There is one small part of me that is at least somewhat sympathetic to the idea that the Trump administration would like win a second term in office. My general feeling is that they should recognize that they’re inept and that someone else should step in and stand as the candidate for the Republican Party, but I know that is a lot to ask. In any case, I know political considerations are unseemly (from either side) in the midst of a global pandemic, but I don’t expect people to abandon politics.

In reading through this Politico article, however, it’s hard not to be angry and it’s also hard not to question the administration’s political judgment. Another way of putting this is that Trump and his advisers are putting politics over public health, and that the politics of it isn’t even good. I suppose I could comfort myself that they’ll be punished at the polls for this, but somehow that it only makes it more infuriating.

Begin with the most basic thing. Will racing to reopen the economy result in good outcomes on any level?

We know with certainty that it will increase the infection rate, so without an effective treatment or a vaccine, it will increase the death toll. The virus attaches to cells in the lungs, which is the primary way it kills, but it also attacks cells in the heart and in men’s testes, so simple being infected can cause long term health problems even if it can be treated. This argues for keeping the infection rate low until a vaccine is available. If, however, treatments are found that vastly reduce the lethality of Covid-19,  we might be able to get back to work without too many excess deaths. That would be a better bet if the treatments are found first, rather than operating on the hope that they will be found. On the whole, this is a gamble, and it’s a gamble with people’s lives and health.

The more likely scenario is that we’ll see an upsurge in infections all across the country, including in places like California and New York where strong social distancing policies seem to be working. This will overwhelm hospitals and cause measures that have been relaxed to be re-implemented. It will wipe away gains even in places that have maintained strong preventative policies. Politically, the problem with this is self-explanatory, but it will also destroy any hoped-for economic benefit. People aren’t going to give Trump a pass on mismanagement a second time, and they’re not going to go back to work or to concerts, restaurants and sporting events if it’s obviously unsafe.

It seems to me that Trump is setting himself up to get the worst of all possible outcomes. The public health crisis will worsen while his available excuses will vanish, and the economy won’t restart in the way that he hoped.

Normally, a crisis that confronts the entire country would be an opportunity to reduce partisan differences and tensions. We saw Trump’s poll numbers go up at the beginning of the outbreak precisely because people are looking for leadership and less willing to criticize the leaders they are depending on to keep them safe. But Trump thrives politically on conflict, and his base needs constant feedings of red-meat partisanship to maintain their engagement and enthusiasm. For this reason, and also because Trump simply isn’t capable of anything better, the Republican political advisers think the best bet is to politicize the outbreak.

President Donald Trump and his aides aren’t just weighing coronavirus infection rates as they push for a quick economic restart. They think it’s good politics, too…

…The issue also has become partisan. Those identifying as conservative largely side with Trump’s economic advisers worried about the ongoing harm to the country’s finances and favor a quicker economic restart, while those identifying as liberal largely side with public health officials and urge longer timelines.

“Trump, himself, feels pretty good about the polling in his direction,” said a Republican familiar with the White House’s deliberations. “It’s a winner for Trump if it becomes a partisan issue.”

Predictably, these folks are looking at polls to come to these conclusions, but these polls measure a particular snapshot in time. There seems to be no ability to anticipate how public opinion will change based on actual outcomes.

Hanging over the health data, however, is the politics of the situation. And many of Trump’s political allies and outside advisers believe they have the public increasingly on their side.

Conservative groups have noticed a change in polling in recent weeks when they ask respondents if they want to go back to work, even if they know the outbreak could continue to cause infections or deaths, and if they would be willing to wear protective gear, such as masks and gloves, in order to reopen the country. Some polls saw upticks as large as 20 percentage points of people willing to return to work, even with the caveats, according to said Brandon and others familiar with the polls. The FreedomWorks polling was conducted in suburban House districts in battleground states, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

For one thing, Trump is shaping the shift in public opinion through his messaging. His supporters follow his lead, and he’s actively encouraging his base to protest the social distancing policies. He can move people to support his policies in real time, but if those policies backfire he’ll see more erosion in his support. He could have moved these folks to higher levels of patience, and the polling would reflect that sentiment instead. That would also inoculate him against a lot of criticism if things don’t dramatically improve, but he’s focused on shifting blame for what has already happened rather than shaping the political battlefield for what is likely to come.

Today’s polls mean very little, and there is no substitute for implementing the best available policies. The fatal political flaw here isn’t the idea that the only way to win reelection is to get the economy going, but rather that they can get the economy going simply through will-power rather than through patiently working through the solution. Agitating for poor public health policies isn’t going to add to public or market confidence.

The only thing that can bail out the economy in time for it to benefit Trump’s reelection is a vast reduction in the lethality of the virus. It’s unlikely that a vaccine can be discovered, approved, and distributed widely in time for November, but there’s more hope on the treatment front. The experimental Remdesivir drug has shown some tentative promise, for example, and there are a lot of other potential drugs that are being researched or are in trials. If people stop dying when they get infected, the public will be willing to risk infection. Until that time, the economy is going to be stuck.

I think people generally recognize that Trump did not cause the Covid-19 pandemic and many will forgive mistakes he made at the outset. They know that the economy was humming before the outbreak, and they’ll still give Trump some credit for that. But they’re going to be a lot more judgmental about everything he does from here on out. He’s taking the risk that things won’t go as the experts predict if we don’t keep things locked down. He believes that he can shift blame to governors if the economy is still in the crapper in November. He’s gambling that treatment will arrive to save the day, and that a recovery will be evident when people go to the polls. Mostly, I think he’s decided that keeping on the recommended path will lead to certain defeat because unemployment will be too high, too many commercial enterprises will go out of business, and he won’t get credit for keeping people alive.

So, he’s not going to attempt good governance. He’s going to keep to this incoherent strategy where he pretends to listen to the experts but at the same time encourages his base to reject their advice. He’s going to get a lot of people killed, and it’s not even going to benefit him politically because his path isn’t good for the economy.

Trump is an unnaturally lucky man, but he’s going to need a lot more of it now if he wants to get reelected.