The last four presidential elections in Florida have been very close. The largest victory was George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection, when he managed to win Florida 52%-47%. Obama won 50%-49% and 51%-48%, and 2000 was basically a tie that was broken by the conservative Supreme Court.
So, it’s telling that Hillary Clinton currently has a double-digit lead on every Republican not named Jeb Bush.
The Democratic side is another story with Clinton consistently leading the way over would-be Democratic rivals and beating Republicans.
Except for [Jeb] Bush, whom she leads by 7 points, 49-42, she beats other Republicans by double digits. Her lead over [Senator Marco] Rubio is 53-39.
The thing about Florida is that its totals in the past four elections have closely mirrored the national popular vote.
2000: Florida Vote 49%-49%, National Vote 48%-48%
2004: Florida Vote 52%-47%, National Vote 51%-48%
2008: Florida Vote 51%-48%, National Vote 53%-46%
2012: Florida Vote 50%-49%, National Vote 51%-47%
I know people will make the point that Clinton’s favorables will come down and all that…blah…blah…blah…but this post isn’t trying to predict the future. It’s just making the point that if Clinton, or any other Democrat, actually wins Florida by anything like 14 points, then there is a good chance that they will win the popular vote by a similar margin.
Dukakis also lead Bush by 17% at one point.
Or more pertinently, Bush’s numbers were temporarily depressed. Dukakis’s numbers never really rose above 55%, which of course was reasonable and even promising in retrospect during the 80s. However, Dukakis had very little gain from his peak and only steadily decreased downwards.
If Hillary was at 60% versus 45-46% that would be more convincing. 49-42 or 53-49, especially this far out, convinces me more that we might have a potential Gore or Dukakis on our hands unless someone can convince me otherwise.
Polling at 53% against a home state senator who is at 39% is a dominating number.
If she were to hold her supporters and win half the undecideds she’d be at 57%, which if it happened nationally would be one point behind Reagan’s 1984 romp.
These are not weak numbers at all in any sense.
She’s weaker against Jeb, but still beating him handily in his home state where he is quite popular. If the GOP nominates a relatively moderate candidate like Jeb, I would expect the nominee to do much better, but is that likely this time around?
Jeb is the worst that can happen to us. Cruz is the best for us, assuming Mourdock not available.
1988 was a different kettle of fish, when many people might not even be familiar with the presidential candidates until the conventions. That is not the case for 2016, nor will it ever be the case again.
Boo, if they end up nominating (yet another) Bush, I do not know if I can stand it. My stomach is turning at the thought. I’m surprised at the positive #’s though.
You don’t have to stand it. You just have to beat it.
Worse in the legacy department:
A Bush AND a Clinton.
I’ll see Mr Lou Harris this week and get his opinion on this poll.
How does this compare to a generic Democrat vs. Jeb or any other specific Democrat vs. Jeb?
As long as we’re reading polls 2+ years out about hypothetical candidates, Clinton is losing to Darth Vader by a wide margin.
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