Over at The New Republic, Julia Ioffe counsels that the best way to anticipate Russia’s actions is to take the most pessimistic view possible. Apparently, that’s what she learned from covering the Moscow beat. It’s no secret that Ms. Ioffe takes a dim view of Vladimir Putin, but that doesn’t mean she’s wrong.
One of the reasons I left my correspondent’s post in Moscow was because Russia, despite all the foam on the water, is ultimately a very boring place. Unfortunately, all you really need to do to seem clairvoyant about the place is to be an utter pessimist. Will Vladimir Putin allow the ostensibly liberal Dmitry Medvedev to have a second term? Not a chance. There are protests in the streets of Moscow. Will Putin crackdown? Yup. There’s rumbling in the Crimea, will Putin take advantage and take the Crimean peninsula? You betcha. And you know why being a pessimist is the best way to predict outcomes in Russia? Because Putin and those around him are, fundamentally, terminal pessimists. They truly believe that there is an American conspiracy afoot to topple Putin, that Russian liberals are traitors corrupted by and loyal to the West, they truly believe that, should free and fair elections be held in Russia, their countrymen would elect bloodthirsty fascists, rather than democratic liberals. To a large extent, Putin really believes that he is the one man standing between Russia and the yawning void. Putin’s Kremlin is dark and scary, and, ultimately, very boring.
I share the following merely because I admire the imagery.
This is another howl you often hear rending the skies over Moscow: Western double standards. But let’s get real for a second. We’ve spoken already about the U.N., but what about the holy Russian mantra of non-interference in a nation’s internal affairs? When it comes to Syria, to take a most recent example, the fight between Assad and the rebels is something only the Syrians can sort out. Ditto every other country in the world—unless it’s in Russia’s backyard, where Russia still experiences phantom limb syndrome. The internal issues of former Soviet republics, you see, are not truly internal issues of sovereign nations.
The thing is, true amputees don’t have the option of putting their limb back together. For Ukrainians, the concern is that they are about to be reattached.
Sevastapol is hardly a phantom limb. And I would very much like to hear Victoria Nuland-Kagan’s views on what to do about Putin. The US has multiple messages and activities going on in its foreign policy establishment. In the absence of clear unambiguous bipartisan (politics stops at the water’s edge) foreign policy from the President and Congress, that creates confusion about US motives and actions.
The fact that the NSA has run outside of Congressional authorization (according to Sensenbrenner, who pushed through the legislation), other governments wonder what the US CIA is up to and how much the assurances of President Obama matter.
.
That was my immediate reaction glancing over her rant, it’s beyond the pale …
Julia Ioffe is the victim of her own wishful thinking…and that of the U.S. foreign policy establishment that can’t get beyond 1989 and the dissolution of the Soviet empire. The U.S. searches for its image in the Soviet mirror and only sees a fractured, unrecognizable self while the world transforms itself on the other side of the mirror. Russia is ascendant. Deal with it.
Or how about Putin is a tremendous asshole? This is about “looking in the mirror”. If you think Putin’s Russia is ANYTHING like the NSA maintaining a record of your phone calls, you’re delusional. Absolutely delusional.
Reporters might get sued in the US, they get killed in Russia. Political critics might get smeared in the US, they get killed or imprisoned in Russia.
The reason Putin’s Russia is “doomed” is because it’s a state that relies on the crumbling legitimacy of a tyrant whose main claim to power is that he’s not a drunken boob like Yeltsin.
We aren’t going to start defending Putin out of some reflexive distaste for McCain’s jingoism, are we?
Speaking of the NSA, Danny Casolaro.
Thanks!
As far as prisoners in the USA, we’re not doing so bad at all. Nor our Svoboda on journalism and the press, USA dropped 13 places on the global ranking.
Love that: “phantom limb syndrome”
So do I. It’s a wonderful descriptive term.
The whole article is pretty good. I also like this reminder for both Russia and the US:
“… Russia, like the U.S., projects its own mindset onto the rest of the world. So when you hear Putin and his foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and the talking heads on Russia Today crowing about American cynicism and machinations, well, keep in mind whom they’re really talking about.”
Folks, the war is over. The only thing left is the rearrancement of the populations. I imagine that some Ukrainians will want to move to the west and there certainly will be ethnic Russians who’ll want to rejoin Russia. We see that in the streets now.
I doubt that Putin has any desire for the western half of Ukraine. It’s bankrupt and I’m sure he’d rather the IMF deal with it.
In these situations fascists tend to look for scapegoats. If I were an ethnic Russian or a Jew living in Lviv or Kiev, I’d be feeling nervous.
Never fear all for the UN has called an emergency meeting on this. It will be interesting to see what if anything the UN can do about this.
Not much, unless Russia somehow sleeps through the meeting of the Security Council like in 1950.
The pro-Russia faction in Kharkov have forcibly ejected the Svoboda and Right Sector occupiers from the municipal buildings. Rumors are circulating that a thousand Svoboda and Right Sector activists are traveling toward Kharkov.
The city is 50-50 ethnically. If the locals stay calm through this, this might sort out without violence but if not, the Kharkov oblast borders Russia.
Also, the IMF is ready to shove a Greek-style austerity plan on Ukraine. Shades of Versailles 1920.
It’s all over but how many Svobodans want to be martyrs for the pure blood of the Ukrainian people, and how long until synagogues in Kiev and Lviv are burned. Otherwise, Europe won’t cut off Russia’s petroleum from themselves for petty fascists.
Now the Ukrainians can stand around and salute themselves instead of eating.
Fascists vs Putinistas?
I’m rooting for injuries…
We just need to stay the hell out of this.