Sen. Marco Rubio is proceeding as if he is going to make a run for the presidency. The question is “Why?”
Sen. Marco Rubio has begun taking concrete steps toward launching a presidential bid, asking his top advisors to prepare for a campaign, signing on a leading Republican fundraiser, and planning extensive travel to early-voting states in the coming weeks, ABC News has learned.
“He has told us to proceed as if he is running for president,” a senior Rubio advisor tells ABC News.
Let me look at this from a few different angles. First, as been noted ad nauseam, most of his strongest political support comes from his home state of Florida, but this has been wrenched from him by former Florida governor Jeb Bush’s decision to get in the race. He will struggle to raise the money he needs to build an organization even if Jeb eventually falters badly and drops out early. And, while he can credibly carve out a position to the right of Jeb on many issues, on immigration reform he is branded by his successful effort to pass legislation through the Senate at the outset of President Obama’s second term. Both he and Jeb will be occupying the “moderate” and “reasonable” pro-business position on immigration.
To catch on as the better Florida alternative, he’ll have to draw distinctions with Jeb, and getting rough with him will cause Rubio problems with his own local base.
Yet, if he isn’t getting “in it to win it,” perhaps he is angling for the vice-presidential slot. In that case, it makes sense to raise his profile and to get as many committed delegates as he can, but he’s constitutionally prohibited from running on the same ticket as Jeb, so he’d be depending on someone else coming away with the prize. And, in any case, getting picked to be the number two is a long-shot.
Perhaps, then, the explanation is that he wants to set himself up for a more credible run in four years, on the assumption that Hillary Clinton will be running for reelection at that time and the country may be ready to ditch the Democrats after a 12-year run in the Oval Office.
But there’s a hitch in this theory. He’s up for reelection next year, and according to Florida law, in order to be on the presidential ticket Rubio must drop off the Senate ballot line. He cannot be on both lines of the ballot. The filing deadline in Florida isn’t until May 2016, so he should know by then whether he has a shot at either winning the nomination or being selected as a running mate, and that may be how is going to play it. Still, he will have to make a decision well before the Republican National Convention rolls around. As for setting himself up for a run in four years, he’d be in better position as a sitting U.S. Senator who hasn’t run for president before than he would be as a private citizen who has.
Overall, it just seems like the downsides of running should outweigh the potential upsides.
Marco Rubio, running for President of the USA?!?!?!?!
ROFLMAO!!!
Stop it, Marco!
You’re killing me.
You aren’t qualified to be President of Florida’s bird-watching association!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It’s like each of them–Christie, Rommey, Bush, Kasich, Rubio–can see the utter hopelessness of all the others, but hasn’t been issued with a mirror.
What makes you think that Rubio has significant support in Florida? I mean, he might have, but I’ve seen none of it.
He certainly had the RightWing vote in 2010 running against Crist, and in FL that is significant for the Primaries.
In the general, he was opposed by Meek … not exactly a household name and not known as a great campaigner, Crist running as an independent splitting the non-crazy vote and FOUR other opponents.
I see no reason to believe that Rubio would be able to win the seat again in 2016. Or that it would be a shoe-in at any rate.
Am I that far off base?
This has nothing to do with whether Rubio has any chance at the presidency or even the nomination. Jeb Bush running, precisely because he is from Florida, represents a threat to Rubio’s political standing in the state. That’s all this is about, keeping up the image of a major figure in the state and the party. And I stress the word “image”.
I’m not disputing your statement, but if Rubio can’t hold the Seat in Florida in 2016, how does a doomed run for a (at a minimum) problematic Presidential nomination help him?
‘Tis a puzzlement.
This is covered by the great and all knowing Forest Gump. He quoted his mother,”Stupid is as Stupid does”. There is nothing more to say about this topic it is now completely covered.
It’s quite unfathomable what someone like Rubio sees in himself. He seems a mediocre pol at best. As derfarm observes, it’s not like his 2010 win was some great affirmation by Floridians, and he may conceivably have trouble just being reelected in a prez year from a state that voted for Obama twice (and Gore once). If he were to lose his senate perch, he’s toast, and would have to go onto wingnut welfare or the Lobbying Racket.
So perhaps Rubio thinks it’s now or never. Of course this political weakness angle would conflict with the simply nauseating level of egomania that most US senators possess. And Rubio surely must have put together a coterie of sycophants telling him his 2016 chances are excellent against another Bush-Boy, a bellowing NJ fatman, and the absurd Rmoney. These paid courtiers can be expected to have told Rubio exactly what he wants to hear: that he’s the Latino Obama! The kids will LOVE him! etc, etc. Plus, Rubio had already made clear his “interest” in running, so this isn’t exactly coming out of the blue. Indeed, Jeb and Mitt(II) are the bigger surprises…
None of these guys strike one as the brightest bulbs on the tree; incredibly, most can hardly string together two coherent sentences even when the questions from the useless corporate media are emailed before the “appearance”. As “conservative” males, they appear to hear just what they want to hear and perhaps that explains this silly Rubio character and his dubious prez aspirations. But this hapless collection of happy Repub warriors certainly does indicate that these guys don’t think Hillary C is a shoe-in at all…..
She’s not, but the electoral map is a tough one for the GOP to crack in 2016.
Christie (ignoring the possibility that his crooked capers could be exposed) will only play well in the guaranteed red states, but like McGovern, Gore, Rmoney won’t even be able to carry his home state.
A Kasich-Bush or Bush-Kasich ticket could flip FL and OH but they need more than that.
Jeb is only viable if Clinton runs — that defuses his status baggage, a dynasty candidate and his brother’s wretched record. Therefore, my call is that he doesn’t officially announce his candidacy unless or until Hillary announces her’s first.
Do they have a wildly popular, charismatic, not too young, not too old, not crazy sounding Governor in a bluish state that they could run? Like a version of Clinton in 1992.
Republican Governor Charlie Baker in Massachusetts could fit that bill, but he just took office — too soon. He’d never get past the primaries, much too liberal for the crazies, of course, but in the general he’d be formidable — moderate, photogenic, impressive resume, genial personality that plays well on TV.
Also, he’s really really tall.
Was thinking wildly popular within his/her home state.
Baker only managed to get 48.4% of the vote against one of the worst Democratic political campaigners. (over three percent went with the progressive and Baker couldn’t hope to pick up more than the 1.6% that went with the independent candidates) The 2016 POTUS race begins in a few months when Baker will only have had a few months in political office. By 2020 (assuming he’s re-elected) he could have a chance, but then he’d be 64 years old — the older guy in Presidential elections are disadvantaged.
Check this out. 70.58% for re-election. Only 51 years old.
Not really “constitutionally prohibited” from being on the ticket with Jeb. Both could not receive Florida’s electoral votes.