I don’t agree with Jonathan Bernstein that it doesn’t matter whether the Republicans choose to hold their 2016 convention in Dallas or Cleveland, and that the locations of conventions have no potential impact on political outcomes. The most disastrous modern convention was held in Houston, Texas in 1992. Pat Buchanan’s infamous Culture War speech, delivered to a bunch of front-row whooping Stetson hats, was terrifying to this Jersey Boy. I ran away from that scene and never once again remotely considered supporting a Republican, even for dog catcher. If the conventions are mainly infomercials, then it matters what you’re selling and how you to try to sell it. Would Buchanan’s speech have been as threatening if he’d delivered it in Boston in front of the Massachusetts delegates? The answer is, “Hell no.”
But it isn’t just the overarching message the location sends. It’s the Electoral College, too. In any state that could potentially go either way, every single little thing matters. The Democrats used their conventions in Colorado and North Carolina to organize those states and improve their ground games. In the end, the Democrats carried Colorado narrowly in 2008 and lost North Carolina narrowly in 2012. But, in both cases, the Democrats improved their chances by holding the conventions in contestable states.
The only reason for the Republicans to prefer Dallas to Cleveland is because they’ll have bester access to big money donors in Dallas. Every other factor I can think of argues in favor of holding their convention in Cleveland. Ohio is a state that the GOP won as recently as 2004. They must win it to have any realistic chance of taking the presidency. It borders other states like Indiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that the Republicans need to win or put in play.
And just as a northern party has often chosen a southern candidate or running mate to compensate for regional weakness, the GOP needs to compensate for their regional isolation in the South. They don’t need candidates with a southern drawl, and they don’t need to be holding their convention in the Deep South.
The choice of convention site is not likely to be decisive, but it could be. In fact, the Republicans can probably only win the Electoral College, if at all, with the slightest of margins. George W. Bush would have lost in 2000 if he hadn’t been awarded Florida, and in 2004 if he hadn’t won Ohio. They can’t afford to give away any potentially winnable states.
Again, the advantage of holding a convention in a particular state is your heightened ability to organize in that state. But you also get saturation coverage for your message on the local level. Do your convention right, and you’ll get a bump that hard work can make stick.
If I were paid to give the Democrats (or Republicans) advice on where to put their next political convention, I’d always tell them to put it either in the state they just lost by the narrowest margin or the state that they just won by the narrowest margin. On a percentage basis, that would be North Carolina or Florida. After those come Georgia and Ohio.
Have we heard about the Democratic convention? It might have mattered at one time to people re: the GOP convention. It doesn’t any more. Why? Because they’re troglodytes.
I’d advise the R’s to do theirs in VA, NOVA at that. Come out strong for defense spending in an area that is based off upper income, socially liberal, well educated, defense contractors. Shit I could be persuaded. I vote on social issues, but if my wallet is threatened I’d be willing to toss all of them to the window, you gotta pay the bills first.
You keep saying that, but never provide data that this is true. Yes, the people living here aren’t like me; they’re not socialists or Marxists.
But they’re not going to vote Republican, ever. I’d call NOVA quintessential Obama-voter territory; moderately liberal which favors taxing the rich to pay for modest social programs, but let’s not get carried away and bump it up to 90%.
IOW, you’ll never find a Republican who can win here. Not in their current form, and not for the foreseeable future.
I’d note that Obama pretty much is a moderate Republican, so is Hillary.
I’m not saying it’s a 100% win strategy, it’s not. What I am saying is that if the Democrats are dumb enough to say nominate an Elizabeth Warren, and the Republicans managed to nominate a moderate it’s a good strategy.
But here’s the thing, I don’t think the Democratic party is idiotic enough to nominate a Warren or Sanders, will NEVER fucking happen. I’m not sure the Republicans will nominate a moderate, or that their moderate won’t be dragged to the right (see Romney). So for the most part I don’t think it matters where the nominations are held.
Warren could easily win here. So could Sanders.
Democrats aren’t going to nominate them, however, but neither are Republicans going to nominate a Republican who could hold a candle to them. In the event that it was a “moderate” of the Lincoln Chafee variety, Warren would win.
It’s not 1972 anymore. And considering you like to talk about young professionals who bring in 6 figures — of which I am — we’re significantly more liberal than you’d like to believe.
That’s the fun with philosophical wanking like this: it’s totally pointless and would never happen. So why keep doing it?
The entire NOVA region? I doubt that. Arlington County possibly, Fairfax and Loudon I think not. Arlington is vastly more urban than the other areas. But Fairfax is where the real electoral heft is.
I fall into the young (early 30’s) clearing six figures as well. Keep in mind how fucking antagonistic this area is about our money going to the less well off areas in VA. That economic redistribution is already a sore spot.
I mean shit maybe we should get a drink and hash it out in person.
I concede Loudon. I do not concede Arlington or Fairfax.
The tax rate is fairly flat. I’ve paid the same (relative) rate now that I paid when I made half of what I presently make. Silly resentment if there even is any.
The money goes to Medicaid, and education; the latter of which is financed (mostly) with property taxes anyway. The other bulk is to law enforcement. Not too much money spread around, especially considering VA ranks pretty low in the funding gap between impoverished districts and those well to do.
See, we are getting somewhere! We both pretty much agree on Arlington and Loudon, we’re torn over Fairfax which is where the real votes are any ways. I guess we could divvy it up by area though? Vienna and say McClean aren’t the same.
For the spending I more meant transit issues and some business ones. Which is also a DC/MD/VA feud as well.
Keep in mind some of this same stuff applies to a sate Booman suggested as well, NC. The Democrats greatest strength is really that their opponents have an issue with reality and basic science. That doesn’t work well in educated and well off communities even if Republican economics lines up with their income and social class. Combined with Democratic leadership moving to the position of the old Republicans it’s an electoral disaster in areas that were once Republican strongholds. Such as parts of NE or in the case of VA… Fairfax county.
The Democrats could move too far left on some issues, and the Republicans could moderate. I don’t think it’s probable, but it is possible. As such, I think the greatest advantage of holding a convention in any area is building up your ground game there and appealing to a very select local fear of the other party. And that makes big defense NOVA a better target than say UNC EducationGlobal Health NC.
I could be wrong though.
The thing is, even though most tea party Republicans love them some military spending, how are you going to explain to the voters “I’ll increase the military budget, but I voted to shut down the government!”
And even if a ‘moderate’ were to break away, the entire brand is tainted: vote Republican, you get a government shutdown. Though when I rode the VRE there never was a shortage of DoD employees who loved them some Fountainhead.
I think the Democrats could move far to the left, more in line with traditional labor parties, and still win VA statewide. This wouldn’t even be a shift to the far left, mind you, just relatively moving far left. I think it would be close (if we’re talking 2016 that is), but it would happen. Keep in mind that the state keeps growing less and less white. Despite being an incumbent in a terrible economy, Obama barely did worse in Loudon in 2012 than he did in 2008. Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria were largely unchanged. The only county that switched was Montgomery (if memory serves).
I’ll give you a minor move to the left. But if you got a serious Warren/Sanders style “slash the DOD, slash intelligence, remove the FICA cap” I’d say Fairfax and Loudon surely revolt and possibly Arlington as well.
The government shut down is something they do need to stop doing though. Lay off NOVA is not a good political strategy for Virginia.
And I work in IP law. Still waiting on guidance for that latest Supreme Court decision. The one where they kicked the can down the road and only made it more confusing.
I more meant where what physical area, but that’s an interesting field.
Oh, King Street.
Besides, I don’t need thousands of Bible-thumpers and Ayn Randroids flooding the city of Alexandria and Arlington during the workweek. I won’t have one decent happy hour.
On this we agree!
However I do my drinking in DC. Farragut/K Street for work, Dupont and U street for fun.
Well I don’t work in DC, but occasionally I head up there for drinks if someone sets one up. Trying to decide if I’ll head up for the World Cup tomorrow. Probably not. Bar right across the street from work is so much more convenient.
Where you work? I live in Rosslyn.
IOW – no “true blue” or “real red” states need apply? That eliminates just about all the big cities.
Doubt that it makes a great deal of difference (Chicago 1968 excepted). With such a small data-set, it’s not possible to construct any rules to follow. However, staying away from the City/State of the nominee might be a good idea considering the RNC Houston 1992 and DNC Boston 2004.
So, following our half-baked “rules” what does that leave for the two parties to choose from in 2016?
For the RNC that eliminates Dallas b/c it’s “real red” and Cruz could be the nominee. Not a good idea if Jeb! is the nominee either. Jeb! also eliminates Florida. Boston too blue plus Romney.
Cleveland will be a dud if Kasich gets the nod. (And isn’t Portman still on everybody short-list for VP? Kansas City was a bit close to Kansas and that didn’t work out well for Ford/Dole.) Milwaukee would be perfect if not for Scott Walker who could either be the nominee or in jail by then. Same for Atlantic City. Las Vegas only if Adelson picks up the tab for rooms and meals for all the delegates.
What does that leave for the RNC?
The DNC can nix NYC and Boston. Chicago as well b/c then it risks putting the spotlight on Obama and not the nominee. Plus, not good to feature Emmanuel. The west coast hasn’t been a winner or either party in a very long time — could be a function of the time zone. Pittsburgh would be a neutral enough place.
Based on my analysis, combined with a desire not to repeat locations, the Dems should have their convention in either Atlanta or one of the big three cities in Ohio. The Republicans should opt for Denver, Charlotte, Atlanta, or one of the big three cities in Ohio. The preference for deemphasizing their southernness argues against Charlotte and Atlanta, although neither are as bad as Dallas, of all places.
Why Denver? I could see that if their nominee was Rand Paul, but if it was say Cruze I’d think it was stupid.
Because they need to register every potential Republican in Colorado desperately if they have any hope of winning the presidency.
Georgia way too red. The problem with Ohio is that Kasich or Portman could be GOP contenders. And while dismissed here, there, and everywhere, Sherrod Brown is the best Democrat on the stump, and if New Deal economic policies gain favor in the next year, Brown’s stature will increase.
Too soon for the GOP to go to Denver or Charlotte. Agree that Atlanta is too southern. I’m thinking St. Louis. MO remains a “swing state” in the minds of the general public b/c reality takes decades to be internalized. So, the optics would be good.