I don’t think your average Democratic primary voter has a particularly sophisticated understanding of presidential politics, but they seem to collectively be searching for a safe choice, or at least someone who won’t further inflame the racial, regional or ideological polarization of the country. Maybe they haven’t noticed that Trump’s rural advantage has probably grown since 2016, but they seem to understand that they can’t just rely on the cities and suburbs to overcome the GOP’s Electoral College advantage. The Democrats are gravitating toward candidates they perceive to be electable, and they base that perception more on who they fear alienating than on who they hope to excite.
They worry about nominating someone too far to the left, or a woman, or a person of color, or someone with age or health related concerns. If someone seems to check all those boxes, well, how about a gay small-town mayor with not a lot of experience? Simply put, there are no candidates that the Democrats feel comfortable with, and that certainly includes Kamala Harris.
Where I agree with Al Giordano is that all the candidates have both real and imagined weaknesses. Where I disagree is that I don’t believe Harris has much of a chance to emerge as someone who is more broadly acceptable to all the various factions of the party than the others. Maybe he’s right to complain that it’s too early to be flooding the zone with Harris’s political obituaries, but I think he grossly overstates her potential appeal in the current political environment. Simply put, she combines too many risk factors, from relative lack of experience, to coastal identity, to race and gender, and I think the primary voters are unlikely to ever perceive her as a safe choice based solely on ideological grounds.
If that were the case, Cory Booker wouldn’t be fighting to qualify for the next debates. Unfortunately, one byproduct of Trump’s effective style of racist politics is that the Democrats are taking identity into account as a mostly negative factor in this cycle. This is probably the primary reason Joe Biden continues to poll so well nationally despite his wretched debate performances and clear signs of his decline.
Michael Bloomberg clearly doesn’t like what he’s seeing from Biden, but he has his own massive identity problems, including his status as a multi-billionaire. He’s most likely to hand the nomination to Warren or even Sanders by denying Biden the votes he needs to go on a winning streak after the Iowa and New Hampshire contests are concluded. But carving up more of the middle seems very unlikely to redound to Harris’s benefit. Voters aren’t really comparing the candidates’ platforms except when they seem perilously far to the left. So Harris can position herself in the middle and not really get a benefit out of it.
I don’t see a pulse to her campaign right now, and I have trouble seeing how she can break through. Her biggest hope is simply that everyone implodes around her at just the right times and in just the right combinations, but that’s like running an inside straight. It can happen, obviously, but few people ever got rich betting on it.
Al Giordano is citing a straw poll of his newsletter subscribers and Michael Bloomberg as evidence of Kamala Harris strength in the primary when shes polling at 4% nationally and low singles in Iowa, struggling for money, doesn’t know why she’s running or why she wants to be president, and sucks at management by allowing two power centers close to her to fight for influence, including her sister? Yeah, what a bunch of crap.
Also, I don’t know if her favorables would tick up later if she won, but they’re currently not good, and she’s left a bad impression. Fewer people are considering her as time has gone on, not more.
She was never my candidate, though I did have her in my initial “pick 3”. But from what I’ve seen, she’s out of the game imo. Come back when you have a reason for running and know what your message will be. Or you can pull a Pete and just dance to the tune of donors and consultants.
She was one of my picks in the beginning and then, and then, she decided to roll in M4A over ten years. Oh goody, and she decided insurance companies were ok. Another goody, I could find a place for insurance companies similar to advantage plans, but why start off with another corporate fuck up? It was an unnecessary complication at this point in time. Anyway, it killed it for me. Warren is delaying it only three years, imagine that. At least for now, but stay tuned. My pick will fuck it up before long too.
I was sure she was going to win. My political instincts are infallible. I’m always wrong. Fortunately, I’m absolutely convinced that Biden is our weakest general election candidate so I guess he’ll romp to victory.
Kamala had her moment in the sun during the confirmation hearings for Justice Boofer last summer. Now, she is overshadowed by about everyone else. No really unique policy positions (or hers haven’t gotten traction in the media), and hasn’t seemed to have that quality that gets people inspired to vote for her.
A conversation with some of my friends (all of us in our mid 30’s) brought up support for progressive policy, but even the policies that Kamala originally championed like teacher pay, have since been coopted into the broader narrative of the primary. She had an impact. But, time to shut the campaign down.
Damn shame if you’re right but I think it’s too early to count her out. I mean, we’re just finishing up the (god-awful) debate stage (to which no-one with any sense pays much attention) and we’re in a very dynamic environment. Things may change in major ways once we get into counting votes.
She just went kaput almost right out of the box. I really don’t think she wants it anyway..Time to just move away.
Her positions were all gonna be well espoused by many other candidates, so her reason for running is unclear, other than apparent total disinterest in being a senator (since 2017!) and no path(?) to being the Guv of CA–which would’ve been the more natural fit for her extensive executive-type experience. Sheesh, all these senators who just can’t wait to get out of there! One would’ve thought these seats the greatest sinecures of all time, but the delusions of grandeur must simply be overwhelming…
A ho hum speaker, but I guess Harris thought, “If Obama could pull this off, why not me?” Also, it’s quite curious that only Dem primary voters spend the campaign seeking the Holy Grail of “electability”—that quality surely doesn’t enter or trouble the minds of Repub primary voters, they simply vote for the most sadistic candidate, since that fits “conservative” ideology most closely. I suppose one would’ve thought Kamala was running for VP, but her early personal attacks on the walking cadaver Uncle Joe (who would’ve been in most need of her) were maybe not the most, um, strategic!
If it is actually true that National Trumpalism is getting stronger, not weaker, in rural America—to which Trumper done nothing but inflict further harm–then the social and democratic rot has gone so deep that this exercise is becoming academic. The failed Constitution is apparently ending up as a suicide pact after all!
But there’s more to selecting a candidate than just issue positions. Electability IS a valid consideration and, related to electability, also demonstrated leadership and competence.
Good call!