From the Guardian, a good summary:
From the Guardian, and I swear I have heard of another election with similar swings…. pic.twitter.com/i0EWiNz8Zl
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 9, 2017
So I predicted before the election 329-249. The actual result was 318-261. I missed the collapse of the SNP, but in general averaging the polls and then using the swing against the 2015 results worked well.
Which is not so good because the same analysis for the House suggests retaking it is unlikely. But that is a different election….
Another update:
Updated estimate . pic.twitter.com/3CSzoTSJQl
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 9, 2017
It is the same thing as the 2016 Election here in reverse. Get this. WOW. That was just the betting markets, which look like they were wrong.
WOW!!!! https://t.co/SmM1x5S5rn
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 9, 2017
I would note BBC has updated their estimate to 322-251. Close. https://t.co/OtaiKVqEyD
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 9, 2017
Mindblowing.
If it holds:
May is out
The SNP has collasped
And Corbyn has completed the biggest political history by FAR. My post below is based on a 7% popular vote loss. It is likely closer to 3.
And averaging polls doesn't work again…, and the models blow up (though I was close)https:/t.co/efnquD1y4T@gelliottmorris @DemFromCT pic.twitter.com/iWFi5mwNcS
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 8, 2017
A review of the polling.
Extrapolating the pop vote: the best polls were the most pro-labour, and far removed from the average. @DemFromCT @ForecasterEnten pic.twitter.com/kV7hBnp8En
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) June 8, 2017
This is not as good as the exit poll for labour in the races thus far.
Results so far:
Seats:
Lab: 4
Con: 1% change:
Lab: +6.6
Con: +9.8
UKIP: -12.6— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 8, 2017
7:22
BBC cumulative swing, after 9 seats. Conservatives +8, labour +9. That projects to 342 to 241.
Bravo Labour, bravo Jeremy Corbyn!
Pound drops once again – Theresa May prone to a soft Brexit deal with Europe. 🙂
Interesting to see which MPs lose their seat so unexpectedly … a major upset.
Polling once again the BIG losers.
Bravo!!!
And the knives that were going to come out for Bernie based on Corbyn failure will not come out.
If the results from the exit polls holds (and all parties are cautious about that) when they start counting the votes tomorrow things may get very interesting.
I hope the Liberal Democrats has the sense to stay in opposition even if (as the exit polls indicates) they plus Tories could get a narrow majority. Let the Tories try to rule in minority and prepare for the next election.
do UK exit polls have a reputation for accuracy?
Labour stealing all those Scottish seats from the SNP was definitely not predicted, and commenters other places don’t get why that would happen.
the charts you’ve been showing leave off the Northern Ireland seats; don’t the Unionist parties always support the Tories?
The 2015 UK exits weren’t fabulous, underestimating the Tories by 14 seats, but they were a lot better than the pre-election polling, and in the standard margin of error.
A small exit poll error will through the seat estimate off by 15 – note the number of close races.
I leave them off because I can’t predict them. But the conversation is already about an Irish Part part of a majority.
DUP got 10, and they do as a rule support the Tories. So probably a deal there. However, North Ireland desperatly needs the border to the rest of Ireland to stay open, in particular if the union with the rest of UK is to remain (Ireland has pushed the option of reunification within EU in the EU side of the negotiations and got an agrrement from the rest of holding the door open for future reunification within the EU). So DUP are expected to demand a Brexit deal that preserves their open border with the rest Ireland. That somewhat decreases the risk of hard Brexit without a deal. I say somewhat because the risk is mainly dependent on the UK’s ability to figure out what they want and do the negotiating in good and fast fashion. So far, such ability remains to be shown.
Sinn Fein got seven seats, and as a rule do not use them. It goes back to the war and MP’s loyalty oath to the Queen etc. So for practical purposes majority is 322 in this parliament.
Even with DUP in agrrement and Sinn Fein absent, the majority would be thin and MP’s has a history of disobeying the party whip. So a new election could come sooner rather then later.
On the BBC the DUP leader talked about the need for a soft border in Ireland.
There is another election coming I have no doubt.
It has been pointed out on Eurotrib that at least one MP appears to be at odds with the party leader:
UK election: Theresa May to form minority government backed by DUP
Though that depends on if “no special status” is more symbolic and a soft border etc (the Good Friday Agreement was written in a EU context and there might be snags there) can be achieved as long as the header does not say “special status”.
Don’t break out the champagne quite yet. This exit poll actually has almost the same result in terms of Tory vs. Left parties as the 2015 exit. That had 316 Tory vs. 307 LBR+LD+SNP. This is estimated as 314 Tory vs. 314 LBR+LD+SNP So May isn’t quite out of a job yet. There was a big move from SNP to LBR, which is interesting.
Absolutely a smack in the face for May and nasty Tory policies and a big boost for Corbyn and sensible Labour ones. That part’s all good. Given that Corbyn has indicated he won’t reverse Brexit, a wobbly minority Tory government might actually be the least bad outcome. They will take the heat for a probable mess from Brexit but won’t have the stability to hang on for 5 years to the point where voters might have accepted the mess and moved on.
True. Updated exit poll says Conservatives don’t get to a majority.
The seats are looking that way too. Right now Tories are down 12 (so 319) with almost 20 Tory marginals still out (and they’ve been losing almostt half of those). Since they’re poaching seats from the LD and the SNP, looks to me like they’ll make it to the 312 they need for a functional minority government, with support from the DUP and (ironically) Sinn Fein’s implicit support via abstention. Still very possible they won’t even manage that, though. They would be definitely out if it weren’t for splits on the left that got them 10 seats and counting in Scotland.
The seat projections have been oddly pro-Tory, if only by a few seats. Projecting net gain from this points for the Tories is certainly counterintuitive with all those marginals still out.
One constituency reported – stronger Labour vote than in 2015:
2015 results for comparison:
turnout 57%
Chi Onwurah (Lab) 19,301 (55%)
Con 6,628 (18.9%)
UKIP 5,214 (14.9%)
LD 2,218 (6.3%)
GRN 1,724 (4.9)
(question — why the automated italics in this comment thread?)
Two results, one Newcastle one from Sunderland. The BBC is saying the results suggest the exit poll is too favorable for Labour.
That reporting on Houghton and Sunderland is weird:
Who gives a crap if the margin between the Tories and Labour is smaller when the percentage for Labour increased? UKIP collapsed and the Tories picked up 70% of the UKIP racist/leave loss. Wasn’t that May’s objective?
It matters when you model close seats.
I agree a two way split is misleading.
But this one wasn’t supposed to be close. May expected to do to UKIP what Cameron did to LD in 2015. (Interesting that so far the Con-Remain voters are sticking with May and didn’t bolt to LD.)
What the UK press has been telling everyone for the past two years is that with Corbyn as the leader, Labour will lose voters. In the first two constituencies to report, Labour gained votes and increased its percentage.
This one will be harder for the cons to spin;
The swings are all over the place. As I write this the net swing is 0.8% to Labour but the range is something like from 9% to Tory to 14% to Labour. 0.8% would predict a marginal Tory government but not a functionally hung parliament. However, the wide swings mean this has been a realignment election so the usual swing analysis isn’t reliable and the final result could bend substantially in either direction.
Will take some time (and after the results are in) to figure this one out. So far all we have is Labour is stronger, voter turnout is up, and UKIP has collapsed. Looks as if the Con-remain stuck with their devil and the Blairites are either much smaller in numbers than the faction claims or they sucked it up and voted for the party.
I think fladem may have left an unclosed italics, because the last bit of the post which isn’t an HTML import is in italics.
Who would have thunk that letting the 500K party members pick their leader would yield better results than the old system where the members of the House of Lords and Commons got 2/3 voice in picking the leader? I have my share of problems with Corbyn, but he reflected Labour party values, as opposed to the third way candidates that the serious people said were needed to avoid the shortest suicide in history. Its early, but its looking like people are returning home from other leftish parties while not many Labourites are defecting to the Tories.
I think Blair must be drinking heavily tonight (no, not celebratively).
I’m picturing him on a fainting couch with smelling salts under his nose.
There was an intereview of a Blair type: very hard for him to credit Corbyn at all.
Did he sneer like a US conservadem?
Think maybe it’s time to scrap super-delegates?
Or will this scare the DNC to back to entirely super-delegates and outlaw primaries?
It’s 3:15am EST
Latest in from BBC analysis … the exit poll is proving quite accurate!
Labour 61 [+5] Conservatives 48 [-2] SNP 9 [-3]
○ LIVE results – The Guardian
It’s 5:45am EST
Latest in from BBC analysis … the exit poll is proving quite accurate!
○ Election results LIVE! – The Guardian
Con 270 [-11]
Lab 236 [+29]
LD 10 [+4]
SNP 33 [-18]
DUP 10 [+2]
Bigger than Clegg. From 1885 until today, Sheffield Hallam had never elected a Labour MP. Back in 2001 and 2005 (under the great Blair Labour party), in the three-way, Labour finished in third place at 12%. Interestingly as Labour crashed in 2010 and 2015, it did better in this constituency — coming in second in 2015 at just under 20%.
Hastings and Rye (constituency created in 1983) was Con until 1997 and Labour until 2010. Rudd’s 9.4% margin in 2015 down to almost nothing this time.
Much better results than I feared. I am going to have to reconsider my thoughts concerning Corbyn and his leadership style. Getting the youth to turn out likely mattered a whole lot – something we’ve forgotten in the US since 2008. In the meantime, I am trying to absorb the various bits of news. Seems some suggestions that even the mandate for Brexit is in question. Not sure what to make of that. Hoping some of our resident experts on the UK can weigh in on that one.
Brexit is in question because with a thin minority government the Tories will be at great risk of being forced into new elections in the midst of the resulting mess. With a substantial majority they would have been far more able to weather the mess they’re going to make and wait until things settle down for elections. Not now.
Exit polls are worthless in close elections apparently.
The Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland bails out Theresa May.
The question now is: Are all the Blairites now gone from Labour or will Corbyn face the same division that besets the US Democrats?
Easily the most interesting thing was watching interviews with MP’s who had revolted and tried to get Corbyn ousted.
Corbyn turned his personal numbers around, and he turned a 20 point deficit into a 2 going deficit.
You could literally see the Blairites struggling to see how to reconcile their past statements, the election, and their own ambition.
An amazing election.
Looks like the UK youth (under-35) turned out impressively, nicely answering some skeptical voices here who feared they would, as usual, not take time away from their hours hanging at the malt shoppe and local beatnik jazz clubs to go vote.
Non-official numbers from exit polls suggest a 56% turnout for that group, up 12 points from 2015, and not just in the major urban areas. It’s believed some 2/3s favored Labour.
Good to hear also that sellout LibDem Nick Clegg got slapped down by his constituents. And Home Sec Rudd nearly lost her job.
All in all about as favorable an outcome as I could have realistically hoped for.
The real shock is what happened in Scotland. Had the SNP vote held up, Labour would likely have formed some sort of minority government.
The Conservatives pick up 12 seats in Scotland 0 and absent that would have been on 307 seats. Labour plus SNP would have would have had about 310 absent that shift.
There was significant tactical voting in Scotland, and the SNP share of the vote was only 38%.
Which means Scottish Independence is probably dead for a while.
Should this end the argument of just how much of SNP’s vote share is actually geared toward independence, and how much is left wing? I supported the Scottish referendum and would have voted to leave, but what would attract me to SNP is their being a sufficiently left wing alternative in the eyes of a dying neoliberal Labour Party. But with Corbyn on offer, the calculus changes. Plus isn’t the Tory Ruth Davidson very popular there? Could be candidate specific.
I had a boss who is a British subject. He was born in London. No Scottish ancestry. He voted for the SNP when he worked in Scotland because he liked the policies of the MP, independent of independence. He always said European Leftists are socialist, American Leftists are British Torys. A very smart man,and a good boss who took care of his people while demanding the best from them. Best boss I ever had.
Caledonexit?