Applying all appropriate caveats about methodology and sample size, it’s worth looking at Nate Cohn’s effort to identify the tiny sliver of truly persuadable voters who undecided between Donald Trump and the Democratic Party’s eventual presidential candidate in 2020. It’s not just interesting to see who these people are but also what they like from a policy perspective.

One thing is not surprising:

A disproportionate number of persuadable voters tend to be low-turnout voters as well: 28 percent didn’t vote in both 2016 and 2018, compared with 17 percent of those who say there’s no chance they’ll vote for the other side.

Low information voters don’t vote as often because politics are not a central part of their lives. Many of these folks couldn’t tell you who Mike Pence is or what Nancy Pelosi does for a living. They may be totally unaware that there are impeachment proceedings underway in the House of Representatives.

The first challenge is to get them to vote at all, and there’s a decent chance that you should leave them alone because they might well vote for your opponent. Yet, they probably will determine who wins and loses the 2020 election.

When you delve into the numbers, keep in mind that Cohn presents the data in a bit of a confusing way. He really has two definitions of persuadable voters. One represents 15 percent of the electorate and the other represents only 9 percent. The former leans Republican and the latter leans Democratic. The difference is that the larger 15 percent pool doesn’t exclude people who chose Trump over all the Democratic alternatives or vice-versa, while the smaller 9 percent pool strips these partisan leaners out.

At different points in the article, Cohn discusses the issue preferences of both groups, and those preferences often diverge.

On the whole, though, these voters are not ripe for progressive messaging. The larger group is particularly unpromising:

As a group they are 57 percent male and 72 percent white, and 35 percent have college degrees. Most, 69 percent, say they usually vote for a mix of both Democratic and Republican candidates. Among those who voted in 2016, 48 percent say they voted for Mr. Trump, 33 percent for Hillary Clinton, and 19 percent for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein or no one. Those who voted in the midterm election voted for the Republican congressional candidate by one point…

…They prefer [a Democrat], by 82 percent to 11 percent, who promises to find common ground over one who promises to fight for a progressive agenda; and they prefer a moderate over a liberal, 75 percent to 19 percent.

Over all, 40 percent describe themselves as conservative, compared with 16 percent who say they’re liberal. Forty percent are moderate.

Mr. Trump leads Ms. Warren, 49 percent to 27 percent, among this broadly defined group of persuadable voters, slightly improving on his margin over Mrs. Clinton. He holds a narrow 43-37 edge over Mr. Biden, a slight improvement for the president over the Republican performance in the midterm election but far from matching his tallies in 2016.

The smaller 9 percent group is slightly better:

These truly persuadable voters supported Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 by eight points and have less developed views on the presidential race. They support Mr. Biden over the president, 38 percent to 27 percent, but prefer the president to Ms. Warren, 37 to 20. Mr. Sanders is in between, with the president leading him, 34 percent to 32 percent. This group voted for Mr. Trump by a smaller margin in 2016, 37 percent to 30 percent, with the rest casting ballots for minor candidates.

One specific issues, it kind of depends on which group you want to focus on. College-educated whites are not looking for a Warren/Sanders platform:

The white college-educated persuadable voters, in either the broad or narrow definition, have something in common: They may not love the president, but they are not sold on progressives.

They oppose single-payer health care, 60 percent to 37 percent, and oppose free college, 55 to 41.

Here’s a fuller picture:

Persuadable men and women generally hold similar views on the issues, including on the president. But they are deeply split over an assault weapons ban, with persuadable women supporting an assault weapons ban by a 26-point margin and persuadable men opposed by 18 points — including 42 percent of undecided men who say they are strongly opposed.

The undecided white working-class voters often seem as if they would be quite receptive to Democrats based on their views on the issues. They support single-payer health care, for instance.

But they approve of the president’s performance by a comfortable 63-32 margin, and they are as about as conservative as Republicans on the cultural issues that divide today’s politics. By a margin of 84 percent to 9 percent, they say political correctness has gone too far. They say academics and journalists look down on people like them, and agree that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against minorities.

That doesn’t really provide a roadmap for the Democratic nominee. Promoting an assault weapons ban looks like a wash, while Medicare-for-All only seems to appeal to people who strongly approve of the president’s performance and seem to hold some pretty racist views.

It’s not entirely clear why Biden polls so much better than the others among the persuadable, nor why Sanders outperforms Warren. The general conservative lean of the group might bring some sexist attitudes, but Warren lags even among the more Democratic-leaning smaller sample.

The strongest warning sign is obviously here:  “They prefer [a Democrat], by 82 percent to 11 percent, who promises to find common ground over one who promises to fight for a progressive agenda; and they prefer a moderate over a liberal, 75 percent to 19 percent.”

These are not partisan voters in any normal sense and their numbers seem small enough that they could perhaps be ignored, especially since many of them will not ultimately vote at all. But, actually, it’s likely that they’d decide any truly close election.

Maybe the worst part is that they don’t pay any attention, so any idea you might have of moving them on the issues through good messaging or campaigning is probably doomed to failure. Weakening up Trump is probably the best option available for reaching them, and that process is already underway with a big assist from the president himself.

Personally, I align with Warren on the issues better than any of the other candidates, but I can’t help but pause in the face of numbers like these, since they seem to be a bright blinking-red warning sign that a real progressive is not what the people presently want.