It’s true that one of the most powerful Democrats in Washington DC, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, is a Mormon. Yet, on the whole, the Church of Latter Day Saints and their flock are more aligned with the right than the left, and that’s reflected in how they’ve voted in American elections. These lines are getting blurred by Donald Trump, however, and the Washington Post has another column on how it’s possible that Utah will cast its Electoral College votes for Hillary Clinton.
Democratic strategists aren’t quite bullish on the idea. They see Georgia and Arizona as more likely targets. But there is something more satisfying about these Utah articles than the (less common) articles about Trump’s difficulty in other red states.
In Georgia, for example, if Trump’s only problem were his naked appeals to white nationalism, we wouldn’t be talking about him potentially losing the state. It’s really only his boorishness towards women that puts a state like Georgia in play. But, in Utah, people are rejecting him for not just some but for all of the right reasons. Mormons are deeply offended by Trump’s characterization of Muslims and his plans to keep them out of the country. They are pro-immigrant and pro-immigration reform. Because of their extensive missionary work in foreign lands, they’re put off by his narrow parochial claims to American exceptionalism and national greatness. And, unlike a good segment of the Southern Baptists, their social conservatism isn’t negotiable and, yes, Trump’s treatment toward and attitude about women is a major problem for them.
Precisely because their social conservatism isn’t negotiable, Hillary Clinton isn’t polling any better than Trump in Utah. They’re both stuck below thirty percent in recent polls. If Clinton is going to win the state it will be because the right is split three ways between Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and independent (and Mormon) Evan McMullin. Surprisingly, considering he’s only on the ballot in eleven states, McMullin is at least as much of a threat to win Utah as Clinton is, and it’s really looking like a three-way race with Johnson poised to act as a spoiler.
Of course, most of the focus has been on the possibility of Clinton winning the Beehive State, but it’s almost as significant that Trump might lose it to McMullin. Either way, he’s denied six Electoral College votes he surely cannot afford to lose.
However it comes out, it’s become clear that the Mormon community isn’t prepared to go along for the ride with Trumpism, and that will create a post-election schism within the GOP. It’s another sign that Humpty Dumpty won’t so easily be put back together again and that the Republican Party will struggle to either share in governing or in forming a coherent opposition party.
It’s interesting that the non-crazy Republicans are still completely blind to the fact that the Republican meltdown is uniquely caused by their own hate and incompetence – Democrats don’t have anything to do with their problems.
Ross D – http://www.vox.com/conversations/2016/10/14/13283320/donald-trump-ross-douthat-republican-party-elec
tion-2016
He completely misdiagnoses their problem. The Republicans are simply incompetent. What is happening to Trump right now was fully available to every other Republican candidate last year or the year before that- none of this is new or unknown or unknowable with some basic opp research, which none of these people even considered doing. Obama or Hillary would have gotten these goods and found a way to get it out without their fingerprints. Republicans are so far into their own bubble reality they don’t even know the basics of their profession anymore. That’s the real problem and combined with their 50 year strategy to exploit white racism this set of circumstances was bound to happen.
Steve Schmitt – http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/14/13272322/republicans-after-trump-alt-right
Completely wrong on this – ‘ You have basically warring tribes that subordinate the national interest to their tribal interest.’
Only one tribe is doing that and has done that for decades.
McMullin is ex CIA and his plan is to make it so no one gets 270 then win the election in the house. Longshot but you never know with CIA.
At least be available in the event. His former employers seem often to assign goalkeepers even for ‘long shots’. Interesting insight, thanks.
Heres how it works: House picks among top 3 pres candidates. Senate picks among top 2 VP candidates. So if house cant pick, VP becomes pres. His idea is republicans hate kaine too much and Dems hate pence too much so he becomes the compromise candidate.
I think in the case of anti-muslim hysteria, Mormons are informed by the direct experience of religious discrimination within personal memory of many members of the church.
My wife and I visited the site of the Yuma Territorial Prison in 2015 and the main exhibit room has a wall with portraits of notable prisoners. Among them are Senator Jeff Flake’s great-grandfather imprisoned in the late 1800’s for polygamy.
The church’s history includes being driven at gunpoint out of the eastern US. (Along with far less savory events like the Mountain Meadows Massacre ).
Finally the rigid association of the Mormon Church with right-wing GOP politics has been by no means a constant: Morris, Stuart and Mark Udall are all Mormons as is Bruce Babbit, former governor of Arizona and (along with Mo, who was my congressman, I’m proud to say) a far more credible presidential candidate than the GOP’s current nominee.
Wasn’t it abortion that put the Mormon’s in teh Republican camp? I don’t see THAT changing. May be why the Third Party might win.
And as a group they are some of the most decent hardworking people I have ever worked with. I know they are more progressive than their fundamentalist brethren but as a religion they live their social justice ideals more than about any group i know. There is a reason that the “housing first” movement to end homelessness found its greatest success in Utah.
All of this is to say that it doesn’t surprise me at all that as a group Mormons are rejecting all that Trump stands for.
As a side note, Obama neutralizing Huntman by asking him to be ambassador to China remains one of his most calculating and effective political moves.
Slightly off-topic but this comment actually makes me uncomfortable.
“As a group they are some of the most decent hardworking people I have ever worked with.” A subjective generalization about a collective personality trait of a religious group — but a positive one, so it’s okay; nobody says anything. But what if you’d had the opposite subjective reaction (for whatever statistically-insignificant anecdotal reasons)? Suppose you came on here and said “As a group they are some of the meanest, laziest people I’ve ever worked with?” Wouldn’t that be a smear?
I’m not making trouble — just thinking out loud. (And obviously I have nothing against Mormons, or you.) I’m just saying, a “slur” is a negative broad-brush statment, but is it a slur because it’s negative or because it’s broad-brush? Don’t we object when people say Jews are “good with money” or black people “have rhythm” or Latinos are good fighters because they’re “hot-tempered”? Once you open that door — talking about entire groups like they share the most variable human characteristics — aren’t we already in trouble?
Obviously this is a huge topic and (for example) the African-American community has wrestled for decades with questions of ethnic heritage vs. assimilation as have so many other demographic groups. I’m just saying, a flag went up in my head when I read this innocuous, well-meaning remark about how hard-working the Mormons are “as a group.”
Some huge blind spots around these days.
That’s it? Just snide dismissal? Entire books have been written and courses taught around this idea.
No. Not dismissal. You are correct in the principle. Just saying there have been other targets of categorization that were found perfectly acceptable.
Hm. I’m trying to tease this all apart. I’m Jewish, so am familiar with being part of a group that is variously claimed to have both positive and negative characteristics. Every time I see certain of my wife’s relatives, they start in with some routine about how Jews are like (fill in the blank): positive characteristics, but still I feel as though I’m being treated like a cipher instead of an individual.
Apropos Mormons: I grew up in a southern California town with a large Mormon population. I’ve lived on the west coast my whole life and have known Mormons wherever I’ve lived. I have professional colleagues who are Mormons.
I do understand the hazards of assigning characteristics to groups of people instead of treating individuals as individuals. I would also state that like the commenter up-thread, all the Mormons I’ve known personally have been really decent people. Having said that, I would further state that I am troubled by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints as an organization, for various reasons that I won’t elaborate here.
It’s complicated.
What Booman and commenters have written here is very much in line with what I’ve heard from a Mormon friend/colleague who, like Harry Reid, is politically a liberal Democrat.
Recently, community member dada referenced this sentiment, and now the subject has validated that sentiment:
Jerry Springer ✔ @jerryspringer
Hillary Clinton belongs in the White House. Donald Trump belongs on my show.
7:55 PM – 26 Sep 2016
These hoped for schisms strike me as wishful thinking for the most part. Trump is a black swan – I doubt there is lasting damage to the social issue coalition within the GOP.
I am in China for two weeks – a happy exile from the most dispiriting of all elections.
Beijing I have not been to since 1982. It is hard to believe it is the same place. An uncomfortable truth is that free trade unquestionably benefited China and other developed countries.
Stiglitz suggested that elites essentially lied about free trade to Americans about 5 months ago, and I believe there is truth in that. Free trade was a good thing for most of humanity. Some measures of global income inequality have declined over the last 25 years -it is within the developed world where it has increased.
The American Working Class was sacrificed to accomplish this – and I think history will find the deception more obvious than it is now.
The real fight in the future is between the technocrats and the Democrats. That is the long term threat China poses – just leave the smart ones to run things like they do in China, because Democracy doesn’t really work anyway.
As odious as Trump is, the technocrats are far more dangerous to democracy and individual liberty than he is.
Not sure Clinton is going to get to the 11.7 I predicted – but I think she might. The issue is the red state polling where clinton is essentially at Obama’s ;12 number (see Texas). It may be Clinton has consolidated her base faster, and what is out are people who will in the end vote for Trump of Johnson. If that is true the win will be closer to 7 and the 11 I think it will be.
we are already getting a preview of post-election politics; leading republicans are already pretending that Trump never existed.
“unlike a good segment of the Southern Baptists, their social conservatism isn’t negotiable” — that reminds me of a joke.
Why do you always invite two Baptists to go fishing with you? Because if you invite one, he’ll drink all your beer. If you invite two, they’ll be so busy watching each other they won’t drink a drop!
Where’s AG?
Booman expressed extreme displeasure with AG about some commentary, and AG decided to take a break from this website.
Finally! Thank God.
Trump is losing.
.
538 has Clinton more likely to win Texas than Utah. That would be the most gratifying, regardless of reason, because the GOP is truly hosed if it loses Texas. But I don’t think she’ll carry either.
I hope Mcmullen wins Utah. I don’t Utah will matter electorally, but I’d like to see an independent carry a state to make going outside of major parties more credible. The GOP is the party more poised for breakup, though the change will affect both.