There has been a lot of analysis on what it will take for Texas to become a purple (and eventually, a blue) state, and when that might happen. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) is warning that it could happen by 2024 if the GOP doesn’t become more inclusive. Organizers on the ground are trying to make it happen in 2016, although that is unlikely to happen.
There has been some polling that suggested that Hillary Clinton would be very competitive in Texas, although I can’t imagine her dedicating the kind of resources she would need to make a sincere effort there.
Regardless, statistics like these show that it’s only a matter of time before the GOP succumbs in the Lone Star State:
By 2050, the number of Texas public school students is expected to swell to nine million from roughly five million now, and nearly two-thirds will be Hispanic, according to Steve Murdock, a demographer and director of Rice University’s Hobby Center for the Study of Texas. The overall percentage of white students will drop by half to about 15 percent. Without an accompanying change in Hispanics’ current socioeconomic status, that also means Texas students will continue to grow poorer — and their education more expensive — in the next four decades, Dr. Murdock added.
The Republicans can compete for those votes, but they can’t compete for them as a conservative party. Personally, I think Texas will be truly competitive in 2028, but not before unless there is a major disparity in the quality of presidential candidates. That disparity could manifest itself in 2016, but I wouldn’t bet on it being big enough to matter in Texas.
It’s actually quite a bit worse than the analysts projections. Projections (like economic projections) make many assumptions. One of those is that the white youth population will follow the same general political makeup as the current adult population.
Sorry, nope it don’t work that way. I’ve been through this 3 times now: Mississippi, the Marine Corps, and New Mexico. Each time, the coming generation becomes more like the encroaching population than the preceeding generation. Thus, you get a Don Seigleman in AL, a Jimmy Carter in GA, Al Gore in TN, and so forth. Today, the current crop of R’s in the South could not have gotten elected in the South of the 50’s.
It takes time, but it does work itself out.
When you say “…you get a Don Seigelman in AL,…” I presume you are referring to Mr. Siegelman’s imprisonment on fabricated charges.
Texas will have shut down public schools long before that point.
You can figure out who’s going to need them, and from there it’s not hard to figure out the rest….
TX Hispanics are becoming increasingly republican. . .
http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/07/texas-hispanics-less-democratic-those-other-states/
Interesting.
Registration and turnout are everything… 2016 may be a reach, but starting the registration and turnout drives early and keeping them going is crucial. The turnout gap is huge, much bigger than the number of Hispanic conservatives.
The Texas GOP is fractured, possibly even worse than the national party. We have four Republicans running for Lieutenant Governor (the most powerful office in Texas, though few realize this). All four insist that creationism should be taught in the public schools. That doesn’t sound like a split until you realize that the big bidness Republicans, who recoil in horror at what these idiots will do to the business climate here, didn’t even bother fielding a candidate. The Dem candidate, Leticia Van de Putte, is a longtime fixture in the Texas legislature and is well respected by the old school Republicans for her smarts and reasonableness on issues that matter to them.
The focus on demographic shift is thus misplaced. The question for 2016 is, “What will the old guard Republicans do?” I know more than a few who wouldn’t really mind seeing the extremists get saddled with a disastrous loss this year. Whether they run their own slate, or simply sit this one out, this cycle is going to be a bit unlike anything we’ve seen here in quite awhile.
One always reads that the Governor of Texas is merely a Constitutional figurehead and that the executive power (including the origination of policy?) actually rests with the Lieutenant Governor. Is this true and if so, is it possible to explain concisely how it came to be?
And more importantly controls the budgeting process as leader of Legislative Budget Board
Copying from Wikipedia because this is a correct explanation:
“By the rules of the Senate, the Lieutenant Governor establishes all special and standing committees, appoints all chairpersons and members, and assigns all Senate legislation to the committee of his choice.”
“I know more than a few who wouldn’t really mind seeing the extremists get saddled with a disastrous loss this year.”
No way. There’s no evidence I see that the larger set of “big bidness Republicans…recoil in horror at what these idiots will do to the business climate.” Also, I can’t believe that “old guard Republicans” in Texas will shed the intense tribalism/racism that appears to be a fixture in State politics. Finally, the money class in Texas sees their fever dream in sight: the death of the Great Society and New Deal programs. Let the Democrats win when V-Day is nigh? No.
It’s demographics that’ll finish off the Republicans in Texas, not a sudden lurch to rationalism by their Big Money Boys.
I think the best thing will be to nominate Cruz to keep Texas red.
Please, please, please.
Texas/GOP needs to prepare for that kind of population growth. When is the GOP of TX going to start the 10 year plan that’s needed to secure water for 2028…the plan that should have started 5 years ago. Currently, the frackers are using up the ground water so there is none left for human consumption. Water security will turn TX blue.
I’d bet on Georgia turning blue before Texas does. Either way, the Democratic structural advantage in presidential elections is only likely to be enhanced as time goes by. The big question is whether the Democrats will finally grow up and learn that you absolutely must win at local level – because the party that runs the state house can do an awful lot to support or defeat the president’s national agenda.