I disagree with Steve M. on two points with regard to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Steve’s initial point is not related to the scandalous revelations that the four-day closure of lanes on the George Washington Bridge was indeed an act of pure vindictiveness aimed at the mayor of Fort Lee in retaliation for refusing to endorse Christie’s reelection. Steve’s initial point is that Christie blew any chance he may have had to win the Republican nomination when he decided to sign the DREAM Act.

Now, I think it’s potentially true that Christie cannot win the nomination with a record of moderation on immigration, but there isn’t really much point in seeking the nomination if you are only going to lose in the general election. Over the last few presidential cycles it has become clear that the Republicans are incapable of winning the general election with anything but the smallest of margins. Since 1988, the GOP candidate has lost the popular vote in every cycle except 2004. They have also lost the Electoral College in every cycle except 2004, unless you consider the 2000 results in Florida to be an accurate representation of the will of Floridians that year. Even in 2004, if Ohio had gone the other way, John Kerry would have carried the College. With states like Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada trending more and more blue, the GOP simply cannot afford to nominate someone who isn’t a moderate on immigration. If I am advising Chris Christie on a presidential run, I have to tell him that his only chance to actually become president is to position himself for the general election. Signing the DREAM Act could allow him to change the electoral map, and if it costs him a chance to win the nomination, so be it. It isn’t worth trying to win the other way.

The second difference I have with Steve, is that he thinks the revelations about the George Washington Bridge that have come out today are not a smoking gun.

The revelation today in the bridge scandal is “that one of the governor’s top aides was deeply involved in the decision to choke off [Fort Lee]’s access to the bridge,” according to emails — evidence that this was a political vendetta against a mayor who wouldn’t endorse Christie. Yeah, but if there’s never a smoking gun linking Christie directly, people who want to dismiss it will say it was the aide’s fault. Aides can be fired. This still seems as if it will be contained sooner or later.

In this case, it’s not that there is evidence that Chris Christie directed Bridget Ann Kelly to close the bridge. It’s that it is now clear that Christie has been lying about what happened for months and months. In the case of Watergate, the crimes were worse than the cover-up, but the reverse is the case here. Closing a bridge as petty revenge is kind of ugly, but it’s actually not much of a big deal in the context of New Jersey politics, which are always played with clubs and baseball bats. But, prolonged and extensive prevarication and elaborate lying about an issue destroys your credibility. This cannot all be laid at the feet of an overeager staffer. Bridget Anne Kelly serves as the governor’s deputy chief of staff, and she directed David Wildstein of the Port Authority to close lanes on the bridge: “Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee.”

We know that she initiated the closure, possibly on her own initiative, possibly not. But we also know that Christie decided to cover up the role of his office and to deny any knowledge about the closures. And the coverup has been extensive.

Other top Christie associates mentioned in or copied on the email chain, all after the top New York appointee at the authority ordered the lanes reopened, include David Samson, the chairman of the agency; Bill Stepien, Christie’s re-election campaign manager and the newly appointed state GOP chairman; and Michael Drewniak, Christie’s spokesman.

Christie has previously said that no one in his staff or campaign was involved in the lane closings, and he has dismissed questions about political retribution by joking that he moved the traffic cones himself.

Everyone on that email chain knew that the governor’s office had ordered the closures. Christie’s credibility in New Jersey has been destroyed, even though most people didn’t really care about the lane closures.

How does that translate to the national stage?

I think a good precedent is to look at how Sarah Palin’s destroyed credibility in Alaska undermined her, led to her ultimate resignation, and finished her as a politician. If you are weak at home, you have no foundation to build on.