I spent quite a bit of time on Sunday night looking at the results of the European Parliament elections and reading a wide array of sources that were doing early analysis. I wanted to understand what happened, but also what the implications are for not only Europe but the United States.

There are several themes that are being promoted, but some of them mask or distort the voters’ actual intentions. In the United Kingdom, for example, the big story is that Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party won the most seats.  The secondary story is that the two main parties were decimated, particularly the Tories. This leads to the perception that supporters of Brexit had a big night and the  Conservative Party will have to choose a committed Brexiteer to replace Theresa May as prime minister.  Yet, supporters of the Remain position actually got the majority of the votes. If this had truly been a second referendum on leaving the European Union, the notion would have been rejected.

As for the fascist parties in general, the narrative is that they improved their numbers in parliament, but not by as much as people feared. Marine Le Pen’s party in France won a plurality, for example, but also did less well than in the last E.U. elections.  In Germany, the fascists improved their results, but didn’t do as well as they had done in the domestic elections.  In Spain, the Socialists actually had a great night. In Austria, the fascists took a beating due to recent scandals.  It was only in Italy where fascism seemed to have a triumph.

The biggest overall story is that the center-left and and center-right coalitions will lack a majority for the first time in the E.U.’s history. Yet, much of the support on the left moved to more progressive parties. Throughout northern Europe, the Green Party did exceptionally well, and actually came in second place in Germany.  It seems that the elections will move ideological center of the parliament to the left, although this is not emphasized in much of the reporting.

The final major narrative is that turnout was exceptionally high.

The implications for America are hard to gauge. It does support the suspicion that there will higher than normal voter participation in 2020. It shows that the immigration issue and nationalist sentiment are still powerful forces capable of winning pluralities if not majorities.  It also suggests that the uptick in fascist attitudes is likely to inspire a fear-based backlash.  Climate also proved to be a potent mobilizing force. Discontent with traditional parties could translate into more third party voting in America, but given the results of the 2016 election, I find this doubtful.  On the other hand, Democratic primary voters may opt for a non-traditional candidate, even if there are few signs that the left is in a risk-taking mood at the moment.  It remains to be seen if Trump can retain his outsider appeal or will be punished for being the leader of a traditional party.

On the whole, I don’t know that we’re better able to predict what will happen in America in 2020 than we were before we saw the results from Europe. I see both danger signs and reasons for optimism.