My South Carolina Forecast

10 Comments

1. 

   on February 19, 2016 at 11:27 pm

   Cruz has failed to consolidate the Evangelical vote.  In 2008 Huckabee got 48%, but Santorum got 17% in 2012.

   Cruz is right now closer to Santorum’s number than Huckabee’s.

   I still don’t see how Cruz doesn’t break 20 though.  So I would guess
   Trump 31
   Cruz 24
   Rubio 18
   Bush 10
   Kasich 8
   Carson 7

   I wonder if Carson is being told by establishment types to stay in the race, because he is hurting Carson among evangelicals.

   • 

     TarheelDem on February 20, 2016 at 9:20 am

     Hurting Cruz?  Hurting Carson seems to be the continuing point of the Carson campaign at this point.

     Might also be told to stay in the race to marginally draw black voters from the Democratic primary and improve Republican exit polling among black voters.

     If it’s a play to diminish Clinton against Sanders, it might turn out to be a foolish move.  Clyburn has already rhetorically given himself some daylight to change to the winner if it’s Sanders either in the primary or in the nomination.

     • 

       on February 20, 2016 at 12:29 pm

       Meant to say hurting Cruz.

   • 

     TarheelDem on February 20, 2016 at 9:26 am

     There was a late break upward for Kasich.  I was just wondering where scared SC country clubbers would jump and thought that might be the source of the late break for Kasich–establishment types who reflect Lindsey Graham’s fear of this candidate field.  If they take 7 percent from Cruz, they rise to 15, he goes to 13.

     • 

       on February 20, 2016 at 1:20 pm

       Anything – I have point shift turns a Rubio 10 point lead over Kasic into a 15-15 tie.

       I don’t think people quite realize in multi-candidate fields how little it takes to significantly change the results

   • 

     seabe on February 20, 2016 at 9:54 am

     Those are my predictions, but I think Rubio-Cruz will be closer than your numbers.

   • 

     Marie3 on February 22, 2016 at 1:36 pm

     Here’s the explanation:

     The results in a state where 73 percent of voters identified as evangelical in exit polls are a clear signal that despite spending months trying, Cruz is far from locking down this core group of politically active Christians. The outright winner of the evangelical vote, according to exit polls, was Trump, who pulled in 33 percent of that segment.

     Cruz took 27 percent of the evangelical vote, followed by Rubio with 22 percent.

     Given a choice between a more strident racist that doesn’t do much “god speak” and an overt racist that does lots of “god speak,” a third goes with the strident racist and the other two have to split 59% of the evangelical vote as long as there other other contenders for those votes still in the race.  Dr. Ben is apparently staying in for a while and will continue to collect some of the fundie vote.

2. 

   eastcoastmoderate on February 20, 2016 at 4:20 pm

   Hillary wins by at least 20%

3. 

   Oui on February 20, 2016 at 4:23 pm

   Polls in Nevada promise a close tally. Letting the pitbull loose in Florida …

   Bill Clinton to fill in for Hillary at Fla. campaign rally | Feb. 15, 2016 |

   RIVIERA BEACH, Fla. (WPEC) – Democratic presidential candidate and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has canceled her trip to Palm Beach County, opting to campaign in Nevada instead. Her husband, former President Bill Clinton, will be stopping by a Riviera Beach campaign rally on behalf of his wife.

   The “Palm Beach Organizing Event with President Bill Clinton” is scheduled at the Port of Palm Beach Cruise Terminal. The former president’s visit falls on Presidents Day.

   The campaign instead sent Hillary to Nevada, where the presidential caucus is on Saturday, Feb. 20.

   ○ Bill Clinton implies Sanders backers to Dems as tea party is to GOP
   ○ Facing tight race, Hillary Clinton questions Sanders’ party ties

   • 

     eastcoastmoderate on February 20, 2016 at 7:20 pm

     Well, she saved Nevada. On to South Carolina!!!