Ronald Klain, who “oversaw the team implementing the American Recovery and Renewal Act,” is warning Democrats not to get behind Donald Trump’s infrastructure plan. This is particularly true if the plan resembles the one Trump floated during the campaign.
Obviously, if Klain is correct that the bill will weaken unions and wages, and eliminate environmental protections then it should be rejected for those reasons alone. However, these are points of negotiation. One possible reason for working constructively on the bill would be to prevent these kinds of provisions. If that effort is unsuccessful, then the Senate Democrats should filibuster the bill and force the Republicans to use some extraordinary means like the budget reconciliation process to pass it.
Klain is also concerned about two other factors, both of which need to be taken very seriously. The first is that the bill is essentially a giant tax break which won’t be paid for, and that the Republicans will use resulting budget deficits as a rationale for slashing government programs that the Democrats see as vital.
The second is that the bill, as proposed, would not be effective as a jobs creator and would ultimately prove unpopular.
I understand why Democrats are searching for areas where they can make progress under a Trump presidency and why some Democrats say they won’t follow the Republican example of 2009 — when the GOP minority unanimously opposed the Recovery Act, even after intense negotiations with them diverted one-third of the plan to tax cuts. It is possible that Trump may modify the plan he released in October, and some Trump advisers are talking about sweetening the deal for Democrats by adding an “infrastructure bank.” But even with such an addition, the Trump plan would not be a reasonable compromise — acceptance of its huge tax breaks for construction investors and profits for contractors would be a wholesale concession. Democrats supporting such a deal in the moment will find that their votes will wear poorly in the future.
After the disappointing election results, Democrats are looking for ways to connect with working-class voters — and Trump’s plan appears to offer that. But when the plan is passed and those voters see that it fattens investors’ and contractors’ pockets (but not workers’), creates few jobs, depresses wages and damages our environment, they will sour on it and turn against its backers.
House Democrats have no say in this, but the Senate Democrats should at least show an openness to engage.
There are three reasons for this.
One, they need to resist Trump forcefully in so many areas that it’s important to have at least something that they’re open to. Second, just as the Republicans left their stamp on the Recovery Act even though they didn’t ultimately support it, the Democrats can do the same. Third, they can do better by stringing the process out than if they signal immediately that the Republicans will have to resort to the budget reconciliation process. This is especially true because the Trump transition team defied the advice of congressional Republicans and asked them to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government rather than negotiate this year’s spending with the outgoing Obama administration. This means that they’ll be bogged down dealing with last year’s business in the spring and less able to use budget reconciliation as a fallback later in the year.
So, for reasons of optics, politics, procedure, and strategy, it makes sense for the Senate Democrats to enter into legislative negotiations on an infrastructure bill and to engage in a markup in the relevant committees. If they can transform the bill into something substantially different and more worthwhile, they may be able to vote for it. More likely, they’ll find the final product so objectionable that they’ll want to filibuster it. If that filibuster holds up, the GOP may find it too late to salvage the effort this year, dealing Trump a major bloody nose. In the meantime, just as the Republicans used the time bought by their bad faith effort to negotiate over Obamacare to mobilize opposition, the Democrats can use the time to educate the public about what’s wrong with the bill and why it should be rejected.
If the Democrats adopt a “no-way” approach at the outset, they’ll get cut out of the process entirely, the bill will pass in its worst form, and they’ll look like they’re the unreasonable party.
So, even though their base will call them naive and accuse them of selling out, they should ignore them and engage.
Do DC types EVER listen to themselves?
“The first is that the bill is essentially a giant tax break which won’t be paid for”
If we are going to attack a stimulus package as a deficit buster it is proof that we are absolutely incompetent as a party.
Good Christ can’t anybody here play this game. Seriously?
Seriously?
It both terrible economics and terrible politics.
More to the point, since this is really just a privatization scheme, there is every reason to believe that it won’t help the very workers that Trump promised to help. At best, there may be a very modest short term stimulus (and very little will trickle down to those who need that stimulus the most) and long-term it will have a huge negative impact on the economy – again hurting the very workers Trump promised to help. The simple message is that this sham of a stimulus will not help workers. It will not give them jobs in the numbers needed. It will not give them decent paying jobs in the numbers needed. It will transfer more of their wealth to Trump’s cronies. That’s it. As far as the Dems reaction – it should be dead on arrival. Let the Republicans own that pile of stinking garbage.
Yeah, there’s almost no jobs in infrastructure spending anymore. It’s all heavy equipment now.
Can you define the long term impact without using the deficit as an explanation?
I am guessing McBride, if I know his writing style well enough, is think of impact in terms such as GDP, and most probably actual job creation. In those terms, the infrastructure “stimulus” Trump is actually proposing is hardly a stimulus at all. We’ll barely notice it. Like his other privatization schemes, longer term we’ll see it suck the life out of the economy – again think in terms of employment and GDP. If you’re reading something else into McBride’s writing that I am not, by all means let me know.
It’s not a stimulus package. As proposed, it’s a few hundred billion in tax giveaways to construction companies to build some things they were going to build anyway. The effective stimulus approaches zero.
That said, I’m all with Boo on the approach. If it’s a straight-up fight between us and the Republicans we lose, because McConnell understands the filibuster and will nuke it if it gets in his way and he has unified support from the Republicans. Intransigent opposition will lose. So there are two approaches: first, slow things down as much as possible; and second, split the Republicans (3 Senators needed to block, or Trump, or maybe 25 Representatives). Splitting will require an opportunity presenting itself, so our initial approach should be to delay.
Standard Congressional procedure is actually a great way to delay things, and it doesn’t compromise our ability to do a goal-line filibuster defense. if things actually get to the floor. It’s what the Republicans did in 2009-2010 – although McConnell swore endless opposition a fair number of Republican Senators signaled cooperation in committee negotiations and it wasn’t until bills started hitting the floor in Fall 2009 that we realized it was all fake. There’s every reason for us to do the same.
Also keep in mind the Republican Senate majority is very narrow and we can lose 7 Senators and still filibuster. If 5 cross over on a given bill for local political purposes, or even to pull a fast one on McConnell, we’re just fine.
Not sure deliberately dealing in bad faith is a good idea. The public already sees Democrats as liars. Why double down on that?
Why not? It worked out pretty well for the Republicans during the Obama years. Also.. why pretend you’re speaking for the public here when Trump lost the popular vote? The bias hurts your argument.
Don’t worry about it. Dealing in bad faith is a hallowed congressional custom.
Maybe I should have block quoted his point to make it clearer:
You are missing a BIG point. He is using public tax deficits to GIVE AWAY public projects to his buddies. THEY will OWN the infrastructure, not the public. More rentals for capital.
That is not the investment use of deficit spending that grows the commons.
The part that got my attention was the idea that private company projects already underway or planned will be part of the so called spending, i.e. money that was already going to be spent. And since this is private money – with the nice twist that we get to pay the profits for it – they own it, like public utilities. Kinda cute if you ask me. This could be a gold rush of smart investors. Let me in.
Then along comes Sally or Kellyanne saying as how we gotta cut spending somewhere else to pay for the profit they just gave to the private investors. How about some of your medicare? Seems fair.
I didn’t miss that. But that’s a campaign proposal, not an actual bill. If that’s what the bill amounts to, I doubt the Democrats will be interested in helping in any case, especially without much more than an investment bank as compensation.
You do know that Schumer and others plan to finance the Infrastructure Bank with a pennies-on-the-dollar deal for tax scofflaws repatriating their offshored profits.
Would an Infrastructure Bank happen otherwise? There will be tax reform of some kind and the realities of who controls Congress and the WH dictates the character of these reforms and legislation.
Should Democrats adopt the Republican approach to the Obama stimulus? They got 1/3 as tax cuts and then proceeded to withhold any support.
I can see the corporate Dems using Trump and GOP control of Congress as cover for supporting some odious legislation.
Warren is saying these scofflaws are in a sweat that Europeans will be taking tax bites like Ireland has. She says THEY want a deal now.
Funny we never get tax deals like that. Seems ok to you?
No, not really. This is why I’m leaning towards withholding support as the Democrats are very near to their floor with regards to political power. There’s not much more to lose.
I’m not very optimistic about how these deals are going to look and I think whatever they agree to will be hated by the left.
Shhhh…..
We have to find a reason to oppose something we have been yelling for for years.
Trump is going to run circles around us if we don’t stop and think.
When I read Democrats talking about the deficit I know we have lost the plot.
The idea that 70 year old Donald Trump running rings around Democrats when he literally knows nothing about government is absurd. The action will be in Congress. The only issue is whether he chooses to blunder into the process and randomly screw things up for McConnell and Ryan. I think it’s 50:50. The Democrats have generally been really stupid in Congress compared to the GOP. Will they learn or just continue to be the usual accommodationists? I don’t know.
Donald Trump is going to eat our lunch if we are opposing infrastructure spending on the grounds that it will increase the deficit.
Some history. Reagan proposed a tax cut and offsetting spending cuts. He got the tax cuts, but not the spending cuts. Stockman then gave an interview in the Atlantic.
Simultaneously Reagan made a deal with the Democrats to extend social security.
The cuts proposed in early ’81 never happened to nearly the extent that Stockman wanted.
So in its place we got a form of military Keynesian, which proved reasonably effective.
The deficit tripled.
So fucking what?
I REALLY don’t think people get it yet. Trump didn’t take the entitlement bait. If he sticks to his guns he is going to make Democrats look like fools.
Trump is far more dangerous to the Democrats than Romney ever was. If he governs like he ran, he is going to take Democratic issues away, and actually deliver on things Democrats never did.
This is really serious and based on the stuff I am reading I REALLY don’t think people have understood what is about to happen.
If he passes a stimulus package and a minimum wage hike he is going to be more popular than he is now.
And he will make Democrats look like hypocrites.
I agree. We shouldn’t worry about the deficit. Let the freedom caucus take up the mantel. We should instead oppose because it is a privatization scheme. From the few details that has emerged it is basically a plan to add more and more toll roads, bridges, etc to our infrastructure. Just say that Trump’s plan means you will be $5-10 to drive to work because every free road you enjoy now will soon be a toll road.
There is no actual stimulus spending. It is just tax cuts for the wealthy, repeal of the Estate Tax, and corporate grift on already approved projects.
Hell, if he did all of these things I might have to consider voting for him. Maybe he will repeal Obamacare and replace it with single-payer while we’re at it.
This was Reagan’s claim. In reality, the budgets passed by Congress were almost identical to what he sent down, and they actually spent slightly less than he asked for. Southern Democrats (of which there were plenty then) voted with Republicans in Congress. This didn’t stop Reagan from spending his 2 terms blasting Congress for not giving him what he asked for.
The reality is that Reagan campaigned on cutting spending by cutting “welfare” and waste but wanted to dramatically increase one major component (DOD) while the other major component (social security) was a 3rd rail. The spending side of voodoo economics.
This is plunder of the taxpayer to subsidize infrastructure for private owners.
I largely agree. Concern is that democrats will give bipartusan cover to something unacceptable after negotiation. But I think the hell no line in the sand needs to be medicare. Thats cuts across all identities, and blunted Bush’s term. Moreover some gop members have already said theyre scared to kill medicare without Dem cover. Thats what needs to be hell no. On other fronts negotiate and stall.
Ah, but Dems love that Insurance Company money too.
The stalling is a way to “educate” Trump on the difficulty of governing. No bigly. No quickly.
My concern is Uncle Joe will butt in at some impasse that leadership wants and gets some garbage concessions that will make it enticing to Manchin and Heitkamp or politically difficult to vote against for McCaskill, Casey, King or Nelson. Then the wheels come off and this strategy breaks down. At that point, Dems own this grifters paradise.
Do we know what Biden plans to do in retirement and can we have him under house arrest during any negotiations?
so 40+ Dems vote against it and 3 or 4 vote for it and it’s the Dems that own it?
You better believe it!
Yes, I can see that happening. There will be lots of pressure on Democrats like Manchin and Heitkamp.
McConnell succeeded brilliantly at getting Republican senators to buy into his obstruction strategy. Democrats don’t like to operate like this and even if they did I’m not so sure that the media would provide cover for them like they did the Republicans.
Anybody want to bet that Trump and family and friends have a few horses in the hunt? He is out to enrich himself even if he has to steal it from the treasury and out of our pockets. I fear this is only the beginning.
Don’t forget one thing. There is a reason the Mercer family, and other super-rich shitheads, were/are willing to back Donald Trump. They’ll profit from Trump’s garbage as well.
I won’t forget. Plus they are addicted to hate.
Enraging the base forms the foundation of base support when they dig in. But they need some loud outsiders to scream about the effects on labor so that the GOP is tagged with the bill early on.
I should not have to be saying this; the Senate Democrats should know how to play this game (if they are truly committed to their base). That stuff in the parentheses is what Democratic politicians must re-establish after this election. Some Sister Souljahing of key donors expecting quid pro quo would help their credibility. Contractors donate to Democrats too.
Doesn’t all of this strategery rely on:
This is 2001-2005, without the “compassion”.
I cant believe that after twenty years of democrats sucking republican dick and losing elections, that you, an alleged smart person, are encouraging the same. Democrats didnt lose the smart person vote, they lost the dummy vote, and the dummys see democrats as crybaby bitches who will never stand up for them or America. When democrats capitulate it reinforces the idea that democrats are weak and cant be trusted with american safety. Where have you lived that you cant see this?
About the time that Clinton fainted on 911, I was banned from this site, without explanation. Sure most of you hypocrites were glad to be rid of me. I’m back, and I’ve got more to say. Not just about the fainting of the robot Hillary Clinton that I voted for, like all of you, joylessly. But also about being banned from this site for that. For calling out a fainting woman and a fainting campaign for what it was: a cadre of frauds unwilling to fight for anyone or anything as if it mattered.
And NOW we’re talking about whether to engage or not? On terms the enemy dictates? And how or why that might be advantageous or not?
How many times do we do this? How many more times, at the behest of equivocating voices like Washington Monthly do we sit down quietly, close our eyes, and quietly voice our analyses of urban, suburban, exurban, or rural precinct numbers that could, in another close electoral cycle, make the difference to elect another uniquely unqualified president?
Nixon. Carter. Reagan. Bush. Clinton. Bush. Obama. Trump.
Over the past fifty years these are the white men we’ve elected, and they have all been awful.
Address that problem. Not whether or not to engage. Why does this country continue to elect, into a most powerful elected position, such demonstratively abysmal white men. Yes, Obama included.
Then let’s talk about how (or why to bother) to engage. You want to engage when the time is right? You want more votes for the better candidate? Let’s nominate better candidates to vote for first. The rest of this is bullshit. So we get Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, and (why so surprised or horrified?) Trump.
By all means, yes, let’s engage. Engage like it’s a war and we’ve got something worth fighting for.
The Democrats could emulate the GOP on ACA – pretend to cooperate and drag it out as long as possible before everyone votes against it. Personally I’d prefer that strategy.
But if the Wimpocrats had a spine they’d point out that the whole Tea Party movement was allegedly a reaction to the stimulus package passed at the start of 2009. Of course, that wasn’t the real reason – the real reason was that the GOP leaders told their rank and file that the whole stimulus was a giant giveaway to the blahs in the hood. But worth pointing out the hypocrisy (not that the MSRM (Mainstream Republican Media) will give a flying crap).
So far, what we are seeing with infrastructure, SS, Medicare, whatever winds up being done with the ACA, is pure kleptocracy. We cannot afford to have our fingerprints on that.