Last night, Bill O’Reilly gave a little speech on his Fox News program The O’Reilly Factor in which he explained his theory of why people on the left want to do away with the Electoral College. Since it hits on several themes I’ve been focusing on, I am going to quote his remarks in full.
BILL O’REILLY: Abolishing the Electoral College, that is the subject of tonight’s Talking Points Memo. After Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, the left in America is demanding that the Electoral College system put into place in 1787 be scrapped. But there’s a hidden reason for this.
As we reported, even though Secretary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.8 million, the progressive state of California provided all of that margin. Clinton defeating Trump there by about 4.3 million votes. So if the Electoral College were abolished, presidential candidates could simply campaign in the nation’s largest states and cities,New York, L.A., Chicago, Houston, and rack up enough votes to pretty much win any election. That’s what the left wants. That’s what they want. Because in the large urban areas and blue states like New York and California, minorities are substantial. Look at the landscape. Philadelphia, Dallas-Fort Worth, Miami. In all of these places the minority vote usually goes heavily to the Democrats. And to that New York City, L.A., Chicago, San Francisco, don’t really have a national election anymore, do you? You have targeted populations. Newspapers like the New York Times and the L.A. Times have editorialized to get rid of the Electoral Cllege. They well know that neutralizing the largely white rural areas in the Midwest and South will assure liberal politicians get power and keep it.
Talking Points believes this is all about race. The left sees white privilege in America as an oppressive force that must be done away with. Therefore white working class voters must be marginalized and what better way to do that than center the voting power in the cities. Very few commentators will tell you that the heart of liberalism in America today is based on race. It permeates almost every issue. That white men have set up a system of oppression. That system must be destroyed. Bernie Sanders pedaled that to some extent Hillary Clinton did. And the liberal media tries to sell that all day long. So-called white privilege bad. Diversity good.
If you look at the voting patterns, it’s clear that the Democrats are heavily reliant on the minority vote. Also on the woman vote. White men have largely abandoned the Democrats and the left believes it’s because of racism that they want to punish minorities, keep them down. So that’s what’s really going on when you hear about the Electoral College and how unfair it allegedly is. Summing up, the left wants power taken away from the white establishment. They want a profound change in the way America is run. Taking voting power away from the white precincts is the quickest way to do that.
I’ll begin my response where O’Reilly began. It’s true that California provided the entirety of Hillary Clinton’s margin of popular vote victory (and then some), and it’s true that one positive feature of the Electoral College system is that it forces the candidates to campaign in battleground states where they have an opportunity to see a variety of microcultures and discrete political concerns. Something would be lost if we had one nationwide popular vote, and it would put more emphasis on campaigning in the biggest population centers. On the other hand, the majority of our states get very little attention in our current system because it’s a foregone conclusion how they will vote. A Republican isn’t going to spend much time campaigning around Boston and a Democrat will probably ignore New Orleans.
Another advantage to the Electoral College (and, I think, its best feature) was identified by George Will in his column last week:
Those who demand direct popular election of the president should be advised that this is what we have — in 51 jurisdictions (the states and the District). And the electoral vote system quarantines electoral disputes. Imagine the 1960 election under direct popular election: John F. Kennedy’s popular vote margin over Richard M. Nixon was just 118,574. If all 68,838,219 popular votes had been poured into a single national bucket, there would have been powerful incentives to challenge the results in many of the nation’s 170,000 precincts.
Honestly, though, the left isn’t objecting to the Electoral College because they’re opposed to retail politics or indifferent to the advantages of quarantining vote-counting disputes. They’re upset because the system disadvantages them.
So, the real debate should be over whether there are reasons why the left should have to compete with fifty pound weights strapped to their legs.
O’Reilly says that the left’s belief is that by “neutralizing the largely white rural areas in the Midwest and South” they can get power. I guess that’s true in a certain sense, but the word “neutralizing” is instructive in this case. If by neutral, we mean that white rural votes should have the same weight as all other votes, then all we’re doing is evening the playing field. Of course, “neutralizing” can also mean to “kill” or just to remove a threat. O’Reilly uses racially charged incendiary language on purpose, but the only thing the left wants to kill is the unfair advantage that makes the opinion of a white rancher in Wyoming several times more influential than the opinion of a Latino city worker in Los Angeles:
Although Wyoming had a population in the last census of only 563,767, it gets 3 votes in the Electoral College based on its two Senators and one Congressman. California has 55 electoral votes. That sounds like a lot more, but it isn’t when you consider the size of the state. The population of California in the last census was 37,254,503, and that means that the electoral votes per capita in California are a lot less. To put it another way, the three electors in Wyoming represent an average of 187,923 residents each. The 55 electors in California represent an average of 677,355 each, and that’s a disparity of 3.6 to 1.
Now, when O’Reilly says that the left believes “that white men have set up a system of oppression” and that “that system must be destroyed,” he’s tribalizing the debate over the merits of the Electoral College and telling his white audience that racial minorities in the cities want to annihilate them in retaliation for their oppression. On the one hand, we do have a legacy of slavery and Jim Crow, and our legal system still demonstrates vast disparities in treatment and outcomes based on race. But the only oppression we need to concern ourselves with here is the oppression that comes with fighting to win election where your opponent can win even when they get nearly three million fewer votes. The left would simply like to win elections in which they get the most votes. It’s not any more complicated than that.
O’Reilly sneers when he says “So-called white privilege bad; diversity good,” but the only privilege that’s directly relevant to the Electoral College is the privilege of having your vote count for more than the votes of your opponents.
I want to look at O’Reilly’s conclusion one more time before I conclude.
White men have largely abandoned the Democrats and the left believes it’s because of racism that they want to punish minorities, keep them down. So that’s what’s really going on when you hear about the Electoral College and how unfair it allegedly is. Summing up, the left wants power taken away from the white establishment. They want a profound change in the way America is run. Taking voting power away from the white precincts is the quickest way to do that.
O’Reilly starts by strongly suggesting that the left (in his view, synonymous with minorities) is wrong to believe that the system is designed by the white establishment to keep them down, but then immediately complains that the left wants to take an unfair advantage away from white precincts.
I know you are not surprised that Bill O’Reilly and Fox News are using their airwaves to tell white people that darkies are coming to get them and change how things are run and take away their privileges and exact revenge on them for the sins of oppression.
I know you are not surprised that, even as they do this, they accuse the left of being the ones who make “everything about race.”
What’s clear from O’Reilly’s rant, however, is that he sees the Electoral College as a bulwark of white privilege and justifiable oppression. And that’s precisely why he likes it and wants to protect it.
Over here on the left, though, there’s an actual debate about the pros and cons of the Electoral College, and it’s not all about race. It’s about whether or not we should elect our president the same way we elect our governors and senators and congresspeople and the leaders of our unincorporated hamlets.
I’d like to have that debate, but whether you’re a liberal or a conservative, if you’re a thinking person you know that any system that comes up with Donald Trump as the answer is suffering from fatal flaws in its code.
Gaming the Electoral College
Don’t like the results? Change the rules!
http://www.270towin.com/alternative-electoral-college-allocation-methods/
Change the number of electors until a latino’s vote in LA has the same weight as a rancher in Wyoming. Next problem please…
that would require increasing the size of the House
Yes, and I’m sure the 1’s out of 435 are eager to become the 1’s out of say 600.
it’s always been up to Congress to increase its size and they’ve done it in the past, just need to find a way to make it beneficial to them or not doing it makes it painful
Sorry, but being 1 out of 600 is no different than being 1 out of 435 or being 1 out of 1200. The problem with the EC is that it now makes being just a state more important than being a person — giving more weight to geography than to people. That was never the intent of the Founders, given how they established initially how House seats were to be created, by a ratio of population to House seat. They expected the House to perpetually increase in size, making sure that voters mattered more than land. It’s only when the Congress back a century ago perverted that vision that we’ve wound up with this bastardized system which is starting to come apart at the seams. Only those who favor a landed aristocracy would want to keep the current arrangement in perpetuity.
We could just allocate EC votes per state in proportion to population. That would restore one person one vote while preserving the quarantine on disputes. Changing Congressional representation is a different debate, because the two don’t have to be tied. There are under the current rules, but we’re obviously talking about changing those.
Doubtful. Such a situation (in this election) could just as likely have gone to the House. Jay Cost of Weekly Standard did math this way with these results:
“So here’s a thought experiment: what if today’s Electoral College was divided up proportionally? What I did was take the percentage that Trump & Clinton won in each state, and multiplied by its allocated electors. That left a remainder for each candidate. If the candidate won the state, I always rounded UP. If the candidate lost, I rounded down.
And what result did that produce?
<Drumroll Please>
Clinton 251
Trump 253
Third Parties 34″
Now that’s not precisely what you argued to do, but Nate Cohn has said something similar.
That’s not at all what I argued because it does not address the disparity in electors per vote at all; it just makes it matter by what margin a candidate wins a state, which is a different issue and not the main controversy.
besides I’m arguing from principle, so the criterion of success is not whether it produces a result I like.
1. Obviously, 2000 and 2016 weren’t good years for the popular vote backers or for Democrats.
However, in 2004 if the Democrats had succeeded in reversing Ohio the popular vote loser would have moved into the White House. In 2012 there was some polling suggesting Romney might manage to win the popular vote but lose the election. [link]. So I am not sure the Dems are always competing with 50 pound weights on their legs. But hey, I think Bernie would have trounced Trump, so sue me.
2. I think the quarantine argument is pretty powerful. Right now, no one really cares if there is vote fraud in California, a large de facto one-party state (which had two Democrats but no Republicans on the Senate ballot, due to their “jungle primary” and yes, I deplore the racist imagery as do we all.) Anyway, the lack of Senate and down-ticket candidates undoubtedly affected the Republican ground game and turnout, but with the EC system, who cares?
We could see a similar quarantibe benefit in Republican dominated states. Basically, cheating anywhere could be rewarded everywhere with one national vote.
I am sure O’Reilly knows that.
“…if you’re a thinking person…”
Isn’t that the rub? We assume voters were “thinking persons”, and this election shows that for the most part, they are not.
In other words, propaganda works. But we knew that, didn’t we?
The fundamental problem isn’t the EC but the Senate and to a lesser extent the House allocations. The latter is adjusted every ten years for population. Imperfectly because it still allows the smallest population states to punch above their weight. OTOH, the population/House rep is higher for ID than it is for either CA or NV. And states with a growing, non-citizen population have an advantage over states with low immigration and low non-citizen population. So, perhaps it’s a wash (ignoring gerrymandering).
There’s rarely sufficient political power to junk the EC in favor of a popular vote. And when there has been (ie 1936) it wasn’t on the DP agenda. Nor was adjusting the wide population disparity for Senate seats which is an on-going, daily impediment to goo-goo and unlike the EC that has produced a different result from the popular vote only twice the past hundred-plus years. And we can’t even say with total confidence that the results of those two times would have been different if the rules had been different.
None of the small/smaller states are going to give up their advantage of having two Senators. And those states number approximately half the states. When the EC vote is near 50/50%, the winner but popular vote loser also represents half or more than half of the states, and they aren’t about to cede power at that time. Unless or until someone can construct a viable means to correct the imbalance, we’re stuck. And whining by the losers and doubling down by the winners are predictable tilting at windmills.
“Only twice the past hundred years” is one way to put it. Another way would be “holy shit, we’ve been boned twice in the last 16 years.” I’m a lot less sanguine about the latter than I am the former.
Then I’m sure you have figured out a means to junk the EC in favor of the popular vote. If not, then you’re engaging in useless OMG! instead of thinking and doing something about issues that have a greater possibility than near zero of accomplishing something positive.
I can do both, bitch about the EC, work on a way to fix it, while working on more immediate goals like flipping some state houses. It’s not always either or.
It is to some people here.
Doesn’t it take 3/4 of the states for a Constitutional Amendment? With half the states losing power, why would state legislatures voluntarily give up power? For states that give power to the voters, why would the voters give up power? Because their “betters” are smarter than the dumb hicks and the dumb hicks know it?
Whining about the EC is a waste of energy that could be used to figure out a way to woo voters back. But, horrors! That would involve the 0.01% to give up some of their ill-gotten gains. Can’t have that can we?
Hey, I’m all for taxing the shit out of the rich to pay for a robust social safety net. Tell me how we make that happen in today’s environment.
It does. So, getting an amendment through congress that reduces the power of smaller states is only the first high hurdle. Thus, the legislative route is a dead-end and the SC can’t resolve conflicts in the Constitution (the EC and 14th amendment). Plus, the SC isn’t all that diligent about voter rights anyway.
That leave this issue as an agenda item for the next constitutional convention.
If you don’t contest the turf, you don’t win. The Democratic establishment sacrificed more and more turf until they lost catastrophically. That is the practical issue.
The philosophical issue has to do with the notion of one-citizen-one-vote and who constitutes the category of “citizen”. O’Reilly is being deliberately inflammatory on this issue to keep the GOP marketing campaign going. In marketing terms, the Democrats have difficulty penetrating this market because of the way the channels and messaging are structured.
Believing that marketing communication is the only form of political communication, the Democrats do not even try anymore. Nor does their success bring out candidates willing to invest their time in essentially unsupported political races.
And until there is the political will to go through the Congressional and state ratification steps required to eliminate the Electoral College, the issue is pretty moot.
The Democratic brand is more toxic in FoxNews country than are actual lefty and progressive ideas. Part of that toxicity has to do with racist appeals for discrimination. Most has to do with the betrayal of public interest by all politicians. The GOP just gets cut slack because the public expects “small government” politicians to do nothing and even to betray them, validating the popular government cannot work. By taking the high road, Democrats take the bigger fall in reputation. It’s perverse, but that’s the way that people and the media frame it. Dirtying the goody-goody-two-shoes is a popular sport of late.
As you say, ” if you don’t contest the turf, you don’t win”. But you may need to dirty your goody two shoes to do it. Trump lied in almost everything he said. And he has proposed horrendous policies. No one knows if he will actually do all the things he says, but you can bet he will do anything to enrich himself and friends. To me he seems to have a gold plated hallway pass to,say whatever thing comes to his mind at 3 a.m.no matter how outrageous.
We love to boast about our democracy. We should actually try to be one. For me, it’s that simple.
It’s pretty simple: it’s okay for colored people to vote as long as their votes don’t change the outcome. O’Reilly gets it, why don’t you?
It’s OK to be black.
It’s OK to vote.
But black+vote = uppity
.
any system that comes up with Hillary Clinton as the answer is suffering from fatal flaws in its code.
Further proof that O’Reilly knows his audience precisely. Crap like this is merely a form of job insurance for him.
Incrementalism at its finest. Just when you think ‘no way will they stoop so low to defend this’, they go a little further.
Trump is going to take us to the deep dark depths. But the incrementalism won’t be tiny steps, it will be giant leaps.
.
While I understand the philosophical reason to have a debate over the electoral college it seems to me that Ds would do better to come up with a real action plan.
I think this would be a combination of three things
I really like the CityLab page. Kinda out of mainstream thinking.
http://www.citylab.com/housing/2016/03/mapping-the-resegregation-of-diverse-neighborhoods-in-4-us-ci
ties/472086/
And Jane…
At a time when pundits and political scientists were celebrating the end of history, pointing to an emerging Democratic majority and extolling the virtues of a flat world of globalization, she ominously predicted a coming age of urban crisis, mass amnesia, and populist backlash in her final work, Dark Age Ahead. Eerily prescient as always, rereading the 2005 book today serves as a survivors’ guide to the Age of Trump.
Jacobs outlines an increasing distrust of politicians and politics, a burgeoning new urban crisis in cities, worsening environmental degradation, entrenched segregation, and an “enlarging gulf between rich and poor along with attrition of the middle class” as signals and symptoms of a coming Dark Age.
Nationalism and xenophobia form the core of Jacobs’ Dark Age. “Cultural xenophobia is a frequent sequel to a society’s decline from cultural vigor,” as “self-imposed isolation” leads to “a fortress mentality,” she writes.
http://www.citylab.com/politics/2016/12/did-jane-jacobs-predict-the-rise-of-trump/509987/
I don’t care how you analyze the electoral college versus the popular vote because it just doesn’t feel like we had one person, one vote.
Off-topic: Why has no one talked about the 13 indictments in Michigan regarding its very undemocratic situation, which caused the water in Flint and elsewhere have lead in it?
Back in the day when most states had but a handful of Electoral College votes due to their House of Representatives allocation, it didn’t make much difference in terms of “one person, one vote.” Today, after a century of having frozen the size of the House of Representatives, the current Electoral College disparity is starting to spin out of control. The population of the nation has tripled since the current House size was set, with no provisions whatsoever for adjusting it ever based on population. Perhaps, the time has come to change that approach. Increase the size of the House. It’s no more difficult dealing with a House of Representatives of 1200 people than it is of ~430. It would increase the ability of Representatives to deal with constituents, which was supposed to be their primary job, while correcting a growing cancer in our Presidential electoral system. After 100 years, it’s time to start implementing a fix before its inherent inequity results in irreversible divisions.
I think you’e giving too much credit to the argument that without the EC, campaigns would center only on big cities. A vote is a vote, and most are reached by media, including social media, pretty much all of it accessible from anywhere nowadays. There are only 10 cities in the US with a population above 1 million anyway, 4 of them are in red states, and their total population is less than 30 million. That’s less than 10% of the US population. Rural areas account for about 15%. No one can win just by carrying the cities, and even under a fair system, you’re better off carrying the countryside than the biggest cities. Under the current unfair system, you are dramatically so.
http://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/releases/2015/cb15-89_graphic.jpg
I have to quibble with the way you presented this demographic data, by comparing the entire rural population to the population of just the 10 biggest cities.
A better way to say it is that the entire rural population of the US is only 15% of the total population, yet their voting power dominates the EC. Their political power far outstrips their share of the population. Their share of government expenditures far outstrips the per-capita average. That situation is untenable for the 85%.
I did it that way because booman said the largest cities, and 6 of the 8 cities O’Reilly names in the quoted text are from the top ten.
Few have a problem with the electoral college when their preferred party wins. I don’t have an issue with it because I support the principle that all states are equal. Now.. this may not be true economically, socially, or politically but I think its a principle that has contributed to governing stability.
Reality is that the election margin was very small and it would take a marginal shift to win in 2020. It’s not the end of the world. Better to regroup, organize, and compete for voters than whine about this.
Normally, the electoral college falls in line with the popular vote, so the issue is moot. As for cases where a Democrat has won the EC despite losing the popular vote, this has never happened, so there is no evidence on which to base suppositions about how Democrats would react to this. There have been four US Presidents selected by the EC that lost the popular vote: Hayes, Harrison, Bush, and now Trump. All were Republicans who lost the popular vote to Democrats.
I think voters being equal is far more important than administrative units like states being equal. In the early days, when the states had to be enticed into coming to and staying in the union, ensuring disproportionate power for the smaller states may have made pragmatic sense, but now that the country is integrated, it makes no sense.
Do you also think it makes no sense that Vermont has the same number of Senators as California?
I think there’s no doubt that such constructs limit the exercise of political power, to some extent. Likely that was the intent.
Since you mention it, no.