Travis Childers, who served as a Democrat in Congress from May 13, 2008 to January 3, 2011, was never my kind of Democrat, but I am okay with that. I would not expect great things from him if he were to win a six-year term in the U.S. Senate representing the state of Mississippi. On most contentious issues, I’d expect him to vote with the Republicans in a (probably) vain effort to save his hide in his bid for reelection.
What interests me about this race is the ethics. It’s pretty clear that the Republican Party is badly split between supporters of incumbent Thad Cochran, who is a decent fellow, and his challenger state Sen. Chris McDaniel, who runs in neo-confederate circles and has the support of an extreme Tea Party faction. This wedge pre-exists anything Childers might do to exploit it. If Childers can convince a significant percentage of McDaniel supporters to vote for him, he can actually win this seat, but it is not clear how he can go about doing that without leveraging the racism that is at the core of opposition to Cochran.
Cochran was expected to lose his run-off with McDaniel but exceeded expectations by convincing a not inconsiderable number of black voters to back him. The Tea Party faction is claiming that a lot of these black voters violated the law by voting in the Republican run-off after voting in the Democratic primary. That issue can be settled in court, but regardless of legal merits, Cochran’s open solicitation of black votes is seen as dirty pool by McDaniel’s supporters who think that a Republican primary should be decided by exclusively Republican voters regardless of what the law specifies.
Travis Childers has the option of exacerbating this racial tension for his own political advantage, but this would be the wrong thing to do. Yet, if he doesn’t do it, he will almost certainly lose. In fact, even if he does do it, he will probably lose.
Democrats in Washington are watching the feud cautiously, not yet convinced it will put even Mississippi in play. The Democratic nominee, Mr. Childers, has raised little money and was always seen as a good candidate against Mr. McDaniel but as a marginal one against Mr. Cochran.
Conservative activists are not so sure. Dwayne Hall, vice president of the Miller County Patriots, a Tea Party group in Texarkana, Ark., says he has set up a Google alert for the McDaniel-Cochran fight and emails his network of fellow activists all the news from Mississippi.
“I’m no longer a member of the Republican Party, and I’d expect a lot of my fellow patriots to resign, too,” he said, adding: “I’m perfectly willing to do a protest vote in November if that’s my best option. I’m keeping that option open.”
So, how can Childers convince people like Dwayne Hall to advocate on his behalf without dirtying himself with the racial politics of it all? Childers needs to nurture that “protest vote,” but he doesn’t want to shame himself in the process. So far, he’s walking the tightrope.
The turmoil has given Mr. Cochran’s Democratic challenger, former Representative Travis Childers, an opening to exploit the divide in what is otherwise seen as a race in which he trails badly. “Senator Cochran does not have the confidence of his state, let alone his own party,” Mr. Childers said.
It won’t be easy to maintain that kind of balance with so much at stake. I hope Childers will be able to look back at his campaign and be proud of how he ran it regardless of the outcome.
Howie Klein thinks that Childers would just change parties if he won. He might, but probably not if Hillary is president.
Are you saying that if Childers wins, he’ll switch parties unless Hillary is elected POTUS? Who knew she was that popular in MS? Odd that she lost the 2008 MS primary to Obama by a significant amount.
What a political and moral challenge. I guess that the decision will be made on whether or not the candidate can stand to look at himself in the mirror when all is said and done. Kind of interesting to see where both parties stand on ethical behavior.
Well one party candidate any way.
Childers simply needs to find an issue or two that Democrats and Tea Partiers can agree on that Cochran cannot then hammer those issues in the general election campaign. Changing Mississippi’s primary system could be one such issue. For example, Mississippi could adopt instant runoff voting (IRV). Childers could also come out in favor of free universal voter IDs that include party affiliations, and voters would be able to change their party on their ID cards as often as once every 12 months free of charge and no later than 30 days before any primary they want to participate in. Childers could say he will support federal funding for free universal voter IDs for states that want to participate. Cochran’s votes (plural) in favor of the PATRIOT Act and other dubious civil liberties-related legislation could be another wedge issue.
Childers could also hire a non-controversial McDaniel campaign leader or two if any such person exists, though he’d also simultaneously appoint a respected civil rights leader to his campaign team. The general messaging should be that “rich, corrupt Washington outsiders” shouldn’t be allowed to get away with meddling in the selection of Mississippi’s senator.
There are ways to thread this needle or at least try.
Elections are not won, they are lost. Childers does not need McDaniel suppoters to vote for him. He needs them to sit home. There ought to be many ways to accomplish that — even “ethical” ones, as if there could be ethical politics.
85,000 voted in the 2014 Democratic primary. In 2008 Obama received 265,500 votes and Clinton 159,200 votes in the primary election. Even if all the votes for Clinton were Republican crossovers, that still left a pool of 180,000 Democratic voters legally able to vote for Cochran or McDaniel in the run-off. Whether any did or not, or were exclusively African Americans and not MS white Democrats, or did so and favored Cochran over McDaniel (with the expectation that Childers would have a chance against McDaniel) cannot be known. Thus, McDaniel’s lawsuit is nothing but sour grapes.
And what were his three supporters doing in the county courthouse after closing on the night of the primary?
Childers has nothing to gain by taking the low road. McDaniel’s voters will do one of three things, sit out the general election, vote for Childers to stick a poke in the eye of Cochran, or vote for Cochran. At the end of the day, rabid rightwingers generally vote GOP and are beyond any words of persuasion by a Democratic candidate.
Let McDaniel soil himself well enough this time that he won’t have a second act even though is is relatively young.
I think Childers should just run on GOTV. Let the GOP be the GOP, and let the chips fall where they may.
The best time to throw a rock at a hornet’s nest is when the hornets are all busy attacking each other.