I am beginning to wonder about something. When I take a look at the following graphic it tells me that a lot of right-leaning voters are beginning to feel like the country might run more smoothly with a Democratic Congress. I’m not sure how else I can look at those numbers.
Yet, I’m also supposed to believe the following:
Jeff Flake has become a cautionary tale. Lawmakers who are not retiring don’t want to draw the president’s ire and the enmity of his core supporters. Most Republicans in Congress, even those facing tough reelection campaigns in places where Trump is not popular, are under intense pressure from their base to wholeheartedly support the president.
I understand not wanting to be singled out by the president, but perhaps there’s something wrong with this picture. Either the base doesn’t want congressional Republicans to wholeheartedly support the president or the base is shrinking so quickly before our eyes that it probably shouldn’t be the first concern of GOP lawmakers who are seeking reelection. How else to explain that the GOP-held districts are now split on whether the GOP should retain their congressional majorities?
Another explanation is that the congressional preference question is too volatile to be meaningful.
We do continue to see polls that indicate both that the base is still with the president and that the president is vastly more popular than Congress, but I’m beginning to suspect that believing in those numbers might be a strategic mistake. Just for one example, Trump is already killing the GOP with swing voters, and the base is already unhappy with Congress, so wouldn’t standing up to Trump be more likely to win a candidate credit than going along with him? I don’t think enthusiasm for Trump is transferable to congressional candidates.
In any case, a lot of this is in the context of whether the GOP Congress should put a bill on Trump’s desk prohibiting him from firing Mueller. They think this would depress turnout. I think the public, even in Republican districts, would approve of the move.
I’m seeing a lot of polling that is just baffling to me – for example, I concluded that the latest NBC poll showing 43 percent approval for Trump was a land-line only poll conducted exclusively among Fox News viewers. I do think that we’re looking at a somewhat diminishing base and hoping that the GOP is making a bad bet in going all in for Trump.
OR….
The numbers show Republican base voters still firmly believe (thanks to the Right Wing Media Bubble) Trump has and will deliver on his campaign trail MAGA NO Homework/Free Ice Cream for Whites Only campaign bullshit.
ACA repeal fiasco? Congress failed them. Shut Down nonsense? Congress failed them. Travel Ban, Military Transgender, DACA? Activist Judges and Congress! the Tax Bill….Special Interests and Congress!!!
Also, like any poll about congress, the numbers show dislike of every member of congress except their own representatives.
Well I certainly don’t like mine
I am ignoring polls completely at this point. Once burned, twice shy. I am running this race all the way to the finish line this time. I know here in heavily red area, I really cannot tell that Trump support has waned much among the base. We are laser focused on supporting a pretty good slate of local Democratic candidates this go round. But I am pretty nervous about the situation with the primary for Governor. Richard Cordray is in danger of pulling an Ed Fitzgerald and bringing the whole house crashing down on all the statewide candidates. His waffling and non-answers on guns in the recent candidate debate, which took place in the shadow of the Parkland shooting, has sent significant ripples of concern among the grassroots and progressives all over the state. And it seems the State Party, as of now, is tight lipped about it. If he doesn’t get his shit together and he fucks this up, I can’t even begin to imagine how it is going to blow up in Columbus. We could end with a disaster at the top of the ticket, which could ripple all the way through even Sherrod Brown’s reelection campaign. In an election cycle that has been proclaimed as the “year of woman” in Democratic politics around the country, we have lost all the female candidates at the top of the ticket in the Governor’s primary race, and are left with four white guys, which includes Dennis Kucinich, and Bill O’Neill, the Ohio Supreme Court Judge who has bragged about “sleeping with over 50 very attractive women”.
I am really kind of nervous and pissed off about this whole situation. The Ohio Democratic Party is liable to end up with a real shit-show on their hands.
Thanks for this inside take. Disappointing that Cordray is turning out to not be a good candidate and worrisome that his weakness can hurt other Dem candidates’ races. Now, I’m worried with you and I’m no where near Ohio.
I have given up trusting polling. The results of polls haven’t lined up with the results in elections enough for me to stop caring what they say. There is only one poll that matters: the one on election day.
The number in R districts went from +14 in Jan to +0 in March…that seems like just noise (i.e. random fluctuations) to me.
The phrase that comes to mind is “a small but enthusiastic audience” which can look like millions on Fox and to Republican only pollsters but won’t mean shit when the polls close. Doesn’t mean I’m resting easy, can’t stop truckin’!
Until the poll of likely Republican primary voters turning on Trump occurs, it’s all noise to elected Republicans.
The Republicans who are retiring don’t think the Republican primary win is worth anything. The one’s that aren’t have a plan to win the general – either because their district is red enough or they are keeping their anti-Trump powder dry until after their primary.
For Republicans the primary filter is driven by the tribalist Trumpenvolk and that won’t ever change in their political lifetimes