I’ve learned my lesson, and hopefully you have to, about putting too much stock in polls. From the 2016 presidential election, to many subsequent special elections, to recent primary results, we’ve seen some upsets that simply were not indicated in the polling data. Having said that, we don’t have anything better to rely on when trying to gauge how the American public is viewing the spectacle of the Trump presidency. If nothing else, the tracking polls that look at presidential approval and congressional ballot preference can help us notice trends.
A new Economist/YouGov poll finds 53% of voters disapprove of President Trump’s job performance while just 38% approve.
What is more, the share of voters who say they “strongly disapprove” of Trump has increased by five points, from 37% to 42%, over the past few weeks.
Key finding: “The decline in the president’s numbers stems largely from a change among college-educated whites. These voters will have a disproportionate weight in the upcoming midterm elections to the House of Representatives, both because they show up at polling booths and because so many of them live in marginal congressional districts. In the same poll, 49% of college-educated whites support Democratic candidates for the House (the generic ballot), while 40% support the Republicans. These are awful numbers for Republicans: the president is contagious.”
I think it’s remarkable that this Economist/YouGov poll found strong disapproval of the president from 42 percent of the people they surveyed. Personally, I think that number is absurdly low. In my opinion, it’s a national disgrace that it is that low. But it is still a staggeringly high number. It shows that the people who oppose or are unhappy with Trump are passionate about it. They’re not saying that the president has disappointed them or could be doing better; they’re saying that they’re worried, angry or appalled. Relatively few people register a milder form of dissent.
The trend here is also bad. Things seem to be falling apart and there’s evidence that it’s transferring from the president to the Republicans in Congress. According to Nate Silver, a nine-point congressional ballot deficit should net the House Democrats forty-one seats and give them a better than ninety-nine percent chance of winning back control. But this Economist/YouGov poll is showing a nine-point deficit just with college educated whites. The Republicans need to win that group or at least break even.
If Trump’s unpopularity is contagious then it calls into question the Republicans’ strategy of supporting him in order to rally his supporters to the polls. On the other hand, if that is the only group left that still might come out to vote in any numbers for the GOP in November, alienating them could lead to a much larger collapse. This puts Republican candidates in a Catch-22 where they need to prove their independence and willingness to hold the president accountable but that’s precisely what will prove to their base that they’re not worth supporting.
The conclusion should be obvious. If you’re going to suffer a political death, at least die with some dignity and a shred of integrity still intact. It’s time to walk away from the president.
The half-dozen or so Republican congresscritters still possessed of dignity and integrity are already quitting. Nothing decent can be expected of/from those staying in office.
Even those who are quitting and walking away don’t have a shred of decency and dignity. For all of their “big words and deeds,” they all, to a man/woman, still vote with Trump’s policies and laws Every. Single. Time.
Party over country uber alles.
NONE of them have any decency and dignity and in that group, I include Sainted John of the Maverick McCain.
Nobody has any dignity when the `Sieg Heil’ salutes start coming out. Not even the protestors on the other side of the street.
.
Anyone with a “shred of dignity” wouldn’t be a Republican in the first place. Other than as an enhanced chance for grifting, what is the point?
The only answer seems to be so that you can become a committee chairman and then retire to become a highly paid lobbyist for the chemical industry or big Pharma.
If they walk away from Trump, it’s not just that the Trump “White Power!” fanboys will shun them. They will have broken the rules. What happened to the Republicans who repudiated Nixon? Versus the ones like Dick Cheney who kept the faith? Being a loyal soldier for the crook in chief will get them a chance to be appointed anew in the next GOP administration. They always recycle.
Being an incompetent moron is no bar to sliding right back into power in the next right-wing administration – (see John Bolton for examples). Turning against your criminal President is probably the kiss of death for most of them.
. . . far away?) there used to be some GOPers retaining shreds of dignity. Those days are gone. E.g., Collins and Murkowski will most likely vote at the end of the ongoing illegitimate proceedings to confirm the illegitimate nominee of the illegitimate preznit.
Nothing* would make me happier than to end up having to eat those words.
*ok, barring some infinitesimally improbable event such as Charlize Theron appearing at my door saying “baby, I’m so horny”. Which reminds me (aside): recently watched “The Last Face”, in which she and Javier Bardem co-star along with a terrific supporting cast, directed by Sean Penn. Highest recommendation, but with caveat: it’s gut-wrenchingly disturbing and to some extent despair-inducing (as experienced by the characters as well), in a way similar to “The Deer Hunter”‘s impact (on me at least).
I grew up in Pittsburgh during the Vietnam War era and so The Deer Hunter was especially affecting tto me. I knew people like the characters in the movie.
. . . exhausted, emotionally drained. Can’t really think of another film that affected me in that way to that degree, though this one’s in that ballpark.
Never saw that movie, but that’s how I felt after seeing “Short Eyes”.
. . . check it out.
You may wish you hadn’t.
. . . to watch it!
In fact, I did “check it out” on imdb a short while ago, with the conclusion that I’ll probably pass on that one.
But thx for the . . . um . . . “recommendation”???
(That said, I don’t regret seeing The Deer Hunter, in fact I would recommend it as long as somebody is forewarned about its likely impact. Same as The Last Face.)
The conclusion should be obvious. If you’re going to suffer a political death, at least die with some dignity and a shred of integrity still intact. It’s time to walk away from the president.
They will never do it, Cowards all…
They’re planning on ramming through the new tax bill after ramming through Kavenaugh.
The lame duck session is going to be an extinction-level horror show.
They’re going to do their level best to dynamite the country before they leave, making the D’s operate in disaster recovery mode for two years as the remaining R’s howl and throw sand and bombs in the gears.
“…at least die with some dignity and a shred of integrity still intact”
Name ONE republican in congress with any integrity OR dignity … JUST ONE!!!!
I double dog dare ya!
I don’t disagree with the sentiments expressed in this post and the comments. However….
Why would any GOP politician/voter/lobbyist/elite funder walk away? Seriously? Why would they?
They are, one & all, getting EXACTLY everything (or nearly) that they want and voted for. Frankly, most of them are in ecstacy. Not snark.
I don’t have ONE R acquaintance/friend/colleague/relative who’s unhappy with Trump. Yes: anecdotal small sample, but no one I know belongs to the lowest of Trump’s Nazi base. I’m talking about well educated, purportedly “Nice” people (some are even minorities) who have good jobs and are reasonably sophisticated. They all LOVE Trump. LOVE him.
They’re not going anywhere, and they’ll reliably pull the lever for Trump in 2020 unless something even more radical happens, and frankly, at this point, I truly cannot imagine what event it would be to turn GOP voters away from their Sainted Savior in the White House, who is being treated so UNFAIRLY by our vast leftwing media conspiracy.
So no, why would the GOP turn away from him now? I just don’t see it. And btw the Koch’s LOVE them some Trump BIG TIME. HE’s doing everything they ever wanted and MORE.
Ergo, I have no expectations of the GOP “turning away” from Trump. This egregious “editorial” in the NYT was just trolling to get some of the Never Trumpers back on board. And of course, they’d be ever so happy with some kind of palace coup, as long as they perceived it inured to their benefit.
Party over Country. The end.
Do you think they will be able to hold the House? Cause if they lose it or expect they will it could be time to re-evaluate what comes next. That could mean Pence who will continue to provide the goodies and keep the Evangelicals aligned. And it will help them regain control in 2020.
If they continue on this path they could lock themselves out. Especially if Mueller is all the time adding to his file and making Trump out to be far too friendly to Putin. So there is a path to more palace intrigue here. The Op Ed could be just a beginnning and there could be more than one person behind it. I think the investing class is also a little upset with what is going on re tariffs and market volatility. And those people may have outsize influence.
2016 Presidential Election
State DJT-HRC Jill Stein
PA 44,312 49,947
WI 22,177 31,006
MI 10,704 51,463
Total 77,193 132,416
Unless the same scenario repeats in 2020, I am not sure the electoral college will definitely go for DJT.
It looks like you should have written DJT-HRC because otherwise it shows that HRC won those three states, which obviously didn’t happen.
Arrgh, I meant the other way around. Shame there i no edit function on this site.
. . . column is Clinton-Stein combined total (as heading seems to suggest?) . . . they got ~5X as many votes as Trump in MI??? If so, how’d MI end up in his electoral college column? Seems that would take the Mother of All Gerrymandering (and then some) to pull off.
And all the numbers look WAY low for statewide totals in those states.
Sorry for not being more clear.
Here it is again:
PA
Trump total 2,970,770
Clinton total 2,926,458
Trump margin over Clinton 44,312
Jill Stein total 49,947
WI
Trump total 1,404,000
Clinton total 1,381,823
Trump margin over Clinton 22,177
Jill Stein total 31,006
MI
Trump total 2,279,543
Clinton total 2,268,839
Trump margin over Clinton 10,704
Jill Stein total 51,463
When I did that analysis after the 2016 results were final, I was curious to see whether Jill Stein took away significant enough votes in these three critical states. It seems that in all three, her total votes was greater than the margin by which Trump won over Clinton.
With regards to the comment in this thread that I responded to, I was thinking that hopefully there will be no spoilers like Jill Stein in the 2020 presidential election that will take away votes from the Democratic nominee. So even if the Trump faithful vote for him, there is a good chance that these electoral college votes might not go to him again.
Sorry but the GOP never admits they made a mistake. These men just go for the do over. The only way to slow their roll is to prove to America they are nothing but criminals. Taking Russian money to elect the donald is the act of criminals.
It would seem to me that their calculus is that, yes, there is a pretty damn good chance that they will go down in flames in November. But we have all seen the movie before on the mode they switch into when they are in the minority. And I think that is really the mode in which they most thrive. And they would rather go into that position, not having walked away from the President, and still have the support of their base largely intact. From that vantage point, they will have the greatest leverage possible to push back against a Democratic majority in the House. And they will still have the right wing torch and pitchfork crowd in their camp, to storm the gates and to entertain the mainstream media with all sorts of tin-foil hat Patriot enthusiasm and in-your-face moments with Democrats, that they media can run nightly. Because, well, that’s what the media does when the Democrats have any authority. That, coupled with what will surely be a withering campaign of resistance and insanity from the right-wing media wurlitzer, will insure that a complete stalemate is achieved, while the Trump administration continues to push our relentless march of the country back to the 1860’s.
It seems counter-intuitive, but their best chance of surviving to fight another day might well be following this President into the threshing blades. Because if they lose the base, they are done, possibly for a very long time.
Words are cheap. I only care how they vote.
McCain made a big deal about not killing Obamacare but voted for a budget that will decrease funding for health care, environmental protection and all the other programs that benefit the common good.
That was the only time McCain ever voted against Trump in a vote of any significance. Also, he did it in the most self-aggrandizing way possible.
I just came back from another blog – not one of the rightwing places, either – where a lot of self-professed conservatives are basically voicing the opinion that even IF the OpEd is essentially correct in how it’s depicting what’s happening in the WH: SO?? Several people said they “didn’t care” if that’s what’s happening. It’s a “nothingburger” (a quote).
They see NOTHING wrong even IF the Trump WH is run this way. Hey: Party over the country 110% of the time.
Most of the rest of the commenters were dissing Democrats, as if somehow this is all their fault… well, aka, LIEbrul media NYT, I guess.
So the insanity on the right never sleeps, never stops, never gives up and certainly NEVER EVER admits they’re wrong.
Unbelievable. They’re A-OK if there’s been a palace coup and some unelected “officials” are now running our country. Hey: IOKIYAR.
This is why he has a 90% approval rating from Republicans.
The ends are justified by the means, regardless of how extreme the means might be.
Yep.
Someone just responded to me some weasle words along the lines of: well, I don’t really like it, but after all, this is what happened with Reagan (yeah: they admitted that at last), so it’s “nothing new.”
Like: OMG. So there’s precedent been set, apparently, and so: on with the show.
These people! Sadly it’s not unbelievable, and it’s really not even the new normal. It’s just the same old, same old.
Corruption, graft, crime, grifting, lying, deceit, oppression, crookedness? IOKIYAR. The end.
Is there some reason you won’t reveal the blog you were visiting?
Category error. The party is the country. They split the country into Democrats and Americans decades ago.
Booman writes:
“It’s Time for the GOP to Walk Away from Trump.”
It won’t happen until his continued presence in the White House causes them to fear for their positions, and only a decisive Dem win at the polls would do that.
This November?
Let us pray.
AG