How do things look where you are?
About The Author
BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
How do things look where you are?
If I had to guess I’d guess that our indicted congressman Duncan Hunter will be re-elected by the denizens of East San Diego county, because to them a felon is better than a democrat. The race is tightening though, so we’ll just have to wait a few more days to see.
Another nearby district has dem. Mike Levin vs Rep. Diane Harkey battling for Darrel Issas seat, and Levin is ahead. That hasn’t stopped him (or supportng pacs, I can’t tell) from blanketing the airwaves with anti-harkey ads, some of them pretty dirty (she’s corrupt! should be in jail! on the take! etc etc).
Heavy police presence. Funeral at nearby Rodef Shalom.
My daughter’s daycare was sent home early yesterday due to the Secret Service clearing out the place for Trump.
My son’s school was locked down this morning thanks to an anonymous tip warning of a potential shooter.
Considering emigration.
Writing from Portland, Oregon. Our governor’s race is tight, although the incumbent Democrat, Kate Brown, is slightly ahead in all polls. (No Republican has won a gubernatorial election here since 1982.) Knute Buehler, the GOP candidate, is claiming to be pro-choice among other things and is trying to peel off Democrats who feel Brown has been lackluster. His TV ads conspicuously avoid identifying him as a Republican. Brown’s ads just attack “Republican Knute Buehler”. There are controversial ballot measures with tax implications, such as measures pertaining to so-called affordable housing. Here in the metropolis, we have two African-American women in a runoff for an open city council seat.
I am in a very blue California district – Pasadena/Altadena. Our former rep was Adam Schiff. With the redistricting it now is Judy Chu.
Usually they don’t need to campaign because their Republican opponents get very few votes: 32.6% in 2016, 40.6% in 2014.
But recently the local newspaper reported that Adam Schiff and Brad Sherman held an open town hall organized by League of Women Voters.
It was disrupted by some very right wing audience members, where they stopped the speakers from speaking. And LWV had to shut down the meeting.
My sense is that the divide is so deep, and if you are a Republican in a heavily majority Democratic district, the frustrations are so high – that even if we have a Democratic House, or Senate, or White House – how will we come together as a country?
The current version of the Republican party has let this genie get out of the bag. And there is NO going back.
Our daughter (medical school resident in UCSF) was saying that she feels increasingly depressed about the daily news. She is now much more engaged in the political process – she asked for my matrix of votes on the California propositions. She is voting on Tuesday, and will be encouraging fellow residents to vote.
The other issue that worries me is that Maggie Haberman is reporting that Trump feels that a Democratically controlled House will provide him with a big target for 2020 elections. And she said it is not clear if the Democrats have a strategy to deal with that. Perhaps one will emerge after they gain control.
So for me it is a mixed bag of emotions today!
Politically or IRL?
In politics I fully expect the GOP to win Tennessee. It’s a state full of unengaged voters and the people here are “among least-educated in U.S”.
So that’s Tennessee.
IRL, my new housemate has turned out to be a bonafide psychopath who in 72 hours has basically driven me out of the house I’ve rented for nearly a year, with a month left on the lease. Luckily, my guitar player opened his home for me. I expect to be out within another week or two.
So that’s IRL.
Holy crap. Sorry to hear that. Take care of yourself. Hope it all works out with a minimum of additional psychopath.
this is a small town. A lot of my friends are women. My girl witnessed all of this.
I’ll be fine. Her name is Mud.
Well, here in my backyard, the guy I have been working so hard these past few months to get elected seems to be stepping on his dick a lot lately. And today, he canned his campaign manager.
I have been personally telling his campaign manager for weeks now that they/she need to quit trying to be so clever and cute about what should have been a relatively minor issue. But they have been trying to run out the clock to avoid dealing with it, and now it’s blowing up on election eve.
Jesus, I am so fucking tired of having Dem candidates stumble like this. After the Ed Fitzgerald disaster in the 2014 Governor’s race, I would have hoped some lessons would have been learned.
But I will be out Saturday and Sunday knocking on doors for him, and trying to do whatever the hell I can do to try and eke some good out of my efforts. But I have to tell you, I am running on fumes these days. But now is not the time to falter, no matter how badly I just want to grab the wife and dog and run into the mountains and never come back.
Did not know that about OH.
But it reminds me that FL often has had really bad Democratic candidates – some who actually were Republicans in disguise.
Sometimes it feels that Dems are electing/choosing the worst option!
Also shafted by the Russian social media cyberwarfare! And I also wonder whether the GRU actually also have kompromat on the RNC – and why hackers such as Anonymous are not able to expose that?
My state is so poorly polled that there is no good way of knowing what will happen. Democratic Party is still rebuilding its infrastructure, so a blue wave is not going to happen this time around. A good election night would mean no more GOP supermajorities in the state legislature, which would prevent a likely re-elected incumbent governor from doing quite as much damage as he might do otherwise. Early voting has looked really good, but hard to know who is actually coming to the polls. I think we’ll flip a some local elections from red to blue. It won’t be overwhelming, but if that much transpires, we’ll have something to work with going forward.
I’ve no idea. Just out knocking on doors. Would rather spend my time doing things that are useful rather than reading about the horse race.
Went out of town on work so I’ve been out of it for a few days. Hope to jump back in tonight.
Trump is coming to town on Monday to kill off Donnelly. They say he will get 20000 plus. All my one time pals are giddy.
TN is too close to call for Senate race. The rest of the GOP cream-white homunculi will probably win out.
Actually got canvassers and text msgs from TN Dems, though, so that’s an encouraging sign. Never gotten that before.
Trumpster was in my Congressional district recently trying to help the incumbent R, since the race is basically a toss-up. Teasing me, my Republican neighbors asked me if I was going to the Trump rally. I told them “hell no” since somebody might try to shoot me. I have a lot of Dem signs in my yard and locals know my political preferences. If “my guys” win, I will attach hot pink balloons to the signs early Wed. morning.
Forgot to mention I’m in IL Congressional District 12.
How do things look where I am? Inna Bonx?
Cloudy, but solid blue.
Ditto Manhatan and most of Brooklyn.
In Queens and the rest of Long Island? Staten Island? Suburban Westchester, Connecticut and New Jersey?
Just cloudy.
A wash, I fear.
Possibly a wash-out, wth a distinct red tinge.
We’ll see, soon enough.
I was in the Stroudsburg, PA area Monday, working at the wonderful, oldest continually running jazz club in the U.S. (The Deer Head Inn) We had a great crowd and the band played really difficult music very well. But then…the Trumpsters don’t much hang out listening to great jazz, do they?
Cloudy, with a chance of more bad weather. Reigny, even.
I hope I’m wrong.
AG
P.S. The fine Brazilian jazz pianist Eliane Elias reports this story from before Donald Trump entered the RatPub primary race. You remember, back when he was just another rich, objectionable asshole? She was working in a nightclub in some big hotel, going up to the gig in the elevator. Trump and a couple of flunkies got on the elvator, and one of the flunkies said something about maybe going up the club because he had been told there was a really good band playing up there. Trump scowled and said “Jazz? I hate that shit!!!”
There ’tis…in a nutshell.
Not campaigning for a progressive champion, Arthur?
huh.
We’ve been flogged with your attacks on the Democratic Party, its leaders, and members of the Frog Pond for years and years and years.
You offer little to no opposition here to the Trump/GOP agenda, including your total disinterest in offering opposition to Kavanaugh’s nomination or the abuse of infants and small children by Trump’s DHS/ICE/HHS.
One might be forgiven for developing the opinion that you are an insincere critic of this community.
. . . what you meant?
Cautiously hopeful Tester wins.
More worried, but still somewhat hopeful Kathleen Williams kicks Greg Giantasshole’s ass to the curb (though that will take the very limited polling being off in some way).
Locally, pretty confident Dems will have a good night (but, hey, I live in Missoula).
Cautiously hopeful the good statewide ballot measures pass and the horrible, voter-suppression one that the Banana-Republican-majority legislature put on the ballot will fail.
We’ll see how much of that proves wishful thinking.
Ohio is a state, not of the Deep South, but of the Shallow South. The Ohio Democratic Party famously imploded during the Reagan years and nothing has been heard from it for a generation. I (long story) live in one of Ohio’s reddest counties. How do things look where I am? Very, very strange. Most election years, there are ten or twenty times as many R yard signs as D. This year, the Ds outnumber the Rs by nearly two to one; and they all look as though their placement was the product of a highly organized effort. Signs don’t vote, but this is beyond unusual.
Not sure exactly where you are located in Ohio, but in my SW Ohio area I can confirm that sign placement and density was definitely part of an organized effort. It took a lot of persuasion and pitching to campaign and Party leaders, but after seeing the psychological effect of wall to wall Trump signs in 2016, there was a contingent of people who felt that this same effect could work for us. And from my conversations with people when I have been canvassing, it has definitely emboldened people who might not normally sport the sign of a Democratic candidate in their yard. And I know from first hand accounts that Republicans have noticed.
Here in Colorado, Jared Polis seems a lock for governor, I’m guessing Brauchler (R) for AG, and hoping that Jason Crow is my new congressman.
But the end of Walker Stapleton and his ads will spell relief.
I’ve resided in Georgia for almost three years now. I’m in Doug Collins country (GA-9, R+31, most GOP leaning district in the state). He has an opponent this year, which is good (Josh McCall, if you have excess cash).
Most attention has focused on our gubernatorial race, mostly because Kemp, the currently serving Sec. of State, has been battling in court over various vote suppression measures. Stacey Abrams, the former House Minority Leader, is running a tough campaign against him. Our whole statewide slate is good, though. For instance, John Barrow is a former Congressional representative who is seeking the S.O.S. position.
For Congressional seats, GA-6 and GA-7 are considered most likely to flip. Both are suburban Atlanta districts: Lucy McBath is challenging Karen Handel and Carolyn Bordeaux is challenging Rob Woodall.
In the Georgia House, there are 180 seats. In 2016, the Democrats only ran 82 candidates(!). (They won 62 of those races.) This year, there are 119 candidates running, which should increase turnout and strengthen the party for future cycles. (My current representative is running unopposed.)
All 56 Georgia Senate seats are up for reelection this year. In 2016, there were 27 candidates. In 2018, there are 38 candidates. (My current state senator has a Democratic opponent.)
Overall, cautiously optimistic: Kemp ran a hard-right primary campaign, and he may have trouble retaining suburban voters. A lot depends on how the largest counties in Georgia behave. Gwinnett and Cobb, the 2nd and 3rd most populous counties in Georgia, went for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in 2016. If turnout remains high in those areas, Abrams may be able to win statewide.
I live in WA a vote by mail state. I’m an election observer, so we get to see how well or poorly ballots show up. This year the State is footing the bill for return mail…making a huge difference. High turnout always favors the Dems and this year the turnout is strikingly high.
Ultra Red West Michigan 06 District (DeVos,VanAndel,Amway) is on the path to most money spent, ever, between Fred Upton(R) and the latest Democrat to try to blast him out of office after 16 terms – Matt Longjohn.
These foregone conclusion races are still able to siphon off money from higher offices defending against funding by outside groups; in this case in favor of Longjohn by 3 to 1.
I’m in a blue area of California – Zoe Lofgen’s district – and I’d say most people I know seem oblivious. There’s a general disapproval of Trump but few people seem emotionally engaged. It’s a little weird to me. I see more social media advertising about our ugly local sheriff’s race than anything else.
I wish I had any idea. The Upper Peninsula tends to be a news desert and the county Democratic Party doesn’t even maintain a website.
This is good news Abigail Spanberger is the dem trying to unseat Dave Brat
https://bluevirginia.us/2018/10/video-project-veritas-spy-kicked-out-of-abigail-spanberger-for-congr
ess-campaign-hq
I live in Austin, so generally friendly territory.
Tuesday I was sent WAY off to the northernmost corner of the county to do literature drops. It was semi-rural and mostly LMC to poor. In my specific area I saw exactly two signs, both for Beto. I spoke to one older fellow he asked if I was paid, and when I said no, asked me why I was doing this. I gave my short spiel about having voted for the GOP from Reagan until Bush II, when torture and voter suppression pushed me away. He was a Vietnam vet who had to vote GOP to stop “them” from taking over the country. I should have engaged him better (Who are they, exactly, sir?), but after 2 hours of walking up and down hills I was kinda blown and just wanted to be done.
Made phone calls yesterday, aimed at D voters who were seen as low tendency. Many had already voted, and almost all the rest were planning on it, including at least two who claimed they were on their way at that moment. I even got a volunteer who was out canvassing, which was pretty funny.
We may manage to pass a significant health care reform ballot initiative in California, Proposition 8. I’m proud of the campaign’s ability to weather over $111 million in No on 8 campaign spending, the largest war chest ever spent by a State initiative campaign in the history of the United States.
The outpatient dialysis industry is the very worst actor in the health care system these days.
Here is a link to the solid treatment done on the subject by John Oliver’s show.
Here in PA-16 seeing a lot of signs for Dems (Wolf, Casey and DiNicola) and also for Rep candidates, perhaps a few more for Dems. This is compared to 2016 when there were tons of Trump signs and almost none for Clinton. Also, while the Trump endorsed candidates won the primaries, they lost most of the western PA counties.