I haven’t done a poll here in years. But let’s try it out. Who do you think the Republicans will ultimately nominate as their candidate for president in 2016? Click on ‘comments’ to take the poll.
Please explain your reasoning.
About The Author
BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
It’s hard for me to answer this, because I think the GOP will split, meaning that they’ll essentially nominate two candidates instead of one.
Okay. How do you see that playing out?
I think the establishment will have to run Jeb. Christie’s goose is already cooked.
The insurrection will go to Cruz. He’s the one guy I see who has the balls to defy the party leadership, and frankly all the kooks love him.
As a former Wisconsinite, I think Scott Walker is a disaster. However, if he wins another term in a blue state, he’ll be a strong contender for R’s nomination. Jeb, I hope, is still tainted by W’s 8 years, but who knows until the field materializes on both sides.
I think Walker, for the reason you said. Who else combines such fanatical Kochaholism with proven, recent blue/purple-state electability?
Ted Cruz, because he is the manifestation of the raw, primitive Ailes/Fox id.
Yes. This, and also:
actually, thanks to his mom’s us citizenship, cruz was in fact “born in a constitutionally sanctioned status” and therefore is not barred from running. but the misconceptions surrounding his eligibility don’t win cruz any points with his base, from which a splinter of misguided “constitutional purists” will decide to stay home. however, despite eight years of railing against the “kenyan usurper”, most will prove themselves the hypocrites they are by blaming obama for breaking the rules first as they cast their ballot for someone else they believe ineligible.
He is the canny sociopath.
To me, the strongest candidate remains Cruz. I just think he has the least number of liabilities as compared to any of the others. He is currently the most beloved politician of the GOP base, and he keeps making moves to consolidate that support, such as hiring the recently-fired Paul Teller. He has zero liabilities on his right wing, as far as I can tell. He is charismatic in his way. He’s “smart,” in that he’s very gifted intellectually. And as a champion debater, he will clean the floor with the other candidates at the GOP debates, which we learned last year play a big role in the GOP nomination.
His biggest liability is that the GOP establishment, such as it is, loathes him and will do everything in its power to kneecap him. Normally that would be by cutting off the money spigot. But just as with the Democrats, grassroots money is a powerful force these days in the Republican party. Cruz doesn’t need the RNC or the Chamber of Commerce to be well-funded. And Ailes isn’t going to keep him off Fox News – he’s great for ratings.
Both in his ideological positioning and as a pure gin-’em-up politician, I think he’s stronger from a base perspective than all his opponents:
So that leaves Cruz as the last man standing. I think the base will finally get their Goldwater in 2016, and it will be Cruz.
By the way, my opinions on Jeb come from growing up under him as FL governor for 8 years. I don’t doubt his political skills. But his brother ruined everything for him.
“But his brother ruined everything for him.”
That is about the only thing keeping him from running, though. He is no doubt a savvy politician, with deep connections to the Latino community, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he disavows his brother’s “accomplishments”. I too, was and still am in Florida, and Scott makes Jeb look like a saint.
I also see his silence on many matters as part of the rehabilitation of the Bush name. The only issue for him is how long that will take, and after all, how long did it take for the sainthood of Reagan?
Huckabee is a very mean man. In fact, he’s as mean as the rest of them. He’s the one I fear most because he has the ability to come off as the likeable uncle even though he’s an evil asshole.
Paul Ryan. Normally I go with “whoever did 2nd best in the last set of primaries,” but that would be Santorum, who was really just the last Nut-of-the-Month. Ryan is the only guy with a national profile who’s acceptable to both the evil business wing and the unhinged base. Must be those Hitler Youth good looks. Walker doesn’t have the profile, Cruz and Paul aren’t acceptable to the business wing, and the rest are either unacceptable to the base or basically washed-up.
Too early to make the call.
As an ex marketing man my judgement will be based on how saleable he is as determined by the GOP gods and their backers.
Same case as Romney … they manipulated him to win, knowing the other lulu crowd would mean a bloodbath at the polls.
Keep in mind the math and probability factors.
Without this control they are of no use to the backers a bit like news papers… they’re only of value good if they can hold the major demographics.
The win of the congress and Potus two won’t be on the backs of the average republican member rather the average voter.
5.human nature “Me first” will be paramount neither the gods or Backers really want an uncontrollable (loose cannon read TPer controlled) congress or Potus.
Business would be viewing all elections as opportunities to increase their power aka bottom lines.
Why do you think they hate donation control so much?
The interesting war is over who controls GOP.
Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
Next in line, and is quietly burnishing his “bipartisan” credentials. Note that Ryan got to stand and get pictures taken of himself with Patty Murray as a result of this new bullshit budget.
I think he gets beat pretty soundly. The score will look closer than it is, and it will feel closer at times, but it will be a rout much like Obama-Romney was.
It’s weird that I didn’t even think to include Ryan in the poll. That was a mistake on my part.
It’s way too early to handicap a process that’s 27-30 months from any clarity. I voted none of the above, based on a couple of assumptions:
I don’t see any of my GOP true believer friends making a selection yet, but they are active in trying to tear down Hillary Clinton. Benghazi. Benghazi. Subtext is the counter-historical “Democrats can’t keep you safe.”
There is a lot riding on the governors and Congressional elections this year as far as who the candidates might be.
Paul Ryan is out with his dismissive comments that angered GOP military veterans.
I think that Christie is fundamentally out except for some parts of New Jersey.
I don’t see how Jeb Bush gets traction, but he is the most likely ABH candidate.
Kelly Ayotte could be a wild card ABH-type candidate.
But if the 2014 elections go their way, there is Scott Walker, John Kasich, and whatever remaining unretired GOP Senators are re-elected.
No real field until December 2014.
I voted for Kasich.
The Republican electorate in Presidential years is pragmatic. They will nearly always vote for someone perceived to be electable. And the establishment has a veto. So, none of the crazies (and this includes Cruz) has a chance.
It comes down to a contest between Ryan, Jeb, Kasich, Walker, and dark horse Huckabee. The family name will weigh Jeb down. Under the scrutiny of the primary season, Walker will be seen to have governed as a crazy. Huckabee is very acceptable both to the establishment and the religious right, but a dark horse.
That leaves Ryan and Kasich as the “moderates” standing. Governors are nearly always going to trump legislators, especially with Congress in such terrible odor. And Ryan has made specific budget proposals that GOP voters may sense will ultimately make him unelectable, despite the fawning press he always receives. It’s a tossup, but the contrarian in me plumps for Kasich.
As someone living neck deep in the Kasich saga here in Ohio, I’m not sure how Kasich gets that MODERATE label.
There are shenanigans going on here in Ohio right now that are every bit as radical as anything we have seen in Virginia and North Carolina. And Kasich’s approving fingerprints are on every piece of this far right legislation that is slowly making its way through the State House.
If he does become a serious contender, watch what happens when the light switch of national scrutiny actually gets turned on here in the state. You will see the cockroaches scatter. Just because people are not seeing the roaches or paying attention to them right now does not mean they are not there.
I give you the enlightened person’s guide to the 2008 presidential elections vis-a-vis 2005:
Evan Bayh
Joe Biden
Wesley Clark
Hillary Rodham Clinton
John Edwards
Russ Feingold
Al Gore
John Kerry
Bill Richardson
Al Sharpton
Mark Warner.
NOTICE WHOSE NAME IS MISSING????? Of them ALL, the only names to end up being taken seriously was HRC, and Richardson. All the other prospectives don’t show up (Dean for example).
It’s TOO DAMN EARLY. It makes far more sense to speculate how good are the Cubbies chances in 2016 (ans: not very).
Depressing enough that it left a huge opening for Obama to fill.
In the past sixty plus years, there have been but three exceptions to the GOP nominating from the seemingly bland, boring, and conventional ranks of the pack. Exceptions, Nixon, Goldwater, Nixon, and GWB. It’s why guys like Pawlenty and Brownback thought they had a chance. What they missed is that it’s the bland, boring, … guy that is the best connected with the money folks and media.
Christie was trying to inherit the Nixon/GWB crown (apparently far too much and way too early as it’s turning out). Romney is behaving as if he thinks he still has a shot at 2016 (he doesn’t but why disillusion someone that has money to dump into the process?). iirc, the last time the VP on a losing ticket went on to become POTUS was FDR, but there were twelve years, a governorship, and a continuing Great Depression between those two runs for office. Would rate Ryan’s chances for 2016 at close to zero.
Scott Walker has the appearance of a dumb guy — and not graduating from college reinforces that perception.
Kasich may be where the Cristie money begins to go.
Kasich, if they nominate a grifter Republican.
Cruz if they nominate a true believer Republican.
Cruz, because he’s slightly less dead than Reagan and Goldwater. All signs point to the establishment of the GOP having lost control of their monster.