So I was playing around with projections, and happened across the Yougov and PPP SC polls. All anyone cares about are the toplines – but I looked at the cross-tabs.
All anyone has been talking about when it comes to the South is the African American vote, and how Bernie is going get killed. And it is right to focus on that.
But I think there was an assumption in that discussion that a democratic socialist would get killed among whites too.
But here is the thing: in PPP he splits the SC white vote and in Yougov he wins it. It is kind of mind-blowing that Bernie would do that well when he still isn’t known that well.
So I modeled the southern 3/1 primaries. A funny thing happened: Clinton only nets 67 delegates among all 7, and Sanders could reduce that significantly in other 3/1 states.
If the Sc cross-tabs hold, the southern firewall isn’t going to be much of a firewall.
I can’t get the image to show, but it is here:
http://s140.photobucket.com/user/fladem/media/delegatecplit_zpsjvk1cvxg.gif.html
[Update]: the math is simple but repeated over and over. So I predicted VA would be 49-39, a new poll has it 52-40. You see a similar breakdown in the new Suffolk national poll, and in the new SC poll.
I guess there wo assumptins regarding the south1) that blacks will favor the Clintons and 2) that white democrats are more conservative in the south. I think the country has become so polarized that conservative leaning whites in the south have nostly become republicans
Did you see the recent ARG poll? I think it is wildly off base just by looking at its cross tabs, and it’s also an outlier compared to the others, but wasn’t sure if you had a chance to check it out yet.
americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/scdem.html
It is nonsense
my guess is ppl are already looking at the dem primary in terms of the general. I’m convinced Hillary’s support is weak – anecdotally, I have spoken with no one who expressed support for her, no one – nor overheard conversations for that matter.
There isn’t much enthusiasm
Which raises the question – will African Americans vote
Looks like getting killed to me. Solid five to ten per cent losses except for a tie in Oklahoma.
A+ for the work you put in on this diary.
It is all about delegates. Onesy, twosy, threesy, choosy…
Yea. Her margins won’t met her much. Which was the point
Offered without comment, from the PPP poll via Taegan Goddard:
What can one possibly say to that?
LOL The “unsures” are being PC.
Excellent catch. Only the SC one matters at the moment. The narrative from SC will affect the others in some way as will the narrative from SuperTuesday. If Bernie makes it past SuperTuesday in terms of media attention, it’s going to be a horse race.
Hopefully, the GOTV groundwork is being built as the campaign moves along to counterbalance the coming media shitstorm. At some point the propagandists will break out in red inflammations of hammers and sickles in an attempt to end Sanders’s campaign even though half of the country no longer remembers what they stand for. With his small donor independent campaign finance, Sanders has resilience that those subject to the big donor king-makers do not have.
The regular delegates hold the legitimacy of the voters. The message of a superdelegate hand on the balance does not speak to small-d democracy. Moreso if those superdelegates are not elected officials but are some non-elected special category of Democrat.
But superdelegates, being unpledged to a candidate (despite endorsements), are the wildcard in the post-primary season and in the convention.
The more pledged delegates Sanders has in comparison to Clinton and the closer the delegate totals are, Clinton’s superdelegate stash becomes the same albatross it was in 2008. And that is when the superdelegates start cutting deals with Sanders and flipping their votes. Which is why the firewall is necessary in the first place.
Organizing coattails can be a matter of organizing those who would be superdelegates in the next cycle but not superdelegates now. Especially if one is breaking into new geography; no one established to displace.
Excellent work with the poll analysis, fladem. I still would like to see the variance stated. And in Texas, there are still a lot of undecideds. But where does Texas come in the cascade of media narratives?
The unknown in Texas is the Hispanic vote. To win Bernie has to at least split it
Btw. Cnn had a cross tab on guns. Bernie was closest on the gun issue 48 42. I wonder if the issue is backfiring against Clinton among rural white dems
If you are following a 50 state strategy, then the comments like, “use watch lists” for gun restrictions is going to hurt outside inner metro areas. I’m sorry if that bothers people, but it is the truth. That places that much more reliance on minorities. If they don’t vote for her in the numbers necessary to make up the deficit,she goes down.
HRC, for all her “appeal ” to white working class in 2008 shot herself in the foot (so to speak) with that constituency this time around. Sanders, representing a rural state with hunting/gun ownership culture, side stepped it. Combine with economic populism and he has a chance with that vote.
R
Coverage in Dutch news with links to The Hill and CNN poll
○ BlogUSA16
As I thought, western Hispanics are more liberal given recent labor issues. Texas may not be so warm to Bernie–they tend to Conservadem. We’ll see.