According to the 2012 exit polls, Barack Obama won the Latino vote 71%-27% over Mitt Romney. In the lead-up to the that election, Latino Decisions put out a poll predicting that 71%-20%. Today, Latino Decisions predicts that Hillary Clinton will carry the Latino vote by a 74%-15% margin.
The first thing to observe is a slightly bigger pool of undecideds. Four years ago, with only 9% undecided, the prediction nailed Obama’s support but either underestimated Romney’s support or, maybe, Romney won all the late deciders.
This time around, there’s eleven percent undecided. If history repeats itself, then Clinton will get about the 74% of Latino voters that’s predicted and Trump will finish with somewhere around 22% or 23%. That would be represent about a 3% erosion of support, which seems like a relatively small price to pay for calling people rapists and criminals and making building a wall to keep them out a foundational pillar of your campaign.
Of course, the late deciders could break for Clinton or the poll could be more accurate this time. There’s also a bigger pie of Latino voters than there was four years ago, and the Latino Decisions poll shows that respondents are more enthusiastic about voting this time, which could drive up turnout.
Any way you slice it, it’s a move in the wrong direction for the Republican Party, but it’s still unclear how much damage has been done. If Trump really gets only 15% of the Latino vote, then the damage will have been extensive. If it’s more like 24%, that seems like a startlingly good result under the circumstances.
It is estimated that about 12% of the voting population will be Hispanic.
Estimates of voter turnout that I can find claim about 60% (actually 3 sources but this one I found first tonite) of Elligibles will turn out.
146M registered voters for 2016, 87.6M actual voters assumed, 10.5M Hispanic voters …
Where did they find 1.5M Hispanics to vote for Trump?
Well, there were Latino voters who voted Republican before Trump and maybe they just didn’t have much of a reason to change their minds. I mean its not like he’s the first Republican candidate to run on Building the Wall.
I’m not certain why we think why Latinos should become 85% Democratic at this point. Moving from 60/40 to 75/25 in 12 years is a huge shift. Only people who have never thought of themselves as belonging to a political party would think that switching away from one to another is just a simple matter.
The most heinous comments by Trump have been directed against Mexico and its immigrants. While Mexican immigrants make up a large majority of Latino voters, their histories are not shared by Latino voters as a whole. Thinking that each and every Latino is another type of Mexican so that one can count on Latinos rallying against the wall is a mistake.
Agreed. Cultural differences are far greater between Hispanic Communities than between English and American. Like the language itself. Ever listen to a speech by a Mexican Spanish speaker re-read by a Puerto Rican? Its hilarious.
However, just as there are cultural/political differences, there are political congruences. Mostly about how they are treated by White Americans. An attack by Trump on Mexicans will be seen as an attack on pretty much all Hispanics of the Carribean basin. I doubt that most Trumpistas can tell the difference between Nicaraguan, Mexican, Columbian and Puerto Rican even if they ever knew there WAS a difference.
I think it is less about those who were Republicans suddenly becoming Democrats than those who were Republicans in the past sitting out this election, and those who werent particularly political in the past finding a reason to vote this time.
This is a disaster for the GOP regardless of what happens in this election! When Pete Wilson went all nativist in support of Prop 187, he won the election, and Prop 187 passed. So, all good right? Well, not so much, because over the next few years California flipped from Red to Blue and now Democrats have absolute control over both the governorship and state legislature and the GOP is totally locked out of power.
Moral of the Story: Just because something doesn’t immediately kill you doesn’t mean it’s all good!
Those Latinos who will support Trump are doing so because they are conservative Republicans, especially Cuban Americans. They are also older. When you’re only getting around 20% it’s hard to lose further support. Younger, more progressive Latinos don’t vote as regularly, and many Latinos who could vote aren’t registered. And while some have registered this cycle, there’s little doubt there’s no massive registration boom. This cycle.
But, Latino participation rates are going up, and will continue to approach whites more closely over time. And the Latino vote has increased with geometric precision: 7% in 2000, 8% in 2004, 9% in 2008, 10% in 2012. 11% in 2016 would mean 14.4 million Latino votes. If Hillary gets 80% of them, not improbable, that’s between 11 and 11.5 million votes. Trump would get fewer than 2.8 million of them. This is already a margin that is bigger than Obama won by in 2012. A HUGE margin.
It seems shocking that Trump doesn’t get 0%, but if the GOP thinks “Gee! Trump only lost 7% over Mitt Romney, despite doing everything except ritually setting an illegal immigrant on fire! If we’re just 1/2 as bad as that, we should be fine!” then they’re just as stupid as I think they are.
the Cuban-Americans aren’t going Trump either.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/hillary-clinton/article107265182.html
The majority, yes, but I was pointing to “who are the 20% of Latinos who will vote for a racist bigot whose supporters want to repeal the 14th Amendment and expel all the ‘anchor babies.'” Those would be older, more conservative Republicans who have voted Republican for 40 years and aren’t about to change now, despite whatever Trump says.
Oh I remember Prop 187. Lived in Cali back then. Was part of the minority voting against it. You’re right. It was not immediately obvious at the time that a vile proposition would lead to the decimation of the GOP in Cali. At the time it seemed like any semblance of a Cali I would have recognized had effectively vanished. Seeing, even if from a distance, Pete Wilson’s party turned into a rump party that can no longer block progressive change has been heartening. Undoing the damage the GOP did in the state – both via elected officials and GOP sponsored or encouraged propositions – will take time. But things seem just a bit better every time I visit. Hopefully one day our whole country can experience the GOP as nothing more than a minor nuisance and we as a nation can start undoing the damage that has been done over several decades. That day cannot come soon enough.
I think you’re looking at the numbers wrong. The 27% of Latinos who voted for Romney are the ones who stayed with the Republicans after his “self-deportation” comments. He has already lost significant numbers compared to McCain and Bush. That’s a pretty fair definition of a Republican base among Latinos. You’re talking about a conservative group and Trump looks like he’ll lose 25% of them. That’s a pretty big price to pay if the Republicans hope to ever make inroads into that growing population.