Every once in a while, it pays to go back and read the notorious reality-based community comment again. Actually, today might be a good time to go back and read the whole October 17, 2004 New York Times Magazine article by Ron Suskind that made this quote famous.
The aide said that guys like me were “in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” … “That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” he continued. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”
It’s widely accepted at this point that Karl Rove was the “aide” who said we’re an empire now and we don’t have to make any effort to discern reality. But it’s the second half of the quote that interests me this morning.
And that’s because it seems to fairly well describe how Donald Trump has seized control of the Republican Party.
Go back to the first Republican debates and remember how stunned Jeb Bush and the other participants were when Trump began violating all the norms that had built up in the television age around how to behave in a presidential debate.
Trump would say things that were outrageous, implausible, risible, ridiculous, facially false and easily debunked…but this didn’t really separate him from his competitors. The whole Republican Party has adopted a post-truth ethos.
What Trump did differently was to “act” and “create new realities” in the sense that people weren’t talking so much about the reality of what he had said but about the fact that he had said it at all. The news cycles didn’t even make much pretense about discussing the merits of what Trump was claiming. They “studied” what he did.
And then he “acted again” which “created other new realities” that the media could discuss.
Try as they might to get their message out to the voters, Trump’s competitors couldn’t get any oxygen.
And it’s a nice turnabout, really, because it’s analogous to how the emergent left-wing blogosphere felt about questioning the decision to invade Iraq in the 2002-2003 period. Instead of dealing with penis jokes, the antiwar left had to deal with color-coded terror charts and an endless parade of phony disrupted terror plots (which are still a problem, by the way).
You can pretty much say anything if you have near total control of what people are going to talk about. By the time anyone might get around to calling you on your b.s., the audience has moved on to discussing the latest threat or outrage.
So, the Republican establishment (and Karl Rove, in particular) has been hoist on their petard here by Trump’s success. Jeb Bush didn’t get taken down like a crippled wildebeest because his policies had no discernible relationship to reality. He was eaten by hyenas because his $32.5 million per delegate campaign was “low energy.”
Jeb Bush just got contact lenses and got rid of the glasses. He wants to look cool, but it's far too late. 1% in Nevada!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 17, 2016
It took a very long time for anyone in the Republican establishment to understand why someone was consistently drinking their milkshake.
When they finally figured it out, they told Rubio he could play the same game by accusing Trump of having small hands and no penis.
We’ll see what happens in Cleveland. Maybe Trump can be denied the nomination in some kind of replay of the Brooks Brothers riot on steroids. But I think they let Trump get too much of a head start.
Sound familiar?
A bit of a derail here but TPM and it readers have been doing literary and poetic analysis of Trump’s attack tweets and it turns out Trump is using poetic devices to make his tweets zingier. That Jeb Bush tweet is a particularly good example of how he uses irregular meters, and a pretty classic “attack haiku”. The first sentence is a statement of fact, with no particular meter but mostly with strong accented syllables. The second line is the mockery, with more unaccented syllables – in this case almost anapestic meter, which is a typical comic verse meter in English (usually it’s more irregular in his tweets). Then finally a brief dismissive phrase, again mostly accented syllables.
Free verse techniques playing a key role in political success – who’d a thunk it?
That is beyond weird. But is shows that there is method to Trump’s madness… his run was never a whim, for example he had been cultivating the right wing fringes for several years
I was trying to think up something like this and it’s not easy, for me at least. Maybe he has a gift, but I suspect he’s hired some English majors to work on his tweets. Yes, I think there’s definitely some method to his madness. I also wonder – is it an accident/ really good luck that he focused on issues that could be used to take down his opponents, like birtherism (Cruz) and anchor babies (Rubio)? Did he have something ready for Scott Walker?
Nevada is the only three syllable word in the bunch.
Outstanding pick up. Don’t really see scansion, but more the strophe/antistrophe/epode of the Greek chorus in shorted form.
Naaaahhhhh…poetic forms grow out of the way people speak. He’s jes’ doin’ what comes natur’lly. That’s his hole card. He is sincere, in his own psychopathic way.
Like dis:
He don’t study none ‘a’them poetics!!!
He’s doin’ what comes natur’lly.
Bet on it.
It’s all him.
God help us.
Don’t study him. That’s what Booman’s post is all about. Nothing there to study. Nobody home. Not really. Just one big mirror reflecting on itself.
Resist him!!!
AG
Did somebody miss AG’s snark? I’m assuming his point is that that drawly song was written by the highly literate Irving Berlin.
No matter if somebody doesn’t get it. Not much real “snark” there, come to think of it. That tune popped into my head as I considered Trump’s act in light of some of the early posts on this thread.
He does what he does. Naturally. Wimping out over the “poetics” of what he does misses the point.
He speaks the language of the people who are following him.
Naturally.
Want to beat him?
Don’t overcomplicate.
Bringing a textbook to a knife fight just won’t do.
Bullies only understand one thing.
A beating.
AG
From Twitter:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Okay they got me. I thought some of them were willing to throw the election but none of them declared they’d never support Trump. Never Trump is dead.
The fact that these clowns wouldn’t disavow Trump-as-nominee during that onslaught last night tells me everything I need to know about the sincerity of the Republican party.
A great post, Booman. Thank you.
AG
Trump’s power comes from his being a celebrity.
He has spent 25 years and millions of dollars on becoming a celebrity. He’s had publicists since he was married to Ivana.
But it’s Trump’s statements that place him where he is in the GOP race. He is advantaged by his celebrity, but his turbocharged racism, nationalism and bluster are the things that put him on top. There are people more famous or equally famous as Donald.
He is on his way to winning the nomination because the GOP did nothing last summer. They decided to ignore him…mistake. Now, they have lowered themselves to his level…another mistake. The only person who has dealt The Donald a blow to his ego was President Obama at the Correspondents Dinner. The Donald had no come back and no one came to his defense. He was completely shut down.
He’s on his way because the GOP chose to field a collection of mini-trumps to run for the office. Worth a shot because at least GWB won; whereas the sober alternatives, Dole, McCain, and Romney, lost. One of the mini-trumps would have been given just enough cover not to look as stupid and insane as Palin to win the nomination, and with some large measure of luck would have won the general election. Then along came the real deal. Trump. Who proceeded to blow the cover of the minis and doesn’t need any stinkin PC to cover his ass. At least not during the primary season. If he’s an authentic fool, he won’t shift gears for the general.
I did watch most of O’Reilly’s post debate interview with Trump. Contrary to comments by liberals on this interview (and ignoring the repetitiveness of and boasting in much of what he says), the ease with which he can speak off the cuff to a reporter and his physical bearing is very much in line with notions of presidential.
he has the self-confidence of a sociopath.
AG
Or Andrew Jackson.
What’s the difference?
Nothing. We loved them then and love them now. Well, all of us don’t love or even like liars, cheaters, thieves, but a whole lot do and have no trouble voting for them.
Trump is a despicable public figure, and must be defeated in November.
But I confess to being a fan of his tweets. They are the worldwide apotheosis of his personality type, and they are truly funny. This Bush/Nevada 1% tweet is a great example. The cadence and the timing of the punchline- wonderful. It’s helped by the audaciousness of it all. He’ll go anywhere, say anything to attempt to humiliate his opponents. There’s a thrill in that. Who knows what he’ll say?
Winning Republican primaries in State after State after saying “Bush failed to defend us against 9/11, lied us into the Iraq war and is responsible for the mess in the Middle East now”- it’s the most remarkable campaign accomplishment I can imagine.
Irony. Trump is the only Republican that Clinton is beating. In the midst of the destruction of the Republican Party the Democratic Party is on a path to nominate the candidate who is losing to them.
Trump and Clinton are the two candidates with the worst likeability ratings. And Trump is gaining.
Why again are the Democrats sitting pretty?
I’m confused. You first say that Trump is the only R that Clinton “is beating.” Then you say the D party is nominating someone who is losing.
The polls I’ve seen have Hillary beating Trump decisively, but Sanders beating him even more decisively.
In whole, the general election will be rock-bottom ugly, but think of the things which have not been substantively revealed about Trump’s record which reveal his active hatred for the middle class, hatred which he has taken direct action to express. He’s directly fucked people over. It’s not the same thing as trying to explain some Clinton Foundation/Benghazi/email thing; those are triple bank shots which only convince people who dislike Clinton anyway.
If you think the campaign will turn against Clinton on trade deals and Wall Street, how does Trump forward those effectively when Hillary has come out against the TPP, and when Trump has come out against Dodd/Frank and for cutting taxes on the wealthy? The counterattack opportunities are plentiful.
And what of the non-white vote, which will be a bigger part of the 2016 electorate than ever, and will be turned out in massive numbers by Trump? The Donald isn’t getting tested on getting votes from that necessary portion of the electorate.
You propose that polls in the spring, or even summer, are dispositive. The polls in 2012 were razor-close throughout the early part of the year, with Romney leading in most of them. President Obama ended up winning handily. Campaigns matter, particularly in relation to elections with high turnout.
The best electoral viability test is the one happening in the States right now. It’s hard for Bernie to make the argument that he could get more votes in November if he can’t get more votes in the primaries and caucuses. If he rallies, then the argument opens up for him to mke that case.
Also, you did not mention that Trump is winning over a party composed of majority men. The majority of the Dem party are women – I predict the gender gap will be bigger than ever in November.
Agreed- thanks for that important addition.
The whole arena in which we see Trump is today’s Republican Party. Even there, as strong as he is, he has the support of no more than half of registered republicans.
From a 2015 Pew study of party affiliation:
“Based on 2014 data, 39% identify as independents, 32% as Democrats and 23% as Republicans. … “When the partisan leanings of independents are taken into account, 48% either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; 39% identify as Republicans or lean Republican. The gap in leaned party affiliation has held fairly steady since 2009, when Democrats held a 13-point advantage (50% to 37%).
So when we’re looking at Trump’s devoted following, that’s 1/2 of 37% of American voters, less than 20%.
I’m certainly not counseling complacency, the man is dangerous; but when you look at his wild popularity, that’s about what it amounts to. If he gets to the national, it will be more, especially against Hillary, a uniter, not a divider” (of Republicans), but I don’t see Trump as a strong candidate.
Sorry, I forgot to give the link for the Pew study:
http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/
The head to head polls at this stage of the election cycle are largely meaningless.
6 lead changes between March and November in 2004:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2004/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_kerry-939.html
3 lead changes between March and November in 2008:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/14/08-us-pres-ge-mvo_n_724882.html
2012 had no lead changes, but it got awfully close in periods:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama
What always puzzled me about the “aides” comments was this:
“That’s not the way the world really works anymore,…”
What on God’s green earth gave him the idea that the world is any different than it ever was in thousands of years of civilization and the empires contained within? Bush v. Gore?
One needs only to look at Alexander the Great or Genghis Khan to learn what an empire actually looks like. We are no empire, never have been and never will be.
“We are no empire, never have been and never will be.”
That’s highly debatable. I would say we are a new kind of empire, having learned from the experience of the old ones, particularly the British empire, that the more extensive the empire, the more expensive the emopire. The costs of maintaining it become crushing, they outweigh the profits. (The British were only the latest and biggest example of this problem; it has happened to every other empire, whether Greek, Roman, Spanish, Poruguese, French, Dutch.) AFter WW II it was found that there are other ways to control countries, making them in effect “colonies” without actually having to adminsiter them, etc. That’s what we have done, and it worked great for a while. But now we see the same problems. The military expenses, the economic competition, and the political costs, both foreign and domestic, are becoming too high.
“But now we see the same problems. The military expenses, the economic competition, and the political costs, both foreign and domestic, are becoming too high.”
70 years+ (post WWII) of meddling in the affairs of foreign countries does not make us an empire. And that history itself shows that it’s not much of a plan for imperialism.
The only thing different now is that a nation’s wealth has become unmoored from its nation. You can’t finance an empire with PACs…not yet at least.
Headed towards a Gibson dystopia at this pace, perhaps.
Vassal states are hardly a modern development. Think about the city-states of Italy, particularly Venice, which at one time controlled the northern half of the Mediterranean. That’s setting aside the Holy Roman Empire, which technically still exists.
(insert Ozymandias text)
Good analysis. The “imperial” angle is thought-provoking.
Another way of making a similar point is to say that Trump gets inside his rivals OODA loop.
I love the Suskind quote because it’s such a supreme example of stupidity masquerading as profound wisdom. Sure you can sneer at the “reality-based community”, if you have the power, but no matter how much you do it, it’s still only about power. Reality remains reality. And reality has surely crept up on them. It’s precisely because they long ago lost all concern for reality that they are now so vulnerable to Trump’s bullshit, and all they’re left to fight it with is more bullshit.
“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away.” — Philip K. Dick
Because reality never goes away, it’s always ready and waiting to bite Karl Rove and his ilk in the ass.
I finally figured out the secret of Donald Trump. It was Marco Rubio who made me realize something that I was previously unaware of. In the light of Little Marco’s attacks on His Donaldness, it is now exquisitely clear to me that Trump’s success in the broadcast media was genetically predetermined. We know that some people are born to be great athletes, some to be great intellects. Donald Trump was born to excel in the broadcast media. Is there anybody in all of human history whose glove size has become the object of so much national scrutiny? The man was simply born with “wee paws” for station identification.
(Yeah, I know, nobody born after 1965 has any idea what that was about.)
O. J. Simpson.
Good point.
BOOOO (yeah, I’m that old)
The title of this post reads like a headline from The Onion. And a real item from The Onion about The Donald….
Crikey:
Rubio is doomed.
Yes, people don’t like yapping little dogs.