been salivating at the prospect of impeaching Obama ever since he was sworn in. And we do know that they inhabit a bubble that tells them stuff like government is a useless waste of money and default wouldn’t be a big deal. We also know they regard any Democrat in office, and particularly this President, as illegitimately usurping the GOP’s rightful hold on power.
Thank you for grounding me in reality a bit. Even though I live in a red state and hear this stuff, it’s so bizarre to me I can’t relate to it or understand it.
One way of looking at it is that none of them has a real public plan at all; that Needham and DeMint in particular are building careers and not truly interested in what happens to the country.