This piece in The Hill does a good job of describing how difficult it will be for Paul Ryan’s House of Representatives to achieve all their legislative goals this year. It doesn’t mention the effort to confirm a new Supreme Court Justice because that’s the Senate’s job, but ultimately nothing becomes a law unless both the House and Senate vote on it. So, in reality, the battle over Merrick Garland’s stolen seat on the Supreme Court will add to the backlog on the must-do list.
Doing the committee work and scheduling all the votes present daunting challenges. But there are two other major hurdles. One is a lack of cohesiveness within the Republican caucus. Consider that when Speaker Ryan gave President Trump a roadmap of his legislative schedule, he omitted any reference to a bill on infrastructure. Trump noticed this and ordered Ryan to include it.
But the House Republicans are never united about spending money on infrastructure, can’t agree on how to pay for it, and have a large rump that is ideologically opposed to adding to the deficit.
It appears like everything the leadership and the administration wants to do will run afoul of that ideology. They’ll have to pay for construction of a border wall (at least, initially), and their tax reforms will dramatically lower revenue. Trump wants to ramp up defense spending considerably, and it will be hard to avoid losing money when they screw around with the Affordable Care Act.
Before they even get to that, they need to jack up spending to keep the government operating past April 28th, and then they’ll have to raise the debt ceiling shortly thereafter. We’ve seen how difficult it is to get the Republicans to keep the government open and to raise the debt ceiling without relying on Democratic votes. Will enough of them swallow their pride and capitulate on these issues now that the leaders won’t have to go begging for Pelosi’s support?
There are some other items that the House must do, like reauthorizing the FAA before September is over, and then they have a goal of passing all the appropriations bills by that point, too. Another time sink is the need to do two budgets in one year, which is necessitated by their strategy of using two budget reconciliation bills to achieve the repeal of Obamacare without needing 60 votes in the Senate.
In the Senate, it’s not just a Supreme Court battle that will divert their attention. The administration is behind schedule in nominating people to serve at the Assistant and Deputy levels in every department of government. Unless the Democrats allow most of these folks to get confirmed with a voice vote, debating their qualifications will chew up a lot of the legislative clock. And don’t forget that there are district and appeals court judges that the Republicans are keen to confirm.
There isn’t any time to deal with things that might crop up or to address things, like the opioid epidemic, that are pressing on the voters’ minds. We’ve been focused on Trump’s early executive orders, and his Muslim Ban has been failing in court. There doesn’t look to be any space in the schedule to actually legislate on new immigration policies.
One member of the House made a good observation:
“Think about it. We have two appropriations [processes] to do before Sept. 30, plus tax reform, the wall, infrastructure,” the GOP lawmaker said. “Any two would be Herculean.”
“My idea that I’ve shared with a few people is we’ve got to prioritize these things,” he went on. “If you only get seven big things half-way down the road, that’s nothing … so you’ve got to prioritize.”
It’s not clear what would get prioritized out, however.
Ironically, their absolute cluelessness about how to repeal and replace Obamacare may be their biggest problem.
The House Freedom Caucus and their conservative allies are growing increasingly frustrated at the slow pace of repeal. And they say the entire 2017 agenda will remain stalled until ObamaCare is officially scrapped.
“It is an incredibly ambitious agenda, and it will be impossible to deliver on those promises until Obamacare repeal is signed into law,” said Dan Holler, a spokesman for the outside conservative group Heritage Action. “Repeal is understandably the first order of business, but the lack of legislative activity on repeal pushes back every other priority that members may have.
“They need to move on Obamacare repeal. Now.”
But just saying that they need to do it doesn’t magically give them solutions for how to do it. They seem to have come to the realization that they can’t repeal it without replacing it, and that means that repeal cannot be done ‘now.’
Some of this might have been easier to accomplish if the administration had reached out to at least some Democrats. But it’s hard to imagine how the Trump administration and the congressional Republicans could have done more to assure that almost no Democrats will work with them.
Particularly on tax reform, infrastructure and immigration, the Democrats could have been enticed into cooperation if meaningful concessions were offered and if the Democratic base hadn’t been completely alienated.
Instead, the Republicans will have to go it completely alone. They may change the rules of the Senate less because the Democrats are obstructing and more because they need to make the change to buy back some time.
They’ll make progress in destroying this country and hurting our most vulnerable people at every turn, but on the legislative front they are in deep trouble.
So, that’s my dose of optimism to counter some the pessimism I’ve been laying on you of late.
So…. We’re being buffered by baffled incompetence? Bette than malignant methodical competence, for sure.
Very astute point.
It reminds me of an old joke: “Democrats say the world is unfair…and Republicans make sure that it is.”
In this case it’s “Republicans say Government doesn’t work…and then make sure that it doesn’t.”
“Where is ALEC when you really need it?”
The fact that Trump’s EOs have sputtered a bit is a good sign. Maybe it will teach him that he’s not actually a king and his edicts must be analyzed and approved by parties other than his sycophant team.
And the ineptitude of said team and their idiot leader will also keep things mired in pesky things like existing laws and rules. They may abolish those as quickly as they can, but there are processes involved. And with resistance from the Democrats, everything gets bogged down.
And that’s where we push our Democratic reps to stand up on every single issue. We have to present a wall of NO that keeps them scrambling. Trump can’t stand defiance, so let’s double down and drive him crazy.
Well said, although holding out any hope that the old dog will realize he has to learn some new tricks is I believe a faint hope indeed.
But that’s just it: ” … double down and drive him crazy”. Isn’t the definition of insanity “doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”?
confirmed, as seems exceedingly likely) for his occupation of — as you put it well — “Merrick Garland’s stolen seat on the Supreme Court.”
Won’t happen (who listens to me?), but would be great to see message discipline forbidding reference to “Justice Gorsuch” in favor of “Occupant (of Merrick Garland’s rightful seat) Gorsuch [or whomever]”.
Naw, just say “alt-Justice Gorsuch” — much snappier and with all sorts of useful overtones.
it’s any “snappier” or endowed with more useful overtones than “Occupant Gorsuch”.
Happy to see them alternated in rotation, though.
Well, our heroic “conservative” Repubs have only been in charge of the House for 6 straight years now, and for only 12 of the 16 years before that. They can’t be expected to have learned such arcane and complicated matters as appropriations legislation and budget reconciliations, despite talking about it endlessly.
They are proven slow learners, sadly afflicted with both ADD and Conservative Brain Syndrome (CBS), a debilitating condition (usually gender based) for which, once (self)contracted, there is no known cure. But even without these sad personal handicaps (to which one is oh-so-sympathetic), legislatin’ is HardWork!(tm)
Can’t our Dems be expected to lend a helping hand to this deserving bunch of (hate-filled) losers? Or should they basically go back and reread the accounts of the first 100 Days of Obama and then replicate precisely the tactics that our beloved Repubs themselves pulled when a popular vote winning prez was elected?
Payback should be a bitch and there is absolutely no way that the slightest aid and comfort should be given to the Repub enemy on any vote. “Conservatives” wanted to control the gub’mint, now they do. Let’s see the votes on the extremist wishlist, Ryan. Where’s that Hundred Days Agenda to Save The Country? Did the dog eat it? Was it accidentally used to wipe the baby? Let’s see how you are going to cut taxes on Job Creators, yet refuse to raise the debt ceiling. Bring it on.
Dem votes? Those should be a rare as a Repub making a factually accurate statement on climate. The most an elected Dem should do is vote “abstain” on anything but National Cheese Week and renaming the post office in Shitsville. All Repub votes, all Repub.
You’re in charge, Conman Ryan. You wanted to break all the norms, so no whining. Let’s see the moves. God knows you’ve had more than enough time to practice them before the mirror. It’s showtime….so get out there and dance, you rightwing turd.
Your post makes perfect sense, so I have very little hope that the Dems in Congress will be smart enough to see the merit of making the Repubs OWN EVERYTHING THAT IS DONE.
I am so frustrated with the Dem leadership — sometimes it is like they don’t even care. Thankfully Warren stirs stings up from time-to-time, otherwise I would forget there are any real Democrats in Congress.
We also need to tar Trump as a loser. He backed down to the Chinese, he does not seem to plan to take the emergency stay to the SCOTUS. This also helps against congressional GOP because they are acting subservient to a loser.
Though today is the day Trumps heirs are religiously absent so Bannon rules unchallenged until sundown.
Not a loser, but specifically, weak. ‘Bannon is the real power’ is key to this. It makes Trump, and through him, the administration look weak.
Administration sources claimed Trump did not like the SNL skit where Spicer was portrayed by a woman….because it made Spicer look weak.
IMO this administration will suffer from extremely high turnover at the top.
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Obama tried to warn them. Atwater too if one goes back a ways but they couldn’t even begin to hear over the roar of their greed and cynicism. They decided to play politics and the raw power game instead. Now may they reap the whirlwind they so richly deserve.
Ryan has talked a lot about his “legislative agenda”, which includes cataclysmic items like the return to Bush’s massive tax cuts for the rich (disguised, as usual, as tax reform); privatizing Medicare and savaging Social Security. Those are the yuuge changes but even the relatively more modest changes are causing big public blowback. And that’s without considering the big divisions you describe in the GOP coalition. The chaotic Trump Administration also will slow down the agenda.