I am still a little annoyed that former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer decided not to run for Max Baucus’s senate seat, although I can hardly blame him for not wanting to join that hapless organization. I welcome, however, the news that he is seriously considering a presidential run. I do not think he can win the nomination for a couple of reasons. While he has a very progressive streak, his record on guns and coal probably places him far enough out of the Democratic mainstream that progressives will not unite around his candidacy. And he doesn’t have enough of a money-base to compete with the Big Dogs without colossal progressive backing.
Nonetheless, I think he would bring an important populist voice to the debate and could easily distinguish himself enough to be a very attractive running mate. Among the names that are being tossed about, only Martin O’Malley strikes me as a more natural progressive choice.
Montana only has three electoral votes, but you can say the same thing about Joe Biden’s Delaware. If Brian Schweitzer has some coattails, it will be less as a regional player than as a political flavor. There’s an atrophied part of the left-wing coalition that is still represented somewhat by Minnesota’s Democratic Farmer-Labor Party. It isn’t really a crucial part of the coalition for the purposes of winning the Electoral College, but bolstering its appeal can really put the Republicans on the defensive.
The Democrats real national strength comes through a combination of growing power in the southwest, including Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and (soon) Arizona, along with their recent competitiveness in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. As long as the 2016 Democratic candidate is strong in those areas, they almost cannot lose the contest. But, bringing in a degree of prairie populism will add strength to their efforts in the Upper Midwest, particularly in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and will release some of the tension that has built up from the party taking on such a strong coastal character.
A lot of people who feel culturally estranged from Obama and Biden will not feel the same way about Schweitzer. So, I think Schweitzer can pull in some support from the far left and some support from the middle, and also have significant crossover appeal. He strikes me as an almost ideal running mate.
If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, picking Schweitzer as her running mate would be a mostly reassuring choice to progressives that wouldn’t alienate the middle.
I hope he runs.
“A lot of people who feel culturally estranged from Obama and Biden will not feel the same way about Schweitzer”
lawl. i love the euphemism twister games we play.
Pant suits and bolo ties?
Who will think of the children?
re: guns .. I believe he supported the Manchin bill that died in the Senate. And he’s also not afraid to advocate for single-payer. Funny you mention coal. Obama was all for “clean coal,” at the least, as a Senator and no one batted an eye.
He would have my support at this point. I’ve always admired the guy. We need a populist and though Hillary would be very appealing to women and others, she is in many ways the previous story. Schweitzer would represent a nation moving to energy independence, environmental mindfulness, experience in governing, with a good understanding of the Middle East, and a very good fiscal record in Montana. I’ll send $$$ to help when it’s time.
I’ll crawl across broken glass for anyone that has a veto branding iron. I’m in MT, and it really was no surprise that he passed on the Senate. DC is a cesspool. Why do that to yourself unless you’re going to have real power?
Weird.
His style doesn’t appeal to me, but I definitely think he’d be a good addition. I remember in 2008 some people talking about him hoping he’d run in 2016, and it just didn’t connect with me. Similar to why I don’t like Ed Schultz I guess.
However, Schweitzer is extremely charismatic, and I think he’d bring a lot of energy and flair to any campaign. I agree with your analysis to a tee.
So how does Schweitzer become known if he’s out of office? Or does he run for governor again?
Campaigning in other states is always a way for unknowns to get themselves known. Schweitzer has the potential for making the case for Democrats in Texas races. Texas has the second largest number of electoral votes. It would be interesting to see if Montana culture is a key to unlocking Texas for Democrats.
By 2016, coal will be less of an issue because the shift away from coal is already gathering momentum. But jobs in former coal-mining areas will be a huge issue. Too many of those areas have been kept single-industry locations by local barons for so long that creating other opportunities is going to require outside help. So he could have some strength in Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania. And in those areas, his position on guns is not a handicap.
It would be an interesting addition to what most folks think is a foregone conclusion. And foregone conclusions don’t generate a lot of electoral excitement.
He would be great at running against the Obama Social Security cuts–‘technical fixes’ I mean. Seriously, I just hope Dems don’t get too cute in budget negotiations so the next Den candidate isn’t in the position of running against the party.
Yes! We’re back to discussing elections that are still three years away. That means there aren’t any terrifying crises at the moment. How nice.
All I ask of ’16 is that, if Hillary wins, there be someone in the administration to pull her to the left.
My impression is that O’Malley is rather bland, while Schweitzer can light up a room.
I have very mixed feelings about Hillary – her strengths are amazing but when she’s bad she’s awful. I love Elizabeth Warren but have yet to be convinced she can run a national campaign. I really think Biden will be too old, and he’s never fixed his gaffe problem. Andrew Cuomo is a liberal nightmare.
I’m open to someone new, but right now I think Schweitzer is one of the best candidates out there.
Jon Lovett, The Atlantic: How the GOP Slowly Went Crazy
That should be a cautionary tale for Democrats as well.
I really like the guy and if Christie ends up running he would be a good way to neutralize some of Christie’s appeal.
If he can some get a brain in his head on coal I can overlook the guns and support him against Clinton. Like she told me in 2008, if I was concerned about foreign policy skill I should vote for the other guy. I did.
As this time, there is only one Democrat with the campaign chops, legislative experience, and political orientation and policy issues good enough to beat Christie and change the direction of the country. That would be Senator Sherrod Brown. Too bad liberal Democrats aren’t drafting him to run and instead are meekly accepting the “it’s my turn” retread. (Note: “it’s my turn” Dole, Kerry, McCain and Romney all lost. And Gore ran a crappy enough campaign that he allowed a doofus like GWB to get close enough to steal the election.)