DCCC chairman Steve Israel (D-NY) really, really wants Alex Sink to run again in November to represent Florida’s 13th District. Ms. Sink lost her bid to do that on Tuesday, but the margin was narrow (less than 3,500 votes) and the turnout was abysmal (46% lower than in 2012, 21% lower than in 2010). If Ed Kilgore is correct, and the result of Tuesday’s special election is best explained by this low turnout, and not by disappointment with the president or opposition to ObamaCare, then Ms. Sink would be wise to keep campaigning for the seat.
A little more than 185,000 voted in the special election, compared to 329,347 in 2012 when President Obama was on the ticket. There are a lot of untapped voters and most of them will drag themselves to the polls in November with no urging from anyone. In my opinion, Alex Sink should be heavily favored to win if she runs.
That’s a good point. Not to mention, David Jolly will be a voting member of the House Republican caucus in the meanwhile, which will give her plenty of ammunition.
Sink’s failure to get voters to the polls on Tuesday is somehow predictive of ability to do so in November?
the candidate can inspire people, but more people vote in midterms than in specials. If she had enjoyed anything close to midterm-level turnout on Tuesday she would have won.
Do you think there is any policy (not anything process-oriented, like voter contacts and registration, I’m talking purely on a policy level) that could increase the share of Democratic voters in specials–and in midterms, too, for that matter?
That is, if Sink said, “I’m for X!” is there any value of X that would substantially increase Dem-leaning voters’ likelihood of voting?
I think positions on issues have a big influence, if people actually hear about them. If a candidate has novel or unexpected positions, they get more attention and have more potential to get people off their couches. From what I’ve heard, Ms. Sink is a moderate pro-business New Dem whose only unconventionality lies in her breaking with the left on some issues. Her main attraction to the DCCC is that she has a lot of money and name recognition, so she can be heard.
A progressive who pushed some populist ideas could attract some buzz, but they’d still be broke. So, that’s how it goes, particularly in the South.
From what I’ve heard, Ms. Sink is a moderate pro-business New Dem whose only unconventionality lies in her breaking with the left on some issues.
What issues are those?
But can you think of any novel, populist ideas which would attract sufficient buzz that–even if they didn’t raise money–would draw Democrats to the voting booths?
Does such a thing exist?
I mean, not at all in the context of Sink. This just got me wondering, as a special election. And it seems to me that maybe, theoretically, such issues exist. And if they do, they strike me as potentially very important. But I don’t really hear us talking about them.
They’d have to be affirmative, I think, instead of defensive. (And Kevin Drum has recently said, people don’t actually believe all the crap Republicans say.) And with a really simple, compelling benefit to voters.
For lefties, being aggressively against the war on drugs and for prison reform, raising the minimum wage (already done and indexed in Florida), questioning the national security state, taking money from Wall Street and giving people a free higher education, etc.
And this.
Those all strike me as awesome policies, but with the exception of raising the minimum wage, I’m not sure they’re enough to motivate couch-Democrats into the voting booth in sufficient number.
I guess I’m wondering what the most nakedly populist policy is that we could offer, that makes sense.
that’s easy, free money for everyone.
A simple call to expropriate the expropriators, and to seize the commanding heights of the economy in the name of the workers should do the trick.
I don’t understand the reference.
“Seize the commanding heights” was a key phrase/policy in Lenin’s introduction of the Soviet Union’s “New Economic Policy” in 1924.
I don’t buy it. Young held the seat despite Obama taking the district in 2012. Before it was redistricted from the 10th, Young held on 2008 when Obama took the district by 4 points. He held on in 2000 when Gore won the district.
To call this a historically Republican district is to gloss over the fact that the Democratic presidential candidate has won it in three of the last four elections. Given that higher numbers for a Democrat at the top of the ticket has not converted the seat, I’m not at all convinced that higher overall turnout would deliver the district for Sink.
I don’t think Sink’s performance should be re-spun as anything but a disappointment. Here’s a former statewide candidate who, despite national support, couldn’t take an open seat in a reasonably friendly district. Maybe she’s still the best chance for November. I find that discouraging.
You make a good point. But Bill Young was an institution. You are playing that down in a big way. You shouldn’t.
The 2010 election turnout is the relevant one to look at. President Obama won’t be on the ballot this fall, so the more heavily Democratic electorate that turns out for presidential elections won’t be voting.
If, based on the 2010 numbers, Sink sees a reasonable chance at a path to victory in November, she should go for it.
the district was redrawn after the 2010 election, so apple-to-apple comparisons are hard. But, Ed calculated that there was a 21% drop-off from 2010.
Thanks. So, in 2010 approximately 267,000 ballots were cast in the general election for the old FL-13 district. This week there were about 184,000 ballots cast.
Sink lost by less than 3,500 votes, with another 8,900 votes going to a Libertarian candidate and 300 “other” write-ins.
Can Sink net an additional 3,500 votes out of the additional 83,000 or so additional voters she can expect to come to the polls in November? Will a Libertarian candidate be on the ballot again, and if not, where do those (9-10,000?) votes go?
From a distance—and based on recent experience around here with special elections v. general elections—it seems worth going for it (if she’s up for another 8 months of campaigning).
DCCC chairman Steve Israel (D-NY) really, really wants Alex Sink to run again in November to represent Florida’s 13th District.
Which means what? Think that through for a second. Israel is awful, as you well know. And being this is Florida we are talking about we also know that DWS has her hand in this. As people above noted, you need to go by 2010 turnout, not 2012. How will Sink get more votes? And how often has a person lost a special election like this yet come back to win in November? And how much did Democratic leaning groups pour into this race?
Not to open old wounds…
But losing by 3500 votes in a half century GOP district was a blurp in a cyclone. It could work next time.
And while I concede that Ben Nelson feltches more goats than Joe Lieberman, at this point (in my opinion) it would be better to have Pelosi wielding the gavel than Bohner.
Because, to put a fine point on it, negotiating with Nelson over the right flank of the first serious national health reform in fifty years was more productive than having Bohner gavel the whole thing down.
I think it was Weigel said she was a terrible candidate and that’s why she lost. He’s been following the race from what I understand.
Yeah, Weigel even called her a corporate Democrat. Which I found kind of interesting.
I hope she loses. I’m not interested in any more anti-SS Democrats.
First Obama wants chained-CPI. Then I read this story at kos about the Senate Dems trading ten year cuts in Federal pension for a mere five month extension of unemployment benefits, as if loyal employees who worked twenty, thirty, or forty years are responsible for unemployment.
More and more I feel like punishing ALL the Dems by voting straight Republican in November. They can fuck me, but I can fuck them back!
Then I read this story at kos about the Senate Dems trading ten year cuts in Federal pension for a mere five month extension of unemployment benefits, as if loyal employees who worked twenty, thirty, or forty years are responsible for unemployment.
Ia there a guarantee this gets through The House?
I think I’ve spotted the problem.
Alex Sink lost this race exactly the way she lost her bid for Gov. She blew off all the actual Democratic voters, and spent her campaign kissing wingnut ass. She doesn’t support the President, she doesn’t support the Party, and she’s now lost to two people who shouldn’t be put in charge of a hot dog stand. No wonder Steve Israel likes her…I’m sure Sink is a nice lady, but she really needs to go away now.