The Hill has just been unrelenting in its predictions of doom for the Democrats in this election cycle, to the point where they are now reporting that self-proclaimed “Clinton Democrats” like Mark Pryor and Alison Lundergan Grimes are “falling flat” in their efforts to get elected.
Maybe the Clinton Democrats (whether self-proclaimed or not) will fall flat on November 4th, but it does seem a bit premature to make that characterization. The polls have not been encouraging for the Democrats over the last few weeks, but they show dead heats in southern states like Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Georgia, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Considering that all of those states except Florida voted for Mitt Romney, and considering that this is a midterm election cycle that favors the Republicans, and considering that this is the sixth year of an incumbent president’s term, and considering that the president’s approval numbers are weak, the proper conclusion should be that the Republicans are struggling somewhat inexplicably to put away campaigns in their own strongholds.
But the spin we get is that it is the Democrats that are struggling.
My answer to that is, “We’ll see, won’t we?”
People canvassing are not people who generally read The Hill. If Clinton Democrats (whoever they are) are poormouthing or sandbagging this election it is because the forces who are turning out the vote represent a change from the establishment that has dominated Clinton Democratic states for the past generation. And that establishment is the very one that through corruption and failure to stand up for principles has caused the collapse of potential collapse of the Democratic Party in states where the Party once was dominant. I’m thinking of the history from Zell Miller on in Georgia, the post-Richard Riley era in South Carolina, and the Democratic governors after Jim Hunt’s second two terms in North Carolina. Not to mention what Clinton left behind in Arkansas.
That said, what I see is The Hill joining the rest of the Wall Street media in putting their finger on the scales of the election.
In two weeks we will indeed see. And given 2010, it will affect the lame duck session, given how all parties have kicked the appropriations can into the lame duck session.
We will indeed see. I’ll post pix from Alison’s victory party.
But their headlines are more exciting. Several Close Races just doesn’t have the same ring.
A bazillion races with polling margins like 52-48 and the media has just assumed they ALL go with the current leading candidate. The odds are not favorable, but the Democrats could win ALL of those close races. Just because the probability says it isn’t likely, doesn’t mean that it couldn’t happen. Given the closeness of those races, the likelihood of weird outcomes increases. The media, despite the Republican claims that it leans liberal, is anything but, as one can see from the folks interviewed on the Sunday morning talk shows – conservative trolls all.
Chicago Folks….Suburban Cook County…..Illinois Folks…
EARLY VOTING BEGINS TODAY!!
Now, if you missed the deadline for registering to vote, you can go GRACE PERIOD VOTING- which mean you register to vote and vote at the same time. Grace Period is now possible THRU ELECTION DAY!
Here are the Hours for Voting from now until Election Day:
City of Chicago Folks, here’s your information:
ALL 51 City of Chicago Early Voting Sites are now open for Grace Period Voting.
LIST OF ALL 51 CITY OF CHICAGO EARLY VOTING SITES
Suburban Cook County, here’s your information:
ALL Suburban Cook County Early Voting Sites are now open for Grace Period Voting.
LIST OF ALL SUBURBAN COOK COUNTY EARLY VOTING SITES
Now, remember, when you go to Early Vote or Grace Period Voter,you will need ID. Grace Period voters need two pieces of ID. Here is the list of acceptable ID.
Neither needs to be a photo ID, but one must include your current address. Acceptable forms of ID include:
Illinois driver’s license
Illinois state ID
Employee or student ID
Credit card
Social security card
Birth certificate
Utility bill in applicant’s name
Mail postmarked to the applicant
Valid U.S. passport
Public aid ID card
Lease or rental contract
Here is the WILL COUNTY information.
Here is the DUPAGE COUNTY information.
If you have kids or family that might need Mail (Absentee) Ballots, and the person has an Illinois Drivers License/State ID, you can order a mail ballot ONLINE.
COOK COUNTY
DUPAGE COUNTY
WILL COUNTY
……………………………………..
The big election in Illinois is for Governor. You don’t have to like Governor Pat Quinn, but just remember this, almost 700 thousand in Illinois have been helped because of the full implementation of Obamacare in this state. Of that, over 460,000 were helped because of the Medicaid Expansion. Rauner has already said that he would NOT have done that..because THAT is who he is. So, think on THAT. If Rauner had been Governor, nearly a HALF MILLION PEOPLE in this state – the WORKING POOR – would be without access to BASIC healthcare. Rauner also doesn’t believe in the minimum wage. Just thought you should know.
Well I have six of those and the Driver’s License has the photo and the address. I don’t work on Tuesday’s so tomorrow is the ticket.
I’m definitely down for Tammy Duckworth, Sheila Simon, Lisa Madigan, and Toni Preckwinkle if she’s on this ballot, as well as my Dem State Senator who is a straight shooter (the only white male on this list, WOW!). It’s a big NO to Durbin, but also to Oberweis, so that cancels out.
I’m really pissed at Quinn for trying to cheat the state workers and the teachers. That race is another no vote, unless you personally, rikyrah, assure me that it’s really close and ask me for my vote. Ask me, not plead , not demand (see my soon to be published Diary “FU Brad Schneider”), just ask me nicely and I’ll do it for you because you have integrity and a good heart. As for him and Rahm Emanuel, I wouldn’t voluntarily give them the sweat off my private parts.
For me Pat Quinn will always be the guy from C.U.B. Plus, I don’t know how you discuss Quinn and NOT discuss Mike Madigan, who blocked Quinn at every step. Rainer is nothing but a teabagger that wants to bring ALEC schemes to Illinois.
Please vote for QUINN.
Thank you.
Because you asked me to, yes.
Madigan is the main problem for sure. But it is impossible to vote him out.
Although I have often challenged you for being too optimistic, I think you are right about this one. The Republicans SHOULD be winning all of the senate races in the south. The fact that they are struggling to put them away, and in fact are behind (as of today) in GA and NC, suggests to me that they are somewhat underperforming expectations.
This Hill thing is a tad more explicit in declaring certain defeat for the hapless Dems, but as Tarheel notes, this surely seems to be the standard end game message of all the corporate media, the little I been able to watch and endure.
Who knows what will happen as we watch this latest version of the Ground Game vs the Poisoning of the Well. It also seems that the Citizens United plutocrats usually save plenty of cash for the media well poisoning in the final week, so get ready for the Grand Finale of the fireworks on teevee.
What’s so curious is the time-tested “rules” of our elections: the sixth year of an incumbent prez dooms his party, midterms favor Repubs, prez “unpopularity” determines votes for congressional seats. One has to say these rules don’t make a whole lot of sense. You are weary of a (twice elected) prez, so you vote against his party in his sixth year as a general rule? This is just spite and spleen. The prez is “unpopular” so you vote for his (even more) unpopular political opponents? Irrational. You hate gridlock so you strengthen the party opposing the prez? That can’t miss. You supported the (Dem) prez, but don’t bother to vote in Midterms? Jeebus.
Apparently the actual problems facing the nation at a given time and the two parties’ proposals for solving them are irrelevant to the voting “tendencies” of our electorate. And of course the two parties are seen as equally legitimate whatever they may do or advocate so why not give one or the other greater power no matter what the particular situation or record.
What is the matter with this country? (rhetorical)
Not even historically accurate. Truman, Clinton, and Obama crashed big time in the second year of their Presidencies and they came out of their sixth year midterms close to where they had been after the prior Presidential re-election. The ’58, ’74, ’86, 2006 midterms were terrible for the GOP. ’66 wasn’t a good year for Democrats, but it only cut their commanding majorities in the House and Senate and didn’t flip control of either body. The only post-WWII DEM Presidents that did okay in their first mid-terms were JFK and Carter.
David Jarman on Daily Kos makes the important point that there well could be a lot of races decided in runoffs. It is political malpractice for GOTV campaigns not to be educating voters now to the possibility of runoff elections and scheduling volunteers to canvass voters in the period between the general election and the runoff election to ensure that turnout in the runoff is as high as in the general election.
Because…Americans as a culture are loosey-goosey about commitments.
It is political malpractice for GOTV campaigns not to be educating voters now to the possibility of runoff elections and scheduling volunteers to canvass voters in the period between the general election and the runoff election to ensure that turnout in the runoff is as high as in the general election.
That goes especially for Georgia. Since their rules, as I understand it, are that there is a runoff if the winner doesn’t get 50%. And there is a very real possibility of that happening. I hope Nunn’s people are at least that smart. Do any other competitive this time have that rule?
This is the same game plan as 2010. Part of the suppression regime is to paint the inevitable outcome. In that election it worked and we have the repug house and state houses to show for it.
They are trying it again. With voter id and relentless media and paid advertising trying to keep people home out of despair. We can’t let it work again people.
It’s their only hope.
Politico and Reuters have already outdone The Hill.
In a Politico article on their latest poll entitled “Alarm, Anxiety As Election Looms,” the lede is that a sense of gloom, failure, and Ebola are hanging over the electorate. But the findings actually show:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/20/1337837/-Politico-Downplaying-Major-Obama-Bounce-in-Their-O
wn-Poll
Meanwhile, Reuters reports that Obama is now so unpopular that the many of the 8,000 people who came to a MD campaign rally filed out after only a few minutes. Somehow they forgot to mention that those “many” were from the overflow room who were allowed to take pictures but had to leave once they got their shots.
This narrative is cover for what I expect to be some very shocking voter fraud activities – especially in WI where the WIGOTP has announced its plans to try to enforce the voter ID law the SCOTUS struck down.
Why do you think Politico is called Drudgico or Tiger Beat on the Potomac?
Well the alternate explanation are the polls are missing something because it does seem unlikely democrats would be doing so well in Romney states.
The President is black but the Senatorial and Gubernatorial candidates are not. The states were not pro-Romney but anti-black. That’s my explanation anyway.
I think anti-black is the equivalent of anti-Dem in most of these states.
Attack your opponents’ strengths as weaknesses.
So, here we have a mid-term election in year 6 of a Democratic President, and the GOP is going to be very lucky just to win a slight majority in the Senate. Assuming they win the races they really have no business losing, like the ones in the south and in other states.
Sounds about right.