I’ve lost a little confidence lately in my ability to predict the political consequences of various scenarios, but I still have to believe that this is bad advice:
Only 16 percent of adults believe that House [health care] bill is a good idea, while 48 percent say it’s a bad idea, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released last week. Even Republican respondents are lukewarm, with 34 percent viewing the bill positively and 17 percent viewing it negatively.
Doug Heye, a Republican consultant, argued that the president badly needs a legislative victory and that achieving a high-profile win should override concerns about the legislation’s impact.
“Those who are strong Trump supporters have remained so despite the controversies,” Heye said. “They still see Trump as someone willing to take on their fights.”
Ultimately, people will vote on how they perceive the health care system to be working for them, and not on whether or not Trump can “take on fights.” Of course, there will be a battle to shape how people perceive things. But objective reality will still have the biggest say in that.
In the short-term, maybe Trump’s supporters will be happy to see him have a legislative victory, but they may turn on him when they see how their lives are negatively impacted. And, besides, Trump’s supporters aren’t the only group worthy of consideration here. There’s a political cost to losing soft supporters or those on the fence, and mobilizing your opponents is dangerous, too.
I think that both the president and GOP lawmakers will pay a price if they pass this bill. It might not be as big of a price as I think they should pay, but I feel more confident in saying that it won’t be a winner for them.
What happens if this bill doesn’t pass, and the Republicans focus on destroying Obamacare instead?
Mass suffering.
Well, it’s mass suffering all the way down.
But I still wonder how the politics plays out for the midterms and for 2020, if Obamacare stays in place, getting undermined (even worse) every step of the way.
Was wondering the same thing. Seems that both Senate and House bills already do quite a job of destroying Obamacare. The numbers tell one story. The human toll will be something else. We’ll be among those in harm’s way.
My guess is that the Republicans would have a better position in 2018 and 2020 – We told you Obamacare wouldn’t work, and we would have changed it by now if not for those meddling Democrats!
In particular as parts of the US is becoming Obamacare deserts without any providers to choose from. If there’s no providers, do you still have to pay the tax or fine for not having an insurance?
A very good question!
I am at this point less interested in the rather predictable reaction among Republicans than in the reaction of Democrats.
The NH Democratic State Committee held a meeting over the weekend. Not a lot of optimism in the private conversations people had from what I have heard. The predominant sense I gather from those who went was fatalism.
And shock that the GOP is as close as they are.
We keep underestimating them.
It may very well be that beating Ayotte was the difference between winning and losing on HCR. Which gives people here some measure of pride.
But good christ $70 million was spent winning it.
The Party needs a win. Any kind of win. Because endless defeat is going to kill morale, and the split people are trying very much to contain is going break the Party. I don’t get the sense of righteous indignation in my exchanges with people that existed after Iraq. I get a sense of fatigue.
And that answers your question, I think, about what Trump should want.
something they consciously count on.
Hence (in part) the relentless assault . . . not to mention cheating.
that diary you posted about the FL dem party is not a sitcom, it’s about the party split and the billionaire taking control of the state party, appointing an incompetent to prevent anything going forward. I’ll bet $ no money is raised in the next 6-8 months making it impossible to compete in 2018 with the idea that it’s better an R win than a progressive dem. – they can always fundraise off an R, with a prog dem, they’re out.
The CBO analysis of the Senate bill indicates not only that well over 15 million will lose insurance by year one, but that premiums will spike by 2020. Which, if I’m an elected official, is not the year I want premiums to spike.
If I were a Republican, God forbid, I’d want our legislation to fail, in a way that obscures blame for the failure, and continue whining about how Obamacare is such a “disaster” and that the Democrats “own” it.
For example, like Rand Paul complaining the bill doesn’t go “far enough”. Amazing coincidence he’s in what would be one of the very hardest hit state.
I think if any of the bills up so far passes, there will be a huge political price. 15 million people finding out just before the election that they won’t have health coverage anymore would really hurt the Republicans.
They will find a way to blame it on Democrats, especially Obama. Watch!
Bannon promised chaos, and boy, howdy, we have chaos! Health care on the rocks, Russian vote tampering, potential foreign conflicts, a Cabinet of disasters…a living nightmare for us. And now murmurs of a Supreme Court retirement, cementing a terrible legacy for Trump, and a higher ruling that nibbles at the stay of the travel ban. I think the Senate bill is the worst idea of many.
I like to think it will fail, I hope it does, and not just because I want that for everything Trump does. I want it to fail because it is genuinely terrible. I want a setback for Ryan and McConnell, no matter if it’s just a temporary one. The Republicans have fixed the game, they’ve gerrymandered and colluded and they keep eroding away the good things about this country. But when good people fight back, they send the message that cheaters eventually fail. Human lives hang in the balance and we cannot quit the fight.
Mandos over at Ian Welsh’s argues you’re wrong:
Link
A commenter illustrates the point:
A good post.
It is about crushing your opponent.
It’s about Obama, reversing everything he did.
In the case of Trump, he is all about personal vengeance against Obama and undoing everything he can about his eight-year legacy. The GOP Congress meanwhile is all about destroying the modern, post-New Deal federal government to re-install a variation on the Articles of Confederation with exceptions for defense and homeland security (aka the “nightwatchman state”). This is a novel experiment and, of course, a really bad one.
So Cleek’s Law all the way down.
Like a Roman Triumpf.
So much interest in polling GOP senate moderates…but why isn’t there equal interest in polling Democratic senators on whether they’ll employ maximal obstruction approach to this. Indivisible made this easy to see:
https:/www.indivisibleguide.com/resource/withholding-consent-filibuster-amendment-call-script
I called our Oregon senators and neither Wyden nor Merkley’s staff will commiit as of this afternoon.
Beware to those taking advise from Doug Heye, former aid to Eric Cantor.
If Democrats want to retain their brand as the party of health care, states and municipalities need to triage the consequences of Trumpcare passing and start building means to soften the impact. Local and state single-payer systems are possible, despite the naysaying flacks in the Democratic establishment. It takes the will to get it set up and the determination that financing will occur by clawing back the tax breaks that Trumpcare is providing the wealthy. Designing a revenue bill to do that is not technically difficult no matter how challenging it might be.
What people really hate about the current health care system is the nickel-and-diming out-of-pocket expenses that can add up to bankruptcy. Deductibles, co-pays, recissions — all sorts of financial uncertainty. It is not too hard to figure out what capitation coverage would be over a population of all health conditions. It is the public monopsony (assurance of payment in exchange for lower pricing) and the effects of early access to healthcare that dramatically bring costs down. But people will only see providers if they can afford the cost to begin with; zero out-of-pocket expense can make the difference between preventive procedures and waiting until a condition becomes critical.
At this point, someone should assume that McConnell will get his bill and work through what must be done to care for people. If this bill gets stopped, that work will not go to waste.
. . . (at least back through the Reagan years) since we could count on Objective Reality having “a bigger say” in pretty much anything in this country. What with the GOP having more or less formally rejected the very possibility of Objective Reality’s existence. “Alternative facts” ‘n all, dontchaknow?
Only in such a world would a bill supported by less than one in six people be called a “legislative win”.
But it’s the 16% that have the most money. Public good means squat to either party. $$$$ is all.
It really does not matter what they pass. It’s the job losses. If you eliminate insurance for 20+ million, you also lay off the healthcare work force that provided healthcare.
Yep…that’s a good number of nurses, CNAs, and support staff in hospitals, nursing homes, etc. who are told “you’re fired” once the proverbial shit hits the fan. What is happening now is much like the shock therapy that was imposed by the likes of the IMF imposed on struggling nations over the last few decades. The difference is that this is self-imposed. I would expect to see job losses spike, homelessness increase, and the turmoil that comes with that.
As has been pointed out, West Virginia will be hit so hard it could go into a semi-permanent economic depression.
It might be such a shock the state would turn blue in a few cycles. But that would be the result of a tragedy of epic proportions.
I find West Virginia turning blue because of Trumpcare implausible. There is not the base of support for public healthcare now that there was in the 1960s in West Virginia; unions have been decimated.
It’s the sort of shock that creates extremism, not a return to social responsibility.
There will be no fallout or pushback, at least from the self identified republican. Facts don’t matter to these people anymore. Premiums go up under GOP bill, liberuls fault. I can’t remember where I saw it, might have been here, but some reporter went around the country talking to trump supporters about this and that, and to support their argument almost all of them went right to trump tweets. there will be no political price, because information does not penetrate the right wing bubble. I hope I am wrong
link
Yes that was nice. Now can they slow down Amazon?
Either way it is a 126-page suicide note. Beginning to look like wily McConnell is going to let it die with a shoulder shrug hoping Trump’s wrath unjustly falls on Ryan; a reasonable wager.
interesting
Isn’t it a bill that appeals to GOP voters using the idea that “we both hate the same folks, and they’ll get screwed by this bill”?????
I hate how you frame this. It’s not a “health care” anything. It’s a massive tax cut for the wealthy being paid for by cutting Federal spending for health care.
Obama put it best: it’s a massive upward redistribution of wealth.
Period.
So if it passes, it’s a win for him…and it’s a “good” bill given what the real intent of it is.
We need to stop calling it a “health care bill”.
Vote pulled
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/senate-gop-delays-obamacare-repeal-vote
I don’t know what’s going to happen with the Senate bill, now that they’ve delayed the vote.
I’m lost without that great prognosticator Arthur Gilroy instructing me on what to “bet on.”
Booman, do you have figures on how many people get their health care from:
I think those numbers are relevant to peoples anger, such as:
Not grinding any axe here. Just looking for info.
Kaiser has a nice summary. CMS does too.