I feel like I have posted this 50 times.
Quinippiac is out with a new poll. Clinton leads 48-43 in a 2 way race, and leads 41-39 in a four way race. The difference is entirely among those under 34:
Two way: Clinton 55, Trump 34
Four way: Clinton 31, Johnson 29, Trump 26, Stein 15
Approval
18-34
Trump 21 positive, 68 negative
Clinton 36 positive, 58 negative
I have longed believe the Johnson and Stein vote will collapse after the debates, and Clinton will get to 10+ as a result.
Another note from polling has cropped up: Trump’s numbers among Hispanics really aren’t that much worse than Romney’s. I exchanged notes with Kyle Klondik of crystal ball, and really the only swing state where it looks like the Hispanic shift from ’12 matters is Florida, where it is worth about 3 points. Every other major state is less than 1.
Cnn has number suggesting a very real enthusiasm problem for Dems. Trump is up 4 among LV in both FL and OH. Selzer also had Trump up 4 in Ohio. There are A rated pollsters.
You can argue the most important number was PPP’s VA number showing Clinton up 6. Trump cannot win without one of PA, CO or VA. There is no good evidence he has breached that firewall yet.
I think I am denial about how close this is. I do not believe it will last.
Oh, there’s always a point in presidential elections when the polls tighten or flip to the other party before diverging and flipping back or the flip strengthens. That came in the earlier days of September for McCain. After that he was always a goner. It came early to late October for Romney which in retrospect suggests to me that Benghazi did have some resonance for voters but it faded by the end of October.
VA has held for HRC for so long that it doesn’t look dicey to me. In this topsy-turvy election cycle, I’ve been looking at Senate races for inverse-coattails. Bennett is in good shape in CO. As is Portman in OH. At this point, I’ve put FL in Trump’s column.
McCain spiked after the GOP convention.
The Senate is starting to look unlikely to me.
True, and then voters got a better look at Palin.
The optimistic projections on the Senate seemed to me based on HRC coattails which may have been wishful thinking. Ayotte should be weaker against Hassan than what was expected and it remains dicey for McGinty against Toomey. Although, I’d guess ticket splitting more likely in those two states than OH and have no objective reason for that guess.
Those positive numbers for HRC and Trump suggest that a strong third party challenger could actually have taken it this time. But such a candidate doesn’t exist. What’s odd is that, based on polling numbers, Trump does better in some states with Johnson on the ballot and worse in others with him. There should be some rhyme or reason for that but haven’t identified what it could be.
Working off the RCP averages: Assuming a 75% collapse in current third party support, Clinton would need to win 57.6% of the freed-up voters in Ohio and 56.9% of them in Florida to overcome Trump’s current leads.
Should be doable, especially given Trump’s pathetic ground organization. But if anything goes wrong and scapegoats become sought, let it be noted that Johnson has triple Stein’s support in both states.
Any thoughts on why the under 34s find the Libertarians more appealing than the Greens?
Perhaps you’re right that the debates will shore up Clinton’s numbers. I’ve always considered a 10% margin improbable due to levels of polarization and HRC’s unpopularity.
Any thoughts on why the under 34s find the Libertarians more appealing than the Greens?
Yes, but it’s too complex to put in a response comment.
Brand recognition. Nobody knows who Johnson and Stein are.
But they will – and I am not sure either one is ready for this. They will get attention over the next 45 days – and I am guessing they are not ready for it.
The following from The Hill would be odd: Clinton ally offers money for information on Trump
Suggests to me that the internals being viewed by HRC insiders isn’t good. And that they run out of dirt on Trump that they can make stick. Or that Brock just has so much damn money in the pro-HRC coffers that he throw offers like this out there and hope it puts some fear in Trumpsters.
I think it is the latter – they are swimming in money. Why wouldn’t a Clinton do that given the stuff the Bush people did in ’92.
I hear the people around the campaign are still pretty confident – of course this is all second and third hand information.
But from where I sit I don’t think the Clinton people know quite how to respond.
Pulling money out of VA and CO was hubris in an extreme form. Reminiscent of Rove throwing money away in California and New Jersey in 2000.
Just really fucking dumb.
Or Brock just hedging his bets?
It’s more difficult than it once was to read the state of a campaign through its spending decisions. Have to keep in mind that the campaign does have limited funds even with the joint DNC/Victory fund. If the campaign spending in CO and VA was concentrated in media adverts, the Pacs,Superpacs, etc. can cover that base for her and if the state Dem parties are in good GOTV shape, no need for HRC’s team to spend where it’s not needed.
It’s a complicated formula, but I personally wouldn’t pull budgeted monies out of CO or VA to put it into FL or OH.
Doe a win in Colorado depend on increasing the Dem Hispanic numbers over, say 2014? Would not bet the farm on that.
Technically no. Although voter participation across the board increases in presidential election years; so, it probably will go up.
Hickenlooper won re-election in 2014 (iirc his competitor was hard right, if not loony hard right), but only by 3.5% and third parties took 4.5%. In the 2014 Senate race, third parties took 5.5%, but Gardner won because he wears that normal looking and sounding mask which is what it takes to shift a state like CO to the GOP. Trump can’t get that mask to fit, although he has tried to do so.
No recent polling on the CO Senate race. July/Aug, Bennet was >50% and leading by 15-16%; so, guess this one moved into “done deal” territory — and that’s probably before CO voters got a good look at his opponent. This one will upstream to the POTUS race, but HRC’s winning margin will be less than Bennet’s.
Last 3 polls, from VERY good pollsters in OH are Trump +4, +4 and +3.
Something to scare yourself with: Clinton’s margin in Michigan is smaller than Trump’s in Florida and Ohio.
She’s still good in MI, but her team is too arrogant and nasty to do what’s really needed. So, they’ll keep beating on young people to show up and vote for her.
I put OH in Trump’s column a couple of weeks ago, and IA is looking like it will follow. Pathetic that anyone could even consider voting for him.
If you are right and Clinton wins VA, CO and PA Trump has one way to win:
Florida (leads by 4 in last poll)
NV (trails by .67)
NC (effectively tied)
NH (Clinton leads by 1)
Maine CD
That is 270 to 268.
It is an inside straight, but at this moment it is possible.
What’s team Clinton’s plan to prevent that inside straight?
Did I neglect to mention that I put FL in the Trump column at the same time I put OH there. All provisional, but I like to run with worst case scenario.
How things can come back to bite one in the butt — in her attempt to win NH after being solidly behind for months, HRC had all the NH Dem (censor myself) female politicians line up with her on a stage. I noted that the optics on that were dreadful. Then Bernie blew through his poll numbers on election day. Anger among voters can linger for longer than politicians recognize. I still expect NH to go blue, but re-elect Ayotte, but it’s way too close to call at this point. Oh, and NH is one place where a potential Plan B doesn’t exist
The key to NV and NC for HRC is the same. Same tactic wouldn’t hurt in AZ either, but suspect Ford’s move would make it ineffective in AZ.
To see HRC’s fate possibly reduced down to results from a ME CD, NH, NV, and NC shouldn’t be shocking. She’s wasn’t a good candidate or choice last year and irrefutable lies and obfuscations from her team this week has made her an even worse candidate. If she’s not hiding a chronic and serious medical condition, she’ll easily get through the next few weeks (and months and years afterwards) without another odd incident. If she is, then she rolling the dice in getting through the next few weeks without one. One more and Trump wins — and the Clintons, DNC, Obama, and her booster club will be to blame.
Well, Ford’s announcement of their small car production line being moved to Mexico is unfortunate. The US factory will change over to a higher % profit vehicle line.
The US factory will change over to a higher % profit vehicle line.
For how long before that factory is off-shored? If Trump had a minimally competent campaign team and listened to them, this could flip MI. But not seeing a shred of evidence of any minimal competence.
○ CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL
A Tight Race for President
September 9-13, 2016
Bi-partisan backing of own candidate means votes by Democrats and Republicans are pretty much sealed. Trump seems to have best chance with new and young voters plus gaining majority of Independents. (Sanders strong showing)