Maybe I’m just looking for trouble, but I’m getting a sick feeling about these midterms. Even the ostensibly good news, that turnout looks like it will be through the roof, has me worried. And that’s for a fairly simple reason. The Dems are, more often than not, breaking the historic norm and doing better with likely voters than registered ones, which means that higher turnout won’t necessarily favor them in the ways we would expect it to.
When one party has a solid intensity advantage, it’s not a plus for a lot of low-intensity voters to show up. Still, there are plenty of good signs for the Democrats if you choose to focus on them. The intensity level of blacks, Latinos and young voters is trending up rather sharply, and early voting looks robust, which is almost certainly creating initial leads for the Dems. As long as they still have some voters left on Election Day, these built-in leads could form the basis for some big upsets.
But, to demonstrate my angst again, seeing presidential level early voting gives me less confidence than ever in the polling companies’ turnout models. I’ve never had less faith in polling than I have this cycle, and it’s not just a hangover from 2016. I can see that the models are wrong already, so I have no expectation that the polls are anywhere close to accurate.
It looks like Trump’s base is going to come out in force, and that’s not normal for.a president’s party in a midterm. It’s going to blunt the Democrats advantages and take some seats off the table that looked very winnable.
This isn’t an election to be a spectator. Contact your local party and get involved so you don’t feel like a worthless piece of crap on election night.
Well, you have finally put into words what I have been feeling and worrying about for a while now, but didn’t want to consciously acknowledge. I think we will make some gains, but I think that the expectations are so high among many Dems, that it borders on irrational exuberance. And since the expecatations are so high, if it turns out as I am sensing, it will be the Trump people who come out of this with a substantial emotional advantage on November 7, if our expectations fall short of the high bar that has been set.
Around here, there is a huge motivation among many Dems. And we have had people walking in our door every day who have never been involved in their life, and they want to do something. That is energizing for all of us, for sure. But early voting numbers here, while much higher than normal, are still being matched by the other side. And on election day, I expect they will swamp the polls in unprecedented numbers for a midterm election. Trump came to our town last week, and thousands upon thousands made the trek to pay homage to his message. He really did energize them to come out, and there has been a real burst of attention and enthusiasm in this heavily red county.
I try not to get too swept up in the emotional aspects of all this, so that I don’t blind myself with my own biases. I try to stick to the data and my natural intuitive abilities to read the tea leaves locally. And I have a real fear that we are setting ourselves up with some unreasonable expectations.
With all that being said, I will be leaving in about 30 minutes to start my third three hour canvass stint this weekend. I will be doing this every weekend until the election. It is all I can do. I know there are thousands of others doing the same thing. I just hope that it is enough to get us over the hump. We have to leave it all on the field. We really have no other choice.
Do your part, whatever that might be. Everything is important. Leave nothing to chance.
It makes life better that I know I can count you, Mike, to bust your ass and do your part.
Thank you. It’s a dash of cold water, but I share your worry. Voting for Trump in the first place is beyond my understanding, and anyone who is still on the Trump train is too far gone to act rationally in any way, and very easy for him to fire up with his bigoted noise. I’m worried they’ll flock to the polls. Orwell would have a field day.
Of course we worry. The stakes are high.
Of course we worry. The stakes are high.
I have a terrible feeling about the election, and this reminds me (again) that on Monday, i need to get my passport renewed.
I’ve been thinking, so what happens if the Rep hold, will that mean that Dems will be less energized in ’20 and more will stay at home?
And then I keep having this conspiracy niggle where I think that the Russians won’t be satisfied with their influence campaign and will actually hack voting equipment. Or that the Iranians have much to lose and will try it, or that the machines that are owned by a Saudi company will fail or that the Chinese or N Korean hackers will fix the race?
Mainsailset! I’m disappointed in you! Do you really worry more about a James Bond fantasy of Russian hackers than what ordinary voters making between $30K and $80K annually think about the Democratic Party?
The (R)’s Achilles heel is that they tied themselves to the Bible-thumping “save the babies” “Jesus rode a Dinosaur” wingnuts. That’s what’s killing Chicago suburban congressmen (along with demographic change).
Notice Trump never pushed this nonsense (or only the margins). Trump knows, deep in his mercenary heart, what people really care about, money. MAGA! means Make Americans Rich! Lots of jobs. Lots of tax cuts. That’s what he pushes and don’t argue with me that it’s just Madison Avenue Smoke and Mirrors. When is the last time you heard a Democratic politician talking about jobs and making people wealthy? Instead we get talk of social justice. Social Justice is important, but most people are being squeezed to the wall by Centrist policies. They could care less about Social justice. They are looking at their bank balance and credit card bills and worrying.
Trotting out Joe Biden or Chuck Schumer in 2020 ain’t going to work.
haha, my cynical side has more than one obsession. I’m obsessed with getting the vote out locally and in my state on a daily basis but I find myself also looking over my shoulder to see if our lack of cybersecurity will translate into lost votes. I think I was born worried…
Um, today? And yesterday? And the day before that? And . . .
Though it does seem Dem messaging overall is most consistently focused on healthcare, as it should be. Not being bankrupted by even a relatively modest health issue being, obviously, a critical element of “making people wealthy”.
Except “wealthy” is still the wrong focus. It’s actually about keeping people from teetering on the brink of destitution. The Democratic Party isn’t, and shouldn’t be, about falsely promising to somehow make everybody “wealthy” — a pipedream if there ever was one. That’s the Banana Republicans’ snake oil (and so probably where you actually belong).
The Dem message should be as it long has been (paraphrasing somebody along the way): if you work hard and play by the rules, you should be able to make it in this country. E.g., you shouldn’t have to just survive paycheck-to-paycheck, one health emergency away from destitution. You should be able to make a decent living, support and raise a family, etc. But promising to make everybody “wealthy”? No, that’s ridiculous. That’s their lie.
If you look at the response rates, skepticism about polls is very reasonable. Response rates to telephone polls are less than 2% now, meaning the results are hopelessly skewed although there is no good way to know how. The general assumption is that the few still answering phones are mostly older with landlines, which would indicate it’s skewed for us, but with these kinds of rates it’s hard to know.
Older with landlines = skewed to the Right. At least here in “flyover country”. It may be different on the West Coast (isn’t it always?)
Yeah, not seeing how “older, with landlines” skews for “us”. Seems quite the opposite, in fact.
What I meant was “the real result is better for us than the polls”. Older and landline has traditionally meant “more conservative” but it’s getting so bad now even my mother and her friends aren’t answering calls from numbers they don’t recognize. The tiny remnant still answering phone polls probably still skews the same way it always has but it might be skewed by other factors at this point.
Cell phones are useless in much of my mountainous rural county.
This constant state of doom, gloom and despair is the thing that most exasperates me about Democrats. People don’t vote if they think their vote won’t make a difference. Convince them that nothing will ever get better and you’re convincing them to stay home.
So snap out of it! There’s a reason Republicans spend so much time trying to purge voters from the rolls. Their agenda is very unpopular.
High turnout is great news for Democrats, and this looks like a banner year.
Comments are often more effective if you read to the end of the piece you’re responding to.
I read your whole post, Booman. If you feel that “don’t feel like a worthless piece of crap on election night” changes my opinion, you’re wrong.
Your post was followed by 10 dismal comments thanking you for your “dash of cold water”, “sharing your worry”, worrying about expectations being too high … etc. etc.
High turnout is good news for Democrats. Take your victories when you find them, and save your worries for real problems.
High turnout is generally good news because Democrats have a much bigger percentage of low-propensity voters. But midterms are generally won by the minority party precisely because the party in power is happier and more complacent.
Presidential level turnout is not anticipated in any models, and in most polls the Republicans do better among the entire pool of respondents than they do with the subgroup that is defined as “likely” voters.
If the unlikely voters turn out, that is not automatically a good thing in this kind of atmosphere. In fact, it’s likely a bad thing for the Senate in particular and many reddish House districts as well.
It likely means that we’ll see polarized results, which will mean Democrats crushing the GOP in the suburbs but not getting the wipeout results across the board they were hoping for. And it probably means outright losses in the Senate.
I think you’re being too cute about trying prognosticate who is being turned out vs. who is being polled and what the pollsters think the electorate makekup will be.
Not every pollster, but most of them, who are looking at likely voter are taking into account if someone WAS a low energy voter but is now engaged (for instance, if they feel Trump is really threatened) when deciding what makes up a likely vs simply registered voter. To then come back after the fact and declare that Republican un-likely voters will jump back in after this weighting at rates HIGHER than Democrats is too many series of hypothetical to be useful.
I feel like you should go ahead and be fearful, not trust the polls entirely, but not feel so overwhelmingly sorrowful that the country feels like this is an important election and is responding. The fact of the matter remains that in most of these states there are more Democrats than Republicans, but most especially that Democrats (with lower turnout) have more ground to game in terms of turning out marginal voters than Republicans.
The rest is unknowable, and no one is taking this for granted. I’ve never seen any election where Democrats are working harder than this, including Obama in ’08.
. . . from:
I certainly did not get any such impression from booman’s top-post. That you did suggests to me you’re reading into it stuff that isn’t there and/or ignoring the context of the rest of what is there.
I wish democrats would have done more to frame the issue for the average voter out there, who doesn’t read blogs, follow the “news” or give little more than a passing thought to the reality-style reporting (for that reason) on the impact of Trumpism.
How many realize McConnell means what he says about Social Security and Medicare, or even know that he said it? How many understand the impact to the right to vote by the naked schemes the GOP is running nationally to prevent people from voting? Do people realize that, if they didn’t like the last tax cut, and most didn’t, that the GOP is primed to do another that will do much more harm and zero good if they maintain control? Why can’t democrats simply say: if you didn’t like the last tax cut, another one is coming if you don’t vote out the republicans?
Minority voters get the cultural impact of what the Trump/GOP is doing, manifested in all the white women 911 calls for just living while black, and other such stuff. They get that the Trump/GOP’s racism has emboldened these people. They also see the voter suppression and threat to the right to vote as a challenge, and I have no doubt they will come out in force. The Parkland students have worked to get voters to understand how the GOP protects the NRA sponsoring the flooding of guns in our society. The solution is simple: vote democratic. Why aren’t the democrats saying that? And by “saying that” I mean to the extent that republicans are saying loud and long all their lies to the contrary to get their voters riled up. It seems obvious, and yet its not being done. Why?
Leaving it at “this is the most important election of a lifetime” without the reasons why in ways people get is like crying wolf; how many times have people heard that, only to find the next day THEIR world didn’t end?
Some are criticizing the democrats for not having a message that says what they stand for. And to some extent that is true. But if the strategy is “we’re not the GOP” then at least tell people that.
To wit:
“The GOP is going to cut your social security and medicare…”, play McConnell’s quote. “Vote Democratic!”
“The GOP spent the last ten years doing their damnedest to undercut the ACA and take your healthcare away? Democrats are going to work to keep your health care and expand access to it. Vote democratic!”
“The last tax cut didn’t do anything for you? republicans got another in the wings if they maintain control…”, play McConnell again. “Vote Democratic!”
“The GOP calls you a ‘mob’ for wanting to keep your healthcare, medicare and social security, that they want to destroy and use the funds for another tax cut that won’t help you?” Show long lines of orderly voters, waiting to vote “Show them what a mob is, and Vote Democratic!”
As I talk to people, this is what and HOW I tell them. Not trying to impress them, or get into the weeds of policy, etc, that the average person not only doesn’t have the time to try to understand and could really give a rat’s ass about. Too often our first goal is to appear “smart” when talking to voters or about policy. THIS is why republicans beat us on message consistently.
As Malcolm X said, “make it plain!”
You write:
I feel your pain, csm. I really do. But there is a fundamental flaw in your reasoning. Precisely which “the dems” are you referencing? “The dems” who are doing grassroots organizing in the hopes of better tomorrows, or the DNC “dems” who are essentially professional, Washington DC, swamp-dwelling politicians, dedicated only to the continued existence of the every-once-in-a-while power switch of the two centrist parties while the controllers of those parties remain in positions of wealth and power whether in office or not in office.
You want the DNC dems…the ones who control the serious money, the corporate-allied-and-thus-owned dems…to say “We’re not the GOP!!!”
But the truth of the matter is that they are the GOP, insofar as both parties are dedicated to holding the status quo steady in Washington.
Two sides of the same counterfeit coin.
Yeah, I know.
The Trump reign is an anomaly…or at least it is considered so by the DNC/RNC, PermaGov types. The mainstream Republican Party was as shocked as were the Dems when Trump trashed every last lame candidate that they threw at him in the primaries, and when he won the presidency the mainstream Republicans were forced to at least pretend that they were with him in order to remain in any position of potential centrist power whatsoever. They were banking on the PermaGov police and intelligence forces to either defeat or control him until one or the other centrist-allied parties could climb back into power.
So far, this tactic hasn’t worked very well for either party.
And the bipartisan hustles continue on many levels.
So it goes.
Meanwhile, if you are waiting for the DNC, big money ads to say quite loudly and distinctly “We are not the GOP!!!” don’t hold your breath. The neocentrist dinosaurs are still in control of the serious DNC monies…witness the always bought-and-sold centrist media’s continued hyping of Biden (and even HRC!!!)…and fighting the outliers every step of the way.
They are “the Republicans,” in a manner of speaking, just like two rival mob gangs are still “the Mob,” and will unite to drive off another gang that wants a piece of the pie if not the whole thing.
That’s how it works.
Sorry.
That’s how it works, and that is how it has worked at least since the Humphrey nomination.
They don’t kill dangerous outliers anymore…they just swamp them with bought-and-controlled media.
And…more and more potential voters are getting wise to this particular hustle. There are only so many times that you can run a three card monte game before even the dumbest rubes begin to figure out that playing that game is a losing proposition.
Barring the usual “unforeseen circumstances,” this election will neither prove nor change much of anything.
And the bipartisan anti-Trump movement will continue just as it has been continuing.
Drip, drip, drip…
Watch.
AG
“This isn’t an election to be a spectator. Contact your local party and get involved so you don’t feel like a worthless piece of crap on election night.”
Or, you could come to this progressive website and organize explicitly against turnout for Democratic Party candidates by lying despicably and obfuscating about important subjects.
That would make you a worthless piece of crap even if you think oh so highly of yourself.
This explanation does tidily explain the inexcusable failure of DC Dems to trumpet even the most obvious winning messages, such as “hey Mitch McConnell wants to take away your Social Security and Medicare, here’s a video of him saying just that 3 weeks before the election and using his own I’ll-advised tax cut as the justification”… but you don’t hear it at all. Mostly it’s Nancy telling us how impeachment is off the table and Chuck ushering in new reactionary judges for absolutely nothing in return. Oh, and don’t forget Obama and the Grand Compromise to cut the social safety net and Tim Geitner rescuing the banks while screwing all middle class Obama voters, which directly led to Trump and an understandable mistrust of Dems among the working class.
If you were cynical (or, you know, not in denial) you might just say that the DC Dems are pretty happy with the status quo. Their actions (and unforgivable inaction) certainly strongly support this conclusion.
. . . cut” [sic].)
As long, that is, as you filter all info through your confirmation biases.
The messages you’re asking for are in the Democratic ads. You just don’t see them because you tune out the ads (like everybody) and the media doesn’t report on them. You only hear about the occasional Red State Senator running an ad with a gun in it.
The ads I’m hearing at the Congressional level is “he voted with Trump”!. Illinois may be an anomaly and that works here, but if they are doing that in Red states, then they are boosting the (R) vote.
Some attempts to invoke Trump in down ballot races which are very hot here. But it seems better, at the local level, to push “he voted with Rauner!”, Gov Rauner(R) almost losing his primary to an obscure downstate Senator. (R)’s for their part just shout “he/she is a Madigan puppet!” Speaker Madigan being widely accused of running a corrupt political machine and the conventional wisdom is probably correct. As for me, I don’t care if JB Pritzker is Madigan’s puppet. At least then we will have a unified government that might do something, anything, to stop the financial hemorrhage and unpaid bills, furloughs, driver’s license facility closings, nursing homes closings because the state is not paying Medicaid bills and in other ways turning Illinois into Zimbabwe (or Kansas).
Thanks. I was looking for something to turn this day into another day of dread. I needed to feel that sinking feeling on Sunday, just like every other day.
Jesus, man.
I’ll do my best to avoid relitigating 2016 as that is inevitably fucking tedious. Whatever methods pollsters use (landline, mobile, internet) give us a sample of a population of voters. Inevitably there is sampling error, no matter the method used. So, we get numbers that tell us what voters appear to up to, with some margin of error. My vague recollection of 2016 was that the results generally fell somewhere in that margin of error. My guess is that based on the data available, things overall look good for the Democratic Party to flip the US House, the GOP hold the Senate, and for the Democratic Party to reclaim a number of governorships and state legislatures. Those events will probably occur – but remember that just because an event is probable does not mean it is guaranteed. Just because an event is improbable does not mean it is impossible. We have some say in how events turn out – maybe less than we’d like but we still have some agency. If you can knock on doors or donate or phone bank or whatever, please do. Show up in early voting or election day. Pester those you know to do so as well. Tune out those who exist only to dampen enthusiasm.
Personally, I am cautiously optimistic about our prospects in November (at least w/House and down ballot races – not so much Senate). Note that I emphasize the word cautiously. Those of us who have been trained to think probabilistically in our various lines of work tend to be a bit on the cautious side.
Do you ever see a post like this on a conservative site? Nope. They don’t help anyone.
I confess, I am not understanding your reasoning. High turnout is good for the Dems — except now, for some reason. You allude to low intensity voters, and context would suggest you think those are gonna go GOP. Bot you don’t explain why.
Could you maybe unpack this stuff a bit more?
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Pretty sound reasoning.
In re: polling: Any race where the (D) isn’t leading by at least 3, I’d count it as likely (R).
Any polls using “enthusiasm” are going to be skewed.
Enthusiasm and retweets don’t mean anything if there aren’t votes cast, and counted.
Stop the Chicken Littling already. If early signs look bad obviously that’s bad. But now even when they look good it still must be bad. All of these posts predicting doom really do no good.
And a post telling you everything is going great does what kind of good?
You heard it here first.
I share your sick feeling about the election.
But my reason is different.
Trump, and all of his political appointees, including his political appointments to the Supreme Court, are literally the worst people in the world. The main group of the Trump crime syndicate are absolutely disgusting people. It’s impossible to overstate their venality, from top to bottom. They are horrible people.
Yet;
A. 40% of the country support them, all their policies, and moreover, cheer ecstatically at their cruelty. Lock thousands of babies in prisons, forever? Cheer at the top of your voice (Ya, that’s still happening, people. And will continue after the election, no matter who wins)
B. Every single member of this syndicate are so obviously horrible, yet every single one has risen to the top of American society, whether corporate or political. They got promoted, and became rich. Society accepted them. No decent person was there, throughout their careers, to stop them.
Every single thing we do in life is a character test of one type or another. Every single person has a `standard’ that they use to measure behavior in others. If that standard is met, interactions, even friendships result. Call it `values’ if you prefer. If it’s not met, interactions are only what is necessary. Right now 40% of Americans share the values of the Trump syndicate. 40% of Americans have no problem at all with a person being tortured to death, and then dismembered. But here is the real kicker…I bet another 20% are not bothered by those standards. They are the type that continues the conversation after a racist joke, and do not walk away. They don’t share those values, but they are willing to associate with it.
America has a massive problem, and no election can fix it. America has root rot. https://homeguides.sfgate.com/soil-contaminated-oak-root-fungus-74158.html
And it is spreading.
.
I am not sure of the percentages but, yes, we have root rot. I personally saw this and was close enough to the top to see the kind of people who get there and their attitudes towards others. And, yes again, it is damn near impossible to stop them. It can be done but when folks livelihood hangs in the balance it is easier to cheer than to jeer. I can only hope that people vote, and it does not follow them into the voting booth – or at least enough of them. At least there is a chance to fight back there.
Well done.
I share your concerns. It’s almost as if we mustn’t be encouraged by encouraging signs …
Nevertheless, some encouraging signs are out there.
I also have the sick feeling. I think we’re in a similar dynamic as 2016, with the mainstream media favoring Democrats, polling that is too good to be true, underestimation of red voters, overestimation of blue voters and the Democrats still not offering a truly compelling economic change message for working-class voters to rally around.
I just saw that Pelosi plans to use her majority to pass a law that will universally guarantee LGBTQ rights. I’m 110% for this, but it isn’t the kind of legislation that inspires folks who are worrying over bills and debts and the future.
The Democrats are again being cautious and pusillanimous, and tone-deaf, and it will be to our collective detriment.
It occurs to me that I would remiss if I don’t mention this thing that I heard: I’m told that folks who are actually out there campaigning and organizing are a lot happier and optimistic than those of us who are — for various reasons — stuck in front of our computers. I’m currently hanging my hat on this anecdote.