After reading about Josh Marshall’s journey into the Truther’s Jungle, I don’t think it’s overly optimistic to see ObamaCare as analogous to “skewed” polls and the collective right as analogous to Karl Rove on Election Night in November 2012. What seems to be going on is something more than just epistemic closure. An entire political party (excepting their few actual health care experts) is convinced that they’re winning a political argument based on facts that are completely absent.
Perhaps they can still point to polls that say that the law is unpopular, and they have some talking points about the bungled roll-out and canceled plans that people were promised they could keep. But, other than that thin gruel, the totality of everything else they think about the Affordable Care Act is just as delusional as Dick Morris’s polling analysis.
What’s interesting is that the Republicans’ are so dependent on ObamaCare being unpopular that they have to try to convince people it is failing even though it certainly is not. It’s not enough to point at polls about the law because those polls will change over time. They have to try to keep the polls low any way they can. One way to do that is to keep the myth alive among their base. Another way is to misinform as many people outside their circle as possible. Finally, they can work the refs in the media to the best of their ability, but that isn’t going to work anymore for media that aren’t formally or informally working for the Republican Party.
Meanwhile, Senator Mark Begich of Alaska is leading the way, showing how red state Democrats can play offense on ObamaCare:
With Medicaid sign-ups continuing through to Election Day, I am excited to go to war with the GOP over health care. Every day that goes by, more people are covered and we gain a bigger advantage.
How long has the GOP been the party of fiscal probity? How long since they’ve presided over a surplus?
Things don’t have to be true to matter.
They’ve been running on that ‘thin gruel’ forever. And the point of view that it espouses has enough support to produce Congressional majorities.
Why would Obamacare be any different? The fiscal-probity myth is fifty years old…and going strong.
Yes, a myth. The proverbial people can’t distinguish between myth and reality. We are in very deep trouble, I think. Maybe I’m just an aberrant pessimist.
The wisdom of the people, and a quarter, will get you a cup of coffee.
In this case, not “the people” but the Tea Party people.
Their problem is, they are trapped in a rhetorical loop that they reinforce by their own choice of mass media.
A rhetorical message, to be effective, doesn’t have to be true. It has to be based on the common opinion of the audience. Now, starting from some element of common opinion of that particular audience, you COULD get to something resembling truth. ACA, for example, at least in some states (e.g. KY, WVA, ARK), now provides a handle for this.
But it doesn’t need to be true at all, as long as it is based on the common opinion. Reinforcing the common opinion is what they want, that’s what the GOP propagandists want to give them, and that’s what they get. it’s like an impermeable bubble.
This is nothing new. In the 50s and 60s, these same people were terrified of communism, when there was virtually no communism here. Since then the country has gradually gone down the tubes, and they still haven’t got a clue as to why. Hint: it wasn’t the communists. Nor the illegal immigrants. Nor terrorism neither.
Most of what most people know simply isn’t so.
This is by no means restricted to adherents of the Tea Party and their fellow travelers. You saw this among progressives during the debate over the ACA.
The creation of the shibboleth formerly known as the public option resulted from this.
Agreed, it’s not just restricted to the TP. We need to see the mote in our own eye. I just meant in relation to the OP under discussion.
That’s not difficult to do: 15% of Americans subscribe to the theory of evolution. 46% are scientifically illiterate strict “creationists.” Another 32% accept some role for evolution, but it was orchestrated and conducted by God.
It’s as if “Inherit the Wind” and “Elmer Gantry” has never been written and seen or read. More money to be made selling ignorance and childish magical thinking than the stunning beauty and complexity of reality.
One thing that is lost on a lot of nonbelievers is that our views on reality and where we came from are actually much more complex than that of religion.
It’s a fuckton easier to say, “An invisible man made all of this” than it is to even begin to explain where the atoms in our bodies originated, and how they came to be in this little corner of the universe to make us up.
The complexity itself is what makes observable reality much more beautiful and amazing than a simple religious answer to it all. That we’re all made up of atoms that were created by the supernova of the earliest star(s) is breathtaking, at least for me. That we’re all an integral piece of the universe and not separate from it, is beautiful to me. We’re all one, we’re all the universe consciously observing itself in little pieces. We’re all connected.
If you’re able to convert observable reality into a narrative that your audience can understand, often they’ll listen to it whereas if you were to try to lecture on it as a powerpoint slide, they would roll their eyes and stop listening.
I’m a northerner, carpetbagging in Dixie, and I’ve personally converted a “conservative, Republican-leaning” Southern Baptist Christian into seeing just how much Republicans are crazy, pieces of shit who doesn’t care about regular people. Y’all are welcome.
The key, and I’ve written about it before, is knowing your audience and tailoring a narrative to how the person thinks about things.
So, some of these people can be found and extracted from the jungle, but you have to know how to explain that they’re lost to begin with, if you want them to let you lead them out.
That was probably 3/4 off topic but the complexity of reality statement is part and parcel of my “belief” system.
The GOP’s problem is that there are now over 10 million Americans who have benefited from the ACA. These people have their own personal experience with the Law; they can and will provide personal testimony to the actual implementation of the law, which will refute IN EVERY WAY the wild horror stories which have become crucial to the conservative movement’s self-esteem.
That won’t prevent the stooges of their movement from keeping their delusions to the bitter end. I took note of this part from Marshall: “Snark in itself isn’t surprising. What is notable is the total shock that there’s not total unanimity that the program is failing.”
Josh misinterprets what is going on here. ALL True Conservatives KNOW the ACA is a horrible failure and an indictment of Obama/Reid/Pelosi/the Democrat Party/liberalism/socialism/communism/Marxism/totalitarianism/hippies/etc. Since the mainstream media is full of socialists, True Conservatives actually take heart by the unwillingness of the corrupt MSM to declare Obummercare The Worst Thing EVER!!!1!!!#!
Similarly, those like Josh that True Conservatives attack on Twitter, the blogosphere, hate talk radio, Letters to the Editor, etc. are considered by the True Conservatives to be not only wrong, but completely ILLEGITIMATE. Even the conservatively-oriented economists who are conceding that the ACA is not a failure must be attacked by the fever-dreaming TC’s with a non-personing label like “crony capitalist”, “sell-out”, “egghead”, “elitist”, etc.
For these Dittoheads, Conservatism can never fail; it can only be failed. Government can never succeed, unless it is properly used to bully/maim/kill troublesome non-persons in foreign countries with resources we want, and used in all ways necessary to maintain the oligarchic status quo.
One last thing that True Conservatives consider a proper use of government: causing suffering for Americans they disapprove of (non-patriarchal women, brown people, etc.).
You have just clearly brought out why these “True Conservatives” as you call them are enemies to all others that live in the USA. There is a clear divide coming and before to long all of the shall we say “Non-conservatives” Are going to have to decide. Do you keep being oppressed by these people or do you stand up and say “ENOUGH”. That one decision will define America for the next 200 years or so. History does repeat itself.
The Party that thinks with their cement feet can’t cobble together a health plan replacement that would grab onto individual items that poll well because those items are already in the ACA. It leaves them with nothing to campaign on except the mythical value of cement feet.
The cross purposes of the simultaneous ideology of ‘personal liberty’ together with ‘personal responsibility’ only works until you walk out the door into the real world. But for these people, believing the lies, then having the lies torn down seems much like finding out that your father was a con man and your mother a drunk. So now we’re hearing that dad was a con man but he was forgiven on Sundays and mom only drank socially. And oh yeah, doesn’t mean they gave me bad genes!
Reality sure has taken a long time getting here.
“convinced that they’re winning a political argument based on facts that are completely absent.”
Or in other words, “De Nile ain’t just a river in Egypt.”
The Karl Rove meltdown on Election night 2012 is a a classic.
As for them “knowing” that Obamacare is a disaster, unlike Squishy Democrats, I would pound the shyt outta Obamacare, and run on it proudly.
“unlike Squishy Democrats, I would pound the shyt outta Obamacare, and run on it proudly.” Absolutely. It is a winner if they don’t flinch away from it.
Meltdown, or no meltdown, the Senate’s about to change hands, and the GOP House majority is under no threat.
If there are enough voters who are voting on the basis of fraudulent claims, appeals to fear, and naked greed, to win an election, they still seat the winners.
What’s this Schleprock routine you’re regurgitating about the Senate? Recall that the conventional wisdom said the Dems were going to lose the Senate in 2012, and were going to lose a bunch more Senate races in 2010.
The politics of the ACA are going to be much different in the fall, as long as the red state Dem incumbents highlight the actual benefits to actual people to combat “fraudulent claims”, and if they run against the immoral Republican Legislators and Governors who refused to allow more than 5 million Americans gain health insurance through Medicaid expansions.
Why is Angus King making noises about caucusing with the other team?
Can he count, or is he just making Schleprock noises?
King’s noisemaking is the hedging of his bet. He’s not predicting the negative outcome (from our POV), which is what it read like you were doing. I can count, too; I know the Senate’s not safe, but it’s far from gone.
If Obamacare can be a winner, it will be in KY. More uninsured have gained insurance in that state than any other proportionately. So, will it make a bit of difference? It really depends on what Grimes makes of it. If she rams it home on McConnell, she might pull the upset. I don’t believe any of those moronic polls at this time – come election time, chickens come home to roost. If Grimes wins, Obamacare will NEVER be repealed, because we will keep the Senate. If Grimes loses, the issue is still up in the air – most likely we lose the Senate.
Kentucky is the crux of the conflict.
Booman – I think you nailed it.
Dataguy – I think you are right too. What are Grimes chances?
For much more local info check out this page;
http://pageonekentucky.com/
Warning, they are much tougher on Allison Grimes than the national press, for several reasons.
They know the games both state parties play, and why.
They know who pulls many of the strings of the politicos in the state.
They have watched Yertle the Turtle for years and do not underestimate him one bit.
Definitely worth the read if you want more info than the national MSM is willing to do the leg (or keystroke) work for.