We’ve never had a situation before where a presidential nominee has promised to pick a running mate of a certain gender. Joe Biden has understandable reasons for ruling out any men, but the decision drastically narrowed the field of options. CNN reports that the Covid-19 outbreak may have narrowed it even further.
Several governors who have gained attention on the frontlines of the coronavirus fight are also getting a potential look. Biden has repeatedly shined a spotlight on Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, but Democrats close to him believe at least two others are also seen as possible contenders: Gov. Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico.
But it’s an open question whether a governor would even be able to seriously entertain an offer, given the crushing demands of leading their states through a pandemic and economic collapse. None have been tested on the national stage or put through the rigors of a presidential race and Democrats close to the process believe the status of the coronavirus in each state will be a factor in whether leaders like Whitmer, Raimondo or Lujan Grisham could be picked.
Even Whitmer, who has drawn the most attention because of Michigan’s intense battle with coronavirus, is ultimately seen by many people close to Biden as a longshot. “Yes, she’s incredibly talented, but could she take the job now?” one Biden adviser not involved in the search said.
I confess that this particular consideration had not occurred to me. In general, I think governors make better presidential candidates than members of Congress, and the same is true for running mates. This seems especially true in modern times because Congress has been persistently unpopular for decades now, and a voting record on any contentious topic is likely to limit the potential breadth of any candidate’s appeal. While Washington DC has become completely polarized and ticket-splitting for federal candidates has almost disappeared, we still see blue governors in red states and red governors in blue states on a regular basis.
Meanwhile, governors across the nation are experiencing a surge of polling approval as voters look for leadership in the midst of an unprecedented crisis. Regardless of the cycle, governors are basically mini-presidents who carry out many of the same executive duties as a president, so their experience is more relevant to the job.
Based on these factors, I’d strongly advise Biden to select a governor, but it’s true that we now have to consider the governors’ records on the coronavirus, which can change quickly and unpredictably as states experience new spikes in cases. We also have to worry that even a governor who is popular at home and has a better-than-average record on handling the pandemic will look like their shirking their job if they put their focus on running a national campaign.
This also argues for a later decision point for Biden. A candidate that looks rock-solid today might look hapless and helpless in the fall if their state experiences a major upsurge in Covid-19 cases, or if their economies sputter relative to other states. It’s less risky to make a final assessment in July than in May.
There are some senators who could make a lot of sense for Biden. Elizabeth Warren could help unite the party, while Kamala Harris could boost excitement and help black turnout. Harry Reid has been lobbying for Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada to create excitement and help Latinx turnout. Amy Klobuchar could amplify his brand and have some crossover appeal and strength in key Midwest states.
If Biden wants to look further, he can go for mayors (like Keisha Lance Bottoms of Atlanta who has been recommended by Jim Clyburn) or members of the House (like impeachment manager Val Demings of Florida), and he’s appearing on Thursday with Stacey Abrams who endorsed him on Tuesday. She’s never held a political position higher than Minority Leader of the Georgia House of Representatives, but she ran a compelling race for governor and has boatloads of oratorical skill and charisma.
All of these options must be fully vetted, of course, but only the governors are a serious risk due to the coronavirus. As of today, the pandemic actually gives governors an edge, but it could work against them, too.
Great post Martin. Glad to see so many solid possibilities.
Every day I am dumbfounded how this election could still be competitive. What the hell can 40% of this country be so blind?
They aren’t blind.
They hate the same people the Republican party hates – people they don’t identify with.
As long as those people get hurt worse, they’ll keep smilin’ and keep votin’ Republican.
Enjoyed reading your thoughts on the topic. Thank you for all your analysis. Long time reader but first comment. Here’s some anecdotal perspective from a 32 year old white male “Obama Democrat” in Michigan.
I’ve been relieved to see 72% support in polls for Gov. Whitmer’s handling of the situation. So much attention has been paid to the astroturf protest/trump rallies in our capital. I am definitely concerned that if she were selected, or any other Gov for that matter. It would be viewed as abandonment and opportunism. I gladly voted for her and even met her briefly before she was elected. She is very gracious, well spoken and down to earth. I don’t want her to be selected. It would even rub me the wrong way considering how bad things are here. There is also a risk it would activate more misogynists and right wingers in MI to turnout to vote against her or not vote Dem out of spite. Remember we have Amash running 3rd party here. and this might be the only state where that really matters. There are a lot of people here who can’t stand a woman being in charge. Then imagine that woman leaves you for a better job? Michigan example- the anti Hillary –Bernie/Trump/3rd party voters in 2016 primary and general vs the cakewalk in the primary for Biden this time around. I honestly just don’t think she has enough experience to jump into the VP spot after such a short time as Governor. In my opinion we need her here and we need her to get a 2nd term.
I think it’s crazy that people keep suggesting Elizabeth Warren, strictly because MA has a Republican Gov. I voted for her in the primary and she’d be a fantastic VP or President, but we can’t risk having even one less Dem Senator even for 1 day. We saw how significant it was in 08 when Franken was sidelined by the recount. Also, she’s great in the Senate, she’s too old, too white, can you imagine how often Trump will distract the media and rile up the base with his Pocahontas/socialism attacks? What else….umm MA and DE are too close together. Not being totally serious there, but all signs seem to point towards letting her continue to be a force in the Senate.
Kamala Harris seems to be the obvious choice that checks off most of the boxes. She’s young, as in able to run for president in 4 to 8 years and still be considered young, unlike Warren. (Can’t believe Harris is only 5 years younger than Pence) a well spoken and fierce advocate, a woman of color with Indian and African heritage, child of immigrants, the best political example of the American Dream since Obama, conventionally attractive (this shouldn’t matter but we all know it helps) she is one of the most experienced and capable candidates. To me she just puts off a vibe like she is ready to go day 1. Her willingness to battle Biden in the debate will add to her credibility make both of them look better for teaming up to defeat Trump. And of course, it’s a safe blue state, and on the other side of the country. Let the blue wave roll from coast to coast. Biden can carry the NE and the Midwest, she can cover everything else.
* One longshot exception to the Gov rule — If anything happened to Biden, or if he wanted to fake an injury to bring in a ringer at the convention, could you imagine a Cuomo / Harris ticket? I think NYers would give him a pass and be proud of him. It’s a safe blue state. He has been the national face of anti-Trump competent and compassionate leadership. Landslide potential!
Given that a VP is traditionally chosen because they can deliver their home state I think Whitmer or Abrams are most likely, though a relative unknown from Texas or Florida is possible. I think locals always like their local leadership and will blame their covid troubles on feds.
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