For all the hype and noise, this election has seen a remarkably consistent trend. If you average all the polls, Clinton has always been ahead, whether by 8 points or 2. Right now she is 4 to 5 points ahead, and it would take a massive polling failure for that not to be reflected in the actual vote. She is also ahead in all the swing states bar Iowa and possibly Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. What we are arguing about is the margin of victory, and who controls the Senate.
Without control of the Senate (55% probability per 538), she won’t be able to make key appointments or ratify Treaties, and without control of the House, she won’t be able to pass a budget or keep the government open. So either way we may be facing a gridlock and an effective coup d’etat. The New American Century is no more. The USA’s influence in the world will probably decline whoever wins the Presidential poll.
Iowa has been trending away from Clinton, but is still within the margin of error given there have been less polls in the state:
Ohio is the tightest state of all – within 1% – well within the margin of error:
North Carolina has also been very tight – this time in favour of Clinton – despite reports of fading African American early voting turnout for Clinton. It will also be one of the first states to declare, so should give an early indication of which way the wind is blowing…
Florida should also report results early – hanging chads permitting…Latino early voting turnout is reported to be high which should favour Clinton:
All the other battleground states are showing greater than 2% margins for Clinton, meaning that upsets are unlikely but not impossible. Trump’s problem is that he could win almost all of them and still not win the electoral college. Sam Wang’s Princeton Election Consortium currently estimates he would need a swing of at least 2.7% to bring enough of them into play. His other problem is that he doesn’t have a GOTV (get out the vote) operation comparable to Hillary’s, and he is being killed by very high Latino early voting turnout in key battleground states like Nevada and Florida.
It is difficult to know what impact FBI Director Comey’s attempt to put his finger on the scales will have. He broke established procedure to reveal that the FBI intended to examine a laptop belonging to one of Hillary’s aides for possible incriminating evidence just 10 days before the poll. Just yesterday – after 40 million voters had already voted – he revealed that nothing incriminating had been found. Hillary’s lead went down from 7 to 4% in that period. However it is doubtful his belated “clarification” will be helpful to her because it highlights her greatest vulnerability at a time when she would rather focus the public narrative on Trump’s suitability for office. Meantime, Trump’s impending prosecution for child rape (since withdrawn, allegedly because of intimidation) gets almost no publicity.
There has been much discussion of possibly skewed polls, “shy Trump voters” unwilling to declare their support for him publicly, the impact of voter suppression attempts (closure of polling stations in predominantly Democratic leaning areas) and a supposed lack of voter enthusiasm for Hillary. African American early voting turn-out is down 12% in North Carolina, but that may be largely down to reduced numbers of polling stations and voting hours. My own view is that there are more likely to be “shy Hillary voters” – women with Trump supporting husbands unwilling to cross them publicly. If your Husband is a misogynistic, authoritarian, Trump supporting bully you are hardly likely to declare an intention to vote for Hillary to him or to a pollster who happens to be on the line within earshot.
But we should know by early morning Wednesday who has won. If Trump wins North Carolina and Florida – two early reporting states – we could be in for a long night. If Hillary wins both you can probably safely go to bed.
I missed the bit about the decline.
See second paragraph. I’m not sure Trump supporters realise the degree to which he is making the USA the laughing stock of much of the rest of the world. This will have real world consequences, as will continued gridlock should Hillary win without congressional majorities.
Not just ‘laughing stock’; I can think of a dozen ways the Trump candidacy and its concomitant anti-government rhetoric adversely affects the national security of the United States of America. That this is clearly aligned with the aspirations of the leadership of a hostile foreign power should give us pause.
To the extent they realize it, it’s a plus. a big sign of contempt for the rest of the world. In European terms, political partisanship for the Trump (and some other) Republican partisans is a form of team tribalism that is a form of football/soccer/rugby hooliganism. Trump’s popularity is as an elbow thrower.
And it might be economic competition instead of military that eventually humiliates the post-Trump USA. The economic integration of Eurasia would do that. Figting that, as seems to be the current NATO policy, puts a lie to the 40-year justification of global economic interdependence as a force for peace.
Hope for a thunderclap of rejection not seen in the current polling, against all odds.
Yes, after fifty years of “If your heart isn’t in America get your ass out” the Trumpkins have formed a tribe which aligns perfectly with the insidious aspirations of a hostile foreign power and its tyrannical and aggressive leadership. Well done!
And thanks GOP for crafting this bludgeon which any enemy of the US can now attempt to pick up and wield against us. We’re dazed, doubtful and confused, under-funded, grid-locked and have cast every convention of politics and electioneering to the wind. Thanks!
So long as there is a ballot box and a reliable federal judiciary we can fight all of these scoundrels and win, the GOP, the corporations, the feather-bedded and unctuous media… All could be made over in an instant if we would just vote our genuine self-interests with a nod to our higher angels.
My international friends (in particular my Eastern and Western European friends) are quite shocked that we’d let the likes of Trump as close to the Oval Office as we have. We’ll most likely dodge a bullet Tuesday, but I agree that the damage is done. Trump may be finished at the end of this election (I maintain my cautious optimism), but the undercurrents that led to a surprisingly successful Trump candidacy are ascendant and likely to feel empowered by the past year’s events. We have a real struggle on our hands, and I question whether those of more moderate or left tendencies are up to the task of fending off this latest wave of extremism.
If Hillary wins either NC or FL, you can go to bed early.
Since the question of victory or defeat will turn on control of the senate, there won’t be any going to bed early, ha-ha…many of the decisive races may not be called till Wednesday, given how close they appear to be. And it will be surprising if litigation doesn’t ensue ala the Al Franken race in 2008. Control may be up in the air for weeks.
The Repub senate is the line the plutocrats and establishment have chosen to defend to the death.
your title: that’s pretty much what everyone I’ve talked with today is saying
That is exactly the narrative that discomfits our allies and emboldens our enemies. Perhaps we should lay off a bit.
Please list those of each.
And if my views formed a narrative that had any influence on our allies and our enemies, we would likely be in a much different situation than we are.
Why exactly are you telling up to suspend our freedom of speech? Who is listening?
The one advantage we have over our geopolitical adversaries which can’t be bought or fabricated is the legitimacy of our system of government. People (world people) mock America constantly, sometimes jealously, sometimes uncomfortably but they genuinely trust it. Not talking about people whose neighbours have recently been murdered by our statecraft, mind you, but the bulk (zee billions) of the rest of humanity including, but not limited to, the citizens of China and Russian and other tyrannies mild and severe. Their leadership have hated this for a long time; their own people tacitly trusting their foe’s integrity.
So:
Not a dozen but you get the idea… I’ll try to think of some more. This is a weapon those we oppose generally can’t wield, the best they can do is gaslight us into disbelieving in our greatest strengths.
All five of your points have come under strain in recent times, at least from a western European perspective, and not always just for those on the left of the political spectrum either.
What does any European have to offer in the way of any reasonable economic policy?
Europe
I won’t mention the disaster that is French politics or the anti immigrant backlash sweeping across Europe
Why would any American listen to this drivel about the us in decline. Our economy with all its faults is in much better shape than most of Europe a fact reflected in the standing of our currency
As someone who spends large portions of time in Europe I have lost immense respect for European Governance and opinion
All to be frank you have left to offer is your arrogance. You are in a continent where one county’s obsession with inflation has resulted in misery for millions and the overriding of democratic opinion in the name of deflationary policy
A European has little to offer in the way of political guidance given that continents current disasterous politics
In fairness to Frank, since he has been kind enough to give us some very thoughtful diaries and comments here over the years, Frank is not one to defend the EU status quo. Quite the opposite, really. There is still something of a pan-European left that is quite serious about reforming the EU so that deflationary pressures and so on are relieved. That is a work in progress and one that will hardly happen overnight. One thing to keep in mind is that what is happening within the EU and what is happening in the US have some commonalities. Each of us is dealing with economic inequality caused by the current set of economic rules (call it neoliberalism, late capitalism, or whatever). Austerity policies have hurt each of us to varying degrees. Each of us is dealing with a rise in right-wing populism. Each of us is struggling with how to handle immigration (their refugee crisis is mainly driven by the Syrian civil war, but ours increase in undocumented immigrants – often themselves refugees of a sort – is due to the devolution of Central American governments such as Guatamala into little more than narco states). Posters like Frank offer us an opportunity to learn from each others’ experiences, if we are willing to do so. I realize that may or may not be a popular opinion here. If not, so be it. I appreciate what he’s tried to offer and hope that he’ll contribute here further, as he has in the past. As another poster might put it, we be betta off. Bet on it.
‘Post-capitalism’. If interest rates are below zero capitalism as we know it is dead.
This is not a contest of who is currently in a worse mess, the US or EU. Frankly we both are. And most of my current time and energy is spent of focusing on the EU/UK part of the mess. This is only my third diary on this US election cycle, having written 60 diaries on past election cycles.
The fact is both of our messes are correlated to a globalist, corporatist, neo-liberal agenda which has sidelined democratic states, hugely increased inequality, undermined the funding base of health, education and social welfare systems, destroyed Unions and communities, and threatened the future of democracy itself.
It doesn’t help progressives in Europe if the US elects a President or Congress that supports basically fascist policies. It reminds us, uncomfortably, of our own mistakes in the 1930’s, and encourages the rise of similar extreme right fascist movements in Europe today.
So yes, I don’t apologies for commenting negatively on the rise of Trump or extreme neo-conservative politics in the USA – precisely BECAUSE there are similar tendencies here in Europe which we don’t want to see further encouraged and empowered.
The decline in US influence which I bemoan is also the decline of positive US influences in the arts and culture now overshadowed by Trump. And no, the USA is not all about Apple phones or designer jeans as you seem to suggest in another comment. The US has much more to offer than a corporatised consumer culture.
You used to stand for freedom from tyranny, and now you threaten to become that tyranny itself. Am I wrong to regret this change?
Totally agree; the neoliberal agenda has put Western democracy at risk in fundamental ways which were well understood in the Forties and Fifties but which now have been subsumed in the perverse incentives of personal prosperity over integrity and reason.
Thanks for your diaries, by the way, always an interesting and insightful read.
Freedom of speech? All yours. We are listening. You don’t think the Trump campaign has made incessant and disturbing headlines worldwide? Mind you this is one of the forums which greeted the Snowden revelations with a collective shrug and ‘whatever‘, for what that’s worth. Also:
But really it is about the world standing with us when confronted by some, now seemingly inevitable, stand-off with Russia or China over sovereignty of territory. It’s on the cards.
The revelation that the FBI was harbouring a bunch of politically-motivated plotters surely crossed the desk of every Minister of Justice on the planet. Imagine the damage that does to whistle-blowers and activists already playing on a tilted playing field in an even more dysfunctional criminal justice system somewhere. It just boggles the mind; Americans are notoriously insular but the slightest nuances of US culture are often mimicked overseas whether Americans realise it or not. Or care.
I’m trying to give an outside perspective on this and the point I am trying to get across is that having a broken political system has consequences not only within the USA but also in the world as a whole. I’m not sure the degree to which even relatively informed US voters are aware of how much the USA has fallen in esteem and influence throughout the world – from a high point after WW2 and then through some step change declines due to Vietnam and Iraq, the financial crisis and the failure to address climate change. Obama managed to arrest or slow this decline for a while, but the election of Trump or gridlock under Clinton will accelerate this process once again.
So yes, your allies and friends are greatly concerned. The world recovery is fragile enough not to be able to take a political shock of a magnitude similar to the financial shock of 2008 – something we have yet to recover from.
Perhaps we should do something about the decline beyond overstating it. Personally, I think the USA’s best days still lay ahead so let’s get to work. But we have one party which is borderline seditious and probably treating with the enemy. Here’s the problem, from the time of the Ukraine conflict:
Nothing’s changed but exactly the same cheerful bluff-calling played out again in Syria. We need a better Republican party, for one thing, not a breeding ground for fascists and traitors.
>>Here’s the problem
the problem is hawks like that writer who think we should go to war because of “values” rather than real national interests.
Even a blind pig finds chestnuts. Are you saying his estimation of Putin’s tactics and ambition is wrong? Or that it wasn’t confirmed in Syria? Happy to discuss that.
But I am not arguing for war, though preparedness would be prudent, but for formal containment, Cold War style; if successfully prosecuted it might drive Putin recklessly into the arms of China.
Our problem is those damn Baltic States; whose idea was that? Dumber, if possible, than Iraq and even more frivolous and counter-productive. The neo-conservatives seem to step on every rake in the yard.
>> Are you saying his estimation of Putin’s tactics and ambition is wrong?
mostly yes I am. I don’t think a bunch of talk about values is necessary to explain what I see as old-fashioned national interest. Russia’s actions recently look to me like this: 1 – defend your sphere of influence; 2 – expand it if possible; 3 – try to prevent your opponent from doing those things. Putin is working this obvious strategy aggressively and well.
What I see confirmed in Syria is that Russia knows which side they’re on and the U.S. does not.
Not saying we should fight just for our values, mind you, although we might have to fight some other motherf*cker as a consequence of his. That’s happened before.
Fighting for values may be preferable than fighting for oil or the private interests of global corporates. In practice values are often only the window dressing for a far darker agenda.
I was in china for two weeks. A country full of people wearing us labels with us designed cell phones.
You. Are. Full. Of shit
Let me know when you have dealt with the fascists spreading all through Europe
>>You. Are. Full. Of shit
i wish i could tell what this was responding to.
don’t agree with you at all. or otherwise put, everyone has fallen in esteem since the high point of WWII except Germany and Japan. look at England, for example. it’s just some romantic notion that had trouble brushing up against reality
fwiw, the discussions were about having only 2 terrible candidates to choose between, and the possible reasons for that
No it hasn’t been stable
My graph in my diary shows that
Pollster artificially smooths the results
With respect us influence Europeans are always writing such drivel
Thanks for the diary. Always good to get a sober perspective from outside the US. I suspect we’ll be dealing with the repercussions of this particular election clusterf*ck for a while to come. If there is a lesson that can be learned from the last few months, it’s that we’re really not that special relative to other nations when it comes to corruption, to our vulnerability to right-wing extremist groups and parties, and so on.
I’m cautiously optimistic that Clinton will win both the popular and electoral votes. I’m a bit more worried about the Senate, although with the exception of Nate Silver, most seem pretty convinced she’ll at least have 50 friendly Senators to work with. She’ll need to make the most of the first two years in office, given what will likely transpire during the midterm elections.
Clearly, our nation’s neo-Nazis loved Trump’s last ad.
This is what makes America great and we’ve got stacks of it: