On top of all the political difficulties getting the UK Parliament to pass legislation for a Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon pointed out Scotland has a de facto veto and said she’ll call on the Scottish Parliament to use it if necessary. Holyrood probably doesn’t have enough pro-Brexit MSPs to make a reservation for brunch, so that will be an easy pass.
Technically, this wouldn’t actually stop Brexit but it would mean all EU laws would continue to apply in Scotland, and make Brexit pretty much pointless. Immigrants could still come to England via Scotland, products would still have to conform to EU safety standards to be sold in Scotland, etc.
Essentially it means no Brexit without Disunion.
Doesn’t appear so from the article. “Withholding consent” sounds much like those sternly worded letters to the GWB administration that Congressional Democrats were so fond of issuing.
However, it would be another step closer to independence for Scotland. None of this is going to happen overnight. Cameron plans remain at 10 Downing for months and no work to Leave will be done on his watch. The EU can demand that the UK leave immediately, but it all has to be done according to Hoyle and that rule book has yet to be written. Expect a lot of lawyers and economists are going to have plenty of well paid work for the next two to three years.
Withholding consent does have an effect; it’s not just a sternly worded letter. Without consent EU law doesn’t change in Scotland, putting it roughly in the situation of Norway, which pretty much follows all EU law without formally being a member.
Westminster could potentially revoke the devolution, but that pretty much makes devolution into a sham. IMO disunion would be inevitable then, which is still more or less my point.
Agreed there will be a lot of work for lawyers and economists of all types.
One step at a time.
Everything is in limbo until Article 50 is invoked. Scotland withholding consent can’t override Article 50 or stop an exit once it begins. For the moment Scotland is stuck.
Brexit (if it happens) will be a done deal before Scotland can get an independence referendum.
correct, and the EU can only deal with Scotland as an applicant once it is recognised as an independent state. However once it IS independent, membership should be little more than a formality as it already is compliant with all EU requirements – the acquis communautaire – provided there is political good will. The Spanish may be reluctant, but for the EU as a whole, membership of Scotland would be a good consolation prize for losing the UK.
The problem is Scottish referendum voters will need some reassurance that membership after independence is not going to be a problem. But that can be done by a political re-assurance – rather than a legal one – once the UK is out without upsetting sovereign sensibilities too much…
The one thing the EU may require is that Scotland join the Euro. However that may be an imperative for Scotland in any case if “The Bank of England” refuses to cooperate with sharing Sterling.
Why would the Bank of England ever contemplate sharing the pound with an independent, EU Scotland? There’s nothing it for Britain (or whatever that dismembered country will be called). Scotland will be required to adopt the Euro, no question about it, that’s if it ever really becomes independent. England and Wales without Scotland are pretty meager fare. Brexit will be stopped in its tracks in Westminster, whether legally or not, and Sturgeon’s grandstanding will look very silly in retrospect.
I agree Brexit will never get through Westminster, but Sturgeon will get credit, not mockery, for having helped stopped it by throwing up two substantive roadblocks. I don’t see how you can call what she’s doing “grandstanding” anyway. She’s pushing for policy outcomes she wants which have respectable support in Scotland. You can say Disunion would be a bad thing, but she’s pushing for it honestly – this isn’t grandstanding.
If she indeed succeeds in blocking Brexit, she won’t be able to so easily go on to a second referendum stating that Scotland wants independence from the UK and to stay in the EU. If Westminster blocks Brexit somehow, there will be little support from the EU for Scotland to join as an independent country. She has already begun to put out feelers for membership as an independent country but you can be sure that the EU is not in any way going to encourage this proposition which would only make negations with London all the more difficult. The UK’s continued membership of the EU would also temper the calls for Scottish independence. The EU: “Why don’t you just calm down and stay in the UK.’
What would you call the UK anyway without Scotland? ‘Elizabeth wears the crown in London, the jewel that makes it shine is Scotland.’
Like the others in this drama, she’s in a Catch 22 position. i.e. if A succeeds (Remain), there will be no B (independence), and if A fails (Leave), B a huge question mark, but it won’t come quickly or easily.
Agreed Sturgeon wants independence and EU membership but is likely to only get one. I still think she’ll end up looking very good even if she doesn’t get everything she wants. It’s a pretty tall order to try to get both and I don’t think it reflects poorly on her if she can’t carry it all out.
Booman Tribune ~ Checkmate for Brexit?
The Kingdom of England and Wales and North Ireland.
Or possibly The Kingdom of England and Wales, if North Ireland also acts on the popular will to stay in the EU (and have free movement with the rest of Ireland). There has been rumblings.
Negotiating the terms of the UK/EU divorce: two years allowed for this once the UK formally invokes its wish to withdraw.
Holding another referendum on Scotland’s withdrawal from the UK: could happen within a few months, probably. If the Scots vote to dissolve the Union, there would have to be negotiations with Westminster to work out the particulars.
That doofus Cameron isn’t going to preside over the dissolution of the Union, but his successor will.
Where did you get this?
“Within two years” is the most optimistic projection from Alex Salmond. He and Sturgeon are both using 2 years because a) they know how long it takes to jump through all the hoops to get a referendum and b) neither UK Parliament nor the EU will be helpful with their independence efforts.