The Washington Post has an article up about Republican elites panicking about the prospect of either Donald Trump or Ben Carson winning the nomination. The piece is about what you’d expect, but it does have one anonymous quote that I think is worth sharing:
The apprehension among some party elites goes beyond electability, according to one Republican strategist who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly about the worries.
“We’re potentially careening down this road of nominating somebody who frankly isn’t fit to be president in terms of the basic ability and temperament to do the job,” this strategist said. “It’s not just that it could be somebody Hillary could destroy electorally, but what if Hillary hits a banana peel and this person becomes president?”
Another way of putting this is that the political concern is in jeopardy of getting trumped by a basic responsible concern for the welfare of the country. I think we saw some of this back in 2008 when Barack Obama was able to capitalize on a combination of the complete implosion of the Bush administration on every level and concerns about the temperament and suitability of both McCain and Palin to peel off traditionally right-leaning elites. It wasn’t just Colin Powell who defected, but William Buckley’s son and the offspring of Dwight Eisenhower and many big-name investors and capitalists.
There’s a point where folks will actually give up on the GOP and vote for the Democrat, and it’s really not that big of a leap to put your trust in the Clintons. You kind of know what you’re going to get and they’ve got a record of basic competence.
This isn’t the only way that the Clintons can conceivably build a supermajority coalition but it’s an important one. The Establishment may be looking weak in this election cycle, but they have the money and the printing presses, and if they drop a lot of their internal divisions and rally around Hillary Clinton, it’s going to make a big difference.
It wouldn’t last, of course. It didn’t even last for LBJ. But think of what LBJ accomplished in those first two years.
Or…the PermaGov protects itself.
Turn it around.
Somehow, some way Sanders takes the lead from Clinton.
Translation.
Yup.
Like dat.
Both ways.
Bet on it.
Watch.
AG
You’ve demonstrated over the years that you have some interesting and valid ideas, but I can’t be the only one who finds the style with which you express yourself to be incredibly juvenile and annoying.
Can’t you just make your point without all the smug schoolyard posturing?
No, his ideas are stupid too.
Can’t I just make my point without all of the “smug schoolyard posturing?”
No.
I have tried.
My “point”…points, actually…are radically different from those of most so-called “progressives” who frequent sites like this. If I were to just clomp-clomp-clomp along using the usual boring syntax no one would notice, so I provide a little linguistic shock here and there to get the attention of the clomp-clomp-clompers.
So it goes.
Deal wid it.
Or not. As you wish.
As you must.
AG
P.S. If you truly understood the point of that last sentence your whole life would change.
Overnight.
Bet on it.
Your “linguistic shock” would be circled by any college freshman writing instructor, with a marginal comment about using trite phrases. But then those writing instructors are obviously part of the self-replicating machinery by which the elite maintain their grip on power, so who gives a flying fuck about what they have to say anyway, right?
Precisely.
I am a high-level professional NYC musician who gives clinics and masterclasses in my specialties at the university/conservatory level, and that is exactly what I think of about 99.9% of the college-level music teachers that I have experienced.
So…nu?
AG
And the best thing about you is your modesty!
Just telling the truth, JDW. I worked like a sonafabitch to master my art and craft. In fact, probably the only real talent that I have is the ability to work hard and consistently.
Or maybe it’s simpler than that.
I care.
For real.
Deal wid it.
Or not.
As you must.
AG
Let me get this straight. You are saying that the GOP elites are more likely to back Hillary to block Bernie than to block the GOP clown car.
So is the Democratic primary becoming tantamount to the general election in the Presidential slot?
Eleventy dimensional chess?
No, TarHeel. I am saying that “the elites”…of both parties and those that are non-aligned…will block anybody by any means necessary who threatens the centrist positions of both parties.
Just as it has been for at least the last 50 years.
Seriously threaten the militarily enforced economic imperialist system that produces wealth for the NATO powers and/or threaten the socio-economically enforced system…with the help of the justice system on all levels…that keeps cheap labor available domestically and you simply will not be allowed to win the presidential nomination.
They got away with killing three major enemies of that construct in the ’60s…four if you count Malcolm X…and then found a way through the use of media and the concomitantly produced big money support of campaigns to do the same thing with much less mess.
They are still at it.
AG
This Mike Lofgren essay from earlier this year.
Thank you, Shaun. Right on the money.
From an email I wrote today to a friend:
Bet on it.
AG
I know you posed this question to AG, not me, but I am not talking here in this piece about Republican operatives who actually make their living off of fighting for the Republican team.
I’m talking about powerful people who have real influence over our politics through various means, but also just of the class of people who vote Republican because it’s the respectable thing to do for people in their social circles. The GOP already lost a big chunk of the internationalist set back when Bolton took over the UN and we started talking about Old Europe and Freedom Fries and all the rest.
They’re losing folks left and right who care about gay rights, which is the respectable position among elites in our financial centers.
They’re losing folks who believe in multiculturalism and tolerance.
But there’s another group that will vote Republican no matter what right up until you nominate someone who they think is manifestly unfit for the office. These are folks who trusted Romney but not McCain/Palin. They’d be okay with Walker or Jeb or Kasich, but not Trump or Carson or Cruz.
They exist as voters, although a small bloc mainly living in reliably blue states and the District. But they are big-time opinion leaders, and they have influence over how the media cover the campaign. For example, the article cited in this piece.
That Republican movement conservatives are angry enough to celebrate a nominee whom has zero chance in the general so long as they channel the angst and stick it to the ‘donor class’ in the process.
So, yeah. Problem. From the context its hard to know if he’s talking about Trump or Cruz; between them I’m pretty sure these folks fear and loathe Cruz the most.
I’ve been saying it. Trump as the nominee kills the GOP as a national party. And it makes it harder for the centrist enablers to continue lying with the BothSidesDoItTM BigLie.
Thanks, Trump.
So what happens to the contingent of complete lunatics (not just Trump/Carson supporters but the whole crazy demographic) if there’s not a viable GOP any more?
I’m not challenging your premise; I think you’re correct. I just don’t know enough about the historical precedents (the demise of the Whigs, etc.) to know what happens next.
Historically, as the Whigs collapse their coalition more or less reforms around another political party and set of ideas.
The American party first appeared in New York in 1843 in reaction to the first massive waves of Irish and German Catholic immigrants. It spread across the country, took power in some cities (e.g., Philadelphia, Chicago, San Francisco) states (e.g., Massachusetts in 1854), nominated former president Millard Fillmore (who was never a party member) as their presidential candidate in 1856, then fell apart over slavery in the late 1850s, with the anti-slavery faction joining the Republican party, and the pro-slavery faction largely voting the Constitutional Party line in 1860. (That split, along with a split in the Democratic party, is what allowed Lincoln to sweep the electoral college in the northern states and win the 1860 election with less than 40% of the popular vote).
Trump? Maybe, Carson definitely.
Unfortunately it’s not that much of a stretch for the Republican elites to put their faith in Clinton.
For what it’s worth, Hillary Clinton would be the second College Republican to be elected President (after Calvin Coolidge).
The new McClatchy has Sanders completely wiping out either Trump or Bush – Trump by 12 points, Bush by 10. Clinton beats Trump by 15, but Bush by only 8. Against Carson, Rubio, and especially Fiorina, Clinton is in the margin of error. Sanders was not polled against those candidates.
I think AG may have a point that they are scared of Trump, but also of Sanders. Even if they manage to get Bush in, it doesn’t look good, and the other establishment candidates are probably comparable. Of course, it is very far out for GE polling, but this is the data we have, and it is not at all what the establishment of either party would expect or like to see.
More on this. Trump is by far the best known of the GOP candidates because he is a celebrity. Bush is not so known, but his family is, and I think people are largely judging on that (good). Carson, Rubio, and Fiorina poll similarly in the general despite being quite different. I think they are polling primarily as generic Republicans, and it is therefore disturbing that Clinton has no clear lead on them. Someone needs to poll Sanders against these guys. If he does substantially better than she, her electability argument, which is her strongest argument, will look pretty threadbare.
TO HELL WITH HILLARY CLINTON.
I can’t possibly hope to read anything more intelligent anywhere today!
Thank you. That’s it in a nutshell. Let her sing a duet with Tony Bennett instead.
reading TPM I’m seeing lots of Hillary ads that look like old time massengill ads [ok to start with the “sexist comment” responses, ppl]
Not tipping your comment because then the troll/bot rating would count against you.
I’d like to believe that some large portion of the Republican party is sensible enough to turn away when the craziest shit goes down, but I feel like these guys would vote for Timur Lenk over Clinton (or Sanders).
In your dreams! There isn’t a more hated woman on Earth for the GOP.
The right has not won the nomination recently – really since ’80.
Carson and Trump are going to test this.
My guess is ranks are going to close behind the highest establishment candidate in NH, and that candidate will win the nomination. McCain, after all, won South Carolina (though of course Gingrich won it in ’12).
Only if they can wrestle it away from Cruz. The ‘SEC’ primary is now a dire threat; seems to me.
Julie Nixon Eisenhower was for Obama. The thing that surprised me so much when I saw the story in the NY Times was how much Julie looked like her mother.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/a-nixon-for-obama/?_r=0
And Hillary Clinton attended the wedding of Trisha Nixon’s son.
That’s really it, Hillary can say; I’m really a neoliberal conservative so vote for me because I’m not as crazy as Trump, then the ball really gets rolling as the Republican Establishment gets behind her. This is going to make the DNC and Debbie Wasserman-Shultz quite proud because the Democrats are now finally the official Republican -Lite Party aligned with the corporatist instead of becoming the official Democratic Party of the people.
Bernie has been saying this could happen with his nomination as well but with a twist. Bernie wants to peel off the working class Republicans instead of the corporatist Republican Establishment. Who says there is no difference between the Republican and Democrat elite that puts our base to sleep?
Thank you AustinSax!!!
Precisely that.
The fix is always in.
AG
Sure, GOP elites could rally around a center right Clinton campaign if they want to destroy the Republican party and end their careers, which I think they in no way want to. And anyways, if they do, she probably ends up being a weaker candidate than the faux progressive reformer she is trying to pretend to be now.
Facts are facts, the GOP created their monster, now they have to live with it. The Republican elites (well, really the elites of both parties) value the grift over everything else. Sure, some of them might be having second thoughts about the depths their party has sunk to, but I’m sure they will figure out how to make a buck or two of the situation. And, don’t forget, there is a whole slew of right wing billionaires who, for some insane reason, really want to keep throwing rocks inside their glass house. Destroying what’s left of rational (not much…) in the Republican party would just be another step in their quest to destroy democratic government in our country. But the key point is that their money is good to the grifter class.
Also, I’d be really surprised if a Trump or Carson would be able to win a majority of delegates with such a large field. And if they don’t perhaps we do see a brokered convention and a return of the elites. Who knows, at this point really anything is possible.
The GOP Establishment has not ever lost, have they?
We’ll see what happens.
The GOP Establishment has not ever lost, have they?
Cantor? Though I’m not sure he really lost, if you know what I mean.
Giving Cliton cover for further neoliberal destruction. Fan-fucking-tastic.
Game it out with a decision tree. DEM wins the electoral college.
Clinton v.
Trump/Carson*Rubio (and officially the GOP elites don’t concede the GE) will gin up the base and that’s how the GOP can retain the House and Senate. A few seats could shift from red to blue, but that wouldn’t be a problem because they would be DNC approved neoliberalcons. *(Brand Carson could fall soon due to his plethora of lies and truly nutty notions).
Clinton v.
Bush/Kasich
depresses the GOP base and loses House and Senate. Still not bad because as we saw in 1994 and 2010, it would be temporary and the DEM majorities and WH would still be neoliberalcons cutting deals with the GOP elites.
In the latest McClatchy/Maris poll, Carson has the lowest “anybody but him/her” rating at 3%, but Rubio and Cruz are only at 6%. So, all things considered, their best bet is Rubio. Trump could pull a Perot, but that won’t impact the down-ticket races and Rubio isn’t expected to win anyway.
The GOP elites can quit “shaking in their boots” as soon as Clinton wins the DEM nomination.
FWIW I have a co-worker who has a signed portrait of Ronald Reagan hanging in his office. He used to be a diehard Republican. Then the GOP started nominating anti-science religious cranks. Now whenever he mentions the GOP, it’s with complete disdain. I’m fairly sure he supported Obama. No, he’s not one of Booman power brokers, but he’s an interesting case nonetheless.
So much of political party identification is just cultural and visceral, of course….
“there’s a point where [elite?] folks will actually give up on the GOP and vote for the Democrat…”
Granted this seems possible in theory, but has it ever really happened in reality? It surely won’t happen if Sanders is the nominee, Repub elites would clearly favor an American Fascist (however unqualified) over him, haha.
There was much talk of a segment of ordinary Repubs switching to Obama in 2008, but I seem to remember that when the dust settled in the exit polls, it didn’t really occur. Repubs voted for McCain, who of course was an establishment candidate that had been crammed down the rubes’ throats. His gambit with Pinhead Palin was done to energize the very same rubes. Did the Repub elites really abandon ship over her?
Who is the target audience for these (anonymous) Repub leakers? Is it an authentic message or disinformation? Presumably it’s some sort of attempt to warn primary voters off….who? There are three completely unqualified candidates at the Big Kids table, one is a con man running a fundie fleecing fraud and/or branding scheme, and two are major CEOs–are the Repub elites really going to declare one of our Heroic Job Creatin’ CEOs unqualified when push comes to shove? Talk about cognitive dissonance!
Whoever these quavering elites are, they can hedge their bets and start giving Hillary cashola right now, while also funding their favorite “qualified” Repub. So max out for HRC and her PACs galore. Under our corrupt system of campaign bribery, no one will be the wiser. If elites are really as concerned as these strategist leakers maintain, they should be deploying these funds immediately.
The GOP elites did abandon McCain in 2008.
They hung in with Romney, not because he could win, but it was the best strategy to retain the GOP majority in the House.