I am getting a little frustrated with how elements of the #TrumpRussia story are continually confirmed and expanded upon without giving us much more clarity. For example, today’s Guardian story provides more insight into which countries were observing disturbing and suspicious contacts between Trump figures and known or suspected Russian spies, but it doesn’t do anything to help us understand why these contacts were so concerning.
For example, we now know that Australia, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Estonia, and the British were all bothered enough by observed Trump/Russia meetings and communications that they separately shared information about it with our intelligence community. But we’re left in the dark about what any of these countries learned.
All these countries are continually tracking Russians who they suspect or know to be covert operators. All of them noticed people of this type coming into contact with folks in Trump’s orbit. All of them found these contacts to be suspicious enough to warrant sharing the information with the Americans. And, of course, Christopher Steele discovered the same thing even though he was retired from MI6 and working in the private sector without the benefit of the signals intelligence or satellite technology, etc., that the national agencies could employ.
In Steele’s case, we have some of his so-called dodgy dossier, which is mostly un-redacted. But we don’t have the transcripts of intercepted electronic communications or geo-positioning data or other travel records. We don’t have the results of any forensic financial investigations.
What we can easily surmise is that a pattern was widely observable of Trump folks coming into contact with Russian operatives. This could result if Russia was the instigator of all these contacts, and we might pick up in this way on a concerted effort on their part to penetrate Trump’s inner circle even if the effort was ultimately unsuccessful.
This would be the innocent explanation. It’s now clear, though, that at least in the case of Carter Page, our intelligence community was successful in convincing a FISC judge that he was acting wittingly as a Russian spy. This indicates that the penetration effort was remarkably successful, since Page was named by Trump as one of only a small handful of his foreign policy advisers. Michael Flynn was a potentially gigantic penetration, as he went on to be named the National Security Adviser. Paul Manafort came forward with an offer to work for the Trump campaign for free, despite being a highly mercenary political consultant in all other areas of his career. We know Manafort was in the pay of Putin-controlled oligarchs and Ukrainian officials and subject to blackmail the entire time he was working for Trump.
This is all very substantial penetration, and it seemed to have had obvious results in terms of the positions Trump took throughout the campaign. It was too obvious, in my opinion. Perhaps this is why many analysts suspect the goal was less to control an administration they had little reason to believe would ever be formed than it was to split the Republican foreign policy establishment and sow discord, with the hope of undermining support for the sanctions.
Still, we’re stuck at this level of speculation because we know that there were extensive contacts but we know little about what was communicated during these contacts, or who initiated them, or what the Trump folks actually did after making these contacts.
If you step back for a minute, though, you can try to imagine how our intelligence community must have felt when Trump simply refused to believe them when they presented him with evidence of Russian meddling and efforts to penetrate his campaign. Imagine what they thought when he named Michael Flynn as his National Security Adviser despite the fact that he was one of the main suspects and had been since at least 2015. And, finally, imagine how they felt when they caught Flynn repeatedly communicating with the Russian ambassador (on the day the Obama administration announced reprisals for election interference) and sending the message not to respond or retaliate because the policy would soon be reviewed and probably reversed.
The first step was for the intelligence community to leak to David Ignatius of the Washington Post that they were aware of Flynn’s contacts with the Russian ambassador. The second step was to the contact the White House Counsel’s office directly and not so gently suggest that Michael Flynn was lying about his contacts and now subject to Russian blackmail. When neither hint was taken, the third and final step was to leak the content of Flynn’s call which promptly resulted in his resignation.
That was some pretty extreme stuff to do to an incoming administration, but fully justified based on their investigation of Flynn. I’m not sure why they didn’t cut him off at the pass by revoking his security clearances before he could take the job in the first place. That’s the step they took with Robin Townley, one of Flynn’s top appointments to the National Security Council.
Our allies are now saying that our intelligence community was too slow to heed their warnings, but the explanation is that they’re trained not to investigate American citizens or to get too close to ongoing political campaigns. You can see why by how Trump’s supporters react to each new revelation, as if Obama was coordinating all this surveillance of Team Trump himself. Personally, I think everyone was lulled into complacency by the polls which indicated all along that Trump had little chance of actually winning. That made people more inclined to think the problem would in some ways resolve itself and in others could be addressed later on when it was not going to be such a sensitive matter.
When Trump actually won, that’s when the intelligence community finally got serious. But their drip-drip-drip leaks are not enough. We need the details.
Yes, the details are important.
But just what is known is bad enough. Manafort, Page, Flynn all received money of one form or another from Russian ‘entities’. All worked for Trump, one was appointed National Security Advisor!
Now imagine if this was Clinton.
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Clinton would be wearing hand cuffs.
I’m sure it’s just a case of a few overly zealous men whose passion for the promotion of peace and friendship between our two great peoples drew them first to Russia, and then to cross a few not-very-carefully drawn lines.
Just job makers going about what they do….creating jobs!
What, you hate capitalism?
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To me this whole thing is like a balloon that is being filled with water. I keep thinking that this drip, drip, drip is going to eventually fill the balloon to the point where it will finally burst, and we will begin to see and hear the entire back story, in all its illegal and possibly treasonous detail. At the same time I can’t help but be worried that this will be another case where the peripheral characters end up taking the fall, and the entire trail is not explored to its inevitable and obvious end; much like it appears the Bridge-gate scandal has played out.
How much longer might we have to wait is really impossible to say. I cannot help but think that behind the scenes there are people working overtime to create a buffer zone between all these smoking guns and the Golfer In Chief. And you still have the protective shield of the Republican caucus to keep the investigative dogs at bay on the Congressional side. It would appear that this whole web is just too massive and too intertwined to tamp it down entirely. But I could certainly see it being satisfied with a few high profile scalps and a serious attempt to say, “That’s enough”. If we get to the point where people are ready to speak, under oath, then there is likely to be surge of pushback and attempts to muddy the water. Not to mention that the knives will come out in full force in frantic acts of self preservation. That might well be the breaking point we have to wait for. It would seem in all of this that Trump has no allies to speak of, that are not Russian. Certainly no one who is willing to take a massive hit for his sake, in order to protect the office of the President.
One word: Nixon.
As information continues to come out, it sure comes to mind more every day, doesn’t it?
But where’s our Sam Ervin? How can Watergate-level Congressional hearings get launched when the GOP controls both houses?
The “drip, drip, drip” of daily disclosures has its own momentum. The truth will out.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/its-like-they-have-nixons-playbook_us_58bc6f30e4b02eac8876d00f
“everyone was lulled into complacency…”
Well, it was a strange sort of complacency given that the FBI director was obviously fully aware of these Trumperite/Russia connections when he decided to do what he could to throw the election to Der Trumper via the October bogus email surprise (while clamping down on any suggestion that maybe the rubes should know about the Russian Dressing connection before the election as well.) So we now have a constitutional calamity largely of Comey’s own making.
I can’t remember when the facts of St Reagan’s pre-election connivance with Khomeini and the hostages became established. I certainly don’t remember any Congressional investigations soon after his election. If the senate investigation of the Trumperites can’t sweep up and reveal the desired details to the landscape that is already known, then they are complicit in the caper as well, and it will be up to the historians over the decades to reveal what happened after nothing can be done about it.
In a system as fundamentally broken and wrecked as ours, one shouldn’t hope for (or expect) even minimal competence in the area of public service. Certainly there is no will for Congressional oversight of Trumper. The more our elected officials bleat that “we will get to the bottom of this”, the less likely I am to believe it. We are degenerate and cannot reform ourselves at this point. Perhaps the truth will out someday; there are too many involved across the entire globe for it to remain hidden.
Trumper as already brain farted out that the sanctions have “hurt many many people” and by this he must mean his Russian mobster connections, although he wasn’t very specific. God forbid of course that the corporate media would start connecting the dots on Putin’s desire to end the sanctions and Trumper’s enthusiasm for the same end.
Der Trumper is an illegitimate prez two times over, yet he must be defended to the death by today’s Party Over Country Repubs. Dems are also pretty tepid in their rhetoric and condemnation of Trumper and are loath to declare him illegitimate. The remaining sane members of the country basically have no idea what to do at this point, and the elites appear simply to be waiting on events while the wisps of treason are slow walked. It will have to get much much worse before there is any stomach in DC to look into how this political criminal came to be “elected”.
Your commentary is good but you didn’t discuss the other mystery: the possibility of money laundering to bail Trump out of his debts, in addition to the political gamesmanship you discussed. The money laundering introduces all whole other set of actors including Wilbur Ross, the Riboflavin guy (whatever his name is) who paid a huge amount for a Trump FL house, Felix Sater, Donald, Jr. etc. I still think that story has legs (or tentacles) too.
that is Tim Hogan’s theory – I linked a couple of items from his twitter feed a while back. that no one expected T to win, he was being paid to weaken Clinton; that he was to be paid after election, but since he won cannot receive his payout (a few theories about Kushner’s attempts to get it for him) meanwhile T businesses are floundering.
some pretty interesting things on twitter btw by ppl who seem to know what they’re about. someone even found Comey’s twitter feed.
“For example, we now know that Australia, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Estonia, and the British were all bothered enough by observed Trump/Russia meetings and communications that they separately shared information about it with our intelligence community.”
You’re joking, no? The Dutch contribution is only the connection to a global Internet hub and satellite reception. All mass data is fed into GCHQ data centers and linked to NSA centers in the US. The Dutch have a separate agreement with the Israeli Mossad and by extension Unit 8200. Just like the NSA supplies raw data to the Israelis. Has been advertised for over a decade now.
Like I heard months ago, Dutch intelligence was one of the contributors to the Putin-Trump scam in US election politics. After so much focus on US intelligence assets and no conclusive proof, I’m just glad we’re not talking about a source for a terror attack on a western metropole. So much incompetence. So much data. So many lies.
Holland is also known as a hub in providers of the dark web and major spam networks.
○ Al Jazeera investigation and documentary: “Spy Merchants”
Btw The Ukraine and Baltic states are well equipped in cyber warfare with rival and archenemy Russia. Can one differentiate between sources in Ukraine, Moldavia and Russia? Even in level of corruption, these nations are leading. Intelligence working for the state or any oligarch paying the price. Who knows what is fact or fiction in today’s news cycle?
You’re claiming to know what information the Dutch passed to US intelligence? You believe it was limited to the Trump / Alfa Bank backchannel? Based on what?
. . . explain.
Oui doesn’t construct an argument.
Oui just links.
Figure it out yourself.
Booman, you can point out this sort of stuff until blue in the face, but you will not persuade people who believe nothing but a recorded call by Trump, or a memo from Trump, will serve as proof.
You must be kidding. Even that would not do. The thing about building impenetrable deep state power conspiracies, and tin foil hat anti Americanism is that it can cover every contingency.
They would just say the tape was faked. And cite a time in the past where the IC did something similar as proof.
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you aren’t persuaded by the info we already have?
Psssssst — sarcasm alert…..
you act as if I give a fuck about people who can’t be persuaded.
cf. “Grab ’em by the pussy” video.
If that didn’t do it, what possibly could?
Not even the proverbial getting caught in flagrante delicto with a dead girl or a live boy, I’m thinkin’.
Who whom? I’m getting this funny feeling – who was playing whom? Maybe these gonifs were playing a Russian spy agency … it is probably far from the first time that they had fiddled a bureaucracy, maybe not the first time for this one. It does seem like they got the huge data crunching assets of a foreign power to work for them for free: Trump campaign didn’t spend nearly as much as HRC’s, right?
I don’t think so.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/1/9/1618540/-Was-Donald-Trump-bailed-out-of-bankruptcy-by-Russia-
crime-bosses
Also, you really flatter Trump & Co. to suggest they might be any kind of a match for Russian intelligence.
You don’t play with these guys.
we seem to be already into a constitutional crisis, everyone is upset and T is bombing things hoping to distract.
Not just distract. It was an opportunity for Trump to distance himself dramatically from Putin, and it reflects the fact that he (or his advisors, anyway, like Jared Kushner) finlly understand the urgency of doing this.
But it was a desperate move. First of all, it won’t work, because the evidence will just keep on coming. Second of all, he just pissed off the people that expect him to be their man. They have all kinds of stuff on him. He just played his strongest card, the fact that he is president of the U.S. But that won’t really help him. He’s toast, sooner or later.
It’s just like Trump to get himself on the shit list of both American AND Russian intelligence. And his congressional agenda is fucked as well.
indeed, though could well be the Rs idea. just that Nikki Haley didn’t get the memo. no damage at all to the airfield. we’ll see what happens in the next days.
I agree the info will come out – so much must be on tape.
when I write constitutional crisis I’m thinking emoluments clause – there’s this from David Corn
there’s also this type of thing
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-national-doral-miami-paint-lawyers-fees
plus T’s launching attacks that are illegal according to our constitution
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/report-us-preemptive-strike-north-korea-nuclear-test