I originally wrote the following (slightly edited here) as a reply to Booman’s post A Contrary View on Trump’s Big Day. Overall I found it a thoroughly well-reasoned post, but I disagreed with one important part of it. Here it is.
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I am now beginning to wonder…is Trump’s ongoing success “despite” almost total mass media disapproval, or is he being successful because of that solid wall of media opposition?
HMMMmmmmmmmm…
Read on.
Booman wrote:
…what Trump did in both Mexico and Arizona will be filtered through the media before most people become aware of it at all. And, overall, the media hated it. Therefore, what Trump did in both Mexico and Arizona will be filtered through the media before most people become aware of it at all. And, overall, the media hated it. Therefore, despite demonstrating that he’s capable of standing on a stage with a foreign head of state without being an imbecile, and despite crafting his immigration speech in a very effective way, few people will experience those accomplishments. Instead, they’ll hear how he wimped out in Mexico and lied about whether he discussed who will pay for the wall. They’ll hear that he’s reverted to a hardline (and unpopular) immigration stance. They’ll see his speech compared to a Klan rally or Hitler speech. They’ll read about Latino Trump-supporters jumping ship. And the folks who get positive reviews will be the folks who only consume right-wing media, and those folks are mostly in Trump’s corner anyway.
But Booman…that sort of thing is exactly what has been happening in modern elections since…oh, I don’t know, since JFK/Nixon when you get right down to it. That is the fix, or at least the primary fixing mechanism, and with the possible exception of the Jimmy Carter/Gerald Ford campaign it has worked very well.
Until now.
It has not worked on Trump and I do not believe that it will work. Why? Because the information revolution has had one primary result…many, many voters no longer trust the media, on plentiful evidence. In fact, many voters actively distrust it. Ditto government in general, starting with the Feds and going right on down to as local as you want to go.
The media will report that he did things. It’s the job that they do and they cannot afford to stop doing it. But…their opinions about it? Whether expressed straight on (as straight as the media ever get, anyway) or subliminally…headlines, tones of voice, facial expressions, body language, images, etc…whatever they say is not only effectively ignored, but for many people it is seen as something to be disbelieved. Actively disbelieved, as in taking action in whatever directions the media say that they should not act. This is the real secret of Trump’s success, and it will quite likely be the reason for Clinton’s defeat if it happens.
A large group of Americans now believe that:
1-The mass media are owned lock, stock and barrel by Big Corp.
2-On huge amounts of evidence it is becoming more and more clear that said Big Corp not only does not have the interests of the American people in mind, it is in truth a totally unelected, internationalist group that does not put the welfare of the U.S. or any other nation before that of its own members.
Enter Trump; enter HRC. Trump understands this set of public opinion movements bone deep, and his astounding success so far is due to his success in expressing that idea publicly. HRC is stuck…she cannot unload her corporate baggage no matter what she says or does. She is stuck with it. Thus the popular vote outcome of this election…again, barring unforeseeable events including electronic vote fraud… will hinge on a three-part question.
What percentage of the voting public is:
A-Smart enough to see through the media fix.
B-What percentage of that percentage is angry enough and/or dumb enough to vote for Trump?
and
C-What percentage of that percentage is so fed up with the system that they will not vote at all?
Combine those questions with the electoral vote savvy of the Clinton campaign and you have a horserace right to the finish line.
Bet on it.
AG
P.S. Plus or course the following ever-present and rarely publicly discussed wild card. From a good-sized outlier to the mainstream media, U.S. News and World Report:
A Candidate’s Death Could Delay or Eliminate the Presidential Election
The presidential election could be delayed or scrapped altogether if conspiracy theories become predictive and a candidate dies or drops out before Nov. 8. The perhaps equally startling alternative, if there’s enough time: Small groups of people hand-picking a replacement pursuant to obscure party rules.
The scenarios have been seriously considered by few outside of the legal community and likely are too morbid for polite discussion in politically mixed company. But prominent law professors have pondered the effects and possible ways to address a late-date vacancy.
“There’s nothing in the Constitution which requires a popular election for the electors serving in the Electoral College,” says John Nagle, a law professor at the University of Notre Dame, meaning the body that officially elects presidents could convene without the general public voting.
“It’s up to each state legislature to decide how they want to choose the state’s electors,” Nagle says. “It may be a situation in which the fact that we have an Electoral College, rather than direct voting for presidential candidates, may prove to be helpful.”
—snip—
OOOOOOOOoooo…!!!
I repeat:
“It may be a situation in which the fact that we have an Electoral College, rather than direct voting for presidential candidates, may prove to be helpful.”
The question remains…helpful to whom?
There are trillions…more, unfathomable power and riches…at stake.
If the Controllers really begin to believe that they have totally lost control of this (s)election?
All bets are off.
Bet on that as well.
Watch.
Further leftiness assurances of an HRC landlside?
Riiiiight…
She is obviously the better-qualified candidate no matter whether you agree or disagree with her positions and history…which fact means absolutely nothing in the beauty contest/popularity contest that we laughingly call “A Presidential Campaign,” something that has entirely been created by the media since the Nixon/JFK campaign.
It may be time to pay the piper.
AG
That postponed/delayed election scenario is a real stretch. Contrary to the generally accepted understanding of a presidential elections, presidents aren’t directly elected. Electors bound to a candidate are chosen, but they are technically free to vote for whomever they want. However, as in 1912 when the GOP VP nominee died a few days before the election, party elites would quickly name a replacement for a candidate ineligible before the election.
Entirely possible that the electors would split after the election with a large enough faction unwilling to go along with the named substitute, and no candidate could reach the required EC majority. Then the decision would default to the House that would choose from among the top three. The Senate would pick up the responsibility to choose the VP, but only from the top two finishers; so, someone would get a majority of the votes and be the VP — and possibly the acting President if the House fails to do so.
This whole election is a stretch, Marie. I do not believe that anything is off the table as far as not allowing Trump to win is concerned.
Nothing.
AG
Yes, but one could drive oneself mad constructing endless hypothetical scenarios; none of which have more than a smidgen of possibility of coming to be. “Black Swans” that actually come into being are almost (always?) never foretold. That’s why they’re called “black swans.”
No question that a majority of the electorate is totally disgusted with their choice of Hillary or Donald. But they aren’t making any substantial moves to Johnson or Stein either because they aren’t being viewed as either viable or preferable. Very different from 1992 when before his July implosion, Perot was actually in the lead because he stood for something that was popular enough (and easy for Perot to articulate) and that GHWB and WJC opposed. Johnson’s “everybody on their own” only works for a small number of people with delusions of their individual power and worth. Stein’s grabbag is too large for more than a few people to take in what she’s running on.
I think you are giving them too much credit here, they are not just indifferent to the welfare of any nation and its citizens but they seem unable to resist actively thwarting our ability to fashion a dignified life from the crumbs remaining. They are obsessed beyond venality. It is almost vampirism.
Shaun…
“Almost” skirts the boundaries of the issue, really. They are dead…dead to all human feelings at the very least, and quote possibly not human as far as their corporate existence is concerned…and they are apparently immortal.
Meanwhile, the Renfields of the media and government subsist on the insect-sized crumbs granted them by their masters.
So it goes…
All legends are merely poetic pictures of the reality of things.
Bet on it.
AG
So our mythology of vampirism is a warning, not an anachronism? Here’s a modern taste:
Thinking about that now whenever I click on PayPal.
Yup.
Me too.
AG
The super delegates and the Democratic Establishment saddled the nation with this candidate. A candidate with enough baggage to outfit a safari. A candidate with 20 yrs of media animus. They all knew about her negatives for years, decades. But rigged the system so that other, more viable candidates couldn’t get the oxygen to offer a real choice.
Of course anyone pointing that out was labeled a DINO, using GOP talking points against her, and she was the best candidate against the GOP. She is tough enough and smart enough to counter the GOP shitstorm.
Yeah, right.
Sanders almost made it (showing her weakness in the General), but by locking up the Supers before the first primary vote was cast, it was doomed. So for one thing, no Super delegate should commit until the last primary is over. Then they can step in and push the convention in another direction; if they dare.
If Trump loses, the talk has been about rebuilding or replacing the GOP. If Hillary loses, then the Democratic Party should be done away with for political malpractice.
And hang on, our democracy (or what’s left) will be in danger. You can thank the DNC for that as well.
Ridge
Precisely.
Thank you, RC.
Right on point.
AG
Interesting article in Salon that asserts the Dem mouthpieces are blaming the usual suspects (DFH) for her loss.
Then goes on to analysis Humphrey in 1968 and Gore in 2000.
The 50 state Wash Post poll is supposed to calm the waters, but everyone is feeling uneasy.
R
——–excerpt——-
‘What we know about the defeats of 1968 and 2000 is that the left-liberal coalition that generally supports the Democrats in presidential elections was badly divided in both those years and the Democratic nominee did not do enough to heal the rift. Humphrey simply couldn’t do enough, although he fought like hell, against impossible odds. Gore coasted along with an apparent lead, hoping that nothing would go wrong, and created the conditions for the ugliest defeat in political history. Which of those examples will Hillary Clinton emulate?…”
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/06/hillarys-humphrey-gore-problem-stop-finding-excuses-for-defeat-in-ad
vance-democrats/
“Which of those examples will Hillary Clinton emulate?…”
Both, apparently.
Simultaneously!!!
AG
analysis=analyze
Jeeezzz, need to slow down posting.
As for both simultaneously, that is why her trust rating are so low. Its good political policy to be “flexible” in one’s dealings; but not to show it so overtly and for so long a time. Gives one a reputation that’s hard to shake.
R
Can’t shake shaking.
Too complicated.
AG
And too obvious.
AG