Bill Schneider hits on what is frustrating me about American politics at the moment. We’re basically locked in state in which, barring some confluence of unexpected events, the Democrats will win presidential elections and continue to fail to win control of the House of Representatives. The Senate was designed to march to its own drum, and that is what it will do. In November, the Democrats have almost no chance of winning seats in the Senate regardless of what they do, while in 2016, the Republicans will be slaughtered in the Senate elections for two reasons. First, it’s a presidential election year, which means that there will high Democratic turnout. Second, the Republicans did very well in 2010, so they have a lot of seats in competitive states to defend. In other words, everything seems baked in the cake, and I feel powerless to do anything but play around on the margins.
The margins are important, but it’s hard to get excited about protecting Senate seats rather than picking them up. It’s hard to get pumped up to cut the House Republicans’ advantage from 32 down to 10. We want to win something and change something, but it doesn’t seem like there is anything we can do to change the basic political environment.
Obviously, this doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t try, but my head could be in a better place.
This feeling of helplessness is informing my thoughts on the 2016 election and what I think about how progressives should position themselves. The trouble is, I can’t really reconcile myself to what my head is telling me, which is that Hillary Clinton has an inexplicably broad ideological appeal and that she could break this impasse and carry a supermajority in the Senate and control of the House along with her.
The word ‘could’ is very important here. If she could guarantee that she would pull off the troika, then we’d obviously be nuts not to support her candidacy. But she has already failed in spectacular fashion once. And supporting her candidacy will come at a steep price for progressives, who would otherwise have much to say about the future of the party.
And then there is her foreign policy judgment, which should not be trusted and explains almost entirely why she is not already the president.
It’s just hard for me to accept that we might have to wait until 2022 to be able to end this divided government, and I keep trying not to succumb to the siren call of Hillary’s campaign because I really do feel like she is the only person who could expedite the process.
And that doesn’t just frustrate me. It makes me depressed.
I believe you are a fool for continuing to push Hillary. Everything you need to know about Hillary at THIS MOMENT should be obvious with her NOT pushing Priorities USA to be as active in the 2014 races ad possible. The neon lights screaming of the selfishness of Camp Clinton is smacking you upside the head. They won’t do any work for 2014, and if the GOP wins the Senate,we will only hear more of the HILLARY AS OUR WHITE SAVIOR bullshyt that you have been pushing for awhile now. To which I say fuck that. Barack Obama has shown how to WIN convincingly WITHOUT needing one Southern State, or anything close to a majority of the White vote. You all push the Hillary is inevitable bullshyt if you want.
It’s interesting that you interpret this post as “pushing” Hillary, when it is pretty clearly about my resistance to the idea.
You are familiar with where I stood in 2008, are you not?
The challenge is that we are so stuck right now and Hillary’s numbers are insanely good.
I’m a political organizer and a political analyst, and those two impulses are at war with each other right now.
That’s why I am unhappy.
I got the pushing Hillary vibe too despite having certain differences with the post you’re replying to.
I’m going with Hillary this time bc she is beating Kasich & every other GOP gov, & Senator. That’s how I feel today and frankly that’s our only chance to control Congress again. There is no Obama out there this time. I like Warren & OMalley, but they would be as powerless as Obama to get what they want from Congress. Hillary might have more luck as she has more connections. Just the way I feel today which might change tomorrow!
are you sure we won’t pick up senate seats or is it just that those we might pick up are cancelled out by those we lose? anyway, important issues to keep front and center as it were during these years and one never knows when a
Repub will shoot him/ herself in the foot
[in other bad news, I guess you saw Rush Holt is retiring. but maybe he will challenge Menendez, or work on green energy or something; still, I’m sorry to lose him]
All I can say is that I’ve been pondering the same thing, along with the grim reality that our banking system was never fixed and we’re staring at another bubble burst, this time during somebody’s Democratic administration. Then what?
Politics just kind of sucks and is dismal lately. Even the Repubs are feeling it. No one is getting what they want right now and won’t for quite awhile still. Progs feel deeply stymied, even though we seem to be “winning” the long game. Way too much unnecessary pain in the country right now.
And hell, from a political junkie’s perspective, 2014 is surely going to be a lame and predetermined election. Even 2010 was more of a buzz.
After that, though, things will get pretty interesting, pretty quick.
We may have to be patient and concentrate on progressive victories in various cities and states. Also, some companies are under fire to increase pay and benefits. Just keeping a check on the Republicans is a big deal. I have been concerned about what has happened at the state level in many of these red states. Crazy right-wing legislation is being proposed on a daily basis.
left has lost so badly in some states like TN TT, nowhere to go but up.
says it all bebbe. I hear sirens, too.
Stuff your sailors’ ears with wax, and lash yourself to the mast.
I went through a similar phase after the 2010 elections. How could it be after the disastrous Bush presidency, that american voters would turn on the democrats so soon? How could it be that the elderly…who benefit so much from the generosity of society, would turn on their younger friends and family in a selfish temper tantrum over health insurance for poor people.
My depression turned to anger when I realized that millions of obama voters simply didn’t show up in 2010. I am angry at them and the despicable and selfish old people who enabled the GOP takeover.
Those are the people to blame for this state of affairs. So why should I care what happens to them? I’m doing fine. If them millions of elderly and uninsured cannot be bothered to provide the political support required to maintain the benefits they receive, why should I provide it for them? If the people of “red states” send crazy people to congress out of spite and hatred for their fellow citizens, why should I give a crap what happens to them?
And Mr. BooMan is right that Clinton cannot be trusted on foreign policy… the thing is, no one in either party can.
>we might have to wait until 2022 to be able to end this divided government
what makes you pick the midterms of hillary’s 2nd term? the census?
also, do you think it would be smart (if possible) to have warren as VP? Losing her in the senate in exchange for making her a potential frontrunner 2024 or 2020 if HC doesn’t or can’t run?
and if not, who? VP is a “margin” that might turn out to be very important
Hillary Clinton will deliver nothing, either domestically or internationally, except the aformentioned Hillary Clinton, who is a package offer including her Bill and a whole crowd of financial and industrial cronies. She is the shipwreck that will bring a Repugnant back to the White House. My intution tells me that she left DoS because she was not in step with Obama’s take on Iran. She lives in the WW2, which happened before she was born, that’s how much of DINO she is, and the Cold War, the time the we’re-the-greatest-crowd reigned supreme.
Well, the “we’re the greatest crowd” is still around and reigns supreme, at least in the sense that pols from both parties still have to repeat the mantra to avoid charges they may be disloyal anti-military pacifists or squishy soft on the notion of American Supremacy.
And from what I’ve seen in the news lately, it looks like another Cold War is brewing between us and the Russkies, especially over Ukraine. And Putin probably isn’t too pleased it was an American ref who disallowed that Russkie game-winner in hockey the other day.
Vlad may be one mean mofo after these Games of the X___ Winter Olympics have concluded. I’m thinking an invasion of Finland, on accounta that last hockey game, maybe a later invasion of Alaska (though I suspect that happens only after this country breaks apart in civil war, which happens in this calculation probably sometime before the 2024 election).
So it turns out that a tough character like Hillary might be the right person for the times. I would like to hear her comment on the situation in Ukraine though. But I doubt her position will be very critical of the too-intrusive Obama attitude.
The baby boomer segment of the TP itself is changing. A crashing economy when that set was poised to enter a comfortable retirement; they were looking for a Reagan to guide the Country and weather the storm not an untried newcomer who happened to be black. Their panic made them easy prey for Glenn Beck & Fox.
TP approval now is what, 8% or less? They don’t even believe in themselves any more.
These mid terms mean not judging on a net gain in Congress but on the quality of the gains we make to replace the McConnells and the TP obstructionists. And of course by quality I mean a solid Dem. These midterms set up the next Dem president, Hillary or not, with leverage Obama hasn’t seen.
I think if you really believe what you’ve laid out, supporting Hillary is an almost unavoidable conclusion. Breaking the current GOP stranglehold on the House while putting a centrist Dem in the White House will do much more to advance liberal policy goals than putting a true progressive in the White House while the GOP hangs on to the House.
Now maybe your mistrust of Hillary’s foreign policy judgement is enough that you can’t support her under any circumstances. If that’s the case, the considerations around the House and domestic policy are kind of irrelevant, right? I’m guessing it’s not the case, though, because if Hillary wins the nomination, you’re going to go all out supporting her in order to beat the grotesque hairball the GOP will inevitably hawk up and nominate.
The problem with Hillary is that she will be the Democratic party if she wins, and we will own every move she makes. I don’t trust her to be that person.
The other problem is that after two decades at the peak of American power, the Clintons owe a lot to a lot of people. If we elect her then we are also electing all of them, and many of them are stale and starting to stink.
Personally I’ve been lulled into not worrying too much about Hillary because she hasn’t been in a position upset me in the last 6 years. She was a good soldier at State, and Bill has supported the President. It’s hard to remember that I was so against her candidacy in 2008 that I got in my car and drove to Iowa to support Obama and continued to fight in every way I could through the primary season.
But all the reasons I opposed her in ’08 still exist, and if I had another candidate to support I would jump that way. The real problem is that lack of a better candidate with a realistic shot at winning the election.
Here’s the Venn diagram for that:
O O
We like to chuckle at the slim pickings on the GOP side for 2016, but other than Hillary, who do the Dems have? Even more than usual, 2016 is shaping up as a choice between bad and worse.
yup. biden or Clinton, how is that going to not make you dipressed
And Eugene V. Debs is dead, too.
It’s impossible to know who else we have because everybody expects Hillary to run which means any other strong Democratic candidate is refusing to throw their hat in the ring. I think we actually have a pretty deep bench, but we’ll never know it if Hillary is the only one seriously making any moves.
But you know what? If Hillary can deliver strong majorities in both houses of Congress, then she’ll do. She won’t be perfect, but she’ll do.
As did her predecessor. Because we don’t have separate heads of state and leaders of government of the day, we’re electing a monarch and a president.
The first office is totemic, and symbolic. People will engage in statement voting for it, not necessarily with strict regard for policy or ideology.
My scary scenario is that Hillary doesn’t run, whoever wins the Dem nomination loses, and the Republicans control the entire government. Maybe Biden or Warren or O’Malley or Hickenlooper (my dark horse fave)or whoever can win, but it would be a lot closer than my poor old heart could stand.
Out of the ashes of such a defeat, though, a glorious progressive phoenix must arise.
I think that 8 years of W followed by Obama as the phoenix proved that it’s just not worth the risk. This is not a criticism of Obama. The cost of W is just too high – much higher than anyone predicted in 2000 – and the phoenix is chained by Congress.
>Obama as the phoenix proved that it’s just not worth the risk.
Have to agree with you there. We took a big chance by supporting Obama over HRC, who would have beaten McCain by a MUCH bigger margin. My passion for Obama over HRC was based on “not this time”, which I took to mean “not the clinton retreads” but he hired emanuel and summers before he was even inaugurated.
I mean, maybe Obama has been better than Hillary would have been, but not nearly as much better as I’d hoped.
How about Hillary with a progressive VP?
If Hillary were president, we would have been up to our necks in Syria and possibly Iran, too. And she might have kept us in Iraq longer, as well, because of the lack of agreement on Status of Forces.
If McCain were president….
That’s a good point – I’m so upset about domestic stuff that I usually fail to credit Obama for doing a much better job on foreign policy that Hillary probably would have … hmmmmmmmmmmm.
This is all true but I think the public deserves a lot of credit for keeping us out of Syria. Any discussion of the President’s handling of foreign policy has to have that caveat. He was planning to take us into that bloody mess and I’m not sure I’ll ever let that go. That would have been a dumb war.
What’s the story on Hickenlooper?
My wife is convinced that the New Yorker is pushing his candidacy. She says she keeps reading profiles of him like pre-2008 profiles of Obama.
There’s an enormous amount of work to be done and given the historic corruption on the Dem side, I would not place too much emphasis just on that one goal: Prez and Congressional majorities.
A big piece of work Dems need to do is voter education so that people understand how our federal government works and how it is being sabotaged. They need to understand better that just voting for Prez every 4 years is not enough to advance the causes the Prez envisions during his/her campaign. They need to know that advancing progressive policies means voting every year and at every special election.
You would be good at voter education material Booman. You’ve run some great posts in that direction.
There are still issues to work on. And not all of them are purely progressive but could have broader appeal.
There are still the broken aspects of our political system that need to be fixed (campaign finance reform, mitigating corporate powers, corporate media reform, etc.).
There are state guv chairs and legislatures to be won back and now that Obamacare has a future, we may have a nice advantage with that.
When all that fails there is community based social justice work to be done.
I don’t have time to be depressed. There is too much to do.
And there will be other candidates than Hillary coming out. At minimum, someone has their eyes perhaps more on 2020 or 2024 and will want to test the waters in 2016. It’s still a little early to capitulate to Hillary. (FWIW, I still don’t think I can vote for her.)
I’d definitely vote for her. No question. Looking down the barrel of Jeb/Cruz/Rubio, I’d vote for Max fucking Baucus.
But I do agree that it’s way too early. I admire Clinton, though she’s not who I’d pick as president, and only wish the best for her personally: but she’s not young, and she’s one medical issue away from not running. (She’s exactly my mother-in-law’s age. My mother-in-law is extremely sharp. But age matters.)
So I think there’s a non-trivial chance that all of this moaning and obsessing about Clinton’s unstoppable juggernaut–which really does look unstoppable this time, if it happens–is so many wasted words.
Clinton takes a tumble. She passes the torch to Gillibrand.
Gillibrand, with Clinton very visibly supporting her, romps to victory in the primary. Trounces the Republican in the general.
And then governs pretty much exactly as Clinton would.
The problem is, they all would govern pretty much exactly as Clinton would. With ‘always bow to the the possible’ to one side and ‘never shake the boat you spent years learning how to sail’ on the other, I’m not sure what real alternatives we have.
(shrug) “progressives” wanted to teach Obama a lesson in 2010. they sure showed him.
choices and consequences.
I’m confused.. since we’re likely facing another midterm defeat will it be because the progressives stayed home? Or is it more likely that turnout patterns and voter fatigue in a President’s sixth year favor the opposition?
While I share a lot of the same trepidation about Clinton, it’s hard to ignore the findings of this poll here in my state.
Well then — let’s give the people what they think they want. The first female POTUS will be much like the first (and only, so far), Prime Minister of the UK. The only region in the world that seems to be promoting women and social democrats to positions of power is S. America — and that’s a recent trend.
Numbers like that can easily translate to a 57% or better margin, which would sweep the House up with it.
That’s the carrot dangling out there.
It is tempting.
And this has been the state of affairs for some time, so it appears to me that the obvious counter is a two pronged strategy of
In fact this appears to be such an obvious counter that it makes my head explode to watch the left blow it on both counts. So many self identified leftists have exhausted themselves complaining about the cowardly Democrats who WON’T. EVEN. TRY. that they have no stomach for exploring realistic alternatives. And no, wasting your vote on a third party vanity candidate in a contested election is not a realistic alternative and Elizabeth Warren is not running for President: go project your fantasies onto some other Savior.