Apparently, the Trump campaign is firing its pollsters after internal numbers from March leaked to the press that showed the president being slaughtered by Joe Biden. I’m not at all certain that the pollsters are responsible for the leak, but they definitely were the ones who brought Trump bad news. So, “off with their heads.”
The campaign’s spin on these numbers has been kind of hilarious but they did make at least two decent points. First, the numbers are not fresh; they’re three months old. Second, the surveys were taken prior to the issuance of the Mueller Report. Nonetheless, they did show Trump in big trouble, losing to Biden even in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina, and ahead in Texas by only two points.
Letting those numbers stand unanswered is not a great option for the president because if congressional Republicans take them as gospel they will start to panic and seek some distance from the White House. Trump tried simply denying that the polls exist, but that tactic quickly proved inoperable. So, trust them, things have improved since March.
Separately, Fox News is out with new polling of the Democratic contest, and it also has good news for Joe Biden.
Biden tops the list of Democratic contenders with 32 percent support among primary voters. Bernie Sanders trails at 13 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 9 percent, and Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris both at 8 percent. Next is Beto O’Rourke at 4 percent, Cory Booker at 3 percent, and Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang each garner 2 percent. Julian Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Tim Ryan receive 1 percent a piece.
CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS
Since March, Sanders is down 10 points, while Buttigieg (+7), Warren (+5), and Biden (+1) have gained ground.
They also tested head-to-head matchups with Trump:
Biden and Sanders are ahead beyond the margin of error, and 2016 taught us that the margin of error is pretty damn important with these polls. Still, all the top Democrats are leading Trump and the fact that this is a Fox News poll makes it harder to spin as fake news.
What seems most consistent in the polling is Trump’s inability to break out of the low-forties against anyone, be they white, black, male, female, straight, gay, coastal or midwestern. All that seems to change is the size of the undecided vote. Against Bernie Sanders, only 11 percent have no opinion, while against Buttigieg that number swells to 19 percent. This indicates the Democrats’ ideology is less important than their name recognition, although in Warren’s case it could indicate higher negatives, perhaps as fallout from the whole “Pocahontas” thing.
People will argue what they want to argue from these numbers. Some will say that anyone can beat Trump, so why not go with your heart. Others will say that only two candidates have what might be considered a safe lead, and why take needless risks. In truth, there is too much time and too much campaigning ahead to draw any firm conclusions, but it’s safe to say that Trump is in bad shape. Not much has moved Republican support away from the president, but polls showing that Trump is going to lose to all comers and isn’t even a lock to win Texas have the potential to shake some things loose.
He’s firing his pollsters and the replacements probably won’t be stupid enough to give him real numbers. He’s not paying them for real numbers. He wants to be told what he wants to hear. Then he can leak the “good” internal numbers and change the narrative.
The fact that Biden and Sanders are not distinguishing themselves in these polling leads is what needs to be reported. Trump’s topline numbers are abysmal. He is not popular. He doesn’t defy political gravity. Everyone is stuck in a weird psychosis that he has special powers or that “nothing sticks” and I’m sick of it. It’s why I’m backing Elizabeth Warren. Her coming out for impeachment with clear story telling of the facts resonated. Notice also her rise in the Democratic primary, which I attribute to her impeachment rallying cry. People want a Trump slayer. They want our electeds to stand up to the motherfucker. Stop pussyfooting around and begin an impeachment inquiry.
The second thing I take from this is “electability” is real and also isn’t. The only numbers that matter are Trump’s and he’s at 40-45 no matter what (and I haven’t seen him at 45 in a long time). Sanders/Biden are at 90%+ name recognition so their numbers can solidify. “Moderate” appeal in Biden is worth something but not much. 2016 and 2018 solidified this for me. People don’t care if you’re moderate or liberal but “do I personally like this candidate and do they seem honest to fight for me even if I don’t share all their positions.” This was why Jason Kander did so well in 2016. Find candidates like that.
Last, to emphasize the point again, only Trump’s “job approval” matters. That’s it. Every action Democrats take should revolve around the answer to “does this hurt his approval rating?” He’s already maxing out with Republicans and yet is stuck at 40-43%. If he’s at 40% on Election Day, the Senate is ours.
There really is no discernible ideological pattern in these numbers. I guess you can say that a candidate who starts out with low name recognition and espouses moderate positions is not going to break out. But Buttigieg isn’t exactly breathing liberal fire. So, even that pattern only takes us so far.
Warren is on the uptick among Democrats but her numbers against Trump relative to Sanders are concerning. You can’t say it’s because she’s too far left, so it must be higher negatives.
I’m with you on Warren. Became a monthly small donor last month and hope she goes all the way. But I sporadically send a little cash to Buttigieg because he’s (IMHO) a fantastic speaker, clearly framing the important issues and engaging a whole bunch of young voters who need to stay involved all the way through. And I’ve sent a little $ to Harris to help keep her viable. I think any combo of these three would be formidable (though scary for the pearl clutchers) in the General election.
It’ll be interesting to see what polling results congressional Republicans are getting/will get as the year goes along on as to whether their support for Trump helps or hurts their re-election chances. In Breslin’s Watergate book, “How the Good Guys Finally Won”, one of the pivotal scenes comes when Majority Leader Tip O’Neill wanders the House floor chatting up members (of both parties) about a new poll he has that shows 1) Democrats who don’t support impeachment are in trouble, and 2) Republicans who stick with Nixon are in trouble.
Warren as President; Biden as Secretary of Defense; Buttigieg as Secretary of State; Booker as Secretary of the Treasury; Harris as Attorney General; a fellow can dream, can’t he?
well, I agree with the first phrase there. Biden into retirement, and Treasury is the only place I wouldn’t put Booker. Treasury needs someone who is 100% with Warren on regulating Wall Street and that’s not Cory Booker.
No Biden. Replace Booker with someone who knows money like Stephanie Kelton or Warren Mosler. Not sure about mayor Pete yet. Beto for Sod
It boggles the mind that 19% of people who even know what an election is could still be undecided about Trump under any matchup scenario.