I understand the impulse that led Gary Legum to compare Jeb Bush’s campaign to a dead parrot that has “shuffled off this mortal coil.” I understand it because I suffer from the same impulse. I keep having to exercise self-restraint to avoid writing precisely the kind of pre-autopsy that Legum has just penned.
It really couldn’t be easier to mock Jeb Bush and his political aspirations. They are the lowest of low-hanging fruits.
But his campaign isn’t dead, yet.
And his campaign isn’t dead for the same reason that John McCain’s campaign wasn’t dead when he completely ran out of money and had to start over from scratch. It’s the same reason that Mitt Romney could simultaneously be the very last choice of the Republican base (after they had chewed over “serious” candidates like Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Herman Cain) and the Republican nominee.
I’m not talking about Republican voters having a come-to-Jesus moment when they realize that they have to nominate someone with an iota of general election plausibility. I’m talking about the sheer impossibility of nominating Tom Tancredo or Fred Thompson or Rick Perry.
And, frankly, Tancredo, Thompson and Perry were considerably better prepared to handle the nuclear football than Donald Trump, Ben Carson, or Carly Fiorina.
Say what you want about Jeb Bush’s warmed-over policy proposals, he wouldn’t spend his first 90 days in office trying to work the light switches in the Residence or asking random Marines how to find the Situation Room.
Legum also compared the Jeb campaign to a zombie that doesn’t know it’s dead, but it could be that the more apt zombie comparison is that Jeb’s campaign is hard to kill and has a remarkable and frightening ability to come back to life.
I’ve said myself that Jeb has no juice. I’ve said that he doesn’t have what it takes. I’ve said that I see no real sign that he can fix his problems. That’s all true.
But I can’t count him out for a simple reason. Until I see the Republicans nominate a candidate as weak and ridiculous as their frontrunners, I won’t believe it will actually happen.
What you want to watch is not Jeb’s fundraising numbers or even his polling numbers. What you want to watch is if any of the other candidates who have some actual relevant experience and who would be acceptable to the Republican Establishment (sorry, Ted Cruz) start getting some real polling traction.
Jeb can be supplanted but the widespread desire for a non-joke candidate cannot.
What’s going to make me laugh is if either Rubio or Fiorina become the true Establishment alternative to Bush. That would be the rough equivalent of the Democratic elites arguing over whether Jack Abramoff or James Traficant would make a better party leader.
If you want some real perspective, consider this: the real dead parrot here, the thing whose “metabolic processes are now history,” is the Republican Party itself. And Jeb is supposed to be their defibrillator.
I think that’s what the exclamation point was all about.
History can guide us a little in figuring out who might be the nominee.
All of that leaves Bush, Christie, Cruz, Kasich, Paul and Rubio. Paul is a loose cannon and too malleable in his stated beliefs. Reagan was a loose cannon, too, but he was governor of a huge state first. Cruz is scary, but Reagan was scary too. Cruz seems unlikable, but Nixon seemed unlikable. Christie seems to be dead-man-walking, but he is still there. Rubio seems like a lightweight – it’s hard for me to imagine that someone won’t metaphorically knife him if he gets to be even #3 in the polls.
How many are running this time to create a national organization to make a strong run next time? That would seem to fit Cruz to a T. How many are running for VP? That would seem to fit Rubio to a T.
Any of the BCCKPR candidates should do their best to stick around through the SC primary on February 20. Who knows what may happen to cause their candidacy to take fire…
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who wouldn’t be surprised if Cruz somehow wins, nor by a blowout loss by him in the general – it would feed his monomania for a later run.)
Using the past and precedents to understand the present only works if the past is similar to the present.
When I was young, smoke-filled rooms were the way nominees were chosen – primary elections were a minor factor. The current importance of primaries is a recent phenomenon. The idea that political experience and political connections are unimportant or even negatives being a widely held view among primary voters is an even more recent development. So, I do not see much validity to your point No. 1.
I have to agree. Another thing, the Republicans are not going to nominate a clearly religious candidate like Santorum – or Pat Roberts for those of us who remember his run. This also squashes Cruz. Carson also.
And Cruz cannot be compared to Nixon. Nixon wasn’t liked, but he played the game and tried to be liked. Cruz is constitutionally incapable of attempting that gambit.
I saw an article this morning that says Rubio is out of money. Yes, it happened to McCain also, but not this early in the campaign. And he does not seem to want the job badly enough to put real energy into getting the nomination. Those two factors make it seem unlikely to me that he will survive this rough patch – unless Sheldon Adelson decides to step in and take over his campaign.
The Republican establishment always has the last word on the Republican nominee. They will still go with Jeb.
Rubio is also caught in a rather nasty Morton’s Fork as well, one in which he hasn’t decided on a path yet.
Rubio is distrusted by the base for his furtive gestures on immigration reform. They’re willing to forgive him (since Rubio is otherwise quite good to the base on every other issue) but only if he publicly repudiates his last actions and promises to go full-on nativist. The problem with that course of action is that it would cause Rubio to completely lose establishment support. And it’s not clear how many more people would be willing to vote for Rubio even if he did go full-Trump. Regardless, Rubio has to make a move soon, because otherwise he’s going to get slurred as a Mexican-coddling cuckservative if he keeps trying to hedge and it’ll be too late.
I believe that it’s going to be Jeb. Jeb’s numbers are a result of him getting completely shredded to pieces by Trump’s attacks. Rubio hasn’t been put through the wringer yet but it’s fair to expect that he’ll end up like Walker once he does.
Fiorina is not going to hold up. The elites and their quisling media were a bit too hasty in promoting her after the 2nd debate and she’s revealing her true colors — she’s a loose cannon. She goes down before Carson and Trump. She’s as big of a wacko-bird as both of them but unlike them she doesn’t have grassroots support. As soon as the establishment stops boosting her, her numbers go down. Which… is already what’s happening, as we can see from poll aggregation. Whether her collapse benefits Rubio or Bush (or some other candidate) remains to be seen.
While it’s easy to dismiss Fiorina because she’s nothing but a media creation and can be taken down at will. Suspect they thought the same about Trump, but he’s proving to be more resilient than they expected. Carson isn’t running an authentic campaign — he’s coasting on a base a group of consultants built over the past three years and they’ll probably stick with him as long as he remains in the race. Or he could throw a monkey-wrench in the process by dropping out and endorsing one of the other candidates, several of whom have gazillionaires behind them who would be happy to pay whatever price Carson demands.
The real dilemma for the GOP elites is settling on the one that would be the least objectionable to them and those not in the Trump and Carson camps. It’s no more apparent to me at this point then it was in 2008 who that person will be, but don’t doubt that they’ll get that person through to the nomination.
Carson may not be seriously running, but tell that to his supporters. He has legitimate followers and potential voters; the vast majority of his fundraising comes from grassroots and he raised quite a lot last quarter. He raised more than 3x the amount that Rubio, considered a serious candidate, did. I doubt that he’ll go the distance, but in terms of structural support (polls, fundraising, offices) he’s as serious a candidate as anyone.
As far as Fiorina goes… the difference between Trump and her is that Trump genuinely tapped into a segment of the Republican voting base where he’s the best option. Trump’s support is, surprisingly, largely non-ideological; it wouldn’t be inaccurate to say that he and Ross Perot were cut from the same cloth in terms of political appeal.
Fiorina does have her appeal, too, but her legitimate base of support is a cross-section of Carson and Trump voters. She might be able to go the distance, but she’s definitely not the staid, serious establishment-friendly candidate that they were hoping for. From their perspective, there’s value in keeping her numbers inflated for the time being (since she ate into Trump’s numbers), but not at the expense of choking out Rubio/Bush/Kasich.
The Draft Carson for President was a direct mail operation that was in business for more than two years. It raised and spent $20 million. It was an adjunct to Carson’s self and book promotion activities. I don’t categorize any direct mail fundraising operation that exists primarily to support itself as a grassroots political movement. There’s no grass and no roots. It built a donor base for a personality that a large number of people find appealing who has zero chance of winning the GOP nomination. It has raised like $30 million for candidate Carson and spent $20 million on little else than fundraising — but Dr. Ben does appreciate that it’s picking up the tab for his travel expenses.
The DM Register (chosen b/c it has the best track record polling in Iowa) at the end of August had Trump at 23, Carson at 18 and Fiorina at 5. NBC/WSJ at the end of Sept had Trump at 24, Carson at 19 and Fiorina at 8. So while it may seem logical to you that Fio is pulling voters away from Trump and Carson, that’s not what’s happening.
Dead right on all counts about Fiorina, dead wrong on all counts on Rubio.
Rubio is not beloved by the base. For the same reason Carson is not beloved by the non-Xtian base: color.
Rubio didn’t repudiate immigration reform fast enough, which gave the absolutely, post-racial not-racist anti-Hispanic crowd an excuse to not like him. But make no mistake, they don’t like him because he IS of color. No one else likes him either. Hell, even the Cubans prefer Jeb@. Rubio is running for Prez for a very simple reason: he can’t get re-elected to the senate.
Rubio is already on life support
JEB! has very high negatives with the most committed GOP voters, including Tea Party types and Evangelicals. (Kasich and Christie do also.) I do not see how he can overcome his negatives problem.
Didn’t this happen the other way a couple times? When we nominated McGovern, or considered nominated Stevenson? Am I forgetting someone?
We’ve had our Rubios.
The Donald is currently pointing out that 911 occurred on W’s watch and all Jeb can say is that W kept us safe. W is locked away in a well lit room with water colors and can’t even defend himself. Oh, and where is Jeb’s wife? Appears The Donald has sent her into hiding. Jeb is surrounded by people who have no idea how to win…he is a loser.
And yet Jeb! was elected to two terms as Florida governor. What does that say about the Democratic Party in Florida? Or do all these clowns only start acting stupid when they run on a national stage?
Yes, we can safely ignore dumb/lame asses that have been elected in states that have close to a zero probability of turning blue in 2016, such as Jindal and Cruz, but DEMs are fools to dismiss the elected doofuses from “swing states.”
W. was a doofus from Texas, and regardless of the shenanigans, he got elected at least once if you count 2000 and 2004 cumulatively.
I still think that Trump and Cruz are basically the same entity, and support from one is support for the other. Wasn’t Reagan sorta considered a nut at the time, and yet he was the vanguard politician of the current American Reactionary para d/b/a the Republican party.
I’ve noticed that Trump and Cruz seem to leave each other alone, and while both are nuts, neither are stupid. Which is dangerous.
Sure, Jeb:/ is the establishment as his daddy and bro-bro have already had their turns as Lord Protector, and he’s next because he’s of age and has the right last name, but I can still see a Cruz/Trump or Trump/Cruz ticket. Which either loses in a landslide and destroys the GOP, or if HRC/Dem Nominee X melts down, should ensure interesting times.
W. also had his little bro as Gov. of FL, and Jeb(?) promised W. that FL was his. (Technically Jeb(?) screwed up on that, but the GOP A team at that time stormed in with Plans A-D. A was to shut down the voter projection service that called Fl for Gore. B was to manipulate the vote count in a few counties to put W in the lead. That almost worked as Gore conceded. Then the tabulations from other counties began rolling in that put Gore closer and closer. C file suit in federal court. D shut down the selected county hand recounts. Gore really screwed up by not filing for a statewide recount — completely unaware that many counties hadn’t even performed the mandatory automatic recount. When the FL Supreme Court ordered that recount performed in public it was imperative to shut it down because team W knew they didn’t have the votes.)
Don’t forget about the Brooks Brothers Riot. I’d classify it as an actual putsch.
That was “D.” The selected counties recounts. They were also working the media on the other counties and mocking the “hanging chads,” etc.
iirc, team Bush screwed up on the Gore lawsuit that led to the order for the hand recounts in selected counties by appealing that decision. There weren’t enough vote counting errors in those counties to have put Gore ahead. Although team Bush didn’t know that. That appeal by team Bush is how it ended up with the FL Supreme Court that agreed that it was inappropriate to select a few counties for a hand recount. To team Bush’s surprise the court then ordered a full recount in all counties, and that’s the recount that they knew they would fail to win. But they had anticipated such a possibility from day one, that’s why they had filed Bush v. Gore which had been working its way up the federal courts while everyone else was focused on the FL suit and the ballot hand counting. So, when that FL SC order came down, they were at the US Supreme Court within hours.
Yes, but I wouldn’t group that into something broader. I’d give that putsch a category of its own.
Twice the base has swallowed a “realistic” candidate they hated, only to watch that candidate lose to Barack Obama. Romney benefited from the fact that the establishment vote was unified early, and the Not-Romney was split between a rotating cast of clowns and the Paul faction. Had Gingrich and Santorum joined forces, I think they could have beat Romney, but they could not agree who should be top of the ticket.
What Jeb has to do at a minimum is become the only establishment candidate early on. I think this will be hard. He’s outlasted Walker, but Kasich, Rubio, and Cruz have to fall pretty early.
Rubio has some very hard-right positions and opinions-on team all out Neocon for the foreign policy, no rape or incest exception anti-abortion and more. Rubio just does not have the high negatives with the “base” that JEB! and Kasich have, so Rubio seems to me the most probable “last establishment guy standing.”
Cruz is a Reconstructionist Christian (ie, explicit advocate of theocracy), as such Cruz really counts not as “establishment.” Cruz has lots of money and one of the best ground games, Cruz will not be going away any time soon.
Rubio’s only heresy is that with immigration. But it’s a huge one. I’m sure that the base is willing to forgive Rubio if he apologizes and reverses his position, but there’s a real question of whether he can get establishment support if he does. And Rubio is legitimately hurting for money at this time.
I think Rubio would be best served going after Carson. His hard-right positions on abortion and gay rights would make him pretty attractive to the base if they would give him a hearing.
Jeb at home:
Nice.
The makeup guys do such a good job for his public appearances!!!
At least he’s not shuffled off this mortal coil yet.
More infotainment awaits.
AG
I agree with you, BooMan.
The Establishment wins in the GOP.
I don’t know how, right now, they are going to win with Jeb. BUt, Jeb is their guy.
So, I do think Jeb will win.
Trump spent five minutes backing Jeb into a weekend quagmire over W’s presidency; Ezra Klein thinks this amounts to a decisive weakness now exposed to a relentless opponent. Hard to disagree. For a campaign which has already attracted considerable attention for sub-par performances in several categories this would seem to be an awkward problem at a difficult time.
Assume dear dead.
Jeb? hopes that defending his brother will raise money for his campaign. Surely there are a few million idiots that would be happy to plunk down a few dollars for such a worthy effort. A mere fraction of the fifty million-plus morons that voted for GWB in 2004. If Trump is wrong, Jeb? will be sitting pretty on a big new pile of campaign cash. If he’s right, Jeb? just took a huge direct hit.
Every minute Jeb spends talking about Iraq is a victory for his opponents in both parties.
Did you mean “talking about 9/11?” Then I agree that all Jeb’s opponents gain.
If you meant “talking about Iraq,” then I disagree. Not many of Jeb’s opponents are clean on that issue. Trump claimed in the second debate that he had opposed the war. However, Mother Jones has checked and can’t find any evidence that he in fact did so. Doesn’t mean that he won’t continue making the claim as long as nobody can find that he said anything about before the war began. So, he might be teeing up for a general election against Clinton.
Your point is well taken. Either way, though, it is lose-lose for Jeb.
The Hill – Bush fundraising off of Trump’s 9/11 comments. Should be interesting to see how this works our for Jeb?.
I could make the case that Jeb’s working on a ‘rope-a-dope’ strategy and that it could very well work for him. Lord knows, the dopes are there aplenty. He’s going to wait until they screw up or punch themselves out. Don’t count him out–he’s got staying power.