Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona is what passes for a moderate Republican these days. Few senators who weren’t running for president themselves were as outspoken as Flake about the shortcomings of Donald Trump. Yet, he seems well pleased with Trump’s nomination of Neil Gorsuch to serve on the Supreme Court and he decided to write an editorial explaining why he supports Gorsuch and also why he thinks the Democrats should refrain from filibustering him. You might be interested in reading his reasoning or you might not, but I want you to focus on his summation:
Senate Democrats’ decision to filibuster Judge Gorsuch is a sad commentary on this institution and reflects the breakdown in comity that once characterized this body. I hope they change their mind. We need this good man on the court.
There’s a simple acknowledgment that if the Democrats do not change their mind then Gorsuch will not be on the Court. There’s no threat that the filibuster will be removed. There’s not any mention that this might even be a possibility.
John Yoo and Saikrishna “Sai” Bangalore Prakash also wrote an editorial on Gorsuch’s nomination and they also failed to mention that the filibuster might be taken away from the Democrats. Their reasoning is contentious and they don’t even try to build a supporting case for it. They suggest that Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s announcement that the Democrats will filibuster the nomination “signals the success, not the failure, of Judge Neil Gorsuch’s Supreme Court nomination” and “the sense that Gorsuch is going to be confirmed is nearly universal, making these hearings as exciting as a Soviet show trial.”
The premise here goes unstated, but their argument is that at least eight Democrats will vote to end the filibuster. They don’t try to identify a single one of those eight Democrats, though, or to explain why Schumer would take the position he has if he didn’t think his caucus would hold behind him.
This is all fairly strange, because the question that should be asked is if the Republicans will follow through on their threats to use the so-called “nuclear option” to eliminate the filibuster if the Democrats actually do hold firm. In case you don’t know the basics of how that would work, the Republicans would need a majority to change the rules, and that means that they’d have to convince at least 50 of their 52 member caucus to vote to kill the filibuster. If three members are too traditionalist to make the move, then the filibuster would stay and Gorsuch’s nomination would be defeated.
Right now, those who are talking about the nuclear option are talking pretty tough.
Arizona senator John McCain hinted Thursday afternoon that he’s ready to confirm Judge Neil Gorsuch with a simple majority if Senate Democrats take the unprecedented step of filibustering a Supreme Court nominee. Asked what Republicans should do if 41 or more Democrats try to block Gorsuch, McCain told THE WEEKLY STANDARD: “I think we’ll address it when it happens. None of us want to do it, but we’re going to confirm Gorsuch.”
Earlier Thursday, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina also signaled that he’s willing to confirm Neil Gorsuch with a simple majority. “Whatever it takes to get him on the court, I will do,” Graham said when asked on the Mike Gallagher radio show about eliminating the 60-vote threshold for Supreme Court nominees, a rules change sometimes known as the “nuclear option.”
As I mentioned last week, the Democrats don’t need a tool that breaks the first time the try to use it, so losing the filibuster isn’t an actual concern if it’s never going to be able to block an objectionable Justice anyway. But they’d like to actually block this nominee so they should go out of their way to avoid helping make the Republicans’ case for eliminating the filibuster.
And what’s their case?
Because he’s so unobjectionable, objecting to [Gorsuch] reeks of obstruction for the sake of obstruction. If Gorsuch can’t get confirmed, no one can get confirmed. Which means any Republican who refuses to nuke the filibuster would be effectively deciding that Scalia’s seat will remain vacant until 2019 at least.
This is why I said the following:
But, as I said, beating Gorsuch isn’t the point, just as beating Robert Bork wasn’t the point. The point is to get a more moderate Justice, not to just keep filibustering every nominee that Trump sends down Pennsylvania Avenue. They need to be very clear that they’ll confirm someone, eventually, provided that they have a big say in who that someone is.
In other words, they can’t hold their caucus together for four years on a plan to leave a seat indefinitely vacant on the Supreme Court. They’re going to have to concede Trump’s right and his obligation to fill the seat. But they do have the leverage to insist that they are consulted on who that judge will be and that the judge is widely acceptable within their caucus. The Democrats’ strategy should be aimed at protecting the American people and particularly their base of supporters, and they have to use all the power they have to do it. That means they filibuster Gorsuch and they stand united. But it also means that they go to Trump and say that they’re not going to leave the seat vacant until 2019 provided that they all come to an agreement on a more acceptable candidate for the position.
The Republicans will keep saying that if Gorsuch is not acceptable then no one will be acceptable, and that this justifies changing the rules. The Democrats have to cut that avenue of argument off at the pass, and if they’re sincere about it they may be able to convince three Republican senators not to blow up the filibuster rule.
Ultimately, a position of intransigent blocking of any and all nominees isn’t sustainable and it will force the GOP to change the rules. The Democrats should remember that getting Justice Kennedy instead of Justice Bork was a victory worth winning. And the Republicans should remember what they did to Merrick Garland and that they’ll want the filibuster one day when a Democrat is president again.
In other words, they can’t hold their caucus together for four years on a plan to leave a seat indefinitely vacant on the Supreme Court. They’re going to have to concede Trump’s right and his obligation to fill the seat.
The GOP stole that seat, if they seat someone. Schumer should keep that seat vacant for as long as he can, which is presumably until Trump is gone and the Democrats regain the majority.
You know as well as I do that it’s not up to Schumer. He can sell his caucus on my plan. He cannot sell them on yours.
I’m not so sure. The argument is obvious. Garland was a reasonable compromise. You stole the seat. It’s Garland or no one or blow up the fuckin’ filibuster and don’t expect it to be there when you want it.
Is this the best strategy? I don’t know. Maybe not if we could get the equivalent of Garland. But my sense is the best we’re gonna do is end the filibuster and hold our team together anyway.
Manchin and Heitkamp could vote 95% of the time with the GOP but we all know next year that the GOP will paint both as the second coming of Chairman Mao no matter what they do. When will both get it through their damn heads? Even so, the rest of the caucus knows damn well that it was stolen. And the Democratic electorate knows it too.
Also the base will rebel if they use less that scorched earth tactics. Or at least that was the sentiment at the yime of the amnouncement.
The Democrats should be focusing on at least two points:
Of course, most of the American electorate doesn’t even know who Garland is since the Democrats couldn’t be bothered to make it a campaign issue.
Force the Republicans to end the filibuster is the only win they will get. Short term lots of pain, long term the country is better off without it.
Does anyone doubt McConnell was planning to do exactly that if Clinton won?
One admirable thing about the Republicans compared to the Democrats is that they play the game all the way down to the end. They take every foul, use every timeout, stall, full court press, blitz, etc. They only ask themselves what is the path that provides the opportunity to win, even if a loss is inevitable.
That’s why McConnell kept Scalia’s seat open, not because he expected to win, but because however remote the possibility of a 3% popular vote loss might still lead to an EC victory.
I say Democrats keep the sear open as long as possible. Who knows what the midterms next year might bring?
I don’t know why this is hard to understand, but they can’t keep the seat open indefinitely if at all. That’s what the nuclear option is.
You make the nominee answer the question not one of them has answered since bork
Do you support Roe?
This isn’t complicated.
Their nominees lie because they can’t answer that question
Yes, you are so wise. Blatant litmus testing is certain to dissuade use of the nuclear option.
Republican radicalism combined with Democratic fecklessness in the face of it has completely destroyed the left’s ability to think clearly on parts of the agenda.
It’s like Trump’s tweets this morning about the Freedom Caucus. Oh yes, Mr. Trump, you’re totally never going to need them for your agenda ever again.
LULZ.
I don’t know how hard it is to read what I wrote.
Filibuster until one or more of the following happen:
Play the WHOLE string out. I know that’s completely enimical to the constitution of a Democratic politician/operative but don’t presuppose you know all the possible developments/ options that may occur.
That’s how McConnell stole the seat. He didn’t have a ‘strategy’ to steal the seat. He had a strategy to keep the seat open as long as possible and see what might develop – because there was no downside to doing it. And what developed was the freak election.
I know Democrats don’t think that way. Gore couldn’t wait 1 freaking night to concede in 2000. So my expectations are they will last until May, latest, it’s just not in their nature to take a hard line and stick to it. That’s it #1 doesn’t happen first in any case.
In my view they did it to drive presidential turnout. Trump would not have won had that seat not been sitting there like a giant stolen glob of plunder.
After how the GOP behaved in relation to President Obama’s nominee there is NO right and NO obligation to fill the seat with Trump’s nominee. Either the filibuster is broken or the President will need 60 votes from his own party to fill a vacancy. This is what the GOP decided in 2016.
Please to be identifying the 45-55 y/o federalist hack that can be safely defined as “moderate.” Such a creature doesn’t exist, hence the need to keep the seat empty for as long as humanly possible. 60 votes or go the fuck home.
Repubs were able to tie their unprecedented obstruction to an end point: the upcoming election. Thus, their obstruction could be presented as “reasonable”. While they did muse about refusing confirmation of any HRC nominee, this was of course theoretical and passed under the radar screen of 98% of American rubes.
Dems face the same situation as they now seek to obstruct a nominee. They need to establish a conclusion to the obstruction. That’s what Booman’s advice accomplishes, it creates an endpoint–a nominee that satisfies Repubs, yet results from Dem consultation.
The problem is that no such creature likely exists in the federal judiciary. If Garland didn’t fit the bill, it’s questionable anyone can. In order to be a Repub judicial nominee today, you have to be a youngish white rightwing extremist, certified by the Federalist Society. This organization is sort of the rightwing Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval for judicial extremists.
So Dems would likely have to create a short list of who they are talking about if they want to push the “consultation” strategy. And the audience is surely the few Repubs like Flake and Hatch and Collins who might quail at blowing up the filibuster forever in order to accomplish McConnell’s Stolen Seat gambit. The audience is not Der Trumper, he has to be presented with a fait accompli that he has to live with.
If senate Repubs were reasonable, they would be willing to acknowledge that it isn’t fair (politically) for them to obstruct a nominee (of a legitimate prez) that would have given the other party control of the Court, get a popular vote loser as prez, yet confirm his 48 year old conservative extremist Alito-clone replacement. It’s not reasonable for them to get a grand slam in this situation. But they are not reasonable people. And “fairness” is an alien concept to them (as well as their judicial nominees, haha)
It doesn’t help that the hearings went badly (as usual), with Dems sitting there listening seriously and earnestly to this hollow, smug, privileged young white male extremist blather absolutely nothing for 3 straight days. Refusing to answer a single question in an intellectually honest fashion. Repeating the Roberts’ empty seminar method. Refusing to give the slightest indication of what motivates his thinking and and analysis. Hell, they didn’t even embarrass the slobbering Scalia-lover with seminar lists of Scalia’s all time worst decisions. Or if they did, I missed it.
These Repub Supreme Court nominees basically insult the intelligence of the committee and Dems sit there and take it, frowning occasionally. Why not start yelling that they are not going to sit there and listen to meaningless drivel, pablum and bromides? That he’s provided no basis for confirmation? Cut the extremist off and say he’s not answering the question and they don’t need a phony tutorial on existing precedent? Do SOMETHING to create some fireworks, Jesus. Insult him, for God’s sake, since he’s insulting you. But no. Nothing.
If Dems can’t come up with a message on this one, I give up.
Let’s drop the claim that the Supreme Court seat was stolen. The Republicans blocked Garland. McConnell chose to do it in the way most disrespectful to Pres. Obama. But had he followed the usual process, he had the votes to filibuster or to defeat the nomination in a floor vote. There is no reason to believe that had hearings been held and votes taken, Garland would be on the court. McConnell was not going to let that happen and he had the power to stop it one way or the other. I’ve not seen anything about why McConnell has had such deep animosity, such personal animosity, for Obama, from the start of his presidency. I have a pretty good guess, though.
I’m not buying your argument. The Democrats have to take the strongest possible position regarding the vacancy on the Supreme Court after McConnell acted unconstitutionally blocking any consideration of Obama’s choice. You want a compromise candidate, how about Garland?
I especially think a filibuster is appropriate now given the increasing evidence that Trump colluded with the Russians and should be gone. He should be denied the right to appoint any Supreme Court justice until that issue is resolved.
It’s time for the Democrats to start playing real hardball. Republicans did it for eight years. Moreover, if and when the Democrats obtain power in one or both of the branches of Congress, they should make life a living hell for the Republicans. In the Senate I would start with a motion to censure McConnell for what he did with the Garland nomination. That fucker needs to understand that there are consequences for his abuses of power.
I feel we are dealing with people on that side of the aisle who are outlaws in every sense of the word. They deserve no quarter.
If I were Trump, I would let Gorsuch get filibustered and then nominate someone else – someone who would enrage Democrats. Dare Democrats to filibuster again. If they don’t, you got a real fire-breather in without (yet) having to break the filibuster. You could actually spin this as Democratic consent and therefore complicity. If you do, you have a really strong argument that the Democrats will filibuster anyone, and you can eliminate without a problem. Maybe a problem later, but cross that bridge then. This is better than killing the filibuster now, because your argument that Dems filibuster anyone looks stronger and because you will have gotten in the most extreme representative of your position available.
Luckily, I don’t think Trump is this smart, nor that anyone with his ear reads this site.
That’s the other problem with the filibuster. Not only could it break the first time you use it. If it doesn’t break, you probably can’t use it more than once – perhaps more than once per President.
well there’s there are arguments against him that can be used to delay for a while – judicial temperament angle against him
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/jurisprudence/2017/03/neil_gorsuch_s_arrogant_frozen
_trucker_opinion_shows_he_wants_to_be_like.html