Yes, I predicted this.
President Trump confounded leaders from his own party on Wednesday by siding with Democrats on plans to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling, upending negotiations on a variety of crucial policy areas this fall and further damaging relationships with Republicans on Capitol Hill.
Trump made his position clear at a White House meeting with congressional leaders, agreeing with Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) by voicing support for a three-month bill to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling for the same amount of time.
In fact, I predicted it last night, in a piece called GOP Leaders Agree to Give Finger to Far Right:
On August 31st, I argued that pairing disaster relief with the debt ceiling was a no-brainer for the Republican leadership and that it could offer them a way out of the complete crack-up this September that I’ve been predicting for months.
To be honest, this was such an obvious move that I can’t take any credit for advocating it, and I’m not at all surprised to see that this is precisely the way they are going to go. It is significant, however, because it is a big, gigantic middle finger to the House Freedom Caucus and all the hard right deficit scolds. And we’ve all basically been waiting for the Republican leadership to tell these folks to go screw themselves for the entire time Trump has been president.
They forced Boehner out of power for less effrontery than this, and taking that scalp has made the seem more fearsome than they really are. Trump has been preemptively appeasing them in recent weeks, especially with his pardon of Arpaio and his attempt to spin the DACA decision as a true repeal. But this is a basically a set up to knife them repeatedly throughout this month. Trump and the Republican leadership have no choice but to blow them off on pretty much everything on the must-do list in September…
…This all makes the Democrats relevant again, and that will become more obvious after the meeting Trump takes today with Schumer and Pelosi.
There are a couple of twists to this that I didn’t predict, however. McConnell and Ryan have nicely positioned themselves to look like the victims of this plan rather than its co-authors and beneficiaries. This gives them some cover, and as I wrote in The Right Needs to Be Sidelined piece yesterday, they’ll need it.
To avoid a catastrophic default, a government shutdown, and a lapse in children’s health care, federal aviation safety and flood insurance, the Republican leadership in the Congress and the White House will have to tell [the] Heritage [Foundation] to pound sand.
And then they’ll have to figure out how to survive politically, which John Boehner and Eric Cantor can tell them will not be easy.
Also, they lumped a 90-day continuing resolution into this deal, which was smart but not something that I thought would be possible. On this last part, it does actually look like McConnell and Ryan got rolled a bit. They’re now set up to have a new headache around Christmas time, and the Democrats are liking how their leverage will look at that time. In reality, though, these moves make the congressional leadership’s job this month much more manageable. And that’s something they desperately needed.
It should be much easier now to work on reauthorizations for Defense and the FAA, CHIP and flood insurance programs, and perhaps even to do a little work on the budget.
Trump absolutely had to pivot to the Democrats but he was careful to do it in a way that disguised his actions. In just a few days, he did a jujitsu on DACA that sets him to actually sign the DREAM Act, he agreed to a continuing resolution with no money for his wall, he agreed to a clean debt ceiling hike, and he got his disaster relief without making a single concession to the far right. Ryan and McConnell get to look like the aggrieved party which helps them weather their co-authorship and complicity in these sell-outs.
It’s a job well done all around. Given the alternatives, Trump comes out quite well, but he dug himself such a deep hole that he actually had to severely anger everyone to lift himself way partially out. The right might not be as angry as they should be, but they’re still angry. The left has never been more incensed after his recent racial antics and gamesmanship on DACA. And I suspect the mushy-middle is less relieved than exhausted.
It’s better than late disaster relief, an actual end to DACA, a government shutdown and a credit default, but it’s still a terrible political position to be in.
The one problem with all of this is that the easier September becomes for them, the more likely that they take one more crack at repealing Obamacare. Apparently today McCain signaled that he’s onboard with the Graham legislation. I think it would actually be a good thing to slow walk a few of the must-pass items in order to run out the clock.
Yes, I am very concerned about exactly this point, and would like to hear Booman’s opinion.
And then it loses other R votes and doesn’t pass. If they want to waste more calendar time going nowhere, fine by me. Anyway, McCain walked his comments back:
Well, thank God for that.
So…
He’s not so dumb…at least politically…after all?
Wel knock me down with a feather!!!
Who’d a thunk it?
‘Cept for me, of course.
It wasn’t just dumb luck that Trump:
A-Whipped the entire GOP in the primaries
B-Beat HRC in the election
and
3-Has so far survived the most one-sided, longest sustained political media attack on a nationally prominent politician in American history during a time when the media is…or is at least popularly considered to be…at the most powerful point in its own history.
He has clowned you all!!!
I have been trying to tell y’all this since early 2015!!! And every time I do some members of this claque of neocentrist clowns who have descended upon this once progressive blog try to laugh me offstage.
Well…I’m still here, too.
Oppose Trump?
Most certainly!!!
But first you have to stop underestimating him.
WTFU.
AG
I have a hard-and-fast rule that I never attack the person — just the ideas — but you have forced my hand with your repeated, demonstrated inability to absorb or even coherently react to any kind of disagreement or critique, so I have to break that rule.
You, sir, are an idiot.
From you?
A mainstream Dem?
Today?
A compliment.
Thank you so much!!!
AG
What reason do you have to think I’m a “mainstream Democrat”? By your own admission, you don’t even bother to keep straight who we all are, here, or what positions we take.
You have no idea who I am or what I believe, except that I have the temerity to fight back against your constant, self-aggrandizing smearing of the rest of us (“WTFU” etc.)
Trump failed to make a profit on a casino. He has bankrupted many businesses. It has been shown that simply investing in a stock index would have left him wealthier than he appears to be based on his deals. I’ve seen nothing to indicate that Trump is this secret genius you keep telling us he is.
He has proposed no detailed legislation of his own. He constantly makes ham-handed remarks that make his own announced “agenda” harder for him to pull off. His white house has been a huge cluster-fuck.
Yes, he won the election. But effing Louis Gohmert wins elections, and I doubt you think he is some sort of brilliant political operator.
You’re a good troll though, I’ll give you that. Got me to bite.
And with this you prove that, after all this time, you still don’t understand Trump at all.
Not surprising, but still a little sad.
I measure him by his successes, jsrtheta, not by what the Government Media Complex tells me to think. He has confound his legion of critics by winning for well over two years now. A coincidence? With every passing day that he stays in office, the words “coincidence” and or “accident” become less and less applicable.
Sun Tzu in “The Art Of War” says “Know your enemy.” Trump knows his enemies…anybody and everybody who does not totally agree with him…but apparently most of his enemies do not know him. He may well be performing the best dumb act that the world has ever seen.
Or…I suppose…he’s just been very, very lucky.
If so…when does this “luck” run out?
Really.
Trump knows what he is doing on some sort of subatomic level. It is also sub-moral, as are many geniuses.
Watch.
If his opponents do not change their game(s)…and fast…we are in for a much rougher ride than we have ever imagined.
Watch.
AG
Christ, doesn’t everyone just get sick and tired of all this upside-down thinking?
What if I choose to look at it the other way around: it’s a lose-lose because Trump has to a) piss off his base (Brietbart readers etc.) and b) acquiesce to Democrats’ agenda?
I mean, the fact that the Republicans a) don’t actually want to do anything their base is clamoring for and b) understand completely that the Democrats’ legislative agenda is vastly more logical and workable than their putative goals, has been baked into the system for so long that nobody can see it any more (like a wife so used to flinching from an abusive husband –quickly reversing herself etc. — that she’s not even aware of it) is something we’re all all well aware of, but the constant kabuki-style maneuvering must be so spiritually and intellectually exhausting.
Of course I’m not saying anything that BooMan, Yastreblyansky, and many others have not only known for years but have been gamely trying to make clear to anyone who cares to listen. If the “straight press” understood all this, we’d be better off, but I don’t think it’s systemically feasible.
The Base LOVES Trump and is personally loyal to him. He’s right he could gun somebody down in the middle of Constitution Avenue and they’d still love him. So, if he chooses to work with Democrats to get something done, then the right wing will get whiplash how fast they come around to support whatever Trump wants.
And as for Breitbart, etc. they will be amazed how quickly the base turns on THEM if they cross swords with Trump.
And he doesn’t care about anything so he could logically do anything at all, and he’d be happy so long as it generates positive news coverage and he still has his adoring fans. That’s all he wants.
Of course, he’s still a bigot so he wants his wall, but there are a million ways to get that done – perhaps build some small symbolic section of the wall and pretend Mexico paid for it? It’s all psychological for him.
He has no real policy agenda at all except for getting more graft for his businesses and attention.
The 90 day CR doesn’t do anything to change the end of the fiscal year does it?
They’re sort of admitting that they aren’t going to do anything budget related until December. Doesn’t that mean they just tore up their 2016 reconciliation ticket?
I would see how Trump doesn’t get what just happened, but Ryan and McConnell just got forced to eat their vegetables and they know it.
Why does this qualify as a pivot?
Trump knows and cares absolutely nothing about DACA. He is not impressed with the outrage, any more than he’s been impressed with all the other outrage he has caused. He will not sign the Dream act because he will not voluntarily continue something Obama put in place.
As far as the “clean” debt ceiling … faugh. 90 days … that hasn’t happened yet. I’ll be glad when it does but I’m not holding my breath.
Defense and the FAA, Ok, I’ll give you that. CHIP? I’ll believe it when I see it. Flood insurance? Maybe, depends on who gets to him first.
This is just another in a series of bullshit “decisions” made by someone too stupid to be political and too venal to care.
I’m not seeing how you predicted today’s main development. Yesterday, you wrote on a Politio piece saying that Trump and mostly unnamed GOP leaders were going to vote clean debt ceiling linked to disaster relief. Today’s news is the Kabuki that makes it seem like the Dems are driving this and lets Trump share the blame, because he has a lot of immunity from the base, but lets the GOP Congressional leadership off the hook. But I don’t see that you predicted the Kabuki. The Politico article should be kept in mind for debunking the Kabuki.
However, given that the Dems are at least “playing” the lead role, I still say it was irresponsible of them not to push for a longer extension. Give it two years and maybe the Repubs won’t be in charge anymore.
I’m not following too well either, and if Booman wanted to explain, it sure would be enlightening. But I -think- it goes something like this:
(a) freedom causes wants to burn down the world, e.g. not raise ceiling
(b) Yertle&ZEGS wanna raise it, defuse the bomb
(c) so they can get on with other forms of rapine
(d) so Y&Z proposed 18mos
(e) Chuck&Nancy countered with 3mos, plus their own priorities (CR for funding govt, Dream act)
(f) dampnut went with Chuck&Nancy
This means that the Dems get another bite at that apple in Dec. In short, the Dems are now doing to Dampnut what the Rs used to try to do to Obama — play brinkmanship with the debt ceiling. It’s not as irresponsible, and the Dems can’t be called on it, b/c the Rs could ANYTIME THEY WANTED raise it themselves, if they could just get their pants on before sundown. So the Dems can fairly argue that it’s not them holding anything hostage.
Uh …. at least, I -think- that that’s what’s happening. But oboy, I’m not any good at this, and sure would like somebody who is, to explain it.
It could accomplish a number of things.
But are not these wins for Trump? Well, sort of. He’ll get to point to legislation, but:
3. These “wins” are not what the Trump voters or the rest of the GOP want. They drive wedges between the GOP and Trump and the GOP and the voters. Trump only survives on GOP sufferance. If he loses that, impeachment suddenly becomes a lot more of a threat. And if the GOP voters get grumpy and stay home for the mid-terms, that would do nicely too.
Of course, nothing in politics is certain. Ryan might come up with a dastardly counter. Trump might eat a burrito and tweet out new directions in the morning (though right now they appear to be taking the “we’ve always been at war with Eastasia” route). Guam might get nuked. But right now the much maligned Dem leadership has got Donnie-boy to sign off on everything they thought they could get. Not too shabby.
Maybe this helps?
https:/www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/6/1696515-Why-the-Democrats-three-month-budget-deal-with-Tr
ump-is-a-huge-win
Not really buying that. Everyone knows the Republicans have the majority and the White House, plus the Repubs have spent years making threats to not lift the ceiling or to shut down the government their brand. I don’t see the Dems getting blamed if the debt ceiling doesn’t go up – either now or in December.
If they want to torture the Repubs over a shutdown go ahead. The debt ceiling is too dangerous, and its effects too long-term.
So, it’s:
I think this piece is spot on.
My concern is that Republican leadership will get their act together and get more than they should in the complexity of a Christmas omnibus but life is full of risks.
Kicking the debt ceiling out 6 months would not have bought the Dems much and setup a DACA trade even more explicitly.
More importantly to me, the Dems need to be about more than helping immigrants. Solving DACA is important but we need more signature issues that are economic and meaningful to voters.
Preventing harm is necessary but not sufficient to get in power again.
My concern is that they’ve released the valve on the September pressure cooker and will feel free to take another run at Obamacare. If we dodge that bullet we’re in good shape.
They still have too much to do. After September they either have to wait 6 months with no budget to try the whole thing again, or they have to combine Tax Reform and ACA repeal in the same budget like Booman talked about the other day.
Right now, time has been bought so long as the Filibuster remains for general legislation.
That said, Sen. Franken has setup another procedural showdown over the Blue Slip rule. I don’t think that one is going to hold. If/when Dems get power again though it’s court stocking time if the Repubs blow that rule up too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM10y4XgTG0