There is plenty of fresh polling information to look at this fine Sunday morning. There’s a new Washington Post/ABC News poll of the national numbers for the Democratic candidates, plus a state-by-state survey of the early voting states by CBS News/YouGov polls. For what it’s worth, there’s also a Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of likely Massachusetts voters. In addition to that, former South Carolina governor and fan of the Appalachian Trail, Mark Sanford, has announced that he will challenge Donald Trump for the Republican nomination.
The national numbers show no change from what we’ve come to expect, with Biden at 29 percent, Sanders 19 percent, and Warren 18 percent. But, of course, the candidates are not running a national campaign yet. They’re investing in the early states, and CBS News/YouGov finds a three-way split there.
Iowa (February 3, 2020): Biden 29%, Sanders 26%, Warren 17%, Buttigieg 7%, Harris 6%
New Hampshire (February 11, 2020): Warren 26%, Biden 25%, Sanders 24%, Buttigieg 8%, Harris 7%
Nevada (February 22, 2020): Sanders 29%, Biden 27%, Warren 18%, Harris 6%, Buttigieg 4%
South Carolina (February 29, 2020): Biden 43%, Sanders 18%, Warren 14%, Harris 7%, Buttigieg 4%
All three of the members of the top tier can find something of comfort in those numbers. Biden is leading the all-important first contest, albeit not by much. A win in Iowa might be enough to secure him New Hampshire. He also looks poised to win a big haul of delegates out of the largest state, South Carolina, so if these numbers were to hold up he’d come away with a lead in delegates and he has the potential for a quick knockout punch of his competitors.
Bernie Sanders is far from dead. He continues to poll in second place nationally and is in striking range to sweep the first three contests. He might even be the only candidate other than Biden to win delegates out of South Carolina, which could put him in a solid position as either the frontrunner or as the clear alternative to Biden.
Elizabeth Warren will be happy if she wins New Hampshire. If Biden captures Iowa and she captures New Hampshire, she might find herself as the main alternative to Biden, and Sanders may never recover. If she and Sanders split Iowa and New Hampshire, it could fatally weaken Biden and maybe even cause his commanding lead in South Carolina to collapse.
Needless to say, the race looks a lot closer than the national numbers indicate and it is definitely too close to call. Warren probably has the most momentum, and the Suffolk numbers show her drawing close to even with Biden in her home state of Massachusetts, which is one of the biggest states voting on March 3rd.
If you’re interested in anyone in a lower tier, you’ll want to watch the debate on Thursday which will be held in Houston, Texas. Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg continue to form a distant third tier but it’s easy to see why they are struggling. Only 2 percent of Democrats or Democratic-leaning registered voters in the Washington Post/ABC News poll say that Harris is the most electable of the candidates. Only 1 percent say that about Buttigieg. Simply put, the Dems see them as too risky as nominees, and that’s unlikely to change because it’s based more on identity than policy or some response to their campaign strategies.
For now, it’s a three-way race and any outcome is possible. I was very confident that the race would shape up this way, with Biden and Sanders forming two sides of the triangle. I’m gratified that Warren has seemingly won the remaining slot. The debate should have some fireworks, as changing these dynamics is not going to be easy and it won’t happen just because some lower tier candidate has a solid debate performance on the merits. These long shot candidates need people to either fall in love with them or to see them as a better safe bet than Biden should he falter. Either way, they need to get a lot of sustained attention, and being controversial is the only likely way to accomplish that.
Ugh, the fatal taste of rank and file Dems for the stale 90s donuts. Absolution for colossal bad judgment in foreign policy (cough*Iraq*cough) and rationalizing ever-changing policies towards the Rise of the Plutocrats according to the decadal weather vane. No problem! And remember, there’s a lot of “really good Repubs out there”…..
The interesting question will be whether the rhetoric directed at Uncle Joe by someone in the field ever turns nasty in attempting to bring him down. That did not happen with Sanders/Clinton as far as I saw. But since Joe seems delighted to keep “mis-remembering” one thing after another (not to say lie about them), bobbles one off-the-cuff remark after another (zero discipline after 40 years in the game, not to mention tone deaf) and is obviously ready for bed at 9pm, the temptation is going to be great.
Also, too, it would’ve been nice to have a candidate immune from being subjected to the same sort of daily “fact-checking” that has become Trumper’s Trademark, but I guess “risk averse” Dem poll responders have no problem with that (obvious) development…Keep repeating: everyone is better than Der Trumper!
People just want life to resume to normal. Honestly, you can’t blame them. Whether Biden (or anyone else) can actually accomplish that is another story.
Yep, that’s what it looks like with five months to go before the first votes are cast.
I’ll toss this scenario out not because I think it *will* happen, but because I think it’s a real possibility: Biden implodes (he’s done it twice before), Harris exceeds expectations in Iowa (top 2 or 3?), Warren or Sanders wins NH (damaging the loser), and Harris wins SC (and surges in NV as the regional candidate).
Harris seems to have done a decent job of positioning herself as an acceptable 2nd choice across most factions of the Democratic party, which gives her a shot.
Disagree with Harris positioning. That may have been true at one point but Warren has taken that lane, imo. I guess you could say black voters will move to her away from Biden, but she’s too deep in the hole. If that happened Warren would gain the most (imo) because Biden’s supporters would splinter. Warren is also consistently highest among “considering”, and she has high favorables.
Your potential scenario is what I thought was a good chance of happening before this all started but Harris and Gillibrand have just not performed like I expected.
Note this from the CBS/YouGov poll:
“Warren is also under consideration by more Dems (60%) than Biden is (50%).”
“29% who were backing Harris in July, whom we re-interviewed for this study, have switched to Warren. Biden picked up 15% of former Harris backers.”
I actually think Harris is the X-factor for another reason: if she drops out, Warren is the principal beneficiary.
I’m still waiting for Booker to catch fire.
Or for Sanders, whom I love, to pull out and enthusiastically endorse Warren, following some back-room politicking where she promises X and Y in exchange. Oh pleasepleaseplease
Sanders would never do that nor should he when he’s arguably ahead of Warren in these recent polls (which also are different than current averages I have, and change his trajectory in the favorable direction). He (or she) might after NH depending on what happens. If he (or she) insists on going into Super Tuesday it’s possible he (or she) hands the nom to Joe Biden.
I’d prefer he do that, it’d make her instant frontrunner. But let’s see how Iowa pans out.
I find it extremely troubling that Sanders continues to linger. Spoke to friends last night and it was clear that they were supporting Sanders despite his complete fuck-up of 2016 and beyond. They are not Berners but had no clue the damage he continues to bring. I’ll merrily be cheering Biden or Warren to shred the Bern.
Could you be specific about the damage he’s done? Many of the issues he first promoted are now supported by many of the Democratic candidates. He also brings in younger voters and some working class whites. Not my first choice but many of the criticisms sent his way seem to come from angry Hillary supporters. A dividend Democratic Party could bring us a Trump win.
the Bernie-is-the-root-of-all-evil people will never forgive him for getting in the way of the coronation.