Trump: ‘Big Effect’ On French Election … No Interference!

9 Comments

1. 

   Oui on April 21, 2017 at 2:15 pm

   Obama’s call hints at support for Macron in French election | CTV |

   Former U.S. President Barack Obama has spoken by telephone with France’s Emmanuel Macron and is hinting at support for the upstart, middle-way presidential candidate.

    « click for more info »

   Macron faces off against anti-establishment populists and other candidates in a first-round vote Sunday. The outcome is
   being closely watched for signs that Europe is moving toward nationalist candidates who advocate the European Union’s dissolution.

   ○ Press review: Champs-Élysées attack is ‘valuable propaganda’ for far right

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     The Voice In The Wilderness on April 21, 2017 at 8:47 pm

     Maybe Obama is Putin’s agent.

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       The Voice In The Wilderness on April 22, 2017 at 11:10 am

       Oui, that was snark.

2. 

   Oui on April 22, 2017 at 1:36 pm

   Emmanuel Macron faces a really big problem if he becomes French president

   Currently riding high in the polls, Emmanuel Macron, the self-styled “beyond left and right” candidate for the French election, has been tipped to become the next president in May.

   But if he does, will he actually run the country? This question might sound odd but the nuances of the French political system put Macron in a spot of bother. The president derives their power from the support of a majority in the lower house of parliament, the National Assembly. Macron was a minister for the Socialist Party government but quit in 2016 to form his own political movement. Now he doesn’t even have a party, let alone a majority.

   Although the constitution of the French Fifth Republic, created by Charles De Gaulle in 1958, extended presidential powers, it did not enable the president to run the country.

   There are only a few presidential powers that do not need the prime minister’s authorisation. The president can appoint a prime minister, dissolve the National Assembly, authorise a referendum and become a “temporary dictator” in exceptional circumstances imperiling the nation. They can also appoint three judges to the Constitutional Council and refer any law to this body. While all important tasks, this does not, by any stretch of the imagination, amount to running a country. The president can’t suggest laws, pass them through parliament and then implement them without the prime minister.  

   Earlier diaries concerning the French and their presidential Election2017 …

   ○ Opinion polling and the French Elections
   ○ French Election: Crunch Time – Part 2

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     Oui on April 22, 2017 at 1:37 pm

     Need to choose two parties: VVD and PVV in addition choose polls per quarter (kwartaal) in linked website:

     ○ Ipsos Dutch polls – trend

     The party of Geert Wilders used to have an underscore in the polls before the election due to hesitation of persons to affiliate themselves with the anti-immigration party PVV of Geert Wilders. In the last few years, this has not sustained. The Dutch are very open about their views and backing of Geert Wilders.

     In the last general election it was the other way around. Due to a conflict with Erdogan of Turkey, the voters broke in favor of PM Mark Rutte of the VVD, the so-called benefit of being prime minister. Geert Wilders was left holding an empty bag.

3. 

   Oui on April 23, 2017 at 3:21 am

   More often the attacks do get intercepted. The attempt by the Islamic State to hold the French Election hostage on Sunday. It didn’t get the attention because of the Champ Elysée shooting on Thursday …

   France election terror attack plot: Isis flag and wig found alongside explosives at home of extremists | The Independent |

   Francois Molins, the Paris public prosecutor, would not confirm which candidate was targeted but confirmed the three frontrunners – Mr Fillon, Emmanuel Macron Marine Le Pen – had been alerted to the risk.

   “Investigators managed to locate the apartment,” Mr Molins told a news conference. He said a tip-off from another country indicated Merabet was likely to carry out an attack and was seeking to contact Isis militants, either to pledge allegiance or ask the group to claim responsibility for the planned attack.

   “These two radicalised men intended to commit in the very short-term – by that I mean in the coming days – an attack on French soil,” said the interior minister, Matthias Fekl.

   They were arrested on Tuesday morning at a flat they had been renting for less than three weeks in Marseille, where the Uzi, two handguns, ammunition, a hunting knife, a map of the city, a balaclava and a GoPro camera were found.

    « click for more info
   Counter-terrorist police and soldiers in Marseille at the scene of the raid. (Photo: AFP)

   An ISIS flag and Quran was discovered, as well as a mask associated with the Anonymous hacking collective and a chestnut wig, suggesting plans for a disguise.

   Mr Molins said jihadi propaganda was also found, alongside 3kg of homemade triacetone triperoxide (TATP) explosive drying in three packages – only one of which was ready for use.

   The volatile explosive, known as the “mother of Satan”, is cheap to make using commercially available chemicals but difficult to detect, and has become a trademark of Isis’ plots and attacks including in Brussels and Paris.

   ISIS has shared bomb-making manuals on how to manufacture the substance, while calling on supporters to wage terror attacks against countries in the US-led coalition bombing its ever-shrinking territory in Syria and Iraq.  

   ○ Une tentative d’attentat déjouée à la veille de la présidentielle | Le Figaro |

4. 

   Oui on April 23, 2017 at 7:09 am

   Before the Dutch election, the media expected a similar populist move as was seen in the UK referendum and the weirdest US presidential election ever. It did NOT happen! The populist anti-immigration party PVV of Geert Wilders disappointed.

   I expect a similar counter-move in the France election 2017. The FN of Marine Le Pen has peaked too early and she may hope to beat Fillon for the second spot for the run-off election. With the excentrics of Donald Trump in the first 100 days, the disappointments of high expectations and in the UK a conservative PM May who chooses party politics over the interest of a divided nation after the Brexit 2016 vote.

   ○ ‘We are all Brenda’ : Hilarious video of shocked woman reacting to General Election news sparks empathy
   ○ EU hopes snap election will boost May’s mandate | Politico |
   ○ Theresa May’s election `power grab’ slammed by EU’s Guy Verhofstadt | The Guardian |

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     Oui on April 23, 2017 at 11:18 am

     Exit poll result at noon after 28%
     Macron    24%
     Le Pen    22%
     Fillon    20.5%
     Mélanchon    18%
     Total voter turnout expected to be 80%, similar to 2012

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       Oui on April 23, 2017 at 1:50 pm

       How does France’s system of vote estimates work?

       Unlike many countries which operate exit polls asking people how they voted, the initial vote estimate in French elections – in use and steadily perfected since 1965 – is based on an actual vote count.

       Pollsters select about 200 polling stations around the country, in rural areas, small towns and urban agglomerations, carefully chosen to be as representative as possible of the country as a whole.

       The numbers are then run through a sophisticated computer program that adjusts them for past results and assorted variables, and produces a national vote estimate.

       ○ A watershed moment in French political history, “le 21 avril” in 2002