In the Democratic Party’s South Carolina primary, about 120,000 people–18.4% of the total voters–turned out to vote for either Tom Steyer, Amy Klobuchar or Pete Buttigieg. All three of those candidates have dropped out since Saturday. Another 38,000, or 7.1 percent, voted for Elizabeth Warren who still remains in the race.
This isn’t really such a big number, as it amounts to about one in four voters who opted for someone other than Biden, Sanders or (mysteriously) Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard. Yet, it matters a great deal how voters like this will break in future states now that their choices are essentially down to Biden, Sanders, and Bloomberg.
Whether Warren stays in or gets out, she’s going to lose support to the others as they appear more viable. Word is that Buttigieg and Klobuchar will officially endorse Biden, and some of Sanders’ supporters are calling on Warren to drop out and endorse Sanders to balance things out. I’m not sure she’d actually prefer Sanders to Biden, but based on the South Carolina exit polls, it’s unlikely that Sanders would benefit form Warren’s withdrawal from the race. She did best with white women, and white women did not support Sanders in South Carolina.
Among non-college educated white women, Sanders and Biden basically split the vote, meaning that this demographic looks like a wash. Among women with college degrees, however, Biden crushed Sanders 40 percent to 15 percent. I think it’s safe to assume that white women who voted for Warren in South Carolina would have broken for Biden over Sanders if she had not been an option. I also see no reason to think this is peculiar to South Carolina.
More than Sanders supporters want to admit, this election is really a pro- vs. anti-Sanders contest, and Sanders is fairly close to being maxed out. But I think he honestly should expect to pull more votes from Buttigieg than from Warren. The reason is basically that young voters who liked Buttigieg’s freshness and youth will probably opt for Sanders over Biden since that is where most of their peers have been from the beginning.
Ideology explains almost nothing in this campaign. Biden did worst in South Carolina with non-college educated voters and that’s where Bernie had his biggest strength. Sanders pulls from Trump’s base more than from liberal-minded progressives, and Biden wins the white professional vote more than the hardhat one. You’d never expect this if you listened to the pundits on your teevee, but it’s true.
Which is why I agree with Oliver Willis’ tweet yesterday that people who are serious about truly knowing what is happening should stop watching cable news. All of it. Listening to it and absorbing what they say will only lead you far down the garden path, and will cause you to make seriously erroneous decisions at this dire point in our democracy. Now is not the time to allow oneself to drift with the tide of the conventional wisdom of the political pundits. They are simply not a reliable source for making judgements.
I think Biden is trying to win it all with endorsements. He picked up at least four today. Wouldn’t it be just lovily if Obama said it out loud? If Clyburn could do it, surely Obama can. Yet that somehow seems like cheating. Sooner or later Joe you got to stand up.
But bless her heart. Warren is still in there.
I guess you got your wish, sort of.
Buttigieg and Klobuchar did indeed endorse Biden. I saw coverage of Biden’s rally where Klobuchar spoke. Not sure this would have happened if Biden had an underwhelming night in South Carolina on Saturday. You’re basically right. This is for the moment a Biden-Sanders-Bloomberg race, and if Bloomberg washes out after the votes are tallied tomorrow night, Just a Biden-Sanders race. Warren wants to stay in, and we’ll see if she keeps running til the bitter end. But it looks like the “not Sanders” camp is effectively rallying around Biden and will push to make sure he eventually ends up the nominee. Sanders is going to have a difficult time breaking beyond the 30% barrier. His base is certainly active, militant, and not above some very aggressive tactics. The message has been divisive. Getting rank and file Democrats to unify behind Sanders is going to be an uphill climb. Sanders and his cadre of activists may be able to bully their way to a nomination for Sanders once all is said and done, but for now I am skeptical. Beyond that bit of “wisdom”? I got nothing. Truth is, we’re in uncharted territory and we have no earthly clue what’s going to go down. We make our best guesses and look at the numbers and go from there.